Going forward, does Pitt have to...

[Pitt_Boss]

...win the ACC tournament to get in the NCAA tourney?

This seems to be only path for them to get in, in this era. Being one of the top 4 teams in the ACC is not enough because Pitt is not part of "the club" like Michigan St, Virginia, etc. I know the ACC overall is not what is used to be, but winning the ACC tourney is always going to be tough to do with UNC and Duke in the way. Not really much point to Pitt basketball anymore, they'll likely never make the NCAAs again.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

...win the ACC tournament to get in the NCAA tourney?

This seems to be only path for them to get in, in this era. Being one of the top 4 teams in the ACC is not enough because Pitt is not part of "the club" like Michigan St, Virginia, etc. I know the ACC overall is not what is used to be, but winning the ACC tourney is always going to be tough to do with UNC and Duke in the way. Not really much point to Pitt basketball anymore, they'll likely never make the NCAAs again.

No. They need to play a great non-con. Win a few of them. Then go 12-8, maybe even 11-9 in the ACC depending on how the non-con went and who you beat. UVa had to go 13-7 because their ACC schedule was weak and they didnt win any big games in conference

 

[Pitt_Boss]

If they play a great non-con, their non-con SOS will go up but their record will go down. If they replaced their 4 worst non-con opponents this year, with 4 non-con NCAA tourney teams, their non-con SOS may go up to Top 60(maybe not, but for this argument let's even given them #39 non-con SOS). But they go 1-3 in those games and their record ends up 19-14. Pitt is not getting in with a 19-14 record. No chance.

The current selection setup leaves very little viable paths for Pitt going forward. They may win the ACC tourney once every 20 years, fine that will do it. The other years they will need to have a top 35 non-con SoS, a top 35 NET, etc and go like 28-5. That's really the only two ways.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

If they play a great non-con, their non-con SOS will go up but their record will go down. If they replaced their 4 worst non-con opponents this year, with 4 non-con NCAA tourney teams, their non-con SOS may go up to Top 60(maybe not, but for this argument let's even given them #39 non-con SOS). But they go 1-3 in those games and their record ends up 19-14. Pitt is not getting in with a 19-14 record. No chance.

The current selection setup leaves very little viable paths for Pitt going forward. They may win the ACC tourney once every 20 years, fine that will do it. The other years they will need to have a top 35 non-con SoS, a top 35 NET, etc and go like 28-5. That's really the only two ways.

That's just dumb.

If Pitt had played a really hard non-conference schedule and finished fourth in the ACC but had lost two more games, they'd be in the tournament for sure. How many examples to you need that you don't have to have a great record if you have a really tough schedule before it becomes obvious that it's possible?

If Pitt ever plays the 35th toughest non-conference schedule and they finish fourth in the ACC and lose in the ACC semifinals, they won't have to go 28-5 to get an at large bid. In fact they would have to go anything even close to that to get a bid. Hell, if we had the 35th toughest non-conference schedule THIS season, and everything else had been exactly the same, we would have been in with our current 22-11 record. And even if we were a couple games worse than that.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If they play a great non-con, their non-con SOS will go up but their record will go down. If they replaced their 4 worst non-con opponents this year, with 4 non-con NCAA tourney teams, their non-con SOS may go up to Top 60(maybe not, but for this argument let's even given them #39 non-con SOS). But they go 1-3 in those games and their record ends up 19-14. Pitt is not getting in with a 19-14 record. No chance.

The current selection setup leaves very little viable paths for Pitt going forward. They may win the ACC tourney once every 20 years, fine that will do it. The other years they will need to have a top 35 non-con SoS, a top 35 NET, etc and go like 28-5. That's really the only two ways.

We went 1-4 in 2023 (NW, Mich, WVU, VCU, Vandy) and got in.

 

[Pitt_Boss]

We went 1-4 in 2023 (NW, Mich, WVU, VCU, Vandy) and got in.

That was before CBS' new TV deal for Big Ten basketball games. CBS, who pays billions to broadcast the the NCAA tournament, now has TV contracts with the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and others....but not the ACC.

In this era, they will be looking to take as few ACC teams as possible. The blue bloods like Duke and UNC will always get more than fair consideration as well as a "new blood" like UVA, but most of the rest of the ACC, including Pitt, has little chance of getting an at-large selection unless they are essentially a Top 25 ranked team.

This was just proven - Pitt was a Top 4 ACC team with great metrics in like 9 out of 10 categories. No bid. That is the future for Pitt in the "CBS Invitational".

 

[PittPanther44]

That was before CBS' new TV deal for Big Ten basketball games. CBS, who pays billions to broadcast the the NCAA tournament, now has TV contracts with the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and others....but not the ACC.

In this era, they will be looking to take as few ACC teams as possible. The blue bloods like Duke and UNC will always get more than fair consideration as well as a "new blood" like UVA, but most of the rest of the ACC, including Pitt, has little chance of getting an at-large selection unless they are essentially a Top 25 ranked team.

This was just proven - Pitt was a Top 4 ACC team with great metrics in like 9 out of 10 categories. No bid. That is the future for Pitt in the "CBS Invitational".

That just isn’t true. The committee isn’t plugged into that. They just don’t watch enough ball and double counted our SOS which is already factored into the NET.

 

[TD_6082]

No. They need to play a great non-con. Win a few of them. Then go 12-8, maybe even 11-9 in the ACC depending on how the non-con went and who you beat. UVa had to go 13-7 because their ACC schedule was weak and they didnt win any big games in conference

In 2021-22, Virginia went 12-8 in the ACC and won at Duke. That was a Duke team that won 30+ games and won the ACC. That UVA team ended up in the NIT.

UVA is certainly not in any club of blue bloods. Nationally, nobody really gives a shit about Virginia basketball.

 

[Pitt_Boss]

That just isn’t true. The committee isn’t plugged into that. They just don’t watch enough ball and double counted our SOS which is already factored into the NET.

Hahaha - you think CBS pays billions of dollars for the NCAA tournament and has no influence over who gets the at-large bids???

 

[PittPanther44]

Hahaha - you think CBS pays billions of dollars for the NCAA tournament and has no influence over who gets the at-large bids???

I do think that. I think the talking heads have more influence because it helps to fill out what the committee doesn’t see for their own eyes.

 

[Pitt_Boss]

In 2021-22, Virginia went 12-8 in the ACC and won at Duke. That was a Duke team that won 30+ games and won the ACC. That UVA team ended up in the NIT.

UVA is certainly not in any club of blue bloods. Nationally, nobody really gives a shit about Virginia basketball.

I didn't say UVA was a blue bood, i said they were a 'new blood' which is a school that temporary appeal, like FAU because they were in the Final Four. That helped them get selected this year...it won't last much longer for FAU.

But for UVA, they have been highly ranked for most of the last 10 years and a recent National Title. After the true blue bloods, they are highly relevant to the casual TV viewer.

But anyway, what happened in any season before this one, doesn't matter. This was the year CBS became heavily invested in all of the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12. They will never allow the ACC to get 7-8 bids again. For a school like Pitt, that means they have to win the league to get in. Finishing even as one of the 4 best ACC teams won't do it. The proof is literally right in front of you - believe them.

Do you think a team with a 12-8 Big Ten record will ever be left out of the tournament? They just put in 10-10 Michigan St.

How about an SEC team with a 12-8 record, think they will be left out? They just put in 8-10 Miss State and 9-9 TAMU.

There is no way a team from the Big Ten or SEC will go 22-11/12-8 and finish top 4 in either conference and be left out of the CBS NCAA tourney. That just happened to Pitt and the ACC.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

No. They need to play a great non-con. Win a few of them. Then go 12-8, maybe even 11-9 in the ACC depending on how the non-con went and who you beat. UVa had to go 13-7 because their ACC schedule was weak and they didnt win any big games in conference

They kept saying last night (and Kevin Keatts reiterated) that the Big 12 beat up on cupcakes and then became a bunch of Q1 teams facing each other once their conference play started.

But I didn't hear any complaints about their non-cons, so is that really what they did? Did they just schedule a few high-end games to offset the overall OOC SOS or something?

Nontheless, step one for the ACC is to go to 17 conference games (play each team once). Replace 3 P6 conference games with one P6 non-conference game and somehow it'll be perceived better, I guess, because they're just making shit up anyway.

 

[TD_6082]

I didn't say UVA was a blue bood, i said they were a 'new blood' which is a school that temporary appeal, like FAU because they were in the Final Four. That helped them get selected this year...it won't last much longer for FAU.

But for UVA, they have been highly ranked for most of the last 10 years and a recent National Title. After the true blue bloods, they are highly relevant to the casual TV viewer.

But anyway, what happened in any season before this one, doesn't matter. This was the year CBS became heavily invested in all of the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12. They will never allow the ACC to get 7-8 bids again. For a school like Pitt, that means they have to win the league to get in. Finishing even as one of the 4 best ACC teams won't do it. The proof is literally right in front of you - believe them.

Do you think a team with a 12-8 Big Ten record will ever be left out of the tournament? They just put in 10-10 Michigan St.

How about an SEC team with a 12-8 record, think they will be left out? They just put in 8-10 Miss State and 9-9 TAMU.

There is no way a team from the Big Ten or SEC will go 22-11/12-8 and finish top 4 in either conference and be left out of the CBS NCAA tourney. That just happened to Pitt and the ACC.

I don't know about Virginia. Unless you are an absolute hoops junkie, I would think the casual TV viewer would avoid Virginia basketball like the plague. Most people despise their style of play.

Clemson got a bid and they didn't have a great conference record.

It's hard to say what happens going forward. But the SEC & Big 10 added some good programs & the ACC further diluted theirs.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

That was before CBS' new TV deal for Big Ten basketball games. CBS, who pays billions to broadcast the the NCAA tournament, now has TV contracts with the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and others....but not the ACC.

In this era, they will be looking to take as few ACC teams as possible. The blue bloods like Duke and UNC will always get more than fair consideration as well as a "new blood" like UVA, but most of the rest of the ACC, including Pitt, has little chance of getting an at-large selection unless they are essentially a Top 25 ranked team.

This was just proven - Pitt was a Top 4 ACC team with great metrics in like 9 out of 10 categories. No bid. That is the future for Pitt in the "CBS Invitational".

The best way to help the ACC conference is to get a partial TV contract with CBS. There is a 0% chance the MWC gets that many bids if their games were televised on another network.

 

[TD_6082]

Indiana had a NET of 29 and they didn't get in.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

They kept saying last night (and Kevin Keatts reiterated) that the Big 12 beat up on cupcakes and then became a bunch of Q1 teams facing each other once their conference play started.

But I didn't hear any complaints about their non-cons, so is that really what they did? Did they just schedule a few high-end games to offset the overall OOC SOS or something?

Nontheless, step one for the ACC is to go to 17 conference games (play each team once). Replace 3 P6 conference games with one P6 non-conference game and somehow it'll be perceived better, I guess, because they're just making shit up anyway.

Yes, that's what they did. And Capel alluded it to being an actual strategy requested by their commissioner who is a basketball guy. But OU didnt get in because of it and Iowa State didnt get a 1 because of it so Im not sure it worked. There's also a ton of risk in doing that because you cant rely on beating teams by 40 instead of 25.

The MWC gaming strategy is the best. Play very few Q4s. Play winnable road games at WCC and Big West schools and winnable neutral site games. Boise State and Colorado State are really bad. Watch them play on Tuesday and Wednesday. But every game was a Quad 1 and they dont get dinged for a poor non-con because they played "smart" cupcakes

 

[Pitt_Boss]

I know some of you think NC State "stole" Pitt's bid as the 5th ACC team. But the committee's own data does not support that - we were 4th rated of the teams not selected. I genuinely believe they would have went with just 4 ACC teams if NC State lost the ACCG. But either way, 5 is the high limit for the ACC going forward and I bet it will be 4 teams some years too. There will never be 6,7,8 teams from the ACC again.

With such few spots available, Pitt is going to be competing with schools like UNC, Duke, UVA, Louisville (eventually), Syracuse, Notre Dame etc that will all be preferred over Pitt. Winning the ACCT is our best bet going forward or at least will need to finish #2 in the ACC in both regular season and tournament, anything lower is not good enough.