Burton eligible
- Thread starter BballinsiderfromPitt
- Start date
We need him to be more consistent, I agree. I think he needs to be mentally tougher and more confident, I also agree.
But this is what Horton did against ACC competition last year.
105.9 ORTG
9.9 points per game
2.4 rebounds per game
39% 3 point shooting
23 assists to 16 turnovers
Those are some pretty darn solid stats for a sophomore against all acc teams. And I think those numbers will be improved upon with a year under his belt.
Horton admitted to being really nervous after taking a whole year off basketball. I think next year he will be much more ready to go and confident early on this time around.
It is defensively we need him to be much more active while communicating better and understanding defensive positioning better. He was a liability on defense last year. We need him to be average on defense this year, which he is capable of doing that if he listens to the Coach.
It's not often I agree with
Vader's Bball analysis.
His description of Burton
is IMO, right on the money.
He definitely strengthens
this year's guard group. Is
there an elite guard in this
group? Obviously not, but
I see them as a solid group
that collectively can be
the best group Capel has
had here.
Now with that said, none of
them IMO is as talented as
not only X, but also Trey. I
do agree with Bballinsider's
assessment of X. He was
by far our most talented
guard the past 3 years, but
for many of the reasons
already mentioned in this
thread, he was a huge
liability here. I expect him
to show his true talents at
Indiana. A different coach,
and for his sake one who
hopefully makes it clear from
jumpstreet what his
expectations are, and
will get him to the level
to which he's capable.
We'll see.
Vader's Bball analysis.
His description of Burton
is IMO, right on the money.
He definitely strengthens
this year's guard group. Is
there an elite guard in this
group? Obviously not, but
I see them as a solid group
that collectively can be
the best group Capel has
had here.
Now with that said, none of
them IMO is as talented as
not only X, but also Trey. I
do agree with Bballinsider's
assessment of X. He was
by far our most talented
guard the past 3 years, but
for many of the reasons
already mentioned in this
thread, he was a huge
liability here. I expect him
to show his true talents at
Indiana. A different coach,
and for his sake one who
hopefully makes it clear from
jumpstreet what his
expectations are, and
will get him to the level
to which he's capable.
We'll see.
You're a good dude. And you're into the know much more than most here.
Don't be a douchebag. X was obviously talented, and yes we didn't win the games without him, initially. But it became pretty clear it was a much better team without him. Granted , the cupboard was bare that played into what you clearly believe was a need for him. Femi, while lacking in talent around him and the explosive nature of what X brings, was exposed on one level and entirely composed on another level you aren't giving enough credit for IMO. Femi is a really good player, and he showed that. Hopefully we have enough staff to keep that momentum going.
I'm glad he's gone. Wish him the best. But his own inner lack of having it is what did him in here. He could of easily been a star but he wasn't ready. And that ain't a knock, most young men aren't ready. Just means at the time he crossed paths with Pitt, he wasn't ready. Things change and maybe IU is the right place. We shall see.
Conference Stats in ACC play X vs Femi
ORTG Offensive Rating
X- 100.6
Femi- 94.8
EFG Field Goal %
X-45.3
Femi-48.8
Usage Rate
X--29.5
Femi-20.1
OR Rebound %
X- 1.8%
Femi- 2.8 %
DR Rebound %
X- 10.4%
Femi-12.5%
3 point shooting percentage
X-28%
Femi 35.3%
Midrange shooting percentage
X- 25%
Femi 38.9%
Turnover Rate %
X- 23
Femi- 20
Assist Rate
X- 41.5%
Femi- 21.9%
Free Throw Rate
X- 41.6%
Femi- 67.9%
Those numbers above are way more favorable to Femi in many categories than many probably assumed before looking at them and Femi was significantly better as the season continued from start to finish. The biggest differences summed up are X's usage rate was way higher, X's assist rate was much higher, and Femi was better at everything else including shooting as a freshmen coming off a major broken arm injury before the season.
