These teams are locks: Kansas, Houston, Bama, UCLA, Purdue, Baylor, Texas, Arizona, Tennessee, Kansas St, Marquette, UConn, Iowa St, UVA, Gonzaga, Indiana, Xavier, Miami, St Mary’s, Creighton, TCU, SDSU, Illinois, Providence, Duke, Iowa, Michigan St. Rutgers, Mizzou, Arkansas, Texas AM, Auburn, NC St.
That’s 33 teams. These teams all have seed 8 or higher on bracket matrix. They will all be in the tournament. 100%
These teams are should be in: Kentucky, Nevada, Florida Atlantic, Ok St, Pitt.
That’s 5 teams who would almost certainly be in if a bracket was picked today (98% or higher, and would have to really screw up to not make it). Also, I think Florida Atlantic would drop all the way out with a loss, one more loss, but it would be close. They are the AQ in Conference UsA right now.
Here’s the “bubble” - WVU, Boise, Memphis, Miss St, UNC, Wisconsin, USC, New Mexico, Utah St, Penn St, Clemson, Texas Tech, Oregon, Arizona St, Michigan.
That’s 15 teams.
As of right now, assuming no bid stealers - 6 of the 15 will get in.
So, if you are keeping score, Pitt would have to fall completely out of “should be in”, where they presumably could be seeded ahead of any of those teams, and then have 6 teams on the bubble pass them. We’d have to really, really screw up.
So, yea…it sucks to see us in “Last 4 byes” etc. But that’s still more solidly in the field that you realize. these teams below us would have to pass us, and most teams only have 3 games left. Not a lot of time.
Like, I don’t think Arizona St or Oregon could pass us unless we lose out and they win out to the PAC 12 finals. What’s the odds of that - .005%?
Texas Tech would need to win out or close and win multiple Big 12 tournament games. Could happen, but seems unlikely. Same with Penn St/Michigan in Big 10.
WVU, Wisconsin, miss St could certainly pass us, but they are in the field already.
So, again, if you want to make the tournament, really - really root against teams not in the field right now (Michigan, PSU, Texas Tech, All Mountain West teams lol)
That’s 33 teams. These teams all have seed 8 or higher on bracket matrix. They will all be in the tournament. 100%
These teams are should be in: Kentucky, Nevada, Florida Atlantic, Ok St, Pitt.
That’s 5 teams who would almost certainly be in if a bracket was picked today (98% or higher, and would have to really screw up to not make it). Also, I think Florida Atlantic would drop all the way out with a loss, one more loss, but it would be close. They are the AQ in Conference UsA right now.
Here’s the “bubble” - WVU, Boise, Memphis, Miss St, UNC, Wisconsin, USC, New Mexico, Utah St, Penn St, Clemson, Texas Tech, Oregon, Arizona St, Michigan.
That’s 15 teams.
As of right now, assuming no bid stealers - 6 of the 15 will get in.
So, if you are keeping score, Pitt would have to fall completely out of “should be in”, where they presumably could be seeded ahead of any of those teams, and then have 6 teams on the bubble pass them. We’d have to really, really screw up.
So, yea…it sucks to see us in “Last 4 byes” etc. But that’s still more solidly in the field that you realize. these teams below us would have to pass us, and most teams only have 3 games left. Not a lot of time.
Like, I don’t think Arizona St or Oregon could pass us unless we lose out and they win out to the PAC 12 finals. What’s the odds of that - .005%?
Texas Tech would need to win out or close and win multiple Big 12 tournament games. Could happen, but seems unlikely. Same with Penn St/Michigan in Big 10.
WVU, Wisconsin, miss St could certainly pass us, but they are in the field already.
So, again, if you want to make the tournament, really - really root against teams not in the field right now (Michigan, PSU, Texas Tech, All Mountain West teams lol)
