If you’ll forgive my intrusion, I saw Wisconsin mentioned. UW typically schedules tough in the noncon. Last year, they lost to TN, @Prov, and @AZ, but also beat Marquette, and UVa and SMU in a holiday tournament. That gives you all kinds of leeway. The risk of this type of scheduling is losing them all. MSU almost had this happen to them, but then blew out Baylor in their last opportunity.
The point about conference strength isn’t wrong. I didn’t realize the weakness (perceived or real) of the ACC. People like me only look at the strength at the top which is championship worthy. The B10 may not get a single team to the second weekend, but there’s currently 15 teams #52 or higher on Torvik. That makes a .500 record in conference pretty safe (assuming a one or two noncon Q2 or better wins).
I think you’re right to want at least one of the next three - today may be the best chance, because the other two are true road games. UW had its clunker on Monday, so I won’t say they’re due for that, but I think you’re favored for a reason.