Femi has everything needed to be a major breakout player next year. In fact, I think he is going to be the top breakout player in the entire ACC. With that said, Femi having a major breakout next year does not move the needle in terms of wins for next season imho.
When X and Toney left at seasons end and Champ went into his major shooting slump, our offense was still running at a pretty good level in terms of offensive efficiency, It was our team defense that was a mess. And going into next year, I am most concerned about our team defense once again. I don't think replacing the scoring of either X or Toney is going to be "that" difficult. I do think replacing Champ's production including rebounding and fixing our overall team defense and interior defense is a much higher concern.
I also think we are going to play quite a bit less zone next year because Brown is no longer on the team. And I also expect defensive pressure to be extended and cranked up with much better depth pieces which I think will be a good thing. With all new frontcourt pieces and a new rotation, our defense could potentially be fairly bad early on until we get chemistry established and the new guys understand their responsibilities. Gueye's role as a backup center is quite important and not getting talked about enough. And I do think Big John will be productive on offense and rebounding. But he has to also really improve on defense.
Let’s just hope we don’t have a reason to overreact after 1 game like last year’s start provided.
Femi also ran the offense without Toney and Justin was a total shell of himself the final 2 weeks of the season. I put zero stock into their record with Femi - it was clear he controlled the game way better than Xavier did.
Why would you trust Mike Woodson? What has he done at the college level to earn any trust as a coach? He had 2 good years in the NBA as a coach. I'm not sure why he's getting praise from you lol
If you look at X's numbers, he's impressive. When you watch him workout, he's impressive. When you add in his inability to have any feel for the game, and the fact he's a massive ego who thinks he's the best player on the court, you start to realize he's not a winning player.
If he had a jumper, he's a sure fire NBA guy. I'm not talking lottery, but he's every bit as talented as lower end bench guards in the NBA. The issue is that nobody will take a chance on him if he doesn't change his style of play. Teams need guys who can come in and run the second unit. Play 6-8 minutes each half, don't turn it over, and run the offense. He can't do any of that right now. He's a turnover machine who's totally out of control.
The turnovers is a really key point between X and Femi too. I should of highlighted that better because when you look at the TO % above, it looks pretty equal.
The difference is, however, Femi greatly improved his ball control as the season continued. In Femi's last 15 ACC games, he had 40 assists and 21 total turnovers, or 1.4 turnovers per game over the final 15 games of the acc season. That is really solid for a freshmen as he cut his turnovers down significantly as the season went on while his minutes increased as the season went on.
With X, you don't know what you are going to get because he is wildly inconsistent. Against St. Francis, a game we lost, X had 7 turnovers. At seasons end he was still having 7 turnover games like what he did against Georgia Tech. Yea, its true X has the capability to take a game over on offense and help win the game. Its also true that X turns into a turnover machine and was a major reason the team lost close games.
Its much better to be consistent as opposed to being really good followed up by really bad. Consistency wins more games.
Those of us who are
saying how talented X
was/is are not arguing
with above statement.
Personally I have also
been saying the same
thing in this thread and
in many others over the
past few years.
Bottom line...X is VERY
talented, yet as I already
posted, he's a liability.
His immaturity, trying
to do too much, plus
whatever team chemistry
problems existed, have
led to his being a liability.
The point always has been
that he has talent, and IMO
more than any of our other
guards he's played with and
that includes now.
Statistics don't lie, but they
also don't always tell a true
story.
YES, he's been "inconsistent"
and it's reflected in his stats,
but the guy undisputedly IMO
has more innate talent than
the guards we have here now.
I expect him to do well at
Indiana, yet at the same time
I expect us to be better without
him. He's talented as hell!
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Burton's gonna play more than some people think. He's really the only other option at PG and immediately becomes their best defender. He'll get 25 minutes a game, and maybe more if he can shoot it with any consistency.
From what I've watched of him online, reminds me of a Jaron Brown type.
From what I've watched of him online, reminds me of a Jaron Brown type.
