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Heisman Pricing

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WVUinColumbus

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Dec 23, 2007
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When it comes to gambling you always need to take advantage of markets that are clearly incorrect. Heisman market is wrong. Bama QB is -200 and the next is Stroud at around +400 or so and then it’s a bunch of longer shots.

Bama QB is not winning Heisman if they don’t beat UGA and that game yesterday cements it IMO. There is considerable Bama fatigue in college football and voters won’t vote for a good (not great) QB from Bama that doesn’t make CFP. If they beat UGA, he wins it. (Unrelated but Aaron Rodgers won’t win MVP because of his controversy around Covid and voters will certainly penalize him for it….which is a shame but reality. You have to put yourself in the mindset of a voter).

Stroud benefitted from having one of the best WR corps in the history of college football….yes, they are that good and carried that team (along with the spectacular Henderson at RB). Just don’t think he has enough now that they arent in championship game.

The guys I would put some $ on would be Jordan Davis (great player on the unit that has been THE story in college football), Walker, Pickett and Corral. I think the lack of marquee games is going to hurt KP, unfortunately. However, if he goes off in the next game then he has a shot.

These guys are currently priced lower than they should be and there’s value with all of them. I really think one of these 4 win it. If I had to put more down on one of them it would be Jordan Davis.
 
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Can you please just go away. No marquee games wtf are you talking about. Go enjoy BYU joining your conference
 
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In most betting sites Pickett is now the clear third choice. I don’t see how Stroud wins it without another game.

If Pickett goes bananas against Wake, and Young struggles…who knows. It’s not going to be a runaway vote
 
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TFBaum said:
Can you please just go away. No marquee games wtf are you talking about. Go enjoy BYU joining your conference
Click to expand...

You are wrong and the OP has a valid point.

No one saw Pickett last night. No one.

If Pitt had a meaningful traditional rivalry over Thanksgiving like we used to, and like other football schools have, then the entire nation would have an opportunity to see Pickett.

Instead, he received no benefit to his Heisman chances.

In fact, I will go as far as to say that IF Pickett is not invited to NYC, the case can be made that voters ignored him this past week since they did not see him play.
 
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whirlybird optio said:
In most betting sites Pickett is now the clear third choice. I don’t see how Stroud wins it without another game.

If Pickett goes bananas against Wake, and Young struggles…who knows. It’s not going to be a runaway vote
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If he crushes Wake (marquee game), then he absolutely has a chance. This market is not right. Young (that’s the QB from Bama that I couldn’t remember his name) isn’t winning if UGA beats Bama.

I honestly think that Pickett and Davis are looking like best shots right now after thinking more about it. Corral and Walker are done playing.
 
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WVUinColumbus said:
When it comes to gambling you always need to take advantage of markets that are clearly incorrect. Heisman market is wrong. Bama QB is -200 and the next is Stroud at around +400 or so and then it’s a bunch of longer shots.

Bama QB is not winning Heisman if they don’t beat UGA and that game yesterday cements it IMO. There is considerable Bama fatigue in college football and voters won’t vote for a good (not great) QB from Bama that doesn’t make CFP. If they beat UGA, he wins it. (Unrelated but Aaron Rodgers won’t win MVP because of his controversy around Covid and voters will certainly penalize him for it….which is a shame but reality. You have to put yourself in the mindset of a voter).

Stroud benefitted from having one of the best WR corps in the history of college football….yes, they are that good and carried that team (along with the spectacular Henderson at RB). Just don’t think he has enough now that they arent in championship game.

The guys I would put some $ on would be Jordan Davis (great player on the unit that has been THE story in college football), Walker, Pickett and Corral. I think the lack of marquee games is going to hurt KP, unfortunately. However, if he goes off in the next game then he has a shot.

These guys are currently priced lower than they should be and there’s value with all of them. I really think one of these 4 win it. If I had to put more down on one of them it would be Jordan Davis.
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wrong site sparky
 
Las Panteras said:
You are wrong and the OP has a valid point.

No one saw Pickett last night. No one.

If Pitt had a meaningful traditional rivalry over Thanksgiving like we used to, and like other football schools have, then the entire nation would have an opportunity to see Pickett.

Instead, he received no benefit to his Heisman chances.

In fact, I will go as far as to say that IF Pickett is not invited to NYC, the case can be made that voters ignored him this past week since they did not see him play.
Click to expand...
He’s going to NYC unless he has clunker next week.
 
