Let's just play the Steelers, we'd sellout then. (Cue terrible yinzer joke about how the steelers suck).
Do you prefer Pitt wins #9 against Minn/Ind OR loses toe-to-toe with LSU/Georgia?
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Let's just play the Steelers, we'd sellout then. (Cue terrible yinzer joke about how the steelers suck).
Yes.... but how disastrous would *LOSING* to a 5-7 Big Ten team? It's not like Pitt would be 100% chance to win that game.
Negative impact of losing to 5-7 Big Ten team: Great
Reward for beating a 5-7 Big Ten team: Small
Negative impact of losing to a 9-3 SEC team: Small
Reward for beating a 9-3 SEC team: HUGE!
Indiana or Minnesota would not be a guaranteed win. The reward for a win would be very small... the disastrous impact of a loss would be tremendous. Conversely, the impact of a loss to LSU would be very small... but the reward for a win would be OFF THE CHARTS HUGE.
Risk/Reward folks. Pocket Aces against one other player has a high probability of winning, but the pot is likely to be very small. 10-J offsuit against one other player has a low probability of winning, but the pot is more likely to be very large.
I agree with this. I will be super excited knowing we will be playing a LSU and honestly, ho-hum if we have to play a 5-7 Big 10 team. Imagine getting our 9th win against LSU?? Wow would that be awesome. And since basically every game we played was close I don't see them blowing us out either. Please no Indiana or Minnesota, please. Wisconsin yes though.
I know it's a poll, but you guys are making this too much of an either/or debate.
Context matters.
For a program like Pitt, which has been wallering at 6-6 for the past couple years, and has had issues since 2005, you can have a moral victory going toe to toe with a top flight program. It's a sign of progression. Obviously, you eventually do have to win a few of those games, but right now, it is an option. The problem is, I don't think LSU (or Georgia) provide that this season. Now, at defending National Champion Clemson next year certainly does, but not those above mentioned SEC schools this year.
Now again, 9 wins is 9 wins, but there won't be much ability to spin in it should that win come against a dumpster fire like Illinois.
As it is, I'll say it again, right now the only team I don't want to in the bowl game is Indiana. That really is a lose-lose situation.
Context matters.
For a program like Pitt, which has been wallering at 6-6 for the past couple years, and has had issues since 2005, you can have a moral victory going toe to toe with a top flight program. It's a sign of progression. Obviously, you eventually do have to win a few of those games, but right now, it is an option. The problem is, I don't think LSU (or Georgia) provide that this season. Now, at defending National Champion Clemson next year certainly does, but not those above mentioned SEC schools this year.
Now again, 9 wins is 9 wins, but there won't be much ability to spin in it should that win come against a dumpster fire like Illinois.
As it is, I'll say it again, right now the only team I don't want to in the bowl game is Indiana. That really is a lose-lose situation.
Pitt would be 5-point underdogs against LSU. You think we have no chance to win that?
Pitt would be 75-point underdogs against the Steelers. Your argument is silly.
I agree we'd have a chance to beat LSU. However, the poll asks either win or lose.
This board would be absolutely rocking if we are slotted to play LSU in a few weeks. It would be so much fun leading up to gametime and hearing what Narduzzi had to say. Plus the potential recruits would be so much more interested.
How big of a selling point is "We went into the Bronx and got beat by an Indiana team that lost to PSU."
The risk of *THAT* happening, and completely killing all momentum of this season, and likely turning what was a "successful" season into something that is looked at as "same old Pitt" is much, much, much worse than losing to a 9-3 SEC team.
Ranking the possible outcomes on a scale of -10 to +10:
1. Win against LSU: +10
2. Win against Indiana/Minnesota: +2
3. Loss against LSU: -2
4. Loss against Indiana/Minnesota -10
Give me the +10/-2 result over the +2/-10 result any day.
I voted to playing LSU or Georgia. Why? Because the worse case scenario is playing Minnesota or Indiana and losing... Have you thought about that????????
Playing LSU or Georgia is a high reward, low risk game. Nobody would expect us to win. If we win, it would be a huge shot in the arm. If we lose, we were suppose to lose so no one bats an eyelash...
If we play Minnesota or Indiana, and lose, all hell breaks loose. Our fans will start questioning the whole season. PSU will have more ammo on the recruiting trail, especially since they beat Indiana... I don't want to think about it....