And with Femi, you have absolutely no idea what you’re going to get. He can’t shoot and once he’s actually a focal point of scouting reports with a full exhibition season ahead of the ACC season teams will be gameplanning for his drives. He is a complete wildcard for what he will bring the team and everything else is a complete projection, as it is with Nike and Burton. Anyone trying to say different is just lying to themselves. The known quantity is what Horton can potentially bring to the table as he was scouted for an entire year and still averaged 8.9 PPG. He is what he is.
1. Woodson will come in and have instant credibility
2. Woodson won’t have to put up with his shit
3. Woodson is an NBA coach who is used to handling egos
4. Woodson has a great staff
5. We have no idea if it was instructed for X to control the offense. If it wasn’t, why was he never benched except for fouls (for the most part)
XJ has a better chance of bouncing back and having a huge senior season with a talented cast around him than not. And my prediction is 2 years from now Femi will be the maligned one on the Lair. It’s a pitt syndrome. I remember people clamoring for CK based on what he did in limited time over BK. Levance etc. Femi is turning 21, I wouldn’t expect some Great Leap Forward from him. He is what he is.
I agree. Thinking positively,
I'm judging him more on the
year he had at W.ST than
what he did at TTech. He
sat behind more talented
guards at TT. He played
27minutespg at W.ST. and
averaged 10ppg. That ain't
bad at a program better
than Pitt's been lately.
IMO Femi will start, Burton
will probably get minutes
behind him at the point, and
will compete with Horton
and Sibande for playing time
at the off guard and maybe
on the wing.That's pretty
good scenario for our
backcourt.
He played behind more talented guards like Mac McClung who this board didn’t want to recruit last year while I did…
Right. Agree with the bulk of this.
I think the keys to the team will be defense, toughness and consistency, that is why I see a smaller role for Horton.
Nike and Burton have played major minutes. They are experienced players that have been key elements to their teams.
To use the word projection in regard to these two players is…. Well you pick the word.
I've been beating the X
debate to death on here
for years. I've already
posted that I expect him to
do well at Indiana under a
completely different coach.
Despite Vader's ORG stats
etc, it's easy to see X's talent.
I'm giving Femi a little more
credit than above. I feel he'll
do a decent job because
he'll have a better cast
around him. For one, he'll
have players inside that
can actually catch the ball.
He will also be part of a
backcourt that has depth
(that's a first) and some,
although not great, talent.
Consistency gives you something to build upon. Hard to build towards anything without it. If we can get consistent guard play, it will hopefully help buffer growing pains with our bigs. Prior to this year, we had non-existent bigs and inconsistent guards. We got consistency from JC until we didn't. Can't expect to win like that.
I think the big piece of the puzzle is how good the bigs can be. I think this can be a decent season if they can be anything approaching an average ACC frontcourt by conference play.
McClung was the best player
on the TTech team. He led
the team in minutes played
and was the leading scorer.
I have no idea what this
board wanted or not wanted.
What really matters is that
Burton had five guards
getting more minutes and
averaging more poinstpg.
at TT. He got the playing
time at W.St. and I'm
judging him more by that.
On the other hand having
five guards ahead of him
at TT is somewhat of a
concern. He'll get time
here because although
we have depth in the back
court it's basically average
talent.....not great, not bad.
IMO average.
Correct. Neither has produced at the HM level through an entire season. Thanks for letting me pick the word
So to recap your post, no one on this board wanted the best guard on Texas tech prior to last year but the 5th best guard will be a major contributor. Got it.
No idea who the "no
one" wanting McClung
is on here, but as for me
I've posted that our
backcourt is "average."
That "average" includes
Burton.
Not sure if you're quoting
me, but fitting into the
guard rotation somewhere,
and yet to be determined,
isn't exactly calling him a
"major contributor."
You really love patting yourself on the back. How’s that arm feel?
You don’t find it comical that no one thought McClung could help us but his backup is sure fire contributor?
He may be Wichita State Burton but people acting like hes anything but a wildcard are lying to themselves.
