1. Well, if the cream is rising to the top at the midpoint of the season, that cream appears to be North Carolina, at least in the Coastal Division. The Tar Heels are 6-1 overall and, more importantly, 3-0 in the ACC. That’s a huge start in conference play, and all three games were division games (Virginia Tech, Miami and the win over Duke on Saturday).
2. UNC’s Achilles heel has seemed to be its defense, especially when we all watched Appalachian State put 61 points on the Tar Heels and Notre Dame, who averages 25.6 points per game, dropped 45 on them. But UNC has been better in conference games, allowing an average of 23 points per game. The Tar Heels are last in the ACC in overall scoring defense, but when the numbers are narrowed to just conference games, they are No. 4. That’s a big difference, and while you might question the competition they’ve faced, I would ask whether you think Pitt’s offense is a big step up from any of the UNC’s schedule.
3. The biggest thing UNC has going for it, of course, is at quarterback (expect this to be a recurring theme). Drake Maye leads the ACC in passing yards (2,283; nobody else has more than 1,665) and passing touchdowns (24; nobody else has more than 17) and he’s got the second-fewest interceptions with three. He’s a difference-maker with some really good receivers.
4. Over and over and over again, we’re reminded again how important that position is. We saw it last year when Pitt’s best season in 40 years coincided with one of the best quarterback performances in school history. We see it every week in college football when quarterbacks are the separating factor. And we’re seeing it at Pitt this season where the quarterback play has been sub-standard.
5. Let’s ask that question: has the quarterback play been sub-standard? Below average? Just okay? It’s somewhere in there and probably some combination of all of those. However you want to term it, Kedon Slovis hasn’t been good enough through the first half of the season.
6. That’s a generalization, but it’s the reality. Five touchdown passes in 4.5 games played doesn’t cut it. Only four of those touchdowns were actually of consequence. Only three of them were thrown outside the fourth quarter of the Georgia Tech game. That’s not good enough, and it presents the biggest thing Pitt had to work on during the off week.
7. There are a bunch of things I’m probably going to repeat a lot this week. It actually started on the Morning Pitt today (and a little bit last Friday) and I’m going to keep hammering these things, so when we get to Saturday’s game, I can either take a victory lap for putting these stats at the forefront or you can tell me that I wasted a lot of time. Either one works for me. I just like to know that someone’s listening.
8. Here’s the first: Kedon Slovis needs to spend less time in the pocket. Put another way, he needs to get rid of the ball quickly. According to Pro Football Focus, when Slovis spends less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket - when he throws the ball in less than 2.5 seconds - he completes 77.9% of his passes. Compare that to when Slovis holds the ball longer than 2.5 seconds: 48.1% completion.
9. And Slovis isn’t just throwing short, quick passes behind the line of scrimmage to account for that near-80% completion rate. He is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt and 11.8 yards per completion when throwing in less than 2.5 seconds. Sure, when he holds the ball longer, he averages more yards per completion - 13.8 - but the yards per attempt when Slovis stays in the pocket longer dips to 6.6.
10. To me, as someone who’s on the outside looking in and with no real knowledge of what they’re saying or seeing in the quarterback room, it seems simple: Get rid of the ball quickly. And if Slovis isn’t processing the information quick enough to make throws in that window, then Frank Cignetti has to make it part of the scheme. A coordinator can hasten the pace of the offense, and I think Cignetti has to do that.
11. I don’t necessarily mean going fast in terms of tempo, although we have seen that, too, in the last few weeks. Against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, Pitt seemed to try to push the tempo a bit. It wasn’t a full-blown hurry-up offense, but the Panthers were getting back to the line of scrimmage without a total huddle, so I’ll count it.
12. Here’s the next thing I’m going to keep repeating: Gavin Bartholomew has to get the ball more. I typically push back when fans clamor for one guy to be more involved, but if your clamoring is for El Barto, then count me among your many.
13. It’s just undeniable: good things happen when Bartholomew gets the ball. He has caught 14-of-17 targets for 229 yards and two touchdowns and six more first downs; only four Power Five tight ends with at least 15 targets this season have a higher catch rate, and the NFL quarterback rating on Bartholomew’s 14-of-17/229/2 stat line is 158.0. A perfect QB rating is 158.3.
14. I wonder if Bartholomew could be used in different ways. I’ve talked before about the types of routes he’s running; his average depth of target this season is 7.6 yards, which is a huge increase over last year’s aDot of 1.8. But I’m also interest in where he’s lining up. Last season, he spent a lot of time in the backfield - 193 of his 489 offensive snaps, or 39.4%, according to PFF. This season, he has lined up in the backfield for just two snaps, but he has been in-line for 249 of 282 offensive snaps - 88.3%. That’s more than double the percentage of in-line snaps he took last season (200 out of 489, or 40.9%).
