We may be able to get to Dayton at 12-8 because that would give us 2 really good Q1 wins, both on the road and another road win. Believe it or not, Pitt is tied for the #1 in the nation for P6 teams' road wins with 5. UVa would give them 6. Lets say we beat them but split Wake and Clemson to get us to 3 Q1s but then lose at BC or drop a home game, I think getting in at 12-8 is possible. Plus, there's the possibility NC State moves up a few spots to Q1 territory
If we win @ UVa
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They are very tough at home. I watched their D against Miami and if they play
like that against us we're gonna need our A game and then some. They're on a
seven game winning streak, and the other night at least, they looked like a
few years ago......suffocating D and efficient offense.
like that against us we're gonna need our A game and then some. They're on a
seven game winning streak, and the other night at least, they looked like a
few years ago......suffocating D and efficient offense.
Well, yea, they may win the ACC at this point. I dont think we win. Going to be really tough to score but you never know. Just saying that a win there basically puts us in the "we are probably going to make the NCAAT" category. I wouldn’t predict it. I said after the Clemson loss we wouldn't make it so that's the prediction. I obviously had UVa penciled in as an L. But if we win, I could be proven wrong.
Yea. I’m sort of in your camp. If we have a 2-0 week next week, 8-6 in the ACC, a gaudy road record for a bubble team, a NET probably in the 40s, I think Pitt is at absolute worst first 4 out….
Get to 12-8…who knows. I’ll even go one further, 11-9 with a win at Clemson and at UVA and 2 ACCT wins….maybe???
It’s not preposterous. Our NET is gonna be pretty good
If we lost to wake but beat Clemson and Virginia there is a chance they get 4 Q1 as wake bumped up to 32 last night. They need to be top 30 for a Q1 home. They also screwed Pitt in almost dropping GT down to a Q3.
Yea, lets say you beat Clem, Wake, and UVa but lose to BC, VT, and a Top 75 (Q2) NC St, that probably gets us in at 11-9 because we'd potentially have 6 Q1 wins
@ Duke
Wake (if they get into Top 30)
@ NC St (if they get into Top 75)
@ UVa
@ Wake
@ Clem
Just excited that its February and I can tune into a Pitt game next week thinking in my head that if we win it, there's a good chance we make the NCAA Tournament. I think this is what Yinzers never understood about college basketball when Jamie was here. The regular season, the fight for a 1 seed or a double bye (back then) or just making the NCAAT is exciting. These are like playoff games to me. So I appreciate having a team that has us playing for something
1) We still have a lot of work to do.
2) You are putting way too much emphasis on Q1 and Q2 wins and no where near enough emphasis on road record.
Our road record puts us into a significantly better position than you think. With that said, we still have a lot of work to do.
Maybe. However, if we lose to UVa and maybe win at Wake or whatever and end with only 2 Q1s, I would doubt there was ever a P6 team that got an at-large with 2 or fewer Q1s
Seriously??? If your team doesn't have a pretty firm grip on a NCAA Tourney bid by now, it means they aren't very good. ...or at least they haven't been to this point. I think Yinzers DO understand that. Go back and read some Steeler threads. How many people are excited just to be in the hunt for a playoff birth?
It's your hard core college basketball fans that appreciate seeing teams start to come together, find their identity, and maximize their potential, whatever that may be.
Seriously?
It was a measly 2 years ago that North Carolina was 16-7 coming off a humiliating blowout loss to Duke at home. UNC fans already wanted their new coach fired. They won 8 of their last 10 in the regular season to get an 8 seed. Then went to the Final 4 and lost in the national title game. A Freshmen backcourt took them to the final 4.
I agree with most of what you’re saying except for the focus on UVA. Yeah that would be a big win but you go on to say split @Wake and @Clemson. Winning @UVA would obviously be the most impressive but really what we need to do is win any 2 of those 3 tough road games. Then we could maybe afford 1 other loss and still get in.
Maybe, but I am operating under the assumption that UVa isnt going to lose many more games, if any so their NET is probably going to wind up in the 20s. Clemson and Wake have good NETs now but you can't count on them sustaining it. UVa is "back" in terms of them running through the ACC but losing the first weekend.
This is so stupid, incorrect and any other word I could think of I don’t know where to begin.
I laid out 3 weeks ago what they had to do to get in. They’re on track. Just shut up and enjoy the ride if you’re gonna be a naysayer. The team is hot
No, it's a 100% spot on. My post had nothing to do whether or not they make the tournament.
Its assinine. Not only did I make the point to you with North Carolina, Auburn did it in 2019,
In 2019, Auburn was 16-8 in the middle of February. They had a losing SEC record on February 13th. They won 6 of their last 7 games, then won the SEC tournament, then went to the final 4.
This is a team that had a similar record to Pitt this year in the middle of February.
Ive said it time and time again, teams that get hot late in the season make runs. The last 10 games of the regular season used to get special treatment in NCAA tournament seeding for rewarding teams that finish hot. What happens in February and March is 1000 times more important than what happens in November.
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With the way we struggled against NC State's defense in the second half I think we are getting overly optimistic against Virginia. Sure we can beat them if we have a good night shooting but those chances arent great
Very, very true ... unfortunately. Plus Virginia is playing really well right now.
Obviously you and Insider are having a little trouble with reading comprehension. Here was my post. See the part in bold? You both totally ignored it. ...And you kinda proved my point. Do you think Auburn or Carolina fans were excited about their team at this point in the season back then? I don't.
Wow. North Carolina fans who were ranked 1 in the country preseason weren’t happy with a team that missed the tournament at this point in the season! Excellent point!