He also said Burton was unlikely to get a waiver, but he's focused on his Mac McClung claim. A little SMF/Vader coming through.
Here's some simple
non-Vader, non ORG
stats that can give
somewhat of a picture.
At WST. he led the team
in minutes played 27pg.
He averaged 10.3 pg. He
was a starter.
At TT he sat behind five
guards and got less playing
time than those five. He
averaged 19 minutes pg,
4ppg. So not having seen
him play, common sense
just might suggest he'll do
somewhere in between
here at Pitt. IMO he's an
average talented guard
joining an average at best
backcourt.
Vader...this is a common
sense way of using stats.
Once I see him play in real
game time, I'll use stats,
BUT...I'll also the eye test.
non-Vader, non ORG
stats that can give
somewhat of a picture.
At WST. he led the team
in minutes played 27pg.
He averaged 10.3 pg. He
was a starter.
At TT he sat behind five
guards and got less playing
time than those five. He
averaged 19 minutes pg,
4ppg. So not having seen
him play, common sense
just might suggest he'll do
somewhere in between
here at Pitt. IMO he's an
average talented guard
joining an average at best
backcourt.
Vader...this is a common
sense way of using stats.
Once I see him play in real
game time, I'll use stats,
BUT...I'll also the eye test.
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We've been down this path before...
Many people said Horton's 3 point shooting would be much worse going up against ACC defenders with the line further back. That happened to be proven false as I said it would. I predicted 100-110 ORTG preseason because he is a pure shooter and shooting transfers. He finished 105 ORTG for the entire season this year. Horton will be over 105 ORTG next year, that is a lock.
Last season, I used the ORTG numbers and the sample size of the last 15 games for Toney and Champ to show they would breakout because they both broke out the back half of the season prior in a big way. I had this very discussion with Joe and bballinsider back then. I predicted both to be between 110-120 ORTG this year. Champ finished 115 ORTG, Toney 107 ORTG Both broke out.
I have 3 years of support of Burton playing a Top 50-80 Nationally rated schedule. His ORTG was between 95-100 all 3 years. I will guarantee his ORTG is at least as good next year against the same type of schedule as it was the prior 3 years. The competition in the Big 12 was just as tough as it was in the ACC. Further, Burton has a midrange game with a 3 year track record of consistently making jump shots against a Top 50-80 Nationally rated schedule 3 years in a row. There is no guess work here. He is going to make jump shots from the midrange next year, guaranteed. He will be around 100 ORTG next year which is an NCAA quality type rotation player.
As for Femi. Im going to go back to what I said originally over a year ago before he even committed to Pitt. He has the same height, the same 6'11 wingspan, and some of the same skill set, along with a strong work ethic to be the next Denzel Valentine. Femi's stats in year 1 were better than Valantine's in year 1. I will guarantee right now, Femi's stats in year 2 will be better than Valentine's in year 2. I'm looking for around 13-5-5 averages with an ORTG of 105-115 next year for Odukale. And my confidence level in him doing that is high.
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Horton shot 5 percentage points worse than he did at Delaware overall and almost 4 percent points worse from 3. Theres a big difference in a 41 percent shooter and a 37 percent shooter.
And these were very small sample sizes and his play dropped off a cliff with the emergence of Nike and Femi at the end of the year with no X. Sadly, he could be the odd man out in the rotation.
He was 39.1% in ACC play and he made 2.1 made threes per game in ACC play which was good enough for 10th best in league play. We know he started off very slowly.
Yes, we've been down this
path before, because you
continue to basically ONLY
use ORTG as your basis for
judging a player.
I continue to contend that
a hell of a lot more goes
into it than that. Anyone
who's been around the game
as a player or a coach can
watch a player and tell what
a player can or cannot do on
the floor.
When a player is recruited and
brought in on an OV, (I know
this first hand from experience),
they are usually given floor
time with players already on
the team. The coach is watching,
(sometimes from behind a
window in his office). Believe me,
he ain't looking at statistics. He's
looking at REAL playing time.
