WSOC

[Fk_Pitt]

Lost a tough one 3-2 at #1 FSU.

Outshot them 16-10

Outcornered them 7-3

This team is capable of a deep run.

Maybe due to vballs youth, this is the team most capable of noise this Fall. It’s time to start paying more attention.

 

[ThePanthers]

On the road as well.

It was a good game. They are definitely able to compete. And it's not all the Amanda West show anymore. They have some depth.

 

[JD1976]

On the road as well.

It was a good game. They are definitely able to compete. And it's not all the Amanda West show anymore. They have some depth.

With the NCAA Tourney selection being somewhat regional it seems inevitable that Pitt and PSU will end up in the same region this year. They are the #1 overall seed at the moment (per the Selection Committee teaser rankings that came out last night), but Pitt plays a style that can play with anyone. That would be a fun match up, although one that both sides would probably rather avoid.

 

[pittchagg]

With the NCAA Tourney selection being somewhat regional it seems inevitable that Pitt and PSU will end up in the same region this year. They are the #1 overall seed at the moment (per the Selection Committee teaser rankings that came out last night), but Pitt plays a style that can play with anyone. That would be a fun match up, although one that both sides would probably rather avoid.

I think Pitt would love that matchup. Penn State has a ton of talent, but plays in a weaker conference and has been the undisputed women's soccer top dog in the northeast for decades. Lose to them in the tournament and you’re no different than you are now.

The chance to beat them on the road in the NCAA tournament? And perhaps take a big chunk out of their armor in this region, while maybe putting the thought in some upper level northeast recruits’ minds that, “hey, Pitt has better facilities, an elite training center under construction, is in a better conference and has a national title winning coach. Maybe I go there instead?” You dream for that matchup and opportunity.

 

[Pittnerski]

Outplayed FSU in all honesty. Would’ve been great to grab a tie. But showed flashes of what their potential is

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Lost a tough one 3-2 at #1 FSU.

Outshot them 16-10

Outcornered them 7-3

This team is capable of a deep run.

Maybe due to vballs youth, this is the team most capable of noise this Fall. It’s time to start paying more attention.

They may be capable I guess. However, the men have as good a chance as anyone other than a couple teams of winning it all. This is mostly due to parity but still, if they get in it, they could win it.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

They may be capable I guess. However, the men have as good a chance as anyone other than a couple teams of winning it all. This is mostly due to parity but still, if they get in it, they could win it.

You can't really say that they have as good a chance as almost anyone to win the championship in the same post that you point out that they might not even make the tournament.

Or at least you can't if you want to make any sense.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

You can't really say that they have as good a chance as almost anyone to win the championship in the same post that you point out that they might not even make the tournament.

Or at least you can't if you want to make any sense.

I don’t have any evidence to back this up…but I think it’s harder for a good men’s team to make a run than it is for a good women’s team. There is what I perceive as more parity and athletes in the men’s game that allows for more teams that can be dangerous and knock you off. Chalk holds on the women’s side more often. So I would expect a good Pitt women’s team to get to the sweet 16 and then see where the chips fall. The men’s team could lose in the first round, or go all the way.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I don’t have any evidence to back this up…but I think it’s harder for a good men’s team to make a run than it is for a good women’s team. There is what I perceive as more parity and athletes in the men’s game that allows for more teams that can be dangerous and knock you off. Chalk holds on the women’s side more often. So I would expect a good Pitt women’s team to get to the sweet 16 and then see where the chips fall. The men’s team could lose in the first round, or go all the way.

I don't think that there is any doubt that NCAA men's soccer is deeper with good teams than women's soccer. It's probably that way in most (but not all) sports that the NCAA sponsors both men's and women's divisions in the same sport.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

You can't really say that they have as good a chance as almost anyone to win the championship in the same post that you point out that they might not even make the tournament.

Or at least you can't if you want to make any sense.

Yes I can because the reason they might not make the tournament is because in that scenario, they'd have like 6 losses to Top 10ish teams, some as close games. Pitt can beat anyone but the schedule they play (#1 SOS) is brutal.

