Without getting tied up in predicting an exact score, or randomly predicting any new injuries under Worst Case (obviously the worst case scenario for the entire season would be a Boyd injury), what do you see as the best case, worst case, and expected case scenarios against Iowa this weekend?
BEST CASE: With Iowa committed to stopping the Pitt running attack, Peterman is able to find receivers in single coverage all over the field, eventually forcing the Hawkeyes to pull back, allowing our RB's to rip off plenty of 5+ yard runs in the second half. Chaney opens up the playbook so we see more sweeps with Boyd & Henderson (and less bubble screens - ugh), softening up the middle for our RB's. Our DL continues to create havoc in the opponent's backfield, forcing running QB Beathard to abort plays early & often, which results in Grigsby dropping him for minimal gains multiple times. Galambos stays in position and doesn't allow any long runs. Mitchell returns and LPitts doesn't commit any PI penalties, so our DB group is solid and Beathard never gets going as a passer, holding Iowa to 2 scores or less on the day. Our offense is able to score at least 2 TD's and control the clock for multiple other scoring opportunities so that we finally hold a nice lead into and through the 4th quarter.
WORST CASE: Beathard continues to look like a world beater by completing lots of passes and running for first downs when our DB's do their jobs. Although not deep at RB, Iowa is able to keep possession a majority of the game with an efficient QB keeping things going (exactly like he did last year in the 2nd half) and a power running attack that eats up clock for long, sustained drives. Again our D is out of position a few too many times, giving up at least 2 long plays that negate a decent overall job the rest of the time. Peterman comes out cold against an improved Iowa secondary, so the Hawkeyes simply crowd the line and force our RB's into short gains most of the day, which has kind of been our MO when running between the tackles so far anyway. Although Boyd catches a few, they double-team him and no one else is targeted enough or able to get open enough for either QB to keep the D honest.
EXPECTED CASE: Beathard will look good at times (he's too talented not to), but our DL will certainly keep him unsettled in the pocket, forcing our LB's to keep him contained when he takes off. Again Pitt will stay primarily focused on stopping Iowa's running game, which they love but they're shallow with RB talent right now, so I can't imagine their RB's averaging more than 3.5 ypc ... unless we are again out of position on a play or two that gets broken for a long TD. I'll gift Iowa 1 long TD, and I'm expecting about 10-13 points from them as a result of actual drives. On offense, Peterman better be looking for his 2nd and 3rd reads because Iowa will certainly target Boyd. Peterman was decent-ish at this against Akron, so his passing alone might be enough to keep Iowa's D honest and allow our RB's to consistently churn yards, probably breaking a handful of rushes for 10+ yards. I am expecting Chaney to throw another wrinkle into the mix in our first B5 match-up, so that will help open things up as well, but I'm not expecting it to be a huge wrinkle that changes our offensive identity (it's been mentioned that a reverse sweep from Boyd to Henderson would wreck an opposing defense, which I wholeheartedly believe and want to see). I think we score at least 4 times, once with a short field (off a turnover or long return - I see both as fairly likely). Ultimately we win if our defense is focused and doesn't get burned more than once, plus this game should be close enough that Blewitt needs to be consistent. I expect Pitt to score 17-27 points, and surrender 14-20.
BEST CASE: With Iowa committed to stopping the Pitt running attack, Peterman is able to find receivers in single coverage all over the field, eventually forcing the Hawkeyes to pull back, allowing our RB's to rip off plenty of 5+ yard runs in the second half. Chaney opens up the playbook so we see more sweeps with Boyd & Henderson (and less bubble screens - ugh), softening up the middle for our RB's. Our DL continues to create havoc in the opponent's backfield, forcing running QB Beathard to abort plays early & often, which results in Grigsby dropping him for minimal gains multiple times. Galambos stays in position and doesn't allow any long runs. Mitchell returns and LPitts doesn't commit any PI penalties, so our DB group is solid and Beathard never gets going as a passer, holding Iowa to 2 scores or less on the day. Our offense is able to score at least 2 TD's and control the clock for multiple other scoring opportunities so that we finally hold a nice lead into and through the 4th quarter.
WORST CASE: Beathard continues to look like a world beater by completing lots of passes and running for first downs when our DB's do their jobs. Although not deep at RB, Iowa is able to keep possession a majority of the game with an efficient QB keeping things going (exactly like he did last year in the 2nd half) and a power running attack that eats up clock for long, sustained drives. Again our D is out of position a few too many times, giving up at least 2 long plays that negate a decent overall job the rest of the time. Peterman comes out cold against an improved Iowa secondary, so the Hawkeyes simply crowd the line and force our RB's into short gains most of the day, which has kind of been our MO when running between the tackles so far anyway. Although Boyd catches a few, they double-team him and no one else is targeted enough or able to get open enough for either QB to keep the D honest.
EXPECTED CASE: Beathard will look good at times (he's too talented not to), but our DL will certainly keep him unsettled in the pocket, forcing our LB's to keep him contained when he takes off. Again Pitt will stay primarily focused on stopping Iowa's running game, which they love but they're shallow with RB talent right now, so I can't imagine their RB's averaging more than 3.5 ypc ... unless we are again out of position on a play or two that gets broken for a long TD. I'll gift Iowa 1 long TD, and I'm expecting about 10-13 points from them as a result of actual drives. On offense, Peterman better be looking for his 2nd and 3rd reads because Iowa will certainly target Boyd. Peterman was decent-ish at this against Akron, so his passing alone might be enough to keep Iowa's D honest and allow our RB's to consistently churn yards, probably breaking a handful of rushes for 10+ yards. I am expecting Chaney to throw another wrinkle into the mix in our first B5 match-up, so that will help open things up as well, but I'm not expecting it to be a huge wrinkle that changes our offensive identity (it's been mentioned that a reverse sweep from Boyd to Henderson would wreck an opposing defense, which I wholeheartedly believe and want to see). I think we score at least 4 times, once with a short field (off a turnover or long return - I see both as fairly likely). Ultimately we win if our defense is focused and doesn't get burned more than once, plus this game should be close enough that Blewitt needs to be consistent. I expect Pitt to score 17-27 points, and surrender 14-20.
