3/11 NET update

[whirlybird optio]

NET throws resumes out the window, yes. UNC would be a slight favorite over us on a neutral court. Would we be favored over anyone ahead of us? That's essentially what NET mimics.

We would be favored over Liberty on a neutral court. Other mid majors. So, it doesn’t always work out.

Pitt is in really good shape. So long as we are in 75% of all mock brackets I feel very confident, and right now we are in 99%. There’s just not much season left and exceedingly few teams which can realistically make a push.

 

[JS School]

Watching Pitt dribble out the clock last night with no GT defenders on the defensive end of the court, I couldn't help wondering if Pitt shouldn't go down and score to make it a double digit win. I have no idea how much difference that would make to the little men and their computer programs.

On the other hand, the day sportsmanship is cast aside in order to worry about affecting some unknown algorithm is probably the day I quit watching college basketball.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

We would be favored over Liberty on a neutral court. Other mid majors. So, it doesn’t always work out.

Pitt is in really good shape. So long as we are in 75% of all mock brackets I feel very confident, and right now we are in 99%. There’s just not much season left and exceedingly few teams which can realistically make a push.

I should have said P6s. Mid-majors are higher due to blowouts.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

They didn't blow GT out. Simple. We all hate it but scoring margins matter and Pitt has blown very few teams out including some of the cupcakes. Although we beat them by big margins, they werent big enough margins. Needed some 40 or 50 point wins early.

On the contrary, they only matter to stupid algorithms and math guys.

Regarding Vegas, they look at a lot more than stats when assigning spreads to games. NET looks at nothing but historical stats.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

NET ranks teams, not resumes. Its my belief the NCAA should be ranking resumes.

For the 4,738th time, the NCAA has many different metrics that they use. Some, like NET, ranking teams based on quality. Others, like SOR, rank teams based on their resumes. The NCAA does not select teams for the tournament based on NET, and it does not seed the tournament based on NET.

Look no further than this past Sunday, when the NCAA told you that as of that moment the team with the 8th best NET wasn't even a top four seed.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I couldn't help wondering if Pitt shouldn't go down and score to make it a double digit win. I have no idea how much difference that would make to the little men and their computer programs.

Two points in one of 28 games would make so little difference you'd need a microscope to see it.

 

[UPitt '89]

Two points in one of 28 games would make so little difference you'd need a microscope to see it.

But it WOULD have helped any of us that took Pitt -9.5.

 

[JS School]

For the 4,738th time, the NCAA has many different metrics that they use. Some, like NET, ranking teams based on quality. Others, like SOR, rank teams based on their resumes. The NCAA does not select teams for the tournament based on NET, and it does not seed the tournament based on NET.

Look no further than this past Sunday, when the NCAA told you that as of that moment the team with the 8th best NET wasn't even a top four seed.

I agree. Except that NET seems to be all anybody wants to talk about, including people who should know better.

 

[SteelBowl70]

The so-called bracketologists are clearly drunk on NET. I agree that it’s not everything but I also believe that Pitt’s placement will be influenced by NET to some extent and not in a positive way.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

On the contrary, they only matter to stupid algorithms and math guys.

Regarding Vegas, they look at a lot more than stats when assigning spreads to games. NET looks at nothing but historical stats.

Yeah Vegas cares about recent results. Which is smart if youre trying to predict results (or predict how people will bet I suppose)

 

[FireballZ]

Clemson had their starters still in doing windmill dunks up 20 with 90 seconds left on CUSE tonight. Like it or not, that's the NET impact.

 

[Fredact]

Here's a scenario that shows how stupid the NET is: It's concievable that Pitt could go down to Miami, and lose by a small margin. As a result, Miami (which is hovering right around 30 in the NET, the cut off for Q1 wins at home) could fall a little because they didn't run up the score, and Miami could fall out of the top 30. The end result, would be that Pitt would get a Q1 loss, and at the same time lose a Q1 win!!

 

[mike10003]

UVA drops from 15 to 21 with the BC loss

Clemson rises from 82 to 75 with the blowout Cuse win, putting our home loss back into Q2 territory

 

[SteelBowl70]

UVA dropped 6 to 21 after big BC loss
Clemson back to 75 by running it up on Syracuse making that a Q2 loss
UNC held at 48 squeaking by ND away
Pitt and Miami unchanged (53 and 27)
NC state big home win over Wake didn’t move the needle for them (still 37) and Wake only dropped one to 81 keeping that home win a Q3.
Cuse dropped 9 to 108 but that doesn’t impact our Q2 road win or upcoming Q3 home game. ND (196) away is a Q3.
BC up to 167. If they get up to 160, that win becomes a Q3. Equating a BC home win with #344 Alabama State is absurd but that’s how the quads are setup.

Quad splits are 5-3, 2-4, 3-0, 10-1

 

[MTkeeper23]

These quad splits are really dumb and not aligned with solid math.

