Friday Morning Bubbles.... March 4, 2016

[UPitt '89]

Last night was a decent day for our Pitt Panthers. Their chances bumped up to 57.6% from 54.1%.

Thursday's Losers

UConn

The Huskies got absolutely hammered by SMU, and all of a sudden their resume doesn't look all that great. They're 20-10 overall and 10-7 in the weak AAC. Their chances fell from 76.5% to 66.1%.

Arkansas-Little Rock
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

The Trojans needed to win out through to their league final in order to have an at-large chance. Losing last night to Appalachian State (who was just 7-22 coming into the game) was an absolute killer to their at-large chances. They fell from 65.4% to 50.8%.... but only 13.3% of that is an at-large bid.

Cincinnati

The Bearcats lost at Houston, and their profile is starting to look a lot like UConn's. Chances fell from 87.6% to 76.8%.

Thursday's Winners

Temple

The Owls got a much-needed home win against Memphis. Healthy jump from 67.1% to 79.4%.

Houston

The Cougars are playing well at the right time. They are climbing their way back onto the bubble. They are up to 32.8% from 17.1% after their win against Cincinnati.

Friday Night's Action

Kent State
at Akron (RPI: 38 Chances: 49.6%)
7:00, ESPN2
- The Zips can improve their resume with a home win against a solid team. Go Golden Flashes!

Rider
at Monmouth (RPI: 52 Chances: 39.2%)
7:00, ESPN3
- The Hawks still have an outside shot at an at-large bid if they keep winning. Go Broncs!

 

[whirlybird optio]

I think you had better include South Carolina on your losers chart, the biggest losers of the night. On teamrankings, they are down to a 23% chance, RPI yesterday went from like 41 to 59.

SEC now looking like possibly a 3 bid league, which frees up bids elsewhere, this was a 6 bid league recently.

Also, I think the AAC percentages are still inflated. I think if you are Pitt, you are rooting for either Cincy or Temple to win that league, and for Uconn and Tulsa to lose early.

 

[iMissTheOldDays]

These bubbles are awesome to read every morning and night .. Better than any content on ESPN .. Much appreciated

 

[UPitt '89]

I think you had better include South Carolina on your losers chart, the biggest losers of the night. On teamrankings, they are down to a 23% chance, RPI yesterday went from like 41 to 59.

SEC now looking like possibly a 3 bid league, which frees up bids elsewhere, this was a 6 bid league recently.

Also, I think the AAC percentages are still inflated. I think if you are Pitt, you are rooting for either Cincy or Temple to win that league, and for Uconn and Tulsa to lose early.

I think you are correct. South Carolina was a lock a few weeks ago, but they are doing badly lately. I'll make an addendum

 

[UPitt '89]

Addendum:

ANOTHER LOSER

South Carolina

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6X7zG+uQpew8Dy58xa2rJRf6I9gslwtViEzZja+ptYdbedjbXQzrHsy2hhvw3Y0riouapWOV8ozPZc1RgAWy5fQ24TmNRMLlqZS+bIhpZr6NmXOlrW4F9ST7osTxOGlaowFFSxUsLUwTZmNgLqOJ4anWcatHHydy2i+ZhfiNJstj6r4g6fIAD+ZosFTcKgqe+qIrc+8EUNr53m02fjVo5s3O1vr/MyrkkbqqQiZL25u3nxHmZbWoqr2lUhEHAMQNOpvwkZ2nvKe1FKhT7auT3Uv3afMvUPC4BGnK41Fxfw7uqT+I2piC7ckDstJbgggZbFibngBfS95ZXkG8q754VLgvwBOisdADwNrHgeHScR9qePpYjHGtRJIZFBuLd5Rb7WnS8Xvfg8ID+GwgPiqJTB49e915Tle/W9LbQqqxpimKYIAvc96xJOg6SzE7eiORUtkYiImkoEREATc7qbbbB4hao1ThUX8yHjp1HH5TTiX8LRzMBIyqtnY3eiX4vbT1MU+JoVGw+ZrqEYqbDQFgNCTxN+sm2wvaDUt2eOVa1MixqIvfH6kGjjysfAyF7P2euXUSurgyhunzHKYnNXSPQji1s6JWwb4W2N2Wwq4dtalAG6kHmh5WPLiLk6+6d/s3b1KvSXEUjdTfQ8VPNWHIj+85fu3vK2Dq3uTRcjtEPAf7wOTD6j5SSVaK0sUatB/wChiAgqqNVFVixDDkAQD8zF6KpRp0X9n4GqMTXxFUgmq4IAPuqAFUegH1khp1m5C0xjs8cVa0ycPgG/NIbYL6Jf3jf7T12pzIo4EW1v6zLTCJ0Ekosi2agVF5TE25saljKDUao7p90jirDgw8Zv6uzKZ5WmMMC6e4cw6H9jJpNELPm7bux6mErNRqjUcDyZeTCYitPobbmyaOIt+Kok5b2NgbX42Ya8hLGE3NwA1Wgh/UM33liynO1HAgZNN2NxsXWofi6Tii4YdiHupYD3nuASvgba2PnOtYfd7CUzdKFNT4Ko+0vV6JOgOVfDnOSmzsUlwaXB0GChXfO4ADNa2ZgO81uVzMHeFH7Mino5BynobaH1tJPTwwUcJrts0hksOZmd6LERnZmMpbPpdmlqmLdQarHkT+Y8bXJIF9dTzvMOtWeqxeqxdvHl5DgBKN/aIpV6FQC3aUiGP6SMt/8AsZZwdcECRyNs04FFf0tbQw91M55tShlc+M6fi0usgG8tDKw85Z00t0Q6uOrNCZ5KjKZ6B5wiIgFQm43fpAtczTiSPdxJVldRLcKuSJZhkFoxVIW0ldK1pRiWsJ5vk9N6RFd4K2RdOJNhOv7s7NGIwtBXWynDoXHA5ioynz4t8xONY6rTbFURVP8ATDp2n6C4zfQGfRAdLdph3BtrlFsrLbTKeHC1prcaijBKVyZGtmY1qVZ8JVN2p+6x+NPhPnwvJFSxA6yGbfr0WqCu1VaTKzd5iFtoBlN/lpNVjvaNhqQshasw07oyr/2b9gZWot8I62lydRR763l5aqj4pwDGe0rEt/pqied2P7D6TUYnfPHPxxDAdFCr9QLy5YpkHOJ9M/ik6zGrbYoJ71RF/Uyj7mfL9fbWJf38RVa/I1HI9LzAk1if2Qc0fT1bfTZ40bF0P/sVvsTNPi9/dlIdMQL/AOxKh+y2nzzPbyXpLyc7zu7+03Z44VKjeVNv/wBWmJV9rGBHBMQ3kiD7vOJzyPRiO9nZH9ruGvpQrfPs/tmmLU9qeHYgmjW0J/J/M5LEejEepInG+2+SYzsxSVgEa5LAA2AtbQnmSfSZWwcVmE5+JI91K5zZZVmxJQ14L+nyPv35J8RddZCt7Kel/GTqlTOWQ/e6n3TMmB+829TuDIWwlErMoM9RHks8iInThWsk+7q6CRhZNN2MP3QZnzuomjp1cjfUl0mv2nVsDN9ToC2pkX3y7qXB4m3rMWPcqNuXUbIbi6uZi3U/SZ+xt5cVhf8AQqsulhrcD/idOd+HGappSZ6dKqPLsv47G1KztUqsXdjck85jxEkcEREAREQBERAEREAREQCoTbbtn+sBe01Am12Dhyz5rXtK8nxZZi+SOo0qy5ffHqJG946edTYjh1mVhmqFe6PRT9wJrceCQcw08tRfy5TzscakejkncaIQZQZmY3CmmfDkZhmemnZ5jVHkREkRLiybbtVf6Y15SFLJfspclMdf5mbPtGnByTHDkW4zQb2YLtaZy3zDUdDblM6jXNp5ir5bzDG4ys3SSlGmcvaUSQ7ybNsq1191738wbX+kj09SElJWjy5wcXTEREmQEREAREQBERAEREAREQD2THYlFXwpNE/1UBuOvMj+JDZn7H2k1B86+RleWDlHRbimovZNdkY92S665fP/AME22ICVlD2sShzeYNv5kY3b2uKaMxtdmJtyBPEAdJnYnaGRM7aFiNP1ED7azBOD7tG6El22WtqbORv6Y1YL/wCechGIolGKtxE6DtIhTSqDiWH10P3kR3qdTiGyiwsBNHTyd0U9TBJWaeIiazEXqPEeY+8mWHW6g8r2kNoNZh5j7yfUGyqoOocX8iJl6h1Rq6dXZtMHhu7fjpeZnZqUPpaah8WaZA5Hh0ImOdoZHFz3W8eBmNxbNvekKmDz0K2HPFLlfJtR6Gc7YWNjyk82/tIUytUeIt+YEcPsflIJUa5J6kn1mzpk6b+zH1TVpLwUxETUZBERAEREAREQBERAEREAREQCunUINweEza20Hqlc5FlPLhNfE44pnVJo2mL2u7MCD7vDpNbUqFiSeJlMTkYpcHZTcuRERJESpWtrJxWrn8NRfmGH10P3iJnzr4/009O/l/CjbeJL0Q3AjUEekieIxztoTwMRGBKjmduyzWxDPbMxNuF5aiJoM4iIgCIiAIiIAiIgCIiAIiIAiIgCIiAIiIAiIgH/2Q==
The Gamecocks have now lost 4 of 6, and their SEC record has fallen to 10-7. Their chances have fallen from 71.8% to 23.2% in just one week. The Bubble Guide apologizes for not noticing them earlier... it is our habit to look away whenever there are Cocks on TV.

 

[BucosRule]

UPITT89 - Thanks for all of your hard work with the bubble watch. Which conference tournaments do we need to keep an eye on that may have potential bid stealers?

 

[Pantherman43]

I think you are correct. South Carolina was a lock a few weeks ago, but they are doing badly lately. I'll make an addendum

Lunardi has them below us now as well. They are a 10 in his bracket update while our Panthers are #9 seed against St Joe's.

 

[Piranha]

If UConn and Cincy get bounced early in their conference tournament, then they are both not getting in and both should be left out.

 

[UPitt '89]

You don't want Monmouth, St Marys, Ark-LR, Akron to lose in their conf final, because they could be bid stealers.

 

[Piranha]

Ark- LR, Akron, and UConn should not be at large teams.

 

[BFo8]

Morehead St blew a golden opportunity tonight. Were a sizable favorite against UT Martin in the semis for the right to face big dog Austin Peay in the finals.

For anyone who watched it the A Peay/Belmont game was certainly an instant classic.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Ark- LR, Akron, and UConn should not be at large teams.

IMO, there's no chance that if they lose early their entire "Conference win %" transfers to their at-large chances.

A lot of these schools who have high percentages because they are favored to win a watered down Conference will have really tiny chances of getting an at-large spot should they lose in the Conference Tourney.