Can the player hold his own?.....Is
he over his head?...etc. etc.
When a coach is on a recruiting
trip in a h.s. gym, he's looking
at REAL playing time. Now, do
stats play a part? Yes, of course
they do. Is ORTG important? Yes
of course. My beef with you is
you only see these players
through a statistical "lens."
There's a hell of a lot more to it
than THAT.
X was good at times and horrendous in others.
Being the starting PG at Pitt resulted in 10 whopping wins. He like the rest of the team garners responsibility for that. He’s not absolved of it.
Woodson has credibility because he's coming from the NBA. It's an impressive feat being an NBA coach - no matter what team and position, but there's a reason he hasn't been an HC in 7 years.
To your point about the egos - he had no choice but to deal with Melo's shit. If he told Melo to play a certain way, he was gone, not Melo. He had to run his offense through Carmelo - he didn't have a choice. I just don't see much from a guy who has little HC experience and literally zero college hoops experience to come in and be a staple at Indiana. The odds of him flaming out are way better than him coming in and winning.
If you're a casual fan of the sport, and you see that X is on the transfer market you gotta wonder what happened at Pitt. His numbers and his measurables are very note worthy. You would have to think you're getting a total stud at the PG position, and honestly he should be a stud, but he's not. I watched his every dribble the last 3 years and his style and his antics do not result in wins. We can talk about talent and him not having anyone under the hoop or anyone that can shoot, but even when Horton was hot he wouldn't look for him. When Justin had it going, he wouldn't look for him. He has literally zero feel on the court. He could be 0-12 and still think he has the hot hand.
I absolutely love Xavier and on the payboard (under a different alias at the time) beat his drum for the last 3 years. I would go out of my way to argue with those who thought he was the problem. He's very talented, but that's not what's always needed to win basketball games - especially at that position. James Robinson wasn't nearly as talented as Xavier, but it's not even a question who you'd rather have running your offense. Someone who's gonna get the ball down the court and get you into your sets. Someone who knows when to push the pace, and when to back off. I know you're a smart bball mind and I know you agree with this. He has zero feel for the game when he's out there.
The stats are only one thing. The height and wingspan and athletic ability is another. Guarding Odukale is going to be very difficult for opposing guards. Carlik Jones was one of the Top players in the entire ACC last year, he was in the running for ACC player of the year. And Odukale made Jones look extremely bad because he shot and passed the ball right over him. He literally scored on him about 4 plays in a row.
When you have a 6'5 point guard with a 6'11 wingspan it is extremely rare. The height and wingspan difference is why Jones got killed on the defensive end. Its why Jarrod West or any other smurf guard is going to to have major problems when he is making shots. Because like Valentine, he is going to shoot and pass right over you because he is 6'5 with a 6'11 wingspan. I don't need a stat or ORTG to show that. Ill just post the Pitt vs Louisville video and you can watch Jones get repeatedly beat.
Totally agree! I've been saying
the same about X today, and
for years past. The Robinson
example is perfect. He was a
true PG. X was far superior
when it comes to innate
talent, but as a PG any coach
would go with Robinson. BTW,
that doesn't mean X sits. A
good coach would find a way
for him to be on the floor and
not be a liability as he was as
a PG here at Pitt.
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Good! we can agree,
now that you're off
ORTG's lol. What I've
been trying to say to
you is that coaches look
at so many OTHER factors.
Looking at a PG for example;
his assists, turn over ratio,
shooting%, steals , etc. etc.
are all very important stats.
Looking at real time without
stats I want to see what
degree of floor vision he has.
Does he get the other players
involved, can he recognize a
D and adjust to it? Can he go
right and left equally.....foot
speed, quickness....etc. etc.
how does he handle a double
team? Those are just some
of the many things to look at
when judging. I like your use
of ORTG's, all I'm saying is, it
isn't anywhere near enough
when it comes to judging a
player and what he can
bring to a team.
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