3 point shooting with a 10% difference between teams

[Sean Miller Fan]

Going back to Mon, Jan 23

VT 53
Duke 39

Miami 51
FSU 14

Clemson 45
GT 17

Pitt 49
Wake 37

Lou 50
BC 36 (BC won)

NC State 47
Wake 33

Duke 39
GT 23

FSU 43
Clem 31 (Clem won by 1)

UVa 43
Syr 20

Pitt 37
UNC 19

Lou 37
GT 26

NCSU 60
FSU 30

Wake 47
ND 19

Duke 36
UNC 26

Miami 41
Duke 26

Pitt 55
Lou 37

BC 50
VT 31

Teams outshooting their opponent by 10% or more are 15-2. Despite what Joethe3pointdenier says, college basketball is a 3 point shooting contest

 

[upj87]

Going back to Mon, Jan 23

VT 53
Duke 39

Miami 51
FSU 14

Clemson 45
GT 17

Pitt 49
Wake 37

Lou 50
BC 36 (BC won)

NC State 47
Wake 33

Duke 39
GT 23

FSU 43
Clem 31 (Clem won by 1)

UVa 43
Syr 20

Pitt 37
UNC 19

Lou 37
GT 26

NCSU 60
FSU 30

Wake 47
ND 19

Duke 36
UNC 26

Miami 41
Duke 26

Pitt 55
Lou 37

BC 50
VT 31

Teams outshooting their opponent by 10% or more are 15-2. Despite what Joethe3pointdenier says, college basketball is a 3 point shooting contest

Great..now do the 10% better 2 pointers and get back to us...

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Great..now do the 10% better 2 pointers and get back to us...

I still think it's a 17-0 advantage in foul shots.

100%.

Doesn't get any better than that.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Going back to Mon, Jan 23

VT 53
Duke 39

Miami 51
FSU 14

Clemson 45
GT 17

Pitt 49
Wake 37

Lou 50
BC 36 (BC won)

NC State 47
Wake 33

Duke 39
GT 23

FSU 43
Clem 31 (Clem won by 1)

UVa 43
Syr 20

Pitt 37
UNC 19

Lou 37
GT 26

NCSU 60
FSU 30

Wake 47
ND 19

Duke 36
UNC 26

Miami 41
Duke 26

Pitt 55
Lou 37

BC 50
VT 31

Teams outshooting their opponent by 10% or more are 15-2. Despite what Joethe3pointdenier says, college basketball is a 3 point shooting

Going back to Mon, Jan 23

VT 53
Duke 39

Miami 51
FSU 14

Clemson 45
GT 17

Pitt 49
Wake 37

Lou 50
BC 36 (BC won)

NC State 47
Wake 33

Duke 39
GT 23

FSU 43
Clem 31 (Clem won by 1)

UVa 43
Syr 20

Pitt 37
UNC 19

Lou 37
GT 26

NCSU 60
FSU 30

Wake 47
ND 19

Duke 36
UNC 26

Miami 41
Duke 26

Pitt 55
Lou 37

BC 50
VT 31

Teams outshooting their opponent by 10% or more are 15-2. Despite what Joethe3pointdenier says, college basketball is a 3 point shooting

Going back to Mon, Jan 23

VT 53
Duke 39

Miami 51
FSU 14

Clemson 45
GT 17

Pitt 49
Wake 37

Lou 50
BC 36 (BC won)

NC State 47
Wake 33

Duke 39
GT 23

FSU 43
Clem 31 (Clem won by 1)

UVa 43
Syr 20

Pitt 37
UNC 19

Lou 37
GT 26

NCSU 60
FSU 30

Wake 47
ND 19

Duke 36
UNC 26

Miami 41
Duke 26

Pitt 55
Lou 37

BC 50
VT 31

Teams outshooting their opponent by 10% or more are 15-2. Despite what Joethe3pointdenier says, college basketball is a 3 point shooting contest

Thanks for the analysis. There were 35 games played since Jan 23, so this is roughly half the games. So in the other half, it was obviously not the deciding factor.

One also has to consider what’s correlation versus causation. If a team is behind, they are forced to shoot more 3 pointers late which could drive their percentage down. One would need to do deeper analysis of when the shots were taken to determine this.

It’s certainly fair to say that it’s better not to have a large negative disparity in 3 point shooting percentage. And we don’t want that to happen again Saturday.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

There were 35 games played since Jan 23, so this is roughly half the games. So in the other half, it was obviously not the deciding factor.

One also has to consider what’s correlation versus causation. If a team is behind, they are forced to shoot more 3 pointers late which could drive their percentage down. One would need to do deeper analysis of when the shots were taken to determine this.

It’s certainly fair to say that it’s better not to have a large negative disparity in 3 point shooting percentage. And we don’t want to happen again Saturday.

