ACC Rankings Today

[DC_Area_Panther]

Per KenPom this morning:

UNC #15
Duke #20
UVA #23
Clemson #26
Miami #38
Pitt #47
Wake #63
VA Tech #67
NC St #68
Fl St #73
Cuse #101
BC #104
GA Tech # 125
Lou # 162
N. Dame # 170

 

[Pitt2006]

NET as of this morning:

UNC #36
Duke #42
UVA #23
Clemson #19
Miami #37
Pitt #46
Wake #106
VA Tech #69
NC St #53
Fl St #107
Cuse #113
BC #92
GA Tech # 158
Lou # 277
N. Dame # 211

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

NET as of this morning:

UNC #36
Duke #42
UVA #23
Clemson #19
Miami #37
Pitt #46
Wake #106
VA Tech #69
NC St #53
Fl St #107
Cuse #113
BC #92
GA Tech # 158
Lou # 277
N. Dame # 211

In
Clemson
UVa
UNC
Miami
Duke

Bubble
Pitt
NC St
VT

Nothing looks any different and its playing out exactly how most of us thought. Wake's NET is too low for a team that's 5-3 and has beaten Florida and Rutgers. I am guessing their 15 point win over 349 and 10 point win over 253 is holding them back 20-25 spots.

The ACC 12 right now is getting 2 bids with a possibility of a 3rd. The bottom of the league is trash like always. And the ACC's NET is 5th. So its as bad as its always been.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I'll graciously accept the respect, but my gosh - it feels like we've played three respectable teams all year and lost to all three of them.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I'll graciously accept the respect, but my gosh - it feels like we've played three respectable teams all year and lost to all three of them.

We blew out 4 teams and the 17 point road win at WVU is over-weighted because if there's anything NET likes more than blowouts, its road blowouts.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

So probably at least 14-6 again? If its the right 14, again?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

So probably at least 14-6 again? If its the right 14, again?

Yea. 14-6 probably does it. 13-7 could if its the right 13. 12-8, no chance really.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Yea. 14-6 probably does it. 13-7 could if its the right 13. 12-8, no chance really.

12-8 could do it, but you’d need to beat Duke at least once, and maybe the road game at Clemson later in the year or win at Miami. And avoid any Q3 or Q4 losses.

At 12-8, which is really 12-7 for the rest of the season, our Net would still be very good. Maybe 2 wins in the ACCT as well?

I dunno, 12-8 would certainly put them in the conversation. The WVU thrashing at least saved them from an 0-3 stretch which would have ended things early

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

An opinion: Aside from all the math, it is how this team is built that will impact the ultimate W vs L record. It is best suited for getting out and running the floor. The triplets are too un-muscular for a half court slower paced style of play.

Unfortunately the rest of the ACC knows this and every opponent will attempt to impose a slower paced half court game (final score in the 60s or 70s) on Pitt and they will be successful like Clemson and Missouri if they are also physically strong near the bucket--except when Pitt has a particularly hot 3-ball shooting game.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

In
Clemson
UVa
UNC
Miami
Duke

Bubble
Pitt
NC St
VT

Nothing looks any different and its playing out exactly how most of us thought. Wake's NET is too low for a team that's 5-3 and has beaten Florida and Rutgers. I am guessing their 15 point win over 349 and 10 point win over 253 is holding them back 20-25 spots.

The ACC 12 right now is getting 2 bids with a possibility of a 3rd. The bottom of the league is trash like always. And the ACC's NET is 5th. So its as bad as its always been.

Wake will have a shot at the bubble too. They will get much better when Monsanto comes back and with the addition of Reid too.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

An opinion: Aside from all the math, it is how this team is built that will impact the ultimate W vs L record. It is best suited for getting out and running the floor. The triplets are too un-muscular for a half court slower paced style of play.

Unfortunately the rest of the ACC knows this and every opponent will attempt to impose a slower paced half court game (final score in the 60s or 70s) on Pitt and they will be successful like Clemson and Missouri if they are also physically strong near the bucket--except when Pitt has a particularly hot 3-ball shooting game.