15. I know Bartholomew is the top tight end, so it makes sense for him to line up in-line. But perhaps Karter Johnson could take some of those snaps; he’s already taking 84.6% of his snaps there, so perhaps both tight ends could be on the field together with Bartholomew working out of the backfield. That might open more opportunities for wheel routes and passes in the flat, where he flourished last season.
16. Here’s another one I’m going to repeat a lot this week: the biggest thing Konata Mumpfield is missing right now is a breakout game. I think he has played well, but he hasn’t emerged as the No. 1 receiver the way many expected him to, and I think what’s missing is that big game. I thought he might be due for it after making three strong catches - including his lone touchdown on the season - at Western Michigan, but it hasn’t come. He did set season highs for catches and yards against Georgia Tech - 7 receptions, 75 yards - but he hasn’t had that really big game yet.
17. That said, I think it’s on the way, and this week seems like as good an option as any. Last year at Akron, his stat line after five games was 22/244/4 - pretty close to his current five-game line of 25/260/1. But in game six last season, Mumpfield blew up. He caught 6-of-6 targets for 160 yards and two touchdowns, and then he caught 10 for 109 the next week. He needs to have that kind of week (or weeks) sometime soon for Pitt.
18. Can it happen this week? That’s tough to predict. Louisville has only allowed two 100-yard games to opposing receivers this season: Florida State’s Johnny Wilson caught 7-of-9 targets for 149 yards and two touchdowns and Boston College’s Zay Flowers caught 5-of-6 for 151 and two scores. Flowers and Wilson are two of the best receivers in the ACC this season - Flowers leads the conference in receptions, yards and touchdowns - and I’m not sure that Mumpfield is on that level yet. But I do think a breakout game is coming.
19. We made it pretty far here without talking about the defense, but I think that’s because so much of this season - and the remaining six games - rides on the offense improving. But when it comes to the defense, I think the secondary has been good and the linebackers are improving. The line needs to create more pressure, though; that’s what’s been missing from that unit. If the pressure improves from the front four, I think the defense will be good enough to give Pitt a chance to win in most of the remaining games.
20. Speaking of those remaining games, Pitt’s currently got two ranked teams on the schedule: No. 14 Syracuse and No. 22 North Carolina. I still come back to what I’ve said a bunch of times: there’s nobody scary, nobody unbeatable among the remaining six opponents. Pitt truly can control its own fate. But there are clear and present issues that the coaching staff and the players need to clean up. The Coastal is still there for the taking - Jim even predicted a Pitt title last week - but a few of these things need to get fixed.
2. UNC’s Achilles heel has seemed to be its defense, especially when we all watched Appalachian State put 61 points on the Tar Heels and Notre Dame, who averages 25.6 points per game, dropped 45 on them. But UNC has been better in conference games, allowing an average of 23 points per game. The Tar Heels are last in the ACC in overall scoring defense, but when the numbers are narrowed to just conference games, they are No. 4. That’s a big difference, and while you might question the competition they’ve faced, I would ask whether you think Pitt’s offense is a big step up from any of the UNC’s schedule.
3. The biggest thing UNC has going for it, of course, is at quarterback (expect this to be a recurring theme). Drake Maye leads the ACC in passing yards (2,283; nobody else has more than 1,665) and passing touchdowns (24; nobody else has more than 17) and he’s got the second-fewest interceptions with three. He’s a difference-maker with some really good receivers.
4. Over and over and over again, we’re reminded again how important that position is. We saw it last year when Pitt’s best season in 40 years coincided with one of the best quarterback performances in school history. We see it every week in college football when quarterbacks are the separating factor. And we’re seeing it at Pitt this season where the quarterback play has been sub-standard.
5. Let’s ask that question: has the quarterback play been sub-standard? Below average? Just okay? It’s somewhere in there and probably some combination of all of those. However you want to term it, Kedon Slovis hasn’t been good enough through the first half of the season.
6. That’s a generalization, but it’s the reality. Five touchdown passes in 4.5 games played doesn’t cut it. Only four of those touchdowns were actually of consequence. Only three of them were thrown outside the fourth quarter of the Georgia Tech game. That’s not good enough, and it presents the biggest thing Pitt had to work on during the off week.
7. There are a bunch of things I’m probably going to repeat a lot this week. It actually started on the Morning Pitt today (and a little bit last Friday) and I’m going to keep hammering these things, so when we get to Saturday’s game, I can either take a victory lap for putting these stats at the forefront or you can tell me that I wasted a lot of time. Either one works for me. I just like to know that someone’s listening.
8. Here’s the first: Kedon Slovis needs to spend less time in the pocket. Put another way, he needs to get rid of the ball quickly. According to Pro Football Focus, when Slovis spends less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket - when he throws the ball in less than 2.5 seconds - he completes 77.9% of his passes. Compare that to when Slovis holds the ball longer than 2.5 seconds: 48.1% completion.
