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3/11 NET update

SteelBowl70 said:
58
Passed by PSU, UAB and Drake up went up 12 spots (64 to 52) by besting Bradley by 26 to win the MVC

Fox update - Pitt last 10 seed https://www.foxsports.com/stories/college-basketball/2023-ncaa-tournament-projections-1

10 Big 10 teams
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Collegefootballnews.com has Pitt as an 8 seed as of early Monday morning. Pretty hard to believe. The Athletic has Pitt as a 10 seed and not in its last 4 byes.

I think if we win Wednesday we are pretty much a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and not in Dayton. Even with a Thursday loss to Duke.

However if we lose Wednesday our NET will obviously drop and it could drop a lot. I would think if we lose we either are going to Dayton or the NIT.
 
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Pitt up one to 57 as Sam Houston dropped

Lunardi dropped Pitt 2 positions (39 to 41) to the top 11 seed. Seems like he really didn’t complete his weekend updates until late last night which also included moving PSU to 42 as the last bye and dropping Wisky and rearranging the last 4 in and first four out.

If Clemson (beating NC state) and UNC (over UVA) meet in a semi and UNC wins, both those teams could make it in. NC State beating VT in quarters gets them in. UVA which is now sitting at NET 30 would also likely drop with a loss to UNC, making that home win a Q2. A loss to Duke would then drop Pitt’s Q1 record to 3-5. There’s also a chance a UM run could get them into the field and a top 50 NET making that neutral court loss a Q1. So worst case, even with a win Weds, Pitt could be sitting Sunday with a 3-6 Q1 record and 7-9 Q1/2 and 6 other ACC teams in the field.

If Pitt is sitting around 41 today, which seems the consensus although a few “prominent” media like Palm and DeCoursey and Katz have them higher, a Q3/Q4 win Weds won’t improve that much. Right now the last bye is 42 and the last at large team in is at 46.
 
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SteelBowl70 said:
Pitt up one to 57 as Sam Houston dropped

Lunardi dropped Pitt 2 positions (39 to 41) to the top 11 seed. Seems like he really didn’t complete his weekend updates until late last night which also included moving PSU to 42 as the last bye and dropping Wisky and rearranging the last 4 in and first four out.

If Clemson (beating NC state) and UNC (over UVA) meet in a semi and UNC wins, both those teams could make it in. NC State beating VT in quarters gets them in. UVA which is now sitting at NET 30 would also likely drop with a loss to UNC, making that home win a Q2. A loss to Duke would then drop Pitt’s Q1 record to 3-5. There’s also a chance a UM run could get them into the field and a top 50 NET making that neutral court loss a Q1. So worst case, even with a win Weds, Pitt could be sitting Sunday with a 3-6 Q1 record and 7-9 Q1/2 and 6 other ACC teams in the field.

If Pitt is sitting around 41 today, which seems the consensus although a few “prominent” media like Palm and DeCoursey and Katz have them higher, a Q3/Q4 win Weds won’t improve that much. Right now the last bye is 42 and the last at large team in is at 46.
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If they win tomorrow and even lose against Duke but play them very tough and lose a close game they are in. There is nothing I can see from the eye test that there is enough to keep them out over a lot of the other bubble teams there just isn’t. Their resume is too good.
 
Blair_45 said:
If they win tomorrow and even lose against Duke but play them very tough and lose a close game they are in. There is nothing I can see from the eye test that there is enough to keep them out over a lot of the other bubble teams there just isn’t. Their resume is too good.
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How about if we win Wednesday and get blown out by Duke Thursday? I'd still say we're in but maybe Dayton. Maybe.
 
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SteelBowl70 said:
Pitt 34th in final AP rankings
UVA 13, Miami 14 and Duke 21
NU 31, WVU 32, VCU 37, Vandy 41
And Drake got one vote :)
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We probably don’t deserve much higher than 34th, not because of Miami FL loss but moreso the ND loss.

Would have been interesting if we would have beaten Miami FL or both Miami and ND and gotten a share or sole possession of 1st if we still would have been below Miami, UVA, Duke and NCST as we have been just about all year. Both in poll rankings and bracket seed projections.
 