A slower half court pace is not the problem. A slower half court pace with physical defense is. WVU had one of the slowest paces in the country, but it was not your typical WVU defense and toughness.

The ACC is generally a more finesse league, which is good for us.

 

[Ski11585]

In
Clemson
UVa
UNC
Miami
Duke

Bubble
Pitt
NC St
VT

Nothing looks any different and its playing out exactly how most of us thought. Wake's NET is too low for a team that's 5-3 and has beaten Florida and Rutgers. I am guessing their 15 point win over 349 and 10 point win over 253 is holding them back 20-25 spots.

The ACC 12 right now is getting 2 bids with a possibility of a 3rd. The bottom of the league is trash like always. And the ACC's NET is 5th. So its as bad as its always been.

ACC 12 is one of your dumber ideas but I admire your commitment to using it.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

I think what everyone is failing to consider is that we only have 5-6 Q1 win opportunities. That’s not good. Where are we gonna get them? I’m not sure we are constructed to do so and the ACC isn’t going to provide enough opportunities. Things might change. Capel might figure out a rotation that works. But it’s looking like an NIT season for me.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think what everyone is failing to consider is that we only have 5-6 Q1 win opportunities.

This is what I have been saying. We had 4 Q1 Ws last year and 3 Q2s. We have 0 so far this year and we dont have many opportunities. We also already have a Q3 loss.

Here's the thing. I think we are NCAAT good. We have a good enough team. But our league is really hard to make it from because of the ACC 12 + 3 deal. What I mean is you arent going to beat "the 3." They are going to be your Q1s but usually (not every year) they are 1, 2, 3, 4 seeds and those are really hard teams to beat. Then there's a really big gap where you basically have the Atlantic 10. So beating those teams doesn't really do anything for you and you are going to lose some Q3s because those teams are better than your NET.

I dont see a path at 12-8. Forget Duke, we aren't beating them. We're going to need to beat 2 of the 4 road games vs Miami, Clemson, UVa, and NC State and then beat UNC at home. That gives us 3 Q1s, which has to be about the minimum. Then win some Q2s.

The path is just so narrow. Its so disappointing because I think its an NCAAT team. Its a team who would go 10-10 in the B10 and get in easily but 13-7 in the ACC might not do it

 

[Fk_Pitt]

This is what I have been saying. We had 4 Q1 Ws last year and 3 Q2s. We have 0 so far this year and we dont have many opportunities. We also already have a Q3 loss.

Here's the thing. I think we are NCAAT good. We have a good enough team. But our league is really hard to make it from because of the ACC 12 + 3 deal. What I mean is you arent going to beat "the 3." They are going to be your Q1s but usually (not every year) they are 1, 2, 3, 4 seeds and those are really hard teams to beat. Then there's a really big gap where you basically have the Atlantic 10. So beating those teams doesn't really do anything for you and you are going to lose some Q3s because those teams are better than your NET.

I dont see a path at 12-8. Forget Duke, we aren't beating them. We're going to need to beat 2 of the 4 road games vs Miami, Clemson, UVa, and NC State and then beat UNC at home. That gives us 3 Q1s, which has to be about the minimum. Then win some Q2s.

The path is just so narrow. Its so disappointing because I think its an NCAAT team. Its a team who would go 10-10 in the B10 and get in easily but 13-7 in the ACC might not do it

If you compare us to #41 Iowa, they have 7 Q1 games on their league schedule and 4 Q2 games as things stand today.

If you look at Pitt #46 Pitt, we have 5 Q1 games and 7 Q2 games on our schedule. If Duke and UNC gets their stuff together we could get an additional Q1 game or two.

So I don’t see a huge difference in the amount of resume builders each team in the ACC/B1G has.

The difference is with the B12, where the league is very good again. WVU has 11 Q1 games on their league schedule and that could go up or down a game or two.

