A few thoughts while we all count down the minutes until kickoff...
- At some point, Pitt is going to lose a game this season. It might be tonight. It might be another week. But it's going to happen, and there's a decent chance it will happen more than once.
- That doesn't change anything that the Panthers have already accomplished. The 4-0 non-conference record, the 6-0 start, the bounce-back from last season's 3-9, the complete reversal on offensive philosophy from Pat Narduzzi - it has all been pretty monumental, and this team has already done things that people will talk about for a long time.
- But they've also been living on the edge. The two fourth-quarter comebacks and the Cal game could have obviously gone either way; the fact that all three went Pitt's way is why the Panthers are 6-0 - but it's also worth noting that the difference between 6-0 and 3-3 has been pretty slim. You can only walk that thin line for so long; eventually it's going to catch up to you.
- That is, it will eventually catch up to you if you keep doing it. If Pitt keeps finding itself in these situations, eventually they're going to stumble. Eventually they're not going to get Cincinnati to take a penalty on a Pitt fourth-down attempt. Eventually they're not going to get Daejon Reynolds to make a ridiculous catch in triple-coverage. Eventually they're not going to get Cal's kicker to miss a 40-yard field goal (although I still think Pitt could have overcome that one if he had made it).
- Eventually, your luck runs out.
- So the thing Pitt needs to do more than anything else is, stop relying on luck. I don't mean to say that Pitt lucked its way into those three wins; the players all made plays and created their own luck. But that can only get you so far. At some point, you need to be the better team for the better part of 60 minutes.
- I think Pitt was that in the win at North Carolina. Every time UNC scored, Pitt had an answer, and as a result, the Panthers never really let the Tar Heels get any momentum that they could use to take over the game. That's the kind of performance Pitt is going to need more of in the final six games.
- And that starts tonight. Tonight, Pitt has a million-dollar opportunity to control a game for the better part of 60 minutes. A chance to show that the defensive improvement in the Cal game was not a one-off and that the offensive struggles were. There's a formula for how this Pitt team can win games, and while I called the Cincinnati, WVU and Cal wins "luck," there's also a blueprint in there, from how the offense has to operate to how the defense has to execute.
- Simply put, Eli Holstein has to take what the defense gives him, and Pitt's offense has to attack. It's more complex than that, of course, and Pitt will need a lot of outstanding individual performances to win more than three of the final six games. But that's the most empirical way I can put it: Take what's there on offense and attack on defense.
- I said "to win more than three of the final six games" because I see a sort of split in the rest of the schedule. As a whole, the final six games look tougher than the first six. Within that hole, I think there's one trio of Syracuse/Virginia/Boston College and another SMU/Clemson/Louisville, with the latter three being tougher than the former. That doesn't mean Syracuse/Virginia/Boston College will be easy, but those are closer to the "winnable" column than the other three.
- Along those lines, I have talked myself into thinking that 9-3 might be the floor for this team. They should be able to get at least three wins out of the remaining schedule; if they can do that, then the other three - presumably SMU, Clemson and Louisville - will be the proving ground to see where the ceiling really is. And even if they can't win any of those three, taking care of business against Syracuse, Virginia and Boston College puts them at 9-3, which I would say is very good (even if it's a bit deflating after the 6-0 start).
- It really has been a heck of a ride so far, and given the preponderance of sub-six predictions for Pitt's win total, I would say the season has already exceeded many people's predictions. I'm also the first to say that predictions and expectations change as a season unfolds, and what was considered a good season in August might look a bit different when you start 6-0.
- The other thing that changes when you start 6-0 is how much each game means. Call it pressure (it is), intensity (same) or opportunity (also accurate): the more you win, the more there is riding on each game. And while the height of the other shoe climbs with each win, bringing with it the fear of what it will feel like when that shoe drops, so too does the excitement.
I mean, think about it: Pitt is 6-0 and ranked No. 19 in the country. If the Panthers win tonight, they'll be 7-0 for the fourth time since 1938, and pending some of the games this weekend, they'll creep closer to the top 15. You could make a case that a 7-0 power-conference team should be in the top 15, regardless of what happens around them; that's another conversation, but you know what's great?
The fact that we're having this conversation. The fact that we're watching the polls. The fact that we're keeping an eye on other teams. National games have consequences for Pitt, and Pitt's games have consequences for the national scene.
Maybe it's the remnants of the 3-9 season talking or maybe I'm just bored sitting around all afternoon, but it's a pretty good position to be in.
- My prediction for tonight: Pitt 38, Syracuse 28
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