People who have studied this a lot more than SMF ever will have what they call the "four factors", the four things that are clearly the most important to winning games. One of the four is effective shooting percentage, which combines three point shooting and two point shooting. But even combining those two things together, while that is the most important of the four factors it also accounts for less than half of what makes a "winning formula".

Because people who watch basketball and understand basketball know that there is a lot more to winning and losing than just shooting threes.

 

[Sam Young 23]

This is not an accurate take at all to winning and losing a basketball game. A better correlation would be how many 3's a team hit. Like if one team hit 13 vs 3 or 4.

 

[DT_PITT]

People who have studied this a lot more than SMF ever will have what they call the "four factors", the four things that are clearly the most important to winning games. One of the four is effective shooting percentage, which combines three point shooting and two point shooting. But even combining those two things together, while that is the most important of the four factors it also accounts for less than half of what makes a "winning formula".

Because people who watch basketball and understand basketball know that there is a lot more to winning and losing than just shooting threes.

@thirteenNINE "pleased"

 

[DT_PITT]

@thirteenNINE "pleased"

And while I'm at it ... I'm calling for a return of the Morning Cup O' Stats!!

We've seen a peak at the Cliff Notes @NTOP and @UPitt '89 is doing the Bubble Watch. @thirteenNINE, is it too much to ask for a little Cup?

 

[DT_PITT]

People who have studied this a lot more than SMF ever will have what they call the "four factors", the four things that are clearly the most important to winning games. One of the four is effective shooting percentage, which combines three point shooting and two point shooting. But even combining those two things together, while that is the most important of the four factors it also accounts for less than half of what makes a "winning formula".

Because people who watch basketball and understand basketball know that there is a lot more to winning and losing than just shooting threes.

And while I'm at it: Four Factors

 

[Ski11585]

And while I'm at it ... I'm calling for a return of the Morning Cup O' Stats!!

We've seen a peak at the Cliff Notes @NTOP and @UPitt '89 is doing the Bubble Watch. @thirteenNINE, is it too much to ask for a little Cup?

I fully support @thirteenNINE bringing. Ack the Cup O’ Stats.

 

[thirteenNINE]

And while I'm at it ... I'm calling for a return of the Morning Cup O' Stats!!

We've seen a peak at the Cliff Notes @NTOP and @UPitt '89 is doing the Bubble Watch. @thirteenNINE, is it too much to ask for a little Cup?

I fully support @thirteenNINE bringing. Ack the Cup O’ Stats.

We'll see what I can put together after the BC game on Tuesday night. I'll try to make it very romantic like.

 

[upj87]

Going back to Mon, Jan 23

VT 53
Duke 39

Miami 51
FSU 14

Clemson 45
GT 17

Pitt 49
Wake 37

Lou 50
BC 36 (BC won)

NC State 47
Wake 33

Duke 39
GT 23

FSU 43
Clem 31 (Clem won by 1)

UVa 43
Syr 20

Pitt 37
UNC 19

Lou 37
GT 26

NCSU 60
FSU 30

Wake 47
ND 19

Duke 36
UNC 26

Miami 41
Duke 26

Pitt 55
Lou 37

BC 50
VT 31

Teams outshooting their opponent by 10% or more are 15-2. Despite what Joethe3pointdenier says, college basketball is a 3 point shooting contest

"I'm Ted Baxter and I have just been handed this important bulletin. It has been determined that basketball teams that shoot the ball into the basket at a significantly higher rate than their opposition tend to win a significantly higher percentage of said games when compared to outcomes involving more even shooting percentages. Gordy will have more on this breaking development during his Sports segment"

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

"I'm Ted Baxter and I have just been handed this important bulletin. It has been determined that basketball teams that shoot the ball into the basket at a significantly higher rate than their opposition tend to win a significantly higher percentage of said games when compared to outcomes involving more even shooting percentages. Gordy will have more on this breaking development during his Sports segment"

Joe doesn't believe it. He's a 3 point denier.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Thanks for the analysis. There were 35 games played since Jan 23, so this is roughly half the games. So in the other half, it was obviously not the deciding factor.

One also has to consider what’s correlation versus causation. If a team is behind, they are forced to shoot more 3 pointers late which could drive their percentage down. One would need to do deeper analysis of when the shots were taken to determine this.

It’s certainly fair to say that it’s better not to have a large negative disparity in 3 point shooting percentage. And we don’t want that to happen again Saturday.

