July 10, 2011
Welcome back to In the Pitt, PantherLair.com’s breakdown of Pitt recruiting. Last week we gave a full rundown on Pitt’s pursuit of offensive recruitshttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?fid=551&tid=159962117&mid=159962117&sid=996&style=2; today the focus is on the defense.
Top of the Pitt
As we did in last week’s In the Pitt, we’ll be going position-by-position through Pitt’s recruiting on defense. We’ll look at each position’s needs, Pitt’s top targets, and where the Panthers stand with those recruits.
There are three resources to keep handy while you process the information below.
The 2012 Offer Sheethttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/offerlist.asp?SID=996&Sport=1&Year=2012&School=62
The 2012 Commitment Listhttp://rivals.yahoo.com/pittsburgh/football/recruiting/commitments/2012
The 2011 Scholarship Boardhttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=996&CID=1219010
Each of those resources is valuable as a reference tool when discussing Pitt’s recruiting, as each factors into the process. The offer sheet tells you which recruits have scholarship offers from Pitt; the commitment list tells you who has accepted an offer from Pitt; and the Scholarship Board - a personal favorite - lays out the entire Pitt roster, broken down by position and class so you can tell exactly where there are holes on the roster and when those holes will become urgent needs.
The Scholarship Board is especially useful when considering an important rule-of-thumb in recruiting:
The three-year-out rule.
The three-year-out rule
Note: This section on the three-year-out rule was also included in last week’s In the Pitt.
The “three-year-out” rule is a loose guideline for recruiting that says you line up your target numbers at each position based on three-year projections. The idea is that the players you recruit this year will be in position to contribute when they have redshirt sophomore or junior eligibility, thus replacing the current players in their third year of eligibility.
In theory, that would mean that recruits in the class of 2012 will be looked at to replace players who came in the recruiting class of 2009.
Of course, the “three-year-out” rule relies largely on best-case scenarios: ideally, every recruit would redshirt and be ready to contribute by his redshirt sophomore season. Also, ideally you won’t have to rely on any player prior to his third year in the program.
We know that none of those conditions are guaranteed; likewise, you can’t predict injuries, academic casualties, or the player who bursts onto the scene as a freshman and leaves after his sophomore year (like Dion Lewis).
So while the “three-year-out” rule is not a perfect scenario, it does offer a basic guideline by which to build a class. Of course, several elements can thwart the intent of the “three-year-out” rule, like immediate need at a position - such as running back last year - or a change in philosophy that creates a need at a position.
All things being equal, though, coaches generally recruit by the “three-year-out” rule (and there is an inherent logic in the concept, so even if a coach doesn’t acknowledge the idea, he’s probably operating on it anyway, where he knows it or not).
So as we look at the class of 2012 and consider the top targets and target numbers at each position - starting today with the offense - we’ll consider four factors:
- Who the players in the class of 2012 will be replacing in three years (current sophomore-eligible players who will be seniors in 2013)
- Who the upperclassmen will be in 2014, when the current recruits are in their third years of eligibility
- The target number at each position for the class of 2012
- The top targets at each position.
As Todd Graham told us two weeks ago, Pitt will probably look to take “18-20” recruits in this class. Naturally, that number is always in motion and is never a set figure - even after Signing Day; look at what has occurred over the past four months - but we’ll use it as a general base.
Now then, let’s look at the defensive positions.
Defensive line
2013 seniors
T.J. Clemmings* (DE)
Aaron Donald* (DT/DE)
Tyrone Ezell (DT)
Jack Lippert (DT/DE)
2014 upperclassmen
Khaynin Mosley-Smith (DT) - senior/redshirt junior
* - Clemmings and Donald will both be true sophomores in 2011; one or both could take a redshirt over the next two years and be redshirt juniors in 2013, thus keeping them on the roster for 2014.
The defensive line will be an interesting position to watch as Todd Graham’s recruiting takes shape and evolves over the next few years. After being a focal point for Dave Wannstedt’s 4-3 system, the new 3-4 defense used by Graham and his staff shifts the focus to the middle of the unit. From a pure numbers standpoint, Graham won’t recruit as many defensive linemen because Pitt won’t play quite as many.
Of course, there are always caveats, and one is that we might not see the type of recruits targeted necessarily change altogether. Wannstedt liked quicker, undersized, more athletic defensive ends, oftentimes players who were converted linebackers. Graham wants similar players for the Panther linebacker position, so to a certain extent, both staffs will be recruiting the same types of players, just for different positions.
Target number: 3
Commitments: Myles Hilliard (DE)
Top targets: Tyrique Jarrett (DT)
Admittedly, I left a few recruits off that list of targets. If you look at the offer sheet, you’ll see names like Jarron Jones, but I just don’t see Pitt having very high chances with those four.
I’m guessing this defensive line class will have two defensive ends and one defensive tackle, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it shifted to three ends or two tackles and an end. Actually, I would be a little surprised by that last scenario (two tackles and one end) because they appear to be in better shape with the end prospects than the tackles.
Hilliard is already on board, and both Render and Dyson seem very high on Pitt. That could make the class right there, although Pitt could look for a tackle to add to those three ends if things played out that way. Pitt would appear to be in good shape with Jarrett from Allderdice, but I’ve heard a lot of questions about his academics, and I’m not sure he would qualify.
Tony Gibson appears to have a good relationship with Deleon, but that would take a visit north, which I do not believe he has made yet. And Borne is high on Pitt, but he is higher on Tennessee.
Linebackers
2013 seniors
Kevin Adams (OLB)
Carl Fleming (OLB)
Bryan Murphy* (OLB)
Shane Gordon (ILB)
Dan Mason (ILB)
2014 upperclassmen
Todd Thomas (OLB) - redshirt senior
Eric Williams (OLB) - redshirt senior
Devin Cook (OLB) - senior/redshirt junior
LaQuentin Smith (OLB) - senior/redshirt junior
Nicholas Grigsby (ILB) - senior/redshirt junior
Ejuan Price (ILB) - senior/redshirt junior
* - Murphy did not redshirt as a true freshman in 2010, so he could take a redshirt over the next two years and have junior eligibility in 2013.
Like the defensive line, Pitt’s linebacker recruiting will undergo a shift from the Wannstedt era. Primarily, Pitt now has four linebacker positions, and those four break down into three distinct groups:
- The Panther linebacker - a hybrid linebacker/defensive end; an outside linebacker who functions largely as a stand-up pass-rusher
- The Spur linebacker - a hybrid linebacker/safety; an outside linebacker who will