Playing LSU or Georgia is a high reward, low risk game. Nobody would expect us to win. If we win, it would be a huge shot in the arm. If we lose, we were suppose to lose so no one bats an eyelash...
If we play Minnesota or Indiana, and lose, all hell breaks loose. Our fans will start questioning the whole season. PSU will have more ammo on the recruiting trail, especially since they beat Indiana... I don't want to think about it....
Yeah, but that wasn't the question this thread asked. So if you're asking would I rather lose to LSU or Indiana, yeah, I'd rather lose to LSU. But if you're asking what the poll is asking, I think anyone picking the L is out of their minds.
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Given the choice between the two options in this poll, I'd take the win.
But it's a false choice.
We don't know the outcome of the games.... so the choice really is between the high reward/low risk option of playing LSU and the low reward/high risk option of playing Indiana/Minnesota.
Winning 9 games and winning a bowl game is not "low reward." Those are the real results of beating Indiana/Minnesota, not discussions regarding how legit a win over one of those teams is. If we down 5-7 Minnesota by 1 point in 3OT, by the end of the summer all fans and recruits will remember is that Pitt was 9-4 and won a bowl game (over a P5 team, no less)...both of which are a big deal for this program right now.
If you need your moral victories for 2015, bask in what coulda/shoulda been with 12-0 Iowa and 11-1 UNC.
That line of thinking is the same as those fans that would rather win the NIT than get a bad seed and potentially lose in the first round of the NCAA.
Would you rather Pitt win the Coastal with an 8-4 record and get blown out in the ACC Title game? Or come in second in the coastal at 9-3 and win the Belk bowl to finish 10-3?
If you choose the second option, you're a wimp of a fan and have no faith in your team. And i guarantee you HCPN wouldn't choose the second option.
College football and basketball have nothing in common other than the names on the front of the jerseys.
As for this hypothetical, I know darn well that Pitt Poker would be complaining to high hell if we lost a bowl game to anyone under any circumstances.
I'd rather win, but playing Indiana is a no win scenario really. If Pitt wins, people still don't give Pitt credit for beating a really good team. If they lose, that just looks really bad. In hindsight I'd take the win, right now a month before the game will be played... give me the best matchup, I want Pitt to beat the best teams. If they lose it sucks, but agree with the above post, it's cowardly to say you only want to face an opponent because you know you will beat them.
I would surely take the win, but the risk of losing to a bad 5-7 B1G team isn't worth the upside IMO.
Exactly. And really, Indiana historically is such a terrible football program, the possibility of wining a bowl game for them is like being in the National Championship for bigger schools. So they will definitely be prepared for the game. Indiana going to a bowl game is seriously a dream season for them. Pitt on the other hand is simply just looking to get to win #9, it is no different for us than the Syracuse, Virginia, or even Akron game.
If people think there is very little upside to beating Minnesota or Indiana because they're not good opponents, you're completely discounting the short-term and long-term upside of going 9-4.
What upside was there to losing-but-should-have-won against ND in 2012? Still an L on the books, still a 6-7 final record. We've already played 3 top-10 teams; it's not like fans who want win #9, even if it comes against a losing team, are asking for Pitt to play 12 to 13 lemons each season. Considering where the evolution of our program is, the momentum of fan support, player optimism, and recruiting buzz is all helped by a 9th win. The only people who will poo-poo it at any point will be SOP "fans" and Ped State idiots. I want the best chance to go 9-4, and that best chance doesn't come by facing LSU south of the Mason-Dixon Line.
What upside was there to losing-but-should-have-won against ND in 2012? Still an L on the books, still a 6-7 final record. We've already played 3 top-10 teams; it's not like fans who want win #9, even if it comes against a losing team, are asking for Pitt to play 12 to 13 lemons each season. Considering where the evolution of our program is, the momentum of fan support, player optimism, and recruiting buzz is all helped by a 9th win. The only people who will poo-poo it at any point will be SOP "fans" and Ped State idiots. I want the best chance to go 9-4, and that best chance doesn't come by facing LSU south of the Mason-Dixon Line.
Here's what's wrong with this "math."
1) A win over LSU is a +10 for fan buzz for about 2 months, and after that the SOP contingent reminds us forever that LSU was having a down year so bad they were unranked and on the verge of firing their coach. You all know this is true. I still agree this is the best possible outcome - no question.