I would guess (though I dont know this) that the percentage of shots teaming are taking from 3 is at or near all-time highs. Sk when most of these teams are basing so much of their offense from the 3 point shot, it reasons that teams who shoot it better will win. The analytics say to shoot more 3s and the amount of flopping going on has disincentivized drives to the basket. If you drive, there is a very high likelihood, someone will be waiting for you to run them over. So no drives, no mid-range. All 3s. That's college basketball.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

I would guess (though I dont know this) that the percentage of shots teaming are taking from 3 is at or near all-time highs. Sk when most of these teams are basing so much of their offense from the 3 point shot, it reasons that teams who shoot it better will win. The analytics say to shoot more 3s and the amount of flopping going on has disincentivized drives to the basket. If you drive, there is a very high likelihood, someone will be waiting for you to run them over. So no drives, no mid-range. All 3s. That's college basketball.

Dude, watch the games. Everyone drives to the basket, off ISOs and high pick and roll. Yes often they kick it out for threes, that's the basic AAU/pro offense (though TBF good NBA offenses are much more elegant than they get credit for) but they are still driving to shoot floaters, layups, or to kick it out. Efficiency statistics for the paint are still pretty good, just like corner threes.

https://cbbanalytics.com/tools/shot-charts

Pitt's chart isn't quite as pretty in the paint as an Arizona and our mid-range is a little better than average probably because of Burton. We are much better from the right corner than the left corner (Elliot sets up there more and we tend to be pretty right handed with our sets.) There are always little twists.

 

[upj87]

Joe doesn't believe it. He's a 3 point denier.

Never heard the man deny their existence.

I was not talking about 3 pointers... your useless analysis was flawed and proved nothing other than a team shooting significantly better than another (3 OR 2 pointers) more than likely wins. been that way since Naismith put up his first peach basket. ...save the silly catch-all "denier" term that your ilk loves so much...

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Never heard the man deny their existence.

I was not talking about 3 pointers... your useless analysis was flawed and proved nothing other than a team shooting significantly better than another (3 OR 2 pointers) more than likely wins. been that way since Naismith put up his first peach basket. ...save the silly catch-all "denier" term that your ilk loves so much...

Yes, I agree that its simplistic. The team that shoots 3s much better will win. Surprised Joe denied that.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Joe doesn't believe it. He's a 3 point denier.

Joe never said any such thing. Joe has always and consistently pointed out the fact, and it is a fact, that there is much more to it than just three point shooting. The fact that you think that there isn't, and are so loudly and vociferously in proclaim it, doesn't mean that you are correct. It's simply more evidence that you have no idea what you are talking about.

In the unlikely event that anyone needed it.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Joe never said any such thing. Joe has always and consistently pointed out the fact, and it is a fact, that there is much more to it than just three point shooting. The fact that you think that there isn't, and are so loudly and vociferously in proclaim it, doesn't mean that you are correct. It's simply more evidence that you have no idea what you are talking about.

In the unlikely event that anyone needed it.

There's more to it, of course. However, if you outshoot your opponent by 10%, you have at least a 75% chance to win. Now if you turn the ball over 25 times, sure you are probably going to lose but assuming you don't completely eff up the other areas, if you outshoot your opponent from 3, you will win the vast majority of the time.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

There's more to it, of course. However, if you outshoot your opponent by 10%, you have at least a 75% chance to win. Now if you turn the ball over 25 times, sure you are probably going to lose but assuming you don't completely eff up the other areas, if you outshoot your opponent from 3, you will win the vast majority of the time.

Once again, people a whole lot smarter than you who have studied this a whole lot more than you ever will would tell you that you aren't just wrong, that you aren't even close to being correct.

 

[DT_PITT]

Joe never said any such thing. Joe has always and consistently pointed out the fact, and it is a fact, that there is much more to it than just three point shooting. The fact that you think that there isn't, and are so loudly and vociferously in proclaim it, doesn't mean that you are correct. It's simply more evidence that you have no idea what you are talking about.

In the unlikely event that anyone needed it.

Hey, I tried to help with posting the link to the four factors!!

This isn’t to say that @Sean Miller Fan is unique in his beliefs.

One of my beefs is the constant refrain of “we missed our free throws,” even in games when a team shoots 70+ percent. Meanwhile, there’s not the same outcry for missed layups or short jumpers.

The bottom line is that you need to make shots whether they are 1s, 2s, or 3s.

Effective FG% and true shooting% are good stats for sure.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Once again, people a whole lot smarter than you who have studied this a whole lot more than you ever will would tell you that you aren't just wrong, that you aren't even close to being correct.

That's cool and all but I've made it really easy for everyone. Make your 3s = win. There, that's it. So send that to the Four Factors people. Because turnovers, rebounds, free throws are all nice to look at but if you significantly outshoot your opponent from 3, you are most likely going to win. If FSU shoots 40% tomorrow and we shoot 27%, we are probably going to lose.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

That's cool and all but I've made it really easy for everyone. Make your 3s = win. There, that's it. So send that to the Four Factors people. Because turnovers, rebounds, free throws are all nice to look at but if you significantly outshoot your opponent from 3, you are most likely going to win. If FSU shoots 40% tomorrow and we shoot 27%, we are probably going to lose.