There is little difference between the 75th and 76th ranked net team, yet one is a Q2 and the other a Q3. Whereas 31st and 75th are both Q2. That makes no sense. The Q1/2/3/4 rankings should have some sort of weighted average where beating the 31st ranked team is worth more than beating the 75th ranked team. Similarly, you can beat the #1 team away from home and it's Q1 and the same as beating the #30 team at home.

If Team A has 4 Q2 wins over the 40/45/47/50 teams and Team B has 4 over the 60/65/70/75 teams, it looks the exact same on paper but Team A clearly beat better teams.

Then again, the NET rankings are stupid as well, so perhaps they cancel each other out.

 

[SteelBowl70]

These quad splits are really dumb and not aligned with solid math.

There is little difference between the 75th and 76th ranked net team, yet one is a Q2 and the other a Q3. Whereas 31st and 75th are both Q2. That makes no sense. The Q1/2/3/4 rankings should have some sort of weighted average where beating the 31st ranked team is worth more than beating the 75th ranked team. Similarly, you can beat the #1 team away from home and it's Q1 and the same as beating the #30 team at home.

If Team A has 4 Q2 wins over the 40/45/47/50 teams and Team B has 4 over the 60/65/70/75 teams, it looks the exact same on paper but Team A clearly beat better teams.

Then again, the NET rankings are stupid as well, so perhaps they cancel each other out.

No clue how the boundaries are set but you are right. When Miami was 31, beating them at home was a Q2 as was winning at 16-11 Ohio university who was 135.

 

[Protes]

At this point, we know what "NET" stands for. "Not Exactly Trustworthy."

What a ridiculous way of assessing teams.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Clemson had their starters still in doing windmill dunks up 20 with 90 seconds left on CUSE tonight. Like it or not, that's the NET impact.

Did they leave their starters in to run it up? If so, that's fantastic......and also terrible but necessary for NET

 

[mike10003]

Didn't watch any of the game, but looking at the ESPN play by play, Tyson, Hunter, Hall, and Galloway, who are all starters, are all making baskets from like the entire 2nd half down to one minute remaining lol

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Didn't watch any of the game, but looking at the ESPN play by play, Tyson, Hunter, Hall, and Galloway, who are all starters, are all making baskets from like the entire 2nd half down to one minute remaining lol

They also beat FSU by 40 so maybe Brownell understands NET. Literally no one else does besides us and that's shocking to me. I hear these TV idiots all the time saying they dont understand it. Its easy. Blow people out.

 

[UPitt '89]

They also beat FSU by 40 so maybe Brownell understands NET. Literally no one else does besides us and that's shocking to me. I hear these TV idiots all the time saying they dont understand it. Its easy. Blow people out.

For someone who "understands NET" .... he has a pretty awful NET for a team that is 20-8/12-5.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

For someone who "understands NET" .... he has a pretty awful NET for a team that is 20-8/12-5.

You cant control everything. If he left starters in late vs Syr, FSU, it shows he understands you need to blow people out.

It is a bit laughable to have your NET go up by 7 this late just for winning a home game vs Syracuse

 

[SteelBowl70]

Michigan beats Rutgers on the road and goes up 9 from 61 to 52. USC beats Colorado on the road and goes from 54 to 49. This pushes Pitt down 2 more rungs just ahead of Penn State who is now 56 after winning at OSU who is still 71 and ahead of both Clemson (who dropped to 76 making that pass a Q3 for today) and Wake who is 80. Penn State road win qualifies as a Q1.

The 5 spot fall this week correlates to a drop in seeding in bracketmatix where Pitt yesterday was in the first 4 bye slot and USC was the last team in. Only 6 teams with higher NET rankings have more road wins than Pitt.

 

[Blair_45]

The NET is dumb we all can agree on that. The bottom line is win these next 2 games against Syracuse at home and at Notre Dame next week and you are no questions asked in the NCCA Tournament and are playing at Miami next Saturday for the ACC regular season championship.

 

[SteelBowl70]

The NET is dumb we all can agree on that. The bottom line is win these next 2 games against Syracuse at home and at Notre Dame next week and you are no questions asked in the NCCA Tournament and are playing at Miami next Saturday for the ACC regular season championship.

Yes - it seems like Pitt’s tournament started after the VT loss. Win 3 to advance. Otherwise play yourself back in at Miami or at the ACCT. I guess we this years’ version of ND who tied for second place last year at 15-5 and went to Dayton after losing in the ACCT quarters.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Michigan beats Rutgers on the road and goes up 9 from 61 to 52. USC beats Colorado on the road and goes from 54 to 49. This pushes Pitt down 2 more rungs just ahead of Penn State who is now 56 after winning at OSU who is still 71 and ahead of both Clemson (who dropped to 76 making that pass a Q3 for today) and Wake who is 80. Penn State road win qualifies as a Q1.

The 5 spot fall this week correlates to a drop in seeding in bracketmatix where Pitt yesterday was in the first 4 bye slot and USC was the last team in. Only 6 teams with higher NET rankings have more road wins than Pitt.