 

[JD1976]

I think Pitt would love that matchup. Penn State has a ton of talent, but plays in a weaker conference and has been the undisputed women's soccer top dog in the northeast for decades. Lose to them in the tournament and you’re no different than you are now.

The chance to beat them on the road in the NCAA tournament? And perhaps take a big chunk out of their armor in this region, while maybe putting the thought in some upper level northeast recruits’ minds that, “hey, Pitt has better facilities, an elite training center under construction, is in a better conference and has a national title winning coach. Maybe I go there instead?” You dream for that matchup and opportunity.

I’m not sure there’s anything Pitt can do to take a chunk out of PSU’s armor in the near future. They have a national title coach too (and she has a direct line to the USWNT) and the Big Ten is only going to get stronger with USC and UCLA. The fact is that PSU probably never even looked at most of Pitt’s roster (though I know they had interest in Ellie Coffield) and conversely most of PSU’s roster wasn’t considering Pitt. Take the Katie Scott gal from Erie. Consensus Top 5 national player and Pitt wasn’t even in the ballpark. Waldrum has done an amazing job, and Pitt could certainly beat PSU, but it won’t dent their status as a blue blood in the WSOC landscape.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Yes I can because the reason they might not make the tournament is because in that scenario, they'd have like 6 losses to Top 10ish teams, some as close games. Pitt can beat anyone but the schedule they play (#1 SOS) is brutal.

Like I said, you can unless you want to make sense.

And that's never really a high priority for you.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Like I said, you can unless you want to make sense.

And that's never really a high priority for you.

So if Pitt scheduled RMU and St. Francis instead of Marshall and Gtown, I could say they have a shot of winning the NC but since Vidovich schedules ridiculously strong and lost to excellent teams, they have no shot? Its soccer. They have a lot of talent. They can beat anyone. They were fairly even with Marshall. Dont know what happened vs Gtown.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

So if Pitt scheduled RMU and St. Francis instead of Marshall and Gtown, I could say they have a shot of winning the NC but since Vidovich schedules ridiculously strong and lost to excellent teams, they have no shot? Its soccer. They have a lot of talent. They can beat anyone. They were fairly even with Marshall. Dont know what happened vs Gtown.

They can beat anyone. If for no other reason than they are pretty good and in soccer the best team frequently doesn't win. But the problem isn't that they can't win ONE of those games. The problem is that to be the champion and given how they are going to be seeded, they are going to win FIVE of those games, in a row, to be the champion.

Have you really seen anything so far this year that makes you think that they are going to be able to beat FIVE teams that are as good or better than them, in a row? Really?

Look, it would be great if I was wrong. But you are counting on a team that's longest winning streak so far this season is one (and no, that's not a typo, it's ONE), all of the sudden winning six games in a row, five of which will be against teams seeded higher than them. There isn't even a 1% chance that that is going to happen.

 

[singregardless]

So if Pitt scheduled RMU and St. Francis instead of Marshall and Gtown, I could say they have a shot of winning the NC but since Vidovich schedules ridiculously strong and lost to excellent teams, they have no shot? Its soccer. They have a lot of talent. They can beat anyone. They were fairly even with Marshall. Dont know what happened vs Gtown.

Kyle Linhares happened against Georgetown. I was at that game and Cabral Carter was the only one not gasping for air by the second half.

Linhares shredded us so bad that Thorsen played defense the second half.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

They can beat anyone. If for no other reason than they are pretty good and in soccer the best team frequently doesn't win. But the problem isn't that they can't win ONE of those games. The problem is that to be the champion and given how they are going to be seeded, they are going to win FIVE of those games, in a row, to be the champion.

Have you really seen anything so far this year that makes you think that they are going to be able to beat FIVE teams that are as good or better than them, in a row? Really?

Look, it would be great if I was wrong. But you are counting on a team that's longest winning streak so far this season is one (and no, that's not a typo, it's ONE), all of the sudden winning six games in a row, five of which will be against teams seeded higher than them. There isn't even a 1% chance that that is going to happen.