And part of your problem is that you are dumb enough to think that it's that easy.

Like I've said before, sometimes I'm convinced that your dumb guy routine is just that, a routine. This isn't one of those times.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

And part of your problem is that you are dumb enough to think that it's that easy.

Like I've said before, sometimes I'm convinced that your dumb guy routine is just that, a routine. This isn't one of those times.

So you disagree with me then that teams who outshoot the other by 10% have a 75% or greater chance of winning? Ok, we're back to that.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

So you disagree with me then that teams who outshoot the other by 10% have a 75% or greater chance of winning? Ok, we're back to that.

Once again, for the 14 millionth time, it is simply not that simple. The fact that you can't think any deeper than that doesn't mean that you are right. It means that you can't think any deeper than that.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Once again, for the 14 millionth time, it is simply not that simple. The fact that you can't think any deeper than that doesn't mean that you are right. It means that you can't think any deeper than that.

Do you honestly think I mean teams just need to go out and make 3s and then actively try to not get any rebounds or defend anyone? Of course they have to try. And I'm saying that basically you need to royally eff up to lose a game where you outshoot the opponent by 10%. If you do that, you will win.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Do you honestly think I mean teams just need to go out and make 3s and then actively try to not get any rebounds or defend anyone? Of course they have to try. And I'm saying that basically you need to royally eff up to lose a game where you outshoot the opponent by 10%. If you do that, you will win.

I think you mean exactly what you say.

Do you really think that people should have to try to interpret what your posts mean when what they actually say is pretty clear?

 

[Conemaugh]

I think you mean exactly what you say.

Do you really think that people should have to try to interpret what your posts mean when what they actually say is pretty clear?

God almighty. I visit the Pitt basketball board for the first time in a number of years and see that SMF is......... SMF. I was hoping just to learn up on a nice season that I cannot watch from being on the road..... and I see SMF being SMF on the basketball board just like the football board.

This dude is a wet blanket on anything positive. Football, basketball, academia, the stock market, or the price of tulips in the Netherlands.

Glad to hear Pitt basketball is doing well this season. Looking forward to catching a game on TV soon.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

VT 47%
Pitt 17%

 

[PittPanther44]

Not earth shattering analysis here.

With teams firing up 20 a piece, a 10% difference can be a total of a 12 point swin from up 10% to down 10%

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Not earth shattering analysis here.

With teams firing up 20 a piece, a 10% difference can be a total of a 12 point swin from up 10% to down 10%

Exactly

 

[Drew1208]

Exactly

Why did that happen would be the important analysis there.
The numbers are just that. But why was Pitt unsuccessful from 3 and Vtech was not?
Anything to do with players and or schemes today?
Or just randomness?

 

[Pitt2006]

Kansas shot awful from 3 and still trounced Baylor second half. The fact Pitt kept semi close was actually frustrating and encouraging at same time.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Why did that happen would be the important analysis there.
The numbers are just that. But why was Pitt unsuccessful from 3 and Vtech was not?
Anything to do with players and or schemes today?
Or just randomness?

Well, for one, Pitt only shot 18 3s, which has to be somewhere near a season low. Pitt's offense is 3s and Burton mid-range. They ran Elliot off the 3 point line which is why you saw him driving the lane for baskets, something you haven't seen all season. In a nutshell, they overplayed our 3 point shooters and wanted to make them beat us by driving for 2s.

As for Pitt's defense, I dont think our defense is very good and have said that all season. Teams get warm-up 3s against us but luckily they haven't lit it up every game. But FSU shot 50%. VT shot 47%. Game.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Well, for one, Pitt only shot 18 3s, which has to be somewhere near a season low. Pitt's offense is 3s and Burton mid-range. They ran Elliot off the 3 point line which is why you saw him driving the lane for baskets, something you haven't seen all season. In a nutshell, they overplayed our 3 point shooters and wanted to make them beat us by driving for 2s.

As for Pitt's defense, I dont think our defense is very good and have said that all season. Teams get warm-up 3s against us but luckily they haven't lit it up every game. But FSU shot 50%. VT shot 47%. Game.

VT had 79 points in 64 possessions

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

VT had 79 points in 64 possessions

27 points on only 18 3 point attempts.

 

[DT_PITT]

VT had 79 points in 64 possessions

And this is that stat that matters most for this game in my opinion.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

And this is that stat that matters most for this game in my opinion.

I think Pitt tries hard to play defense but they just arent very good at it. I think a lot of our good defensive performances are owed a lot to other teams just missing shots. Well that and Fede. But Fede was completely lost yesterday guarding Basile.