Bumping this now that it happened. I believe its possible that Pitt can lose 2 more games and get in but it would have to be the right losses.
Absolutely need at least a split of Wake/Clem. If we split those and win the rest, we are in, no question I believe. That would give us 3 Q1 wins or 4 if Wake moves back into the Top 30.
If we split Wake/Clem and lose a Q2 game at BC or home vs VT, I still think its possible we get in but it may require AT LEAST winning that 5/12 or 6/11 game or even winning that game + beating the 3 or 4 seed in the quarters.
If we lose to Wake and Clemson, we probably need to win the rest + make it to AT LEAST the ACC semis and maybe even to the Championship.
If we beat Wake and Clemson, we can probably lose 2 more in the regular season and get in.
The huge wildcard in Pitt's favor though is road wins. The committee always says they value road wins but this isnt a metric I can say that I know how much it impacts selection. Incredibly, of all the Power 6 teams, Pitt currently is tied for 1st with 6 road wins and you figure they'd have to chalk up a few more if they are even considered to be on the bubble.