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WVUinColumbus said:
If he crushes Wake (marquee game), then he absolutely has a chance. This market is not right. Young (that’s the QB from Bama that I couldn’t remember his name) isn’t winning if UGA beats Bama.

I honestly think that Pickett and Davis are looking like best shots right now after thinking more about it. Corral and Walker are done playing.
Click to expand...
I know no one saw him, but actually, that’s not the worst thing. He didn’t play lights out, but people will see 4 TD passes.
 
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WVUinColumbus said:
When it comes to gambling you always need to take advantage of markets that are clearly incorrect. Heisman market is wrong. Bama QB is -200 and the next is Stroud at around +400 or so and then it’s a bunch of longer shots.

Bama QB is not winning Heisman if they don’t beat UGA and that game yesterday cements it IMO. There is considerable Bama fatigue in college football and voters won’t vote for a good (not great) QB from Bama that doesn’t make CFP. If they beat UGA, he wins it. (Unrelated but Aaron Rodgers won’t win MVP because of his controversy around Covid and voters will certainly penalize him for it….which is a shame but reality. You have to put yourself in the mindset of a voter).

Stroud benefitted from having one of the best WR corps in the history of college football….yes, they are that good and carried that team (along with the spectacular Henderson at RB). Just don’t think he has enough now that they arent in championship game.

The guys I would put some $ on would be Jordan Davis (great player on the unit that has been THE story in college football), Walker, Pickett and Corral. I think the lack of marquee games is going to hurt KP, unfortunately. However, if he goes off in the next game then he has a shot.

These guys are currently priced lower than they should be and there’s value with all of them. I really think one of these 4 win it. If I had to put more down on one of them it would be Jordan Davis.
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Ohio State found out that it’s tough when your QB has to come from behind because your defense can’t tackle.
Heisman is now and always has been a question of popularity and mood swings. I hate hearing about it in September and October.
Whoever wins is beyond me. But getting an invite is cool.
BTW, Troy Smith put on 20 pounds the year he won and it arguably cost Ohio State a national championship.
 
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I like where you’re going with this, but doesn’t Heisman voting occur before the conference championships?
 
HailToPitt725 said:
I like where you’re going with this, but doesn’t Heisman voting occur before the conference championships?
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No. The deadline is like day(s) after conference championship games.

There are approximately 900 votes and you’d be surprised how many have already turned in their ballot. It’s a big problem and probably why those odds favor the 2 QB. People are lazy. Could you imagine having a Heisman vote and not allowing the season to play out?

NFL MVP vote is much better process and only has 50 votes.
 
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Las Panteras said:
You are wrong and the OP has a valid point.

No one saw Pickett last night. No one.

If Pitt had a meaningful traditional rivalry over Thanksgiving like we used to, and like other football schools have, then the entire nation would have an opportunity to see Pickett.

Instead, he received no benefit to his Heisman chances.

In fact, I will go as far as to say that IF Pickett is not invited to NYC, the case can be made that voters ignored him this past week since they did not see him play.
Click to expand...
He said he had no marquee games and now you are claiming the only marquee games are Thanksgiving weekend. Does Clemson ring a bell? Does Tennessee ring a bell? Those were national TV games. Next week the ACC championship game. But you will discount it because it is against the Swiss and not the mighty Hawkeyes from Iowa
 
Seems like a year that is ripe for a defender, like Davis or Hutchinson. But then you have to consider who is voting. Neither of those guys have like Charles Woodson-level hype. I have no idea who they're going to select, and I don't think there are any right or wrong answers this year. It can't be Stroud. I think Young wins it if Bama beats Georgia. If Georgia wins and Pickett goes off, it could be him. If Georgia wins, Pitt doesn't, and neither Hutchinson nor Davis goes completely off, I think they'll just give it to Walker.
 
It’s kind of funny how Alabama’s quarterbacks don’t do very well in the pro’s, maybe it’s because they have the best line and offensive weapons you can buy? Love to see some of those guys on a lesser team with lesser weapons and see what there stats end up being
 
whirlybird optio said:
I know no one saw him, but actually, that’s not the worst thing. He didn’t play lights out, but people will see 4 TD passes.
Click to expand...
Pitt mostly played smart. They knew the were the better team and would only lose with a 3 turnover game.

The only mistake was the interception going for the TD to put the game away. The smarter play was to bleed clock and play for a field goal. We did the when we got the ball back.

Even that interception probably never happens if Addison does not have a slight stumble near the end zone. Hell, maybe he even catches it for a TD.
 