Right now our biggest win is vs Q3 WVU. All others are Q4 wins.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

So 17-5 rest of the way? Sheesh

 

[Fk_Pitt]

One additional thing. UNC plays UK and Oklahoma Before January comes around.

Duke has a game vs Baylor.

We really could use 3 wins here.

And I still like the idea of leagues taking a break in Feb (like soccer does international breaks) so that they can go out and schedule OOC games to boost their resumes and/or their leagues strength because it stinks that leagues build up their value in November for the most part and then it doesn’t change much.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If you compare us to #41 Iowa, they have 7 Q1 games on their league schedule and 4 Q2 games as things stand today.

If you look at Pitt #46 Pitt, we have 5 Q1 games and 7 Q2 games on our schedule. If Duke and UNC gets their stuff together we could get an additional Q1 game or two.

So I don’t see a huge difference in the amount of resume builders each team in the ACC/B1G has.

The difference is with the B12, where the league is very good again. WVU has 11 Q1 games on their league schedule and that could go up or down a game or two.

Right now our biggest win is vs Q3 WVU. All others are Q4 wins.

I have been saying this for years but what helps the B10 so much and hurts the ACC is although they have some good teams at the top, there are no "unwinnable games." None of those B10 teams are really that great and you see that in March when they bow out early. So when you get a top B10 team at home, thats a Q1 win for you. In the ACC, those teams are Duke and UVa. For Pitt, that's 0-3 for us. Guaranteed.

 

[DT_PITT]

So 17-5 rest of the way? Sheesh

We can do it!!

I wouldn't quite bet on it, but I see it as very possible if we are play at our best. I'm just glad this we have last year as a guidepost to know this is indeed possible.

I'm looking forward to seeing how it all shakes out!!

 

[DT_PITT]

Yea. 14-6 probably does it. 13-7 could if its the right 13. 12-8, no chance really.

For once, we basically agree.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

The NCAAT "eye test" for Pitt being selected from the ACC. IMHO, this means having no more than 8-9 total losses at tourney selection time.

The minimum math--9-2 (OOC) + 14-6 (ACC) + 0-1 (ACCT) 23-9. A 13-7 ACC would, IMHO, require at least 2 ACCT wins to squeak in with 10 losses.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

So 17-5 rest of the way? Sheesh

More like 17-2 counting 2 Duke losses and an @ Clemson loss. As I have said numerous times, the path is far too narrow. We blew it. Needed to win at least 1 of Fla, Clem, Mizz. Lost all 3 so we're all but finished. And again, I think we have an NCAAT-ish team but we dont play in a league that will give us what we need to make it.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

More like 17-2 counting 2 Duke losses and an @ Clemson loss. As I have said numerous times, the path is far too narrow. We blew it. Needed to win at least 1 of Fla, Clem, Mizz. Lost all 3 so we're all but finished. And again, I think we have an NCAAT-ish team but we dont play in a league that will give us what we need to make it.

If you really think that the season is essentially over maybe it would be best for your mental health if you just went away for a while. Save you a lot of angst.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If you really think that the season is essentially over maybe it would be best for your mental health if you just went away for a while. Save you a lot of angst.

Nah. I will watch them all the way through the NIT. Looking forward to the new NIT actually.

 

[TD_6082]

More like 17-2 counting 2 Duke losses and an @ Clemson loss. As I have said numerous times, the path is far too narrow. We blew it. Needed to win at least 1 of Fla, Clem, Mizz. Lost all 3 so we're all but finished. And again, I think we have an NCAAT-ish team but we dont play in a league that will give us what we need to make it.

No game is an automatic loss. And honestly, if they aren't good enough to win at least one game out of 4 vs Clemson & Duke, then maybe they aren't worthy of a NCAAT bid. It's crazy to chalk any game up as an automatic loss,

Pitt has room for growth and they should continue to improve. Clemson is pretty much operating at their ceiling, imo. They are pretty much going to be the same team in late February as they are now.

