Half the results today have been good for Pitt, half bad

[UPitt '89]

Results that have been good for Pitt:

George Washington lost - They're out
Cincinnati lost - They're behind Pitt
Houston lost - They're out
Ohio State lost - They're out
Florida lost - They're out
Akron won - Keeps MAC at one bid
Tulsa lost - They're behind Pitt
San Diego State won - Keeps the MWC at one bid

Results that have been bad for Pitt:

VCU won - They're in now
Temple won - They might be one win away
UConn won - One more win moves them ahead of Pitt
Michigan won - One more win might move them ahead of Pitt
St. Joe's won - They're likely slightly ahead of Pitt

Current games, and their possible impact:

-St. Bonaventure is losing. A loss moves them behind Pitt *AND* helps out profile because of Davidson win.
-South Carolina is winning. If they lose, they'll be behind Pitt for sure. If they win, they might be ahead of Pitt.


All in all, it hasn't been a bad day. I'm guessing Pitt's teamrankings.com chances will bump up in tomorrow morning's update.

Then tomorrow we root for Michigan, UConn, and Temple to lose.... and San Diego State and Akron to win. Michigan will be a heavy underdog.

 

[Fredact]

Thanks again for your hard work on this.

 

[pitt-girl]

Thanks again for your hard work on this.

And I'd like to add that I appreciate the dead animal pictures are gone.

 

[NTOP]

And I'd like to add that I appreciate the dead animal pictures are gone.

And I'd like to thank him for the pics of very live 'animals".

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Michigan will be a heavy underdog.

It's 7 or 7-1/2 at most places.

 

[UPitt '89]

It's 7 or 7-1/2 at most places.

That's pretty heavy.

Pitt was a 7.5 underdog against UNC.

7.5 on a neutral court is pretty large.

 

[California Panther]

Current games, and their possible impact:

-St. Bonaventure is losing. A loss moves them behind Pitt *AND* helps out profile because of Davidson win.
-South Carolina is winning. If they lose, they'll be behind Pitt for sure. If they win, they might be ahead of Pitt.

Bonnies and Cocks BOTH LOSE!!

 

[MartyInLawrenceville]

St. Bonaventure goes down! Double win for Pitt. A Davidson win helps RPI, and a Bonnies loss hopefully puts them behind Pitt.

 

[UPitt129]

Davidson wins. Bonny loses...on both sides that is great for us.

South Carolina completely gacks away their game against Georgia...turn it over with 2.5 seconds left in a tied game, then fouls and loses.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

-St. Bonaventure is losing. A loss moves them behind Pitt *AND* helps out profile because of Davidson win.
-South Carolina is winning. If they lose, they'll be behind Pitt for sure. If they win, they might be ahead of Pitt.

Davidson wins by 4 in overtime.

Georgia comes back in the last minute to beat South Carolina. Georgia gets a bucket with 26 seconds to tie the game, and then they get a steal with two seconds left and the guy who had the ball stolen from him fouled the guy who stole it. Georgia goes to the line and makes the first and misses the second for a one point win.

 

[whirlybird optio]

South Carolina just fell below Pitt.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Akron has a .0000001% chance of an at large.

SDSU cannot pass Pitt.

 

[DT_PITT]

And I'd like to add that I appreciate the dead animal pictures are gone.

I thought you might have more of an issue with the preponderance of the scantily clad cheerleaders!

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

That's pretty heavy.

Pitt was a 7.5 underdog against UNC.

7.5 on a neutral court is pretty large.

FWIW, I didn't see the money line on the Pitt - NC game but Pomeroy had it North Carolina -7 and he gave us a 25% chance to win. He has tomorrow's game Purdue -6 and gives Michigan a 29% chance to win.

 

[UPitt '89]

Akron has a .0000001% chance of an at large.

SDSU cannot pass Pitt.

