they are all rated higher than Aaron Donald and James Conner were!
Hail to Pitt!
Dave
Hail to Pitt!
Dave
Do you know what I love about our 3* recruits?
- Thread starter dave97
- Start date
AD and JC were great players. But what did their teams win? Nada.
It's great and all to grab a couple of diamonds in the rough here and there by recruiting 2-3 stars - but not all of them turn out to be great players, a majority play to their ranking. To win at the highest level you must recruit at the highest level. Banking on all 3 stars to turn into all americans is a recipe for 6-6, 7-5 seasons.
It's great and all to grab a couple of diamonds in the rough here and there by recruiting 2-3 stars - but not all of them turn out to be great players, a majority play to their ranking. To win at the highest level you must recruit at the highest level. Banking on all 3 stars to turn into all americans is a recipe for 6-6, 7-5 seasons.
Players are rated by recruiting analyst. Coaches are the ones that decide who is good, fits into their schemes and most importantly, have upside. P5 offers are the measuring stick in my opinion. Is it a great recruiting win if you land a 4 star player with only two P5 offers? No. It tells me, not too many coaches believe that player can help their program. There are exceptions (Donald, Conner) But the rule says otherwise.
I've been putting some stats together that I will share hopefully by this weekend. I'll give you a little heads up on what I have found so far:
Going into the 2010 season, Wannstedt had 27 players on the roster that had more than five P5 offers.
Going into this season, Narduzzi has 36 players with five or more P5 offers. That is only after two and a half recruiting classes (2015, 2016, 2017).
Of the 14 players he's already landed for the 2018 class, nine of them have five or more P5 offers.
Both DW and Narduzzi have landed 4 star players with less than five P5 offers. In some cases, they only had one. DW had more of those players on his 2010 roster (Burns, Nix, Jacobson, etc.)
Narduzzi is landing players that other P5 schools want.
I'll be back with more details later...
I've been putting some stats together that I will share hopefully by this weekend. I'll give you a little heads up on what I have found so far:
Going into the 2010 season, Wannstedt had 27 players on the roster that had more than five P5 offers.
Going into this season, Narduzzi has 36 players with five or more P5 offers. That is only after two and a half recruiting classes (2015, 2016, 2017).
Of the 14 players he's already landed for the 2018 class, nine of them have five or more P5 offers.
Both DW and Narduzzi have landed 4 star players with less than five P5 offers. In some cases, they only had one. DW had more of those players on his 2010 roster (Burns, Nix, Jacobson, etc.)
Narduzzi is landing players that other P5 schools want.
I'll be back with more details later...
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Players rated higher and lower than those 2 have sucked. Players that coaches like narduzzi, chryst etc all saw something in all sucked. Comparing players based off of ratings or things like that are stupid. Nobody knows which directions kids will go, that's the excitement of recruiting.
Lucas Nix and Jacobson were national recruits. Until everyone knew early in the process they were going to Pitt no matter what.
I agree 100 percent with you as far as judging players by offers instead of stars. Give me a 3 star with offers from Georgia, auburn, LSU, VT over a 4 star with offers from Indiana, Duke, Wake Forest, Syracuse all day every day
How are you accounting for offers? What is on their rivals profile? Some kids list every team they've had contact with. Some only list a handful.
You mentioning Lucas Nix as an example of having "only 1 offer" tells me this "research" isn't going to be worth much.
A lot of our 3 stars have a rivals rating of 5.7. 4 stars start off as 5.8. Some of the 5.7 will move up, some of the 5.8 will move down. You can't tell me there is a lot of difference between the two.
You're nitpicking a sample size. I can do that too.
Alabama has out-recruited Pitt for the past decade and won 4 national championships.
^See what I did there?
Here's the fatal flaw with your stats: 2018 offers does not equal 2007 offers. Things have totally changed in the last 10 years. Back then, schools were offering like 50-70 kids per cycle. Now schools are offering more like 200-250. Because of this, there are a ton more kids with p5 offers. This is why people talk about uncommitable offers now. If all 200 kids wanted to come to Pitt for 2018, it could never happen. The offers fall into 3 categories: 1. Player not interested 2. Uncommitable (back up plan for school) 3. Committable offer and mutual interest from player. Fro example, if Kevin Doyle called up Narduzzi right now and said he wanted to commit, the answer would be no. Pitt has Patti and does not have room for another QB.
