Final 2016 Bubble Viewing Guide - and Bracket Prediction

[UPitt '89]

Well, Pitt's teamrankings percentage stayed pretty steady at 52%, but I still think that's too low. I feel pretty strongly that Pitt is solidly in. Anyway, let's look at yesterday's action.

Saturday's Losers

Michigan

The Wolverines will have a very nervous Sunday, sitting at RPI of 58 and chances at 41%. The BVG (that's us, the Bubble Viewing Guide) thinks they are in and playing in Dayton.

Georgia

The dream ended. They would've been in with an upset win over Kentucky.

Temple

Another team that should be more nervous today than the percentages indicate after yesterday's loss. But the BVG says they have squeaked in, even though their 93% TR chances say they're safely in.

San Diego State

The BVG thinks they are in and playing in Dayton. But they really didn't want to put this in the committee's hands. Loss to Fresno was a bad one.

Saturday's Winners

VCU

A resounding win over Davidson. They're in.

UConn

A 75-foot shot that would've put them out two days if it missed.... and now they're a lock and a team nobody wants to play.

Sunday's Bubble-related Games

Louisiana Monroe
vs Arkansas-Little Rock (RPI 45: Chances: 76% (auto: 66%, at-large: 10%))
Noon, ESPN2
- Arkansas Little Rock may have done enough to make the dance with a loss today. Probably not, but let's not test the possibility. We want A-LR to win. Go Trojans!

Memphis (RPI: 136 Chances: 30%)
vs Connecticut
2:15, ESPN
- Every bubble team in the country is rooting for Connecticut today. Go Huskies!


The BVG Projected Tourney field

1 seeds: Kansas, UNC, Oregon, Michigan State
2 seeds: Villanova, Virginia, Xavier, WVU
3 seeds: Oklahoma, Miami, Kentucky, Indiana
4 seeds: Utah, Purdue, Texas A&M, Seton Hall
5 seeds: Duke, California, Maryland, Arizona
6 seeds: Wisconsin, Iowa, Dayton, Iowa State
7 seeds: Texas, Notre Dame, Colorado, Baylor
8 seeds: St. Joseph's, Providence, USC, Connecticut
9 seeds: VCU, Oregon State, Texas Tech, Cincinnati
10 seeds: Pitt, Gonzaga, Butler, St. Bonaventure
11 seeds: Temple, Arkansas-LR, (Michigan vs South Carolina), (St. Mary's vs Wichita St.)
12 seeds: S. Dakota State, UNC-Wilmington, N Iowa, Hawaii
13 seeds: Yale, Chattanooga, Stony Brook, Fresno State
14 seeds: Green Bay, SF Austin, Iona, Buffalo
15 seeds: Middle Tenn, Austin Peay, Weber State, UNC-Asheville
16 seeds: CS-Bakersfield, Hampton, (Holy Cross vs Fla Gulf Coast), (Farl-Dickinson vs Southern)

Out: Syracuse, San Diego State, Vanderbilt, Tulsa, Akron, Valparaiso

***Updated to reflect SJU's blowout winner VCU.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Well, Pitt's teamrankings percentage stayed pretty steady at 52%, but I still think that's too low. I feel pretty strongly that Pitt is solidly in. Anyway, let's look at yesterday's action.

Saturday's Losers

Michigan

The Wolverines will have a very nervous Sunday, sitting at RPI of 58 and chances at 41%. The BVG (that's us, the Bubble Viewing Guide) thinks they are in and playing in Dayton.

Georgia

The dream ended. They would've been in with an upset win over Kentucky.

Temple

Another team that should be more nervous today than the percentages indicate after yesterday's loss. But the BVG says they have squeaked in, even though their 93% TR chances say they're safely in.

San Diego State

The BVG thinks they are in and playing in Dayton. But they really didn't want to put this in the committee's hands. Loss to Fresno was a bad one.

Saturday's Winners

VCU

A resounding win over Davidson. They're in.

UConn

A 75-foot shot that would've put them out two days if it missed.... and now they're a lock and a team nobody wants to play.