 

[str61166]

No game is an automatic loss. And honestly, if they aren't good enough to win at least one game out of 4 vs Clemson & Duke, then maybe they aren't worthy of a NCAAT bid. It's crazy to chalk any game up as an automatic loss,

Pitt has room for growth and they should continue to improve. Clemson is pretty much operating at their ceiling, imo. They are pretty much going to be the same team in late February as they are now.

Plus I like to think Pitt is due to beat them eventually… so ridiculous they’ve lost 11 straight to them.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

No game is an automatic loss. And honestly, if they aren't good enough to win at least one game out of 4 vs Clemson & Duke, then maybe they aren't worthy of a NCAAT bid. It's crazy to chalk any game up as an automatic loss,

Pitt has room for growth and they should continue to improve. Clemson is pretty much operating at their ceiling, imo. They are pretty much going to be the same team in late February as they are now.

Yes and no. When you only get 8 Q1/2 opportunities in your league, which is ridiculously low, having 4 of them against 2 teams you never beat....and losing all 4 doesn't mean you dont belong in the tournament. It means you dont match up well with 2 teams and you don't have enough other games to make up for it.

 

[73CAV]

And the ACC's NET is 5th. So its as bad as its always been.

If I am not mistaken, the average ranking is 5th. Every conference has some cellar dwellers who drag down that average down disproportionately. Some moreso than others (Louisville, cough, cough). It might be a bit more useful to consider the median as opposed to the mean. If so, the ACC is 3rd according to a post I picked up elsewhere.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Yes and no. When you only get 8 Q1/2 opportunities in your league, which is ridiculously low, having 4 of them against 2 teams you never beat....and losing all 4 doesn't mean you dont belong in the tournament. It means you dont match up well with 2 teams and you don't have enough other games to make up for it.

Just for clarity, we have 12 q1/q2 ACC games on our schedule and 6 of those are Q1. I’m hoping UNC gets hot and our home game vs them ends up being a Q1 game. Duke needs to stay the course and not drop. Same goes for NCSU. Syracuse and Wake have the potential to rise from Q3 games up to Q2 games if either of those 2 get hot.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Just for clarity, we have 12 q1/q2 ACC games on our schedule and 6 of those are Q1. I’m hoping UNC gets hot and our home game vs them ends up being a Q1 game. Duke needs to stay the course and not drop. Same goes for NCSU. Syracuse and Wake have the potential to rise from Q3 games up to Q2 games if either of those 2 get hot.

The Q2s dont matter as much. We need to win a minimum of 2 Q1 games. UNC had a good Q2 record last year and good NET of 47 but had only 1 Q1 win and really werent even close to getting in. Need to go a minimum of 2-4 vs

Duke
@ Duke
@ Miami
@ Clemson
@ UVa
@ NC St

Going to be really tough to do that

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

good NET of 47

47 isn't actually a good NET to make the tournament as an at large.

Fortunately for them, the NCAA does not select teams for the tournament based on their NET. Unfortunately for them, they didn't have enough other things on their resume for it to matter.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

47 isn't actually a good NET to make the tournament as an at large.

Fortunately for them, the NCAA does not select teams for the tournament based on their NET. Unfortunately for them, they didn't have enough other things on their resume for it to matter.

Translates to a 12 seed which there were non at-larges that low last year. But could go up 2 based on quads. 1 Q1 win eliminated them. Needed at least 3 probably if their NET was going to be 47. We probably need 3 as well but could possibly get in with 2 depending on how bad the bubble is.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Translates to a 12 seed which there were non at-larges that low last year. But could go up 2 based on quads. 1 Q1 win eliminated them. Needed at least 3 probably if their NET was going to be 47. We probably need 3 as well but could possibly get in with 2 depending on how bad the bubble is.

It translates to a 12 seed if you completely ignore all the one bid league winners. Once you count them it's not actually good. There were four teams with better NET rankings than North Carolina that got excluded last year. The year before there were six teams with better NET rankings than 47 that got excluded.

If your NET is that bad you need to rely on the fact that the NCAA does not select the teams for the tournament based on their NET rankings and hope that you have something else really good on your resume. North Carolina last year did not.