In the end, talking recruiting and stars is fun, but it's all artificial. The true measure is results on the field. I don't think narduzzi can be judged just yet. 2018 he will have all his own players so things will be different.
Also, I'm tired of people shortchanging Aaron Donald. He was ranked 353 nationally which is pretty damn good. He would be Pitts highest ranked recruit this cycle.
pittdan77
Athletic Director
There is value in being able to identify talent as a coach, but there is more value in being able to close that talent on signing day. The higher a player is ranked, the better chance he has of becoming a good college player. We have 2 decades of evidence supporting this. Paris Ford is more likely to be an All ACC player than Jason Pinnock.
This reaffirms something I posted a few days ago based on what I thought, but didn't have the data to back it up.
Thank you for doing this!
I put basically zero value in these clowns that give out stars. I give TONS of value to what coaches think, especially ones that have a actual track of winning.
Stars = marketing.
Stars = marketing.
Huh? Texas played for the national championship in 2010. TCU played for a national championship how many times during that time frame?
Why would P5 offers be the measuring stick? Shouldn't programs whose level you want to be on be the measuring stick? Indiana and Boston College and Vanderbilt and Kansas are those programs for a reason. If a player has an offer list from all 4 of those programs and Pitt, that's 5 P5 offers. But I'm not sure why anybody would take much comfort from getting a player those programs wanted, but nobody else wanted?
How many players ranked below 500 does OSU/Fsu/Clemson/Alabama have in their current recruiting classes? The last 4 national championship coaches seem to agree with these "clowns" like Rivals and 247.
I agree that offer list is probably more important than star ranking.
There are exceptions to that. Some kid commits to a school his junior year, completely shuts it down, so the major programs don't even bother and he doesn't really tweet out the "blessed to receive an offer from..." tweet, because he doesn't care, he has shut it down. Then the lack of offer list shouldn't really be held against him.
But there is a strong correlation between star ranking and offer list. Show me a kid with a big time offer list, and most of the time I'll show you a kid that is a 4* recruit. The overlap between major offer list and star ranking is huge. And that's because talent is talent. It's just as obvious to Urban Meyer as it is to the scouts at Rivals or 247. So the big time players have both an offer from Meyer and Saban and Jimbo and Dabo, as well as a 4* ranking.
There are exceptions to that. Some kid commits to a school his junior year, completely shuts it down, so the major programs don't even bother and he doesn't really tweet out the "blessed to receive an offer from..." tweet, because he doesn't care, he has shut it down. Then the lack of offer list shouldn't really be held against him.
But there is a strong correlation between star ranking and offer list. Show me a kid with a big time offer list, and most of the time I'll show you a kid that is a 4* recruit. The overlap between major offer list and star ranking is huge. And that's because talent is talent. It's just as obvious to Urban Meyer as it is to the scouts at Rivals or 247. So the big time players have both an offer from Meyer and Saban and Jimbo and Dabo, as well as a 4* ranking.
Agreed. Like was mentioned earlier there also are guys who get early offers like Todd Sibley and then see some of them disappear. That can happen because teams fill up and it can happen just because they "offered" to offer and when they actually fully evaluate the player and their board, the recruit just isn't a target. A lot of kids get "offers" contingent on coming to camp AND performing well, but the kids still report that as an offer and it goes up on their profile.
Before the Green commitment - Pitt's class was ranked 43rd by offers. They finished 36th in 2017 and 26th in 2016.
There's a website that ranks recruits by their offers. It's called ranked by offers.
Gotcha. Interesting concept, although I think it is still incredibly flawed because it relies on offers reported by recruits. The example discussed earlier (Lucas Nix) would look like a horrible recruit based on that site and QBs, in general, would be extremely undervalued.
They are all flawed but things like early commitments and QBs would be undervalued for all teams and basically cancel each other out for all teams.
They won the Rose Bowl and were screwed out of the playoffs another year. They had a much better 10 year run with much less heralded recruits.
Hail to Pitt
Dave
First, the recruiting sites do take offers into consideration when ranking recruits and the quality of the schools offering can be more important than the number. Then, you throw in the fact that the list of offers comes from the recruit himself and may be a bit of bull****. In the end, the recruiting services are our best measuring stick, not perfect, but pretty good.
Except the offers listed for many recruits can be unbelievably inflated or under representative. A kid with offers from Purdue or Memphis or App State might show only a few schools/offers because he isn't even considering some, while other kids have every offer under the sun listed, even though they may have far fewer than the kid who really doesn't care about that and many of their offers aren't legitimate.