A couple things.

Their first game will likely be at home vs a mid-major where they will be significantly favored. So they have to win 4. But not really. They only need to draw and advance in PKs. Not saying that's the plan or the best way to do it but its soccer. They could draw some top seed 1-1 and advance in PKs. Marshall had to go to OT to beat Fordham in 2020-21 in their first game then drew Clemson 1-1 and advanced on PKs. They Greece'd their way to a Natty, winning their next 3 games 1-0. That team was way more lucky than good as they were badly outplayed in some of those. This Marshall team is actually really good though.

I am not predicting a Natty. Just saying they have as good of a shot as most teams and a better shot than Pitt volleyball

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

So they have to win 4.

Serious question, do you not know how the NCAA men's soccer tournament works?

We are going to have to play a round of 48 game against a team like you are describing. And then a round of 32 (that's one), and a round of 16 (that's two) and then a quarterfinal (that's three) and then a semifinal (that's four) and then a championship game (for those of your counting at home, that would be five) to win the championship.

They won't need to win four, they will need to win SIX, five of which, barring big upsets, will be against teams seeded higher than they will be.

Like I said, there isn't even a 1% chance that that's going to happen.

 

[Pittnerski]

I think he was conceding that first win to us with the math at 4 wins…

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Serious question, do you not know how the NCAA men's soccer tournament works?

We are going to have to play a round of 48 game against a team like you are describing. And then a round of 32 (that's one), and a round of 16 (that's two) and then a quarterfinal (that's three) and then a semifinal (that's four) and then a championship game (for those of your counting at home, that would be five) to win the championship.

They won't need to win four, they will need to win SIX, five of which, barring big upsets, will be against teams seeded higher than they will be.

Like I said, there isn't even a 1% chance that that's going to happen.

The 48 team thing messed my math up so yes, they have to win or draw (and advance in PKs) 5 + the first easy home win. However, Pitt is not much worse than #1 WVU and possibly even better, for example. Like Sun Belt Champ, UK last year, WVU is running through an easy league though they did beat Marshall in Morgantown. If Pitt played WVU at WVU, we would he a slight underdog. Using WVU as an example, their path to a NC isnt much easier than Pitt's as they'd have to win 4 tough games along with beating the #32 or so team at home in the Round of 32. Heck, that might be Pitt. They could have a difficult 1st game. You say Pitt's chance at a NC is 1%. I dont think its very high but I didnt say it was. Im saying they have a similar chance as anyone because they are good. I'd probably say they have a 5% chance but WVU would have maybe a 10% chance. There is so much parity and the nature of the sport levels the playing field.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I think he was conceding that first win to us with the math at 4 wins…

But that's the thing, I was conceding us the first win when I originally said five in a row. We are going to have to win six to win the championship.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

You say Pitt's chance at a NC is 1%. I dont think its very high but I didnt say it was. Im saying they have a similar chance as anyone because they are good.

They won't have a similar chance to anyone else, because even if you think that all the teams are the same unless there are upsets we are going to have to win three road games in a row against teams as good as us. In reality we are going to have to win three road games against teams that are at least a little better than us, but surely even you have to concede that it is easier for teams to win at home than on the road.

If we have a 75% chance to win in the first round and then a 40% chance to advance on the road against better team and in the final four against better teams that would give us a 0.77% chance to win the championship. Even if you bump that up to 80% (you might be able to at least attempt to make a case for that) and the other games up to 45% (and really, there is no real case for that), that still only improves our championship odds to 1.47%.

We have no where close to a 5% chance to win the championship. Our chances are no where close to what the chances of the best teams will be.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

And again, you are predicting a six game winning streak in a season that we will end the regular season with a season high winning streak of exactly one.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

And again, you are predicting a six game winning streak in a season that we will end the regular season with a season high winning streak of exactly one.