NCanton Panther said:
We probably don’t deserve much higher than 34th, not because of Miami FL loss but moreso the ND loss.

Would have been interesting if we would have beaten Miami FL or both Miami and ND and gotten a share or sole possession of 1st if we still would have been below Miami, UVA, Duke and NCST as we have been just about all year. Both in poll rankings and bracket seed projections.
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Pitt had an exceptional year. Pitt finally played as a team for a full season under Capel.

Pitt played in and won a lot of close games. We got some bounces.

Pitt does not have exceptional talent. Most nights enough of our talent came through together.

We can beat a lot of teams and lose to a lot of teams.

This year was a great and important step forward. The program owes this team a lot.

I think some of our fan base might have at one point this season got a little ahead of where we actually are.
 
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gary2 said:
Pitt had an exceptional year. Pitt finally played as a team for a full season under Capel.

Pitt played in and won a lot of close games. We got some bounces.

Pitt does not have exceptional talent. Most nights enough of our talent came through together.

We can beat a lot of teams and lose to a lot of teams.

This year was a great and important step forward. The program owes this team a lot.

I think our fan base might have at one point this season got a little ahead of where we actually are.
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Pitt went 8-3 against the top of the ACC (top 9) and 6-3 against the bottom (10-15)
 
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gary2 said:
Pitt had an exceptional year. Pitt finally played as a team for a full season under Capel.

Pitt played in and won a lot of close games. We got some bounces.

Pitt does not have exceptional talent. Most nights enough of our talent came through together.

We can beat a lot of teams and lose to a lot of teams.

This year was a great and important step forward. The program owes this team a lot.

I think some of our fan base might have at one point this season got a little ahead of where we actually are.
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All I’m saying is that we’ve been ranked and seed projected way lower than UVA, Miami, Duke and NCST (closed the gap on NCST some) all year even though vying for ACC 1st place and having beaten all of those teams except for Duke. Would have been interesting to see if, had we beaten Miami a 2nd time with or without ND being a W instead of a L, if these experts would have ever ranked or seed projected us above any of those other ACC teams.
 
NCanton Panther said:
All I’m saying is that we’ve been ranked and seed projected way lower than UVA, Miami, Duke and NCST (closed the gap on NCST some) all year even though vying for ACC 1st place and having beaten all of those teams except for Duke. Would have been interesting to see if, had we beaten Miami a 2nd time with or without ND being a W instead of a L, if these experts would have ever ranked or seed projected us above any of those other ACC teams.
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I doubt it.

Duke, Miami and Virginia would been seen as the best three ACC teams.

I know our Miami scores, but feel the team we are closest to being better than is Virginia.
 
Gonzaga and St Marys winning last night was big. That should only be a two big league so no bid stealers.

YSU lost in Horizon but that looks to be a one bid league.
 
Pitt up 1 to 56. VT dropped 7 to 77 making that loss Q2. NC State up 4 to 37 and UNC up 5 to 44. Pitt splits now
4-3, 3-5, 5-1, 10-1
If UNC beats UVA, UVA will likely drop below 30 and Pitt will lose their only Q1 home win. Miami at 35. Duke dropped to 24. WVU up to 19. Pitt barely ahead of Ohio State who jumped 6 to 57.
As for brackets, Lunardi has Pitt in same spot as 2nd lowest bye. NC State is ahead of Pitt. Teams below Pitt are:
Last in: Miss St, PSU, Rutgers,Ok St, Utah St
First out: ASU, Nevada, UNC & Wisky
Next out: Michigan, Clemson & Oregon

Michigan plays Rutgers which seems like a play in/out game. UNC could play Clemson in a semi if both win. MWC has multiple teams who could move up. So does PAC. There are probably a dozen teams currently below Pitt who are still alive to claim an At-large birth.

Teams to root for today include:
Texas (Ok State)
UVA (UNC)
NC State (Clemson)
Illinois (PSU)
Florida (Miss St)
San Jose St (Nevada)
Wash St (Oregon)
USC (ASU)
UNLV (Boise St)
New Mexico (Utah St)
Michigan/Rutgers loser should be out
 
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Saw Katz talking to Gavitt from committee yesterday. They said one bad loss is just one bad loss. Doesn’t matter if it happened now compared to earlier this season. This is why our NET rating doesn’t really matter. Because we rarely lose or win big. I think our record vs quad 1-2 especially on road and neutral sites really matter more. Hence why most bracketologists still have us comfortably in despite a small dip at the end of the season.
 