Sunday's Bubble-related Games

Louisiana Monroe
vs Arkansas-Little Rock (RPI 45: Chances: 76% (auto: 66%, at-large: 10%))
Noon, ESPN2
- Arkansas Little Rock may have done enough to make the dance with a loss today. Probably not, but let's not test the possibility. We want A-LR to win. Go Trojans!

Memphis (RPI: 136 Chances: 30%)
vs Connecticut
2:15, ESPN
- Every bubble team in the country is rooting for Connecticut today. Go Huskies!


The BVG Projected Tourney field

1 seeds: Kansas, UNC, Oregon, Michigan State
2 seeds: Villanova, Virginia, Xavier, WVU
3 seeds: Oklahoma, Miami, Kentucky, Indiana
4 seeds: Utah, Purdue, Texas A&M, Seton Hall
5 seeds: Duke, California, Maryland, Arizona
6 seeds: Wisconsin, Iowa, Dayton, Iowa State
7 seeds: Texas, Notre Dame, VCU, Baylor
8 seeds: Colorado, Providence, USC, Connecticut
9 seeds: St. Joseph's, Oregon State, Texas Tech, Cincinnati
10 seeds: Pitt, Gonzaga, Butler, (St. Mary's vs Wichita State)
11 seeds: Temple, St. Bonaventure, Arkansas-LR, (Michigan vs South Carolina)
12 seeds: S. Dakota State, UNC-Wilmington, N Iowa, Hawaii
13 seeds: Yale, Chattanooga, Stony Brook, Fresno State
14 seeds: Green Bay, SF Austin, Iona, Buffalo
15 seeds: Middle Tenn, Austin Peay, Weber State, UNC-Asheville
16 seeds: CS-Bakersfield, Hampton, (Holy Cross vs Fla Gulf Coast), (Farl-Dickinson vs Southern)

Out: Syracuse, San Diego State, Vanderbilt, Tulsa, Akron, Valparaiso

* If Memphis beat UConn...
- Memphis goes in as a 12-seed
- Hawaii moves up to an 11
- Temple replaces S Carolina in the 11-seed play-in game
- South Carolina is out.

* If Ark-LR loses to LA-Monroe...
- Ark-LR is out
- LA-Monroe goes in as 14-seed
- Buffalo moves up to 13-seed
- Fresno moves up to 12-seed
- Hawaii moves up to 11-seed

If BOTH Memphis and LA-Monroe win:
- South Carolina is out
- Ark-LR is out
- Temple replaces S. Carolina in 11-seed play-in game
- Hawaii moves up to 11 seed
- Memphis is 12-seed

If Purdue beats Michigan State:
- Virginia and Michigan State swap places - Virginia to 1-seed, MSU to 2-seed
- Purdue goes to 3-seed, Miami falls to 4-seed.

If Texas A&M beats Kentucky
- They swap places (A&M to 3-seed, Kentucky to 4-seed)

Just a question, how is Temple (and SBU), as an at-large, seeded below the play in game? I expect the play in games to both be for 11 seeds, and they should be for the final four at large teams in the field. If you want to have Temple ahead of those teams, that's fine, but they need to be a 10 seed. The 11 line should be one at large, one mid major, and then the 4 teams in Dayton.

 

[UPitt '89]

Just a question, how is Temple, as an at-large, seeded below the play in game? I expect the play in games to both be for 11 seeds, and they should be for the final four at large teams in the field. If you want to have Temple ahead of those teams, that's fine, but they need to be a 10 seed. The 11 line should be one at large, one mid major, and then the 4 teams in Dayton.

They don't always do it that way. A lot of times they make the playin games for a 10-seed and an 11-seed... or even a 11-seed and a 12-seed.

They aren't necessarily both for 11-seeds.

 

[whirlybird optio]

They don't always do it that way. A lot of times they make the playin games for a 10-seed and an 11-seed... or even a 11-seed and a 12-seed.

They aren't necessarily both for 11-seeds.

Right, but that's usually because the mid major and lower seeds break in a way which forces them to do it that way. I just don't know that they've ever seeded at-large teams a full seed line below a play in game. I might be wrong. Would seem dumb though.

 

[UPitt '89]

Right, but that's usually because the mid major and lower seeds break in a way which forces them to do it that way. I just don't know that they've ever seeded at-large teams a full seed line below a play in game. I might be wrong. Would seem dumb though.