Akron most definitely has a better chance than that. Their RPI is 29. You think the committee will leave a regular season champ with a Top 30 out of the dance? A team with a Top 30 RPI has only missed the tournament twice in 31 years.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Akron most definitely has a better chance than that. Their RPI is 29. You think the committee will leave a regular season champ with a Top 30 out of the dance? A team with a Top 30 RPI has only missed the tournament twice in 31 years.

They won't have a top 30 RPI if they lose.

There is a reason literally no one is talking about their at large chances.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Really, really, really good night for Pitt.

Tulsa and Houston lost. Both are done. Bad news is Memphis can steal a bid very late on Sunday and Pastner needs it to save his job.

St. Bonaventure lost. I think they are still in but have to be behind Pitt. With Davidson, be careful what you wish for. Davidson may give us another Top 50 win by beating VCU but then they are a win away from stealing a bid.

South Carolina lost. They are in but behind Pitt now also I think.

Also, SDSU and Akron holding up.

I think Pitt has a pretty good chance to avoid Dayton and we are a near lock now.

So, tomorrow we root for:

UConn to beat Temple. I think UConn may be in regardless but Temple is out with a loss.

Tulane to beat Memphis. No way Tulane wins 4 in 4 to steal a bid.

Akron and SDSU to win

Purdue to beat Michigan

 

[UPitt '89]

They won't have a top 30 RPI if they lose.

There is a reason literally no one is talking about their at large chances.

Akron's resume > Monmouth and Wichita State's resumes

 

[whirlybird optio]

Really, really, really good night for Pitt.

Tulsa and Houston lost. Both are done. Bad news is Memphis can steal a bid very late on Sunday and Pastner needs it to save his job.

St. Bonaventure lost. I think they are still in but have to be behind Pitt. With Davidson, be careful what you wish for. Davidson may give us another Top 50 win by beating VCU but then they are a win away from stealing a bid.

South Carolina lost. They are in but behind Pitt now also I think.

Also, SDSU and Akron holding up.

I think Pitt has a pretty good chance to avoid Dayton and we are a near lock now.

So, tomorrow we root for:

UConn to beat Temple. I think UConn may be in regardless but Temple is out with a loss.

Tulane to beat Memphis. No way Tulane wins 4 in 4 to steal a bid.

Akron and SDSU to win

Purdue to beat Michigan

Totally agree, but I think we are at the point where even if everything breaks wrong, we're still in.

Remember, if Davidson wins tomorrow, I think we pass VCU.

Akron is not getting a bid over Pitt, everyone here can just stop that.

The Memphis effect to me means that if Temple would lose to them in the finals, I dunno...

The AAC is only getting 3 in.

 

[UPitt '89]

Totally agree, but I think we are at the point where even if everything breaks wrong, we're still in.

Remember, if Davidson wins tomorrow, I think we pass VCU.

Akron is not getting a bid over Pitt, everyone here can just stop that.

The Memphis effect to me means that if Temple would lose to them in the finals, I dunno...

The AAC is only getting 3 in.

Akron can't get a bid over Pitt... but they can get a bid over some of the "last four in" types.

 

[Piranha]

Temple winning their tournament is best case scenario.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

They won't have a top 30 RPI if they lose.

There is a reason literally no one is talking about their at large chances.

Akron has ZERO Top 75 wins and 5 losses worse than 100. I dont even know why I talk about them. They absolutely have to win.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Akron's resume > Monmouth and Wichita State's resumes

Puhlezze.

Marquee OOC win: Iona.

Come on.

Let's just all be real here. They are not getting an at large bid. They wouldn't even be in the next 4 out. It doesn't matter what their RPI is now, because it will drop 10 spots with a loss tomorrow.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Akron has ZERO Top 75 wins and 5 losses worse than 100. I dont even know why I talk about them. They absolutely have to win.

Thank you.

It's not close.

Georgia has a better chance right now with a loss in the SEC finals. LSU has a better chance with a loss in the SEC finals.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Temple winning their tournament is best case scenario.

I actually think UConn winning is. I'm rooting for UConn tomorrow.