Pitt had a lot of close wins and no shame if Dayton is the destination. Not enough teams to be left out entirely.
 
Yea the NET is a joke. Pitt should still be ahead of NC State right now in the brackets based on the fact that they finished ahead of them in the ACC and they beat them as well on the road. Pitt as a result of the Duke blowout went from being 5 ahead of Clemson in the NET before yesterdays results to now being 16 behind them today. Makes no sense at all. I still think Pitt is in and a lot of the brackets out later today will still show that.
 
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Clemson should really be in over Penn State. I do wonder if some B12 and B10 teams get left out in the end. Not all have great road/neutral records. Likely some surprises and controversy to come.
 
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I doubt if Pitt is higher than 11 in any bracket today. Palm dropped us from 9-11 and didn’t factor in the late games. PSU is 10.
 
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Pitt2006 said:
Clemson should really be in over Penn State. I do wonder if some B12 and B10 teams get left out in the end. Not all have great road/neutral records. Likely some surprises and controversy to come.
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PSU is a 🔐 and Clemson (and Pitt) are in good shape. NC State has got to be feeling nervous. They have 1 Q1 win
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
PSU is a 🔐 and Clemson (and Pitt) are in good shape. NC State has got to be feeling nervous. They have 1 Q1 win
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Yea I got NC State below both Pitt and Clemson. They are a combined 0-4 against them and finished below them in the ACC Standings and as you mentioned they have 1 Quad 1 win. That has to count for something aside from the absurd NET Rankings. If head to head meetings don’t mean anything in the conference and aren’t gonna count for anything come NCCA Tournament time then don’t play the damn games.
 
KennyHeisman8 said:
@Joe the Panther Fan are all these bracketologists wrong about not using teams NET for seeding?
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Actually NONE of the bracektologists use teams NET ranking for seeding. If they did, we wouldn't be worried about if we might have to play in Dayton or if we were going to make the "real field", because we would be so far out of it that we'd have absolutely no chance.

UConn's NET is 7, and yet the average bracketologist has them a four seed. In fact when the NCAA did their top four seed reveal thing a few weeks ago UConn was 8th in the NET, and yet wasn't even a top four seed. Kansas' NET is 8, and yet they might end up the number one overall seed. St. Mary's NET is 10, and yet on the matrix they are a six seed. Florida Atlantic is 15, and yet they are an eight seed (and if they would have lost today they might have been in trouble). Arkansas is 20 and Kentucky is 21, and yet Kentucky is a six and Arkansas is an eight. West Virginia is 24 and they are a nine. Xavier is 25, and yet they are a four. Boise State is 26, and they are a 10 and if they lose tonight they are square on the bubble, and maybe on the wrong side. Indiana is 30, and yet they are a four. Miami is 34th, and yet they are a five. North Texas is 36, and they have no chance at all. There are a ton of teams, probably at least 15, who have better NET rankings than we do who have absolutely no chance to make the tournament.

And the reason for that is that all the bracketologist know that the NCAA does not pick the teams for the tournament based on their NET rankings and they don't seed the tournament based on team's NET rankings.

But hey, we only have five tournament's worth of information and what the NCAA says about how the teams are selected and seeded. Maybe this year will be the year that they do something completely different. Without actually telling anyone ahead of time.
 
ASU 66 & Clemson 57 only drop 6.
Pitt still 67
UVA up 6 to 23
Ohio state 48 up 8 with a 10 point win? While the team they beat MSU 33 drops only 2.
Miami 35 is behind both Illinois & MSU
Vandy 79 with a 10-10 Q1/2
Pitt’s quad record is now set in stone unless Duke blows out UVA to drop them above 30.
4-4, 3-5, 5-1, 10-1
Road 3-2, 1-2, 2-1, 1-0

lunardi bubble
Team road wins Q1 road record
Miss State 4 1-6
NC State 4 0-5
Pitt 7 3-2
ASU 7 3-3
Vandy 5 2-5
 
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