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#9 in the NET - games through 12/28.

KenPom ACC rankings this AM--

Duke --2
Pitt--25
UNC --28
Clemson--30
SMU--42

Suggests only 4 ACC teams are likely to make the NCAAs.
 
SMU’s net is 30.
Will their NET rating slip?

Yet TBD?

Observation was that it is historically rare that a P5 team that computers ratings (i.e., KenPom, Torvik--and formerly Sagarin, etc.) have rated in the 40s at season's end actually get in the NCAA's with an at-large bid. This is due, of course, to the number of autobid leagues whose champ is not within the top 64 (or now 68) at selection time.
 
NET slipped a little to 13 because the margin wasn’t big enough for the computers. The last 5-0 run from Cal probably hurt a little which is crazy. 25 and 28 in kenpom and Torvik.

It will be challenge a maintain a sub-15 NET because the conference games will likely be closer than the computers project. For example, kenpom has Pitt favored by 13 Saturday and had Pitt by 20 yesterday.
 
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NET slipped a little to 13 because the margin wasn’t big enough for the computers. The last 5-0 run from Cal probably hurt a little which is crazy. 25 and 28 in kenpom and Torvik.

It will be challenge a maintain a sub-15 NET because the conference games will likely be closer than the computers project. For example, kenpom has Pitt favored by 13 Saturday and had Pitt by 20 yesterday.
Yea it’s ridiculous they drop 3 spots because of a meaningless 3 point play at the end of the game there by Cal. Pitt outscored them 63-35 in the last 25 minutes after being down 39-23.

If I am Pitt moving forward here I show no mercy on any team in the last 30-60 seconds of a game if they are up by let’s say by 17 points and have a chance to win by 20 or more. If the NET is gonna operate in a ridiculous way like this then if you are Pitt you have to play this way and the hell with the other team not liking it. When you get screwed out of the tournament like Pitt did last year they have no time to play Mr Nice Guy and Mr I’m not gonna run the score up and show class. By doing this it could costs them a seeding line in the tournament. You have to show no mercy in these games moving forward especially against the bad teams and beat them and beat them badly until the final seconds.
 
Yea it’s ridiculous they drop 3 spots because of a meaningless 3 point play at the end of the game there by Cal. Pitt outscored them 63-35 in the last 25 minutes after being down 39-23.

If I am Pitt moving forward here I show no mercy on any team in the last 30-60 seconds of a game if they are up by let’s say by 17 points and have a chance to win by 20 or more. If the NET is gonna operate in a ridiculous way like this then if you are Pitt you have to play this way and the hell with the other team not liking it. When you get screwed out of the tournament like Pitt did last year they have no time to play Mr Nice Guy and Mr I’m not gonna run the score up and show class. By doing this it could costs them a seeding line in the tournament. You have to show no mercy in these games moving forward especially against the bad teams and beat them and beat them badly until the final seconds.
The committee doesn't seed teams by NET. If they did, we would have been in the tournament last year and Indiana State not only would have been in, but would have had a solid seed. NET is used to break all teams into four quadrants to compare resumes for some bizarre reason.

I agree the system encourages running up the score for efficiency's sake though.
 
Yea it’s ridiculous they drop 3 spots because of a meaningless 3 point play at the end of the game there by Cal. Pitt outscored them 63-35 in the last 25 minutes after being down 39-23.

If I am Pitt moving forward here I show no mercy on any team in the last 30-60 seconds of a game if they are up by let’s say by 17 points and have a chance to win by 20 or more. If the NET is gonna operate in a ridiculous way like this then if you are Pitt you have to play this way and the hell with the other team not liking it. When you get screwed out of the tournament like Pitt did last year they have no time to play Mr Nice Guy and Mr I’m not gonna run the score up and show class. By doing this it could costs them a seeding line in the tournament. You have to show no mercy in these games moving forward especially against the bad teams and beat them and beat them badly until the final seconds.
The five point play at the end had a very minuscule impact on the NET or Kenpom. The impact came from playing the 130ish team at home in the first place.
 
Yea it’s ridiculous they drop 3 spots because of a meaningless 3 point play at the end of the game there by Cal. Pitt outscored them 63-35 in the last 25 minutes after being down 39-23.

If I am Pitt moving forward here I show no mercy on any team in the last 30-60 seconds of a game if they are up by let’s say by 17 points and have a chance to win by 20 or more. If the NET is gonna operate in a ridiculous way like this then if you are Pitt you have to play this way and the hell with the other team not liking it. When you get screwed out of the tournament like Pitt did last year they have no time to play Mr Nice Guy and Mr I’m not gonna run the score up and show class. By doing this it could costs them a seeding line in the tournament. You have to show no mercy in these games moving forward especially against the bad teams and beat them and beat them badly until the final seconds.