2) A win over Indy/Minny is worth far more than 1/5 of a win over LSU because it still gives Pitt 9 wins. 9-4 and a bowl win in Narduzzi's first season is the ultimate take away from the season, not a discussion years down the road about LSU's historical perception or reputation vs. Minnesota's.
3) Similarly, a loss to Indy/Minny is not worth anywhere near 5 times more than a loss to LSU because the long-term take away from the season will still be Pitt was 8-5. And again, we lose to LSU and the SOP idiots remind us forever that LSU was having a down year and we still couldn't beat them.
4) I'd go with weighted outcomes more like
--W over LSU, 9-4 and bowl W = +10
--W over Minn, 9-4 and bowl W = +6 (in the long-run, they're actually really close)
--L to LSU, 8-5 and bowl L = -4
--L to Minn, 8-5 and bowl L = -6
4b) But it's still not as simple as +10/-4 > +6/-6. The odds of Pitt beating LSU are probably 20%; we're 5-pt dogs on Sagarin and playing them in the Belk Bowl down south is an obvious homefield advantage for them, so +8. That's 20% chance of winning. The odds of beating Minnesota are about 85%; we're 9-pt favorites on Sagarin and playing them in NYC is a slight homefield advantage to us, so -10. That's about 85% chance of winning.
4c) So the expected outcome of facing LSU with the weighted outcomes on the -10/+10 scale is -1.2 (+10x.2 + -4x.8). The expected outcome of facing Minnesota is +4.2 (+6x.85 + -6x.15). Even if you simply said we have 20% chance of beating LSU and 80% beating Minnesota and calculated with the ridiculously simplistic +10/+2/-2/-10 values, the expected values of the two games are very very close to each other (+0.4 vs. -0.4).
We can debate whether its better to lose to a good SEC school or beat a bad Big Ten school all day, there is no debating that its better for our program to PLAY the SEC school as opposed to the pathetic B10 program.
Beating IU or a 5-7 team is like beating Bowling Green. They are like a good MAC program. Everyone feels good about a bowl win but it doesn't do anything for the program. And my gosh, could you imagine us losing (which can easily happen). It would be a catastrophic loss.
Everybody expects us to lose to SEC, if we do, no biggie unless its an embarrassing blowout. A win, however, would elevate this program significantly.
Simply put, there is more opportunity in playing the SEC. Barnes has to avoid Indiana/Min at all cost........heck, even if that means meeting the SEC in Shreveport.
Beating IU or a 5-7 team is like beating Bowling Green. They are like a good MAC program. Everyone feels good about a bowl win but it doesn't do anything for the program. And my gosh, could you imagine us losing (which can easily happen). It would be a catastrophic loss.
Everybody expects us to lose to SEC, if we do, no biggie unless its an embarrassing blowout. A win, however, would elevate this program significantly.
Simply put, there is more opportunity in playing the SEC. Barnes has to avoid Indiana/Min at all cost........heck, even if that means meeting the SEC in Shreveport.
This program has won 9 games THREE TIMES IN THE LAST FOUR DECADES ...
The game that provides the best opportunity to get to 9 wins is the best opportunity, SEC or not.
Of course we want to win whatever game we end up in, but there's nothing magical about 9 wins vs 8.
For one, if the 9th win is against a 5-7 Big Ten alsoran, it won't generate any more buzz going into next season than if we didn't play at all.
The opportunity that the 9th win comes against a high profile SEC provides is just so much worth the potential loss.
You're really overstating the perceptual differences between 8-5 and 9-4.
9-4 with win over LSU = overwhelmingly successful season
9-4 with win over 5-7 B1G team = successful season
8-5 with loss to LSU = successful season
8-5 with loss to 5-7 B1G team = same old Pitt
This program has won 9 games three times in the last three decades, they have lost to better teams more times than we can count.
It isn't an either or, if they play LSU so be it, and in the great likelyhood they lose that matchup, they will spin it positively.
But, 9 wins and a bowl win regardless of who the last win was against is better than 8 wins with an attboy loss an on bowl win to a LOT more people than not.
The issue here is not the willingness to play LSU that is all fine and well.
The issue is discounting 9 wins with a bowl win ...
Sorry, that means a lot more than 8 wins and a loss to LSU.