I am not predicting a 6 game winning streak. I dont think we will win it. I am saying a top seed like WVU wont have a much better chance than we do.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I am not predicting a 6 game winning streak. I dont think we will win it. I am saying a top seed like WVU wont have a much better chance than we do.

And I'm pointing out the obvious fact that you are wrong.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

And I'm pointing out the obvious fact that you are wrong.

What percent chance do you think WVU has to win 3 tough home games then the 2 in the College Cup?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

What percent chance do you think WVU has to win 3 tough home games then the 2 in the College Cup?

Probably in the neighborhood of 5-6%.

Or in other words, about eight times greater than ours.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Probably in the neighborhood of 5-6%.

Or in other words, about eight times greater than ours.

And for the record, WVU (or anyone who gets a top couple seed) isn't going to be playing three tough home games. They are going to be playing their first home game against a team that isn't (according to the NCAA) one of the 25 best in the country.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

And for the record, WVU (or anyone who gets a top couple seed) isn't going to be playing three tough home games. They are going to be playing their first home game against a team that isn't (according to the NCAA) one of the 25 best in the country.

They dont seed teams past 16 and do regional matchups so they very well could play us in the Round of 32, which they would only be a very slight favorite. But if not us, they could play a team that legitimately may be the 20th or 25th best team in the country, not by RPI or seeding, but what they actually are. Inotherwords, they are going to have a tough game, partly because they are overrated themselves like Kentucky last year.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Probably in the neighborhood of 5-6%.

Or in other words, about eight times greater than ours.

If we have a 1% chance and they have a 5% chance, you are making my point. Nobody has a good chance of winning it. Its a crap shoot. A 5% chance is really low.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

If we have a 1% chance and they have a 5% chance, you are making my point. Nobody has a good chance of winning it. Its a crap shoot. A 5% chance is really low.

If we have a 1% chance and they have a 5%, then their chances are 400% greater than ours. I’d say that’s significant.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If we have a 1% chance and they have a 5%, then their chances are 400% greater than ours. I’d say that’s significant.

If those are the true percentages, then the math does say its "significant." However, the math also says basically anyone can win it and that's my point.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

If we have a 1% chance and they have a 5%, then their chances are 400% greater than ours. I’d say that’s significant.

It's pretty clear that among (a lot of) other things, he's not really good at math.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

It's pretty clear that among (a lot of) other things, he's not really good at math.

The math tells me that no one has a good chance of winning it. Pitt doesn't have to beat a bunch of dominant, impossible teams and that was my point

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

The math tells me that no one has a good chance of winning it. Pitt doesn't have to beat a bunch of dominant, impossible teams and that was my point

Admit it, you're the kind of guy that in a "normal" year thinks that there are four or five teams that have at least a 30-40% chance to win the championship.

After all, that's how you know the teams are good.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Admit it, you're the kind of guy that in a "normal" year thinks that there are four or five teams that have at least a 30-40% chance to win the championship.

After all, that's how you know the teams are good.

No, but in college basketball, you sometimes have dominant teams with a 30% or higher chance to win it.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

No, but in college basketball, you sometimes have dominant teams with a 30% or higher chance to win it.

Rarely, sure.

Of course you understand with soccer being a much lower scoring game there has never been a team with a greater than 30% chance to win the men's soccer championship in anything even remotely resembling the way the tournament is now.

In fact there's never been one even close to that. Probably never been one even half of that.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Rarely, sure.

Of course you understand with soccer being a much lower scoring game there has never been a team with a greater than 30% chance to win the men's soccer championship in anything even remotely resembling the way the tournament is now.

In fact there's never been one even close to that. Probably never been one even half of that.

Which is why I said Pitt had as good of a chance as anyone, which I didnt mean literally but as a figure of speech since there are like 20 teams who have a realistic chance of winning it

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Which is why I said Pitt had as good of a chance as anyone, which I didnt mean literally but as a figure of speech since there are like 20 teams who have a realistic chance of winning it

Yeah, except they obviously don't.

I mean if you really don't understand that a 5% chance is much greater than a 1% chance then sure, you might think that. You be completely wrong, but you could think that.