9. And Slovis isn’t just throwing short, quick passes behind the line of scrimmage to account for that near-80% completion rate. He is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt and 11.8 yards per completion when throwing in less than 2.5 seconds. Sure, when he holds the ball longer, he averages more yards per completion - 13.8 - but the yards per attempt when Slovis stays in the pocket longer dips to 6.6.
10. To me, as someone who’s on the outside looking in and with no real knowledge of what they’re saying or seeing in the quarterback room, it seems simple: Get rid of the ball quickly. And if Slovis isn’t processing the information quick enough to make throws in that window, then Frank Cignetti has to make it part of the scheme. A coordinator can hasten the pace of the offense, and I think Cignetti has to do that.
11. I don’t necessarily mean going fast in terms of tempo, although we have seen that, too, in the last few weeks. Against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, Pitt seemed to try to push the tempo a bit. It wasn’t a full-blown hurry-up offense, but the Panthers were getting back to the line of scrimmage without a total huddle, so I’ll count it.
12. Here’s the next thing I’m going to keep repeating: Gavin Bartholomew has to get the ball more. I typically push back when fans clamor for one guy to be more involved, but if your clamoring is for El Barto, then count me among your many.
13. It’s just undeniable: good things happen when Bartholomew gets the ball. He has caught 14-of-17 targets for 229 yards and two touchdowns and six more first downs; only four Power Five tight ends with at least 15 targets this season have a higher catch rate, and the NFL quarterback rating on Bartholomew’s 14-of-17/229/2 stat line is 158.0. A perfect QB rating is 158.3.
14. I wonder if Bartholomew could be used in different ways. I’ve talked before about the types of routes he’s running; his average depth of target this season is 7.6 yards, which is a huge increase over last year’s aDot of 1.8. But I’m also interest in where he’s lining up. Last season, he spent a lot of time in the backfield - 193 of his 489 offensive snaps, or 39.4%, according to PFF. This season, he has lined up in the backfield for just two snaps, but he has been in-line for 249 of 282 offensive snaps - 88.3%. That’s more than double the percentage of in-line snaps he took last season (200 out of 489, or 40.9%).
15. I know Bartholomew is the top tight end, so it makes sense for him to line up in-line. But perhaps Karter Johnson could take some of those snaps; he’s already taking 84.6% of his snaps there, so perhaps both tight ends could be on the field together with Bartholomew working out of the backfield. That might open more opportunities for wheel routes and passes in the flat, where he flourished last season.
16. Here’s another one I’m going to repeat a lot this week: the biggest thing Konata Mumpfield is missing right now is a breakout game. I think he has played well, but he hasn’t emerged as the No. 1 receiver the way many expected him to, and I think what’s missing is that big game. I thought he might be due for it after making three strong catches - including his lone touchdown on the season - at Western Michigan, but it hasn’t come. He did set season highs for catches and yards against Georgia Tech - 7 receptions, 75 yards - but he hasn’t had that really big game yet.
17. That said, I think it’s on the way, and this week seems like as good an option as any. Last year at Akron, his stat line after five games was 22/244/4 - pretty close to his current five-game line of 25/260/1. But in game six last season, Mumpfield blew up. He caught 6-of-6 targets for 160 yards and two touchdowns, and then he caught 10 for 109 the next week. He needs to have that kind of week (or weeks) sometime soon for Pitt.
18. Can it happen this week? That’s tough to predict. Louisville has only allowed two 100-yard games to opposing receivers this season: Florida State’s Johnny Wilson caught 7-of-9 targets for 149 yards and two touchdowns and Boston College’s Zay Flowers caught 5-of-6 for 151 and two scores. Flowers and Wilson are two of the best receivers in the ACC this season - Flowers leads the conference in receptions, yards and touchdowns - and I’m not sure that Mumpfield is on that level yet. But I do think a breakout game is coming.
19. We made it pretty far here without talking about the defense, but I think that’s because so much of this season - and the remaining six games - rides on the offense improving. But when it comes to the defense, I think the secondary has been good and the linebackers are improving. The line needs to create more pressure, though; that’s what’s been missing from that unit. If the pressure improves from the front four, I think the defense will be good enough to give Pitt a chance to win in most of the remaining games.
20. Speaking of those remaining games, Pitt’s currently got two ranked teams on the schedule: No. 14 Syracuse and No. 22 North Carolina. I still come back to what I’ve said a bunch of times: there’s nobody scary, nobody unbeatable among the remaining six opponents. Pitt truly can control its own fate. But there are clear and present issues that the coaching staff and the players need to clean up. The Coastal is still there for the taking - Jim even predicted a Pitt title last week - but a few of these things need to get fixed.