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Kenny did more with less talent surrounding him than most of these other candidates. The Heisman trophy should be awarded to him on that basis alone!!!!! H2P!!!!
 
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TFBaum said:
He said he had no marquee games and now you are claiming the only marquee games are Thanksgiving weekend. Does Clemson ring a bell? Does Tennessee ring a bell? Those were national TV games. Next week the ACC championship game. But you will discount it because it is against the Swiss and not the mighty Hawkeyes from Iowa
Click to expand...
Every game is a national TV game. What are you talking about? Are you saying that a marquee game equates to a nationally televised game? Obviously, that’s incorrect.

If you’re going to crush my post, at least respond with substantive info.
 
TFBaum said:
Can you please just go away. No marquee games wtf are you talking about. Go enjoy BYU joining your conference
Click to expand...
Seems to me you’re overreacting just because he has WVU in his handle.

I think his assessment is correct w/r to Kenny. He hasn’t played bad but he definitely wasn’t lights out in many of the matchups once he and Pitt hit the national spotlight after beating Clemson.

Again, not that he played bad just not overwhelming to catapult him near the top. Still one more chance this coming weekend.

Also agree on his assessment of Young. Many were saying he cemented the Heisman yesterday. I don’t know, the nice TD pass to send it to OT definitely helped. But if you consider his offense had put up a big fat zero until late, ?? He can definitely cement it by beating UGA, or at the same time lose it.

One thing I don’t recall, when do the Heisman voters cast their vote. Are they allowed to cast them now, or before the upcoming conference championship games and, if so, how many of them do tend to cast early?
 
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whirlybird optio said:
I know no one saw him, but actually, that’s not the worst thing. He didn’t play lights out, but people will see 4 TD passes.
Click to expand...
Yep, you’re right on that. No way voters get to watch all these games. Our game last night which likely wasn’t watched by many and not against a quality opponent served one purpose, pad stats for voters that will pull up and compare total season stats to help make their decision. Too bad he threw that one INT on that long ball late.
 
WVUinColumbus said:
No. The deadline is like day(s) after conference championship games.

There are approximately 900 votes and you’d be surprised how many have already turned in their ballot. It’s a big problem and probably why those odds favor the 2 QB. People are lazy. Could you imagine having a Heisman vote and not allowing the season to play out?

NFL MVP vote is much better process and only has 50 votes.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I posed this question in a reply before seeing yours here. Was wondering how many voters might have their ballots already cast before this coming weekend’s games.
 
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NCanton Panther said:
Yep, you’re right on that. No way voters get to watch all these games. Our game last night which likely wasn’t watched by many and not against a quality opponent served one purpose, pad stats for voters that will pull up and compare total season stats to help make their decision. Too bad he threw that one INT on that long ball late.
Click to expand...
That play may have been a TD had Addison not had a slight stumble
 
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gary2 said:
That play may have been a TD had Addison not had a slight stumble
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Yeah he definitely had a noticeable stumble there. He would have had a chance but the Cuse DB was still in good position so it would have been a toss up.
 
WVUinColumbus said:
Every game is a national TV game. What are you talking about? Are you saying that a marquee game equates to a nationally televised game? Obviously, that’s incorrect.

If you’re going to crush my post, at least respond with substantive info.
Click to expand...
Clemson and Tennessee were marquee games. I think Pitt was the only ACC school to beat an SEC team this year I might be wrong. Clemson was huge and KP had a great game against a defense that was top ranked. The only issue I have with your post is the “lack of marquee games”. Where KP ends up in the race I don’t disagree with you
 
TFBaum said:
Clemson and Tennessee were marquee games. I think Pitt was the only ACC school to beat an SEC team this year I might be wrong. Clemson was huge and KP had a great game against a defense that was top ranked. The only issue I have with your post is the “lack of marquee games”. Where KP ends up in the race I don’t disagree with you
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I don’t know how you could possibly call Tennessee a marquee game??
 
TFBaum said:
He said he had no marquee games and now you are claiming the only marquee games are Thanksgiving weekend. Does Clemson ring a bell? Does Tennessee ring a bell? Those were national TV games. Next week the ACC championship game. But you will discount it because it is against the Swiss and not the mighty Hawkeyes from Iowa
Click to expand...

Please enlighten not only myself but all the other posters here.

Where....exactly where did Las Panteras state the only marquee game is Thanksgiving weekend?

Ill wait....take all the time you need to pull your head out of your ass........
 
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