The net loves blowouts, and especially quad 1 road blowouts. And Michigan and USC got them yesterday (although I guess Colorado is a quad 2).

We are going to have bad computer numbers (unless we win out). That always makes you a little nervous for sure. ND last year is a good comp. 15-5 and went to Dayton.

8-10 in Quad 1/2 games for ND last year, 15-5 ACC, and 43 in NET

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The net loves blowouts, and especially quad 1 road blowouts. And Michigan and USC got them yesterday (although I guess Colorado is a quad 2).

We are going to have bad computer numbers (unless we win out). That always makes you a little nervous for sure. ND last year is a good comp. 15-5 and went to Dayton.

8-10 in Quad 1/2 games for ND last year, 15-5 ACC, and 43 in NET

So since Jan 11, we have gone 9-2 and gone up 10 spots. Michigan beats Rutgers and goes up 9 spots overnight. This is my first year with NET and I am completely shocked they are still using this and there isnt outrage by everyone.

 

[whirlybird optio]

So since Jan 11, we have gone 9-2 and gone up 10 spots. Michigan beats Rutgers and goes up 9 spots overnight. This is my first year with NET and I am completely shocked they are still using this and there isnt outrage by everyone.

I still have no clue how much it matters. Rutgers had a Net in the 80s and got in.

I really don’t think the ACC will get less than 5 teams. No way. And a team like UNC or Clemson really can’t catch us.

 

[Protes]

I still have no clue how much it matters. Rutgers had a Net in the 80s and got in.

I really don’t think the ACC will get less than 5 teams. No way. And a team like UNC or Clemson really can’t catch us.

Better hope neither of them, or any other ACC on the outside looking in, wins the ACC Tourney.

 

[JS School]

I'm starting to like the fact that NET is obviously ridiculous. It makes it more likely to be disregarded. If it was only slightly unfair the committee may not take much notice and weigh it more heavily.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Pitt moved up 1 from 55 to 54 swapping places with Charleston. VCU up 6 to 69 beating 14-15 Richmond at home by 15 and Xavier jumped 8 to 25 with a 22 point road win at 12 loss Seton Hall. Clemson up to 74 which makes that home loss a Q2. I’m surprised there is still this much movement. Big East is overvalued by NET.

 

[WillFerrell]

Pitt moved up 1 from 55 to 54 swapping places with Charleston. VCU up 6 to 69 beating 14-15 Richmond at home by 15 and Xavier jumped 8 to 25 with a 22 point road win at 12 loss Seton Hall. Clemson up to 74 which makes that home loss a Q2. I’m surprised there is still this much movement. Big East is overvalued by NET.

The NET loves the Big East. It’s crazy.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

Pitt moved up 1 from 55 to 54 swapping places with Charleston. VCU up 6 to 69 beating 14-15 Richmond at home by 15 and Xavier jumped 8 to 25 with a 22 point road win at 12 loss Seton Hall. Clemson up to 74 which makes that home loss a Q2. I’m surprised there is still this much movement. Big East is overvalued by NET.

Big East and Big 10 - Both Overvalued

 

[WillFerrell]

Big East and Big 10 - Both Overvalued

and lets throw in the Mountain West while we are at it.

rated higher than acc as well.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I feel like NET (or the bracketologists) are watching every Q3/4 game of ours intently hoping we lose so they can drop us

 

[Pittisit4me]

Big East and Big 10 - Both Overvalued

I all but guarantee that the Big 10 will have all its teams knocked out of the NCAA Tournament prior to the ACC, SEC, or Big 12. The conference is adored for some reason, but man are they overated.

 

[Pitt2006]

As they

I feel like NET (or the bracketologists) are watching every Q3/4 game of ours intently hoping we lose so they can drop us

As they should. The Quad 1/2 was strong but other teams have caught up and have more opps for better wins. Things are objectively fair, though I think committee will weight road wins higher than the bracketologists.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I all but guarantee that the Big 10 will have all its teams knocked out of the NCAA Tournament prior to the ACC, SEC, or Big 12. The conference is adored for some reason, but man are they overated.

Obviously. When Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, etc are 5 and 6 seeds, it aint hard for them to lose to an 11 seed like Pitt or UNC or someone like that.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I’m surprised there is still this much movement.

The reason why is because when you get past the top teams the difference in a team's rating is really small. So any changes, even small ones, in a team's rating can have a much larger effect on a team's ranking.

That used to happen in the RPI too. A couple of your opponents would win a game and you'd move up four spots, or they'd lose and you'd drop down six, or something like that.

 

[SteelBowl70]

As they

As they should. The Quad 1/2 was strong but other teams have caught up and have more opps for better wins. Things are objectively fair, though I think committee will weight road wins higher than the bracketologists.

Pitt road quad splits are impressive and doesn’t get enough credit.
3-2, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0

Assuming UNC is out, Pitt still has 4 wins against tourney teams and two of those are road wins.