LOL. Same. I swear I was replying to Insider. That's odd. I'll do a delete copy and paste and see if it happens again.
Holy shit! That's 2 times you have missed the original point. And this time, your lack of reading comprehension totally missed Vader's counter point in that he and I were talking about the 2021-22 UNC team that made the run to the title game.
So North Carolina, one of the 5 winningest programs of all time and their insane fan base, is your good example. Got it. Intelligent posting. No wonder you’re on mute
Agree, I think @UVA is their toughest game left, although some might argue Clemson.
They have to take care of business at home, then go 2-2 in the remaining road games. Simply can't lose another home game.
We have not beat Clemson since world war 2 in basketball.
On a more serious level, its been 10 years since we have beat Clemson in basketball. And they have completely blown us off the court in dominating fashion in a good number of those losses.
I cant for the life of me understand why this team shoots lights out almost every time against us. We at least give Virginia good close games a lot of the time.
The last game against Clemson, they actually didnt shoot the lights out but usually all the Clemson games are the exact same. They make like 8 of their first 9 3s and go up 31-12 early.
The last time we beat them was that Josh Newkirk buzzer beater. We have broken the NC St curse. Now have to do it to Clemson. Realistically, we can only lose 1 more game. If we lose 2, its possible we can get in but we'd need help in other ACC teams on the quad borderline moving up a quad.
That Missouri loss really hurts. I dont want to say if people attended that game, we would have won but that's the type of midweek game you want to ensure people go to.
Another post demonstrating your lack of reading comprehension. Vader was the one that brought UNC into the conversation. And course UNC fans weren't happy.
It's obvious you don't even understand the original conversation. SMF was saying that the fight just to get in the NCAA tourney is exciting to him, much like the fight to get a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney. He went on to say that he didn't think yinzers understood college basketball, because they don't buy into the similarities of how each game is like a playoff game in both scenarios.
I'm just saying that a casual take-it-or-leave-it non-hard core fan understands enough to know that if you are fighting for a #1 seed, the team is pretty damn good. They will be more inclined to jump on the bandwagon. If the team doesn't have at least a firm grip on a NCAA tourney bid at this point, that kind of fan probably doesn't have much interest.
Yinzers understand winning and losing. If they aren't happy with their beloved Steelers just barely making the playoffs, I think it's absurd to say they don't understand college basketball just because they can't get excited about a local college team fighting like hell just to barely qualify for a 68 team tourney.
To clarify:
Of course if you are fighting for a 1 seed, you are going to have more people interested but in my experiences, it was only Pitt fans interested in the regular season back then. Casual yinzers didnt give a shit until the BET and NCAAT. It was Steelers and Pens season and they just tuned in in March.
During Dixon 2 and Capel 2, even a lot of Pitt fans arent paying attention because the team isnt good enough to win the whole thing. They dont care about fighting for one of the last at-large spots. This is why the Pete is empty. Just making the tournament or fighting to make the tournament isnt good enough for them.
Idk. The Pete seemed packed and rocking every game back then. It wasn't uncommon to have some Steelers or a celeb court side. They had a culture and a damn strong program. That all started to crumble after 2011.
Don't you think there was some interest back then?
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What a win at Virginia will do for me is get my interest on getting at least to the bubble. This game is huge but we’ve got to keep moving ahead. We left our room for error behind in the first half of the season.
Not saying anything that hasn’t already been said..it’s a given what really hurt us…Mizzou…..and not one but TWO Cuse losses.
So these are careful things to watch as well. Pitt was sort of viewed as lock late last season, but their final Q1/2 got messed up due to late season changes, which ultimately led to bubble just as much as late season losses.
Similarly this year, things out of their control will also be worth watching.
Pitt needs the following to happen:
Mizz must stay above 161 in Net. They are 146 now and one SEC blowout away from causing Pitt to have a Q4 loss. Pitt has one Q4 loss last year. Not a deathblow, but let’s not have one.
Ideally Purdue FW could bump up a few spots from 166 to 160 for another Q3 win.
WVU is only 7 spots away from a Q2 road win for Pitt….Go incels?
GT needs to stay in top 135 (currently 132) for it to remain a Q2 win.
Pitt only has Q1A ops left, which is where they can really make up ground as long as wake, Virginia and Clemson stay in top 40. Right now Pitt has 1 QA1 (@duke) and 2 Q2A (Wake, @NCsT).
Some bubbles lack that Q1A, but plenty with at least 2 wins right now. https://barttorvik.com/quadrants.php
Similarly this year, things out of their control will also be worth watching.
Pitt needs the following to happen:
Mizz must stay above 161 in Net. They are 146 now and one SEC blowout away from causing Pitt to have a Q4 loss. Pitt has one Q4 loss last year. Not a deathblow, but let’s not have one.
Ideally Purdue FW could bump up a few spots from 166 to 160 for another Q3 win.
WVU is only 7 spots away from a Q2 road win for Pitt….Go incels?
GT needs to stay in top 135 (currently 132) for it to remain a Q2 win.
Pitt only has Q1A ops left, which is where they can really make up ground as long as wake, Virginia and Clemson stay in top 40. Right now Pitt has 1 QA1 (@duke) and 2 Q2A (Wake, @NCsT).
Some bubbles lack that Q1A, but plenty with at least 2 wins right now. https://barttorvik.com/quadrants.php
I didn't realize Missouri was so close to a Q4 loss. I really feel like there's a home game penalty when you get to those Q3 and 4s. Like NC A&T and Missouri or FSU last year arent the same.
Pitt has the perfect kind of record for the committee to explain away whatever they do. Pitt not in “ bad loses to Syracuse”. Pitt in “winning at Duke”.