Good point. Fixed.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Another team that should be more nervous today than the percentages indicate after yesterday's loss. But the BVG says they have squeaked in, even though their 93% TR chances say they're safely in.

See, this is another (or a continuing) example of why their odds are screwed up. Yesterday Temple was at 89.9% according to them. Everyone agrees that a large part of that was the built in percentage of them winning the conference and getting the autobid. Then they lost yesterday, so the autobid is off the table. And TR now says that their chance to get in has gone up 3.1%.

While I agree that it isn't some linear progression, because more teams than just Temple played, there is no way that with Temple losing yesterday and the other results that happened yesterday that Temple's chance to make the field went up. Literally, no way. If Temple's chances before yesterday was actually 89.9% then today it is obviously something significantly less than that, not several percent greater than that.

Based on this morning's numbers that have Temple with an RPI of 62, if they get in there will only be four teams since they last changed the RPI formula (2005) to have gotten an at large bid with a lower RPI (USC - 67, Marquette - 64, NC State - 63, Stanford - 63). The most recent of those was Marquette in 2011. Temple might get in, but right now their chances are way, way less than 93%. Half that would be much closer to the truth.

 

[Blair_45]

Lunardi's latest update has Pitt as a 10 in Brooklyn playing VCU with the winner getting Villanova. I'll take those matchups.

 

[anon_d97v9o3a8b6xr]

I have become a real fan of VCU just from this thread. Although I really don't like them for basketball. But I've embraced cheerleading as a sport.

 

[noelr]

I dont want to play vcu bc of the pressure they put on the ball...but if that cheerleaders shows up...

 

[PittMan 72]

I have become a real fan of VCU just from this thread. Although I really don't like them for basketball. But I've embraced cheerleading as a sport.

Or in this case, basketballS

 

[CCHS82]

Thanks '89 for a fantastic job on the bubbles! Totally enjoyed them!

 

[PittMan 72]

Thanks '89 for a fantastic job on the bubbles! Totally enjoyed them!

Second that. Tremendous stuff, '89!

 

[NTOP]

I have become a real fan of VCU just from this thread. Although I really don't like them for basketball. But I've embraced cheerleading as a sport.

Yessir...that is one nicely filled costume.

 

[noelr]

Vcu v oregon state for upitt89 bubbles watch cheerleader championship

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

SMF vs UPitt 89 vs Whirly

Who will be the bracketology champ?

We'll use same scoring criteria as Bracket Matrix

 

[whirlybird optio]

SMF vs UPitt 89 vs Whirly

Who will be the bracketology champ?

We'll use same scoring criteria as Bracket Matrix

I posted an update under my bracket. My final pick is Wisconsin vs Pitt, winner to face Oregon.

 

[UPitt '89]

How I did:

- I got 65/68 correct in the field. I had St. Bonaventure, South Carolina, and St. Mary's in.... and I had Syracuse, Tulsa, and Vanderbilt out.

- I got 26 of the seeds exactly correct.

- I got 60 of the teams within one seed.


I don't know how that compares to Lunardi.... but I bet it ain't much different. And I'm not getting paid for this.

 

[whirlybird optio]

How I did:

- I got 65/68 correct in the field. I had St. Bonaventure, South Carolina, and St. Mary's in.... and I had Syracuse, Tulsa, and Vanderbilt out.

- I got 26 of the seeds exactly correct.

- I got 60 of the teams within one seed.


I don't know how that compares to Lunardi.... but I bet it ain't much different. And I'm not getting paid for this.

I got 66 of 68, I had SDSU and St Bonnie's. Didn't have Tulsa/Vandy.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

How I did:

- I got 65/68 correct in the field. I had St. Bonaventure, South Carolina, and St. Mary's in.... and I had Syracuse, Tulsa, and Vanderbilt out.

- I got 26 of the seeds exactly correct.

- I got 60 of the teams within one seed.


I don't know how that compares to Lunardi.... but I bet it ain't much different. And I'm not getting paid for this.

Based on quick calculations, Lunardi got 65/68 teams, 34 seeded exactly, 59 w/in 1 seed.