What's a more "catastrophic" bowl loss?
a) losing to a B10 team to finish 8-5
b) losing to a 7-5 non-P5 school in epic meltdown fashion to finish 6-7
Option b. is worse and happened one year ago; Pitt hardly went into Majors2-level catastrophe mode.
All these bring-on-LSU people are thinking about the value of who we face in a bowl game in terms of the buzz the opponent creates for 2-3 weeks before the game and how the Pitt fans micromanage it for about 1 month after. Beyond that very short time period, having as many W's as possible and a bowl victory are the most important takeaways from a transitional season like this one, especially in recruiting. Remember: 1) SOP fans will spin a win or loss to LSU as"no big deal" because they're down. 2) We already have 2 coulda-shoulda-won losses to a pair of top-10 teams this year. 3) We remember '11 through '14 as spinning our wheels years, not for the 2012 loss to #1 ND during which we clearly outplayed them -- how we talk about those years and the recruiting classes that immediately followed prove it.
You're wrong about the part in bold. If our coach hadn't already left, he might well have been fired after that game. It was a catastrophe.
There is reality and there is speculation.
Sorry, but your speculation does not trump the stated actual reality, and this highlights the points made.
As horrific as the game was, today, if you brought it up in conversation to anyone other than a dire hard panthers fan, it is loss.
Nothing more, nothing less.
The record books don't have a THERMONUCLEAR DISASTER, it has an L.
And, a L to LSU would be just that, too.
An L, not REALLY, REALLY, REALLY QUALITY LOSS! Program greatly improved for just having the honor and privilege of losing to LSU!
doesn't Pitt always beat Georgia in bowl games? what is the big deal about beating an average team with a name...
It's in the record books as literally the biggest come from behind victory in the 4th quarter in BOWL GAME HISTORY.
When people look up.... "What was the greatest comeback in bowl history?"..... the answer will be "Houston against Pittsburgh, Armed Forces Bowl, 2014"
The greatest collapse in the history of bowls. Not just our bowls.... ALL bowls.
And if Chryst wasn't already leaving, it probably would've cost him his job.
Do people not realize Ind/Min have a good chance of beating us?
We're probably a 6 point favorite in the Pinstripe and 6 pt underdog against the SEC. I cant believe our fans would rather us take the slightly easier path to victory over a no-name program than the opportunity to beat a blue blood beatable SEC team.
Exactly.
If we wanted the mythical, magical 9th win.... we could just play an easier OOC to guarantee it. That's the gutless approach.
Playing Indiana/Minnesota is high risk and low reward. Playing LSU/Georgia is low risk and high reward.
That's the bottom line.
First, for the third time, based on this season, nards has beaten every team he can or should like indiana or whoever and lost to teams with a clear talent edge, like lsu.
My issue isnt playing lsu, my issue is discounting beating indiana or whoever all else based on this fantasy that an atta boy loss to lsu is better than a 9th win and bowl win.
Nobody said an "attaboy loss" is better than a 9th win. That's a strawman you made up. We said that it isn't a soul-crushing program-killer that a loss to Indiana/Minnesota would be.
We said, for the 100th time, there are four possible outcomes..... ranked in this order:
1. Beat LSU
2. Beat Indiana/Minn.
3. Lose to LSU
4. Lose to Indiana/Minn.
Those are the possible outcomes in this debate, ordered by their positive impact on the season. Accepting an invitation for a bowl against LSU, therefore, results in either our 1st or 3rd-best outcomes. Accepting an invitation for a bowl against Indiana/Minn. results in either our 2nd or 4th best outcomes.
But it goes beyond that.... the 2nd outcome is only slightly better than the 3rd..... while the 3rd outcome is significantly better than the 4th.... and the 1st is significantly better than the 2nd.
The 4th outcome must be avoided at ALL costs. Any of the first 3 outcomes doesn't diminish this first season of the Narduzzi era. The upward trajectory would remain. The 4th outcome washes away all the progress of this season, both on the field and in the "court of public opinion"..... and should be avoided at all costs.
Except no one will give a damn about that game or win. No one. Getting #9? Great. However, the chance (which is pretty decent in a bowl scenario) of losing to Minnesota or Indiana is enough to greatly outweigh any advantage. No doubt you rather have the 9th win. No doubt at all. Would I rather risk losing to Indiana or Minnesota? Probably not.
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