This is paranoia.

You guys will drive yourselves insane worrying about small rankings movements every single game.
 
This is paranoia.

You guys will drive yourselves insane worrying about small rankings movements every single game.
Pitt was #11 entering yesterday’s game, and #13 today. Marquette rose from #12 to #8, and we swapped places with Maryland. These teams are all so tightly clustered together that it is sincerely not worth worrying about.

Pitt’s NET is fine. It’s fine if it’s #9, it’s fine if it’s #13, it’s fine if it’s #20.
 
and to call it ridiculous, lol

it's math

or do you want them to track data in game and somehow award based on game flow and comebacks and if so how do you weigh Pitt down 16 near halftime?

someone on another thread, probably a few last year, stated UVA had an obviously better resume than Pitt last year while UVA finished 5-5 last 10 before the tournament bid and Pitt finished 15-5 including the beat down of UVA at UVA in their last 20 and only losses away or neutral

but UVA's resume was obviously better?!? quite possibly true because of mostly Missouri at home in November for Pitt :(

you have to have some objectivity and some system so Pitt simply needs to get healthy and play hard defense for both halves and will be fine imo
 
and to call it ridiculous, lol

it's math

or do you want them to track data in game and somehow award based on game flow and comebacks and if so how do you weigh Pitt down 16 near halftime?

someone on another thread, probably a few last year, stated UVA had an obviously better resume than Pitt last year while UVA finished 5-5 last 10 before the tournament bid and Pitt finished 15-5 including the beat down of UVA at UVA in their last 20 and only losses away or neutral

but UVA's resume was obviously better?!? quite possibly true because of mostly Missouri at home in November for Pitt :(

you have to have some objectivity and some system so Pitt simply needs to get healthy and play hard defense for both halves and will be fine imo
Rebound too
 
I agree with everything mostly everybody has said in response. My point is Pitt should still run up the score in the last minute if it’s gonna benefit them in the NET and the Ken Pom or whatever other ranking system is out there which will ultimately help Pitt get in the tournament. The way Pitt got screwed last year if I’m them I’m taking no chances anywhere and doing every little thing possible to improve my resume and the hell with the other teams if they don’t like it. If they don’t like Pitt running up the score to improve their NET my answer is play better and stop them.
 
I agree with everything mostly everybody has said in response. My point is Pitt should still run up the score in the last minute if it’s gonna benefit them in the NET and the Ken Pom or whatever other ranking system is out there which will ultimately help Pitt get in the tournament. The way Pitt got screwed last year if I’m them I’m taking no chances anywhere and doing every little thing possible to improve my resume and the hell with the other teams if they don’t like it. If they don’t like Pitt running up the score to improve their NET my answer is play better and stop them.
Yeah, Pitt seems to have dropped 3 NET spots after yesterday. I can't imagine we're able to stay in the top 25 of the NET given the dredges of the ACC #s unless we're something like 16-4 with only good losses.
 
A simple fix that I'm sure somebody already mentioned somewhere is to retroactively disregard all possessions that occur after the win probability last exceeded 95% for the purpose of efficiency metrics. This would prevent otherwise-meaningless late game runs from hurting good teams, remove the incentive for running up the score, and allow for bench players and/or walk-ons to get PT.
 
A simple fix that I'm sure somebody already mentioned somewhere is to retroactively disregard all possessions that occur after the win probability last exceeded 95% for the purpose of efficiency metrics. This would prevent otherwise-meaningless late game runs from hurting good teams, remove the incentive for running up the score, and allow for bench players and/or walk-ons to get PT.


It doesn't appear that the NET rankings do anything like that (although no one knows for sure, because the NCAA won't tell anyone exactly what they are doing) but I am about 99% positive that both Pomeroy and Torvik do put limiting factors on games once the margin gets to a certain point.
 
Here's what Torvik says

If you don't want to click the link and read it all, the key paragraph is:



Specifically, I'm going to incorporate the "GameScript +/-" stat that I derive from the play-by-play (where available), and I'm going to alter the GameScript stat so that it disregards anything that happens during "garbage time." The resulting ratings will therefore more reflect how well teams actually perform when the outcome is still in question.
 
NET 14 passed by UK and MSU
Kenpom 22
Torvik 28

Duke 3, Wis 25, WVU 26, OSU 27, Clemson 38,Louisville 40, SMU 42, UNC 44, LSU 60
 
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A simple fix that I'm sure somebody already mentioned somewhere is to retroactively disregard all possessions that occur after the win probability last exceeded 95% for the purpose of efficiency metrics. This would prevent otherwise-meaningless late game runs from hurting good teams, remove the incentive for running up the score, and allow for bench players and/or walk-ons to get PT.

Exactly what I've been saying. Nobody empties their bench anymore because every possession is counted the same regardless of score.
 
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