 

[pitt-girl]

I thought you might have more of an issue with the preponderance of the scantily clad cheerleaders!

Eh - scantily clad cheerleaders don't threaten me as they could be my daughter at this point (which I never had as all my daughters had a penis! - but that is not relevant to this discussion).

 

[UPitt '89]

Puhlezze.

Marquee OOC win: Iona.

Come on.

Let's just all be real here. They are not getting an at large bid. They wouldn't even be in the next 4 out. It doesn't matter what their RPI is now, because it will drop 10 spots with a loss tomorrow.

A. the reason nobody is talking about them as a "bubble" team is because they are in most bracketologies as the auto-bid. They are a 12-seed in most of them.

B. Dropping 10 spots still leaves them with a Top 40 RPI.

C. If Akron loses in the MAC final, I can see them getting a spot in Dayton.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Temple winning their tournament is best case scenario.

No its not. Best case is UConn to win it because I think Temple is out with a loss tomorrow. Not to mention if UConn loses tomorrow, we could very well see them in Dayton and I have no idea how Ollie screwed that team because they have an embarrassing amount of talent. Would NOT want to play them Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

[whirlybird optio]

A. the reason nobody is talking about them as a "bubble" team is because they are in most bracketologies as the auto-bid. They are a 12-seed in most of them.

B. Dropping 10 spots still leaves them with a Top 40 RPI.

C. If Akron loses in the MAC final, I can see them getting a spot in Dayton.

1) if they had a shot at an at large, they'd be higher than a 12.

2) doesnt matter

3) I can't.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

(which I never had as all my daughters had a penis! - but that is not relevant to this discussion).

Heeeeeeeey-ooooooo!

 

[cabe23]

Uconn would probably knock Temple behind us with a loss but Uconn is going to be tired ad hell.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

UConn will be Temple IMO.

 

[BFo8]

Akron has a .0000001% chance of an at large.

SDSU cannot pass Pitt.

Whirly, I truly appreciate that you are one of the few that has always looked at things from a national perspective and not just inside the Pitt bubble.

No reason to discuss Akron, they have absolutely no chance without the auto, even their own fans would tell you this. As much as I would like to see SDSU in for personal reasons, they have a very, very slim chance of making it without winning the MW tournament.

UPitt you are way off on this one. Just like that website is way way off on their probabilities on teams making the tournament. Appreciate the job you do, but if I could bet into the percentages that website gives to make the tournament they would be out of business very quickly.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Whirly, I truly appreciate that you are one of the few that has always looked at things from a national perspective and not just inside the Pitt bubble.

No reason to discuss Akron, they have absolutely no chance without the auto, even their own fans would tell you this. As much as I would like to see SDSU in for personal reasons, they have a very, very slim chance of making it without winning the MW tournament.

UPitt you are way off on this one. Just like that website is way way off on their probabilities on teams making the tournament. Appreciate the job you do, but if I could bet into the percentages that website gives to make the tournament they would be out of business very quickly.

It's like Valpo. They just aren't there. At a certain point, you need good wins.

To me, the most interesting at large is Wichita. I think they'll be in Dayton, but anything from a 7 seed to out of the field altogether wouldn't totally shock (no pun intended) me.

 

[Blair_45]

Lunardi has Pitt as an 11 seed playing Vandy in Dayton with the winner playing a struggling Iowa team. If we were to have to play in Dayton worst case scenario I would sign up for both these match ups.

 

[BFo8]

It's like Valpo. They just aren't there. At a certain point, you need good wins.

To me, the most interesting at large is Wichita. I think they'll be in Dayton, but anything from a 7 seed to out of the field altogether wouldn't totally shock (no pun intended) me.

Valpo not getting there, better chance than Akron to be sure, but still not going to happen.

Wichita St a very unusual case. No one can deny they're not as strong this year, but the Van Fleet injury + prior history may indeed get them in. If they do go to Dayton they will probably take a lot of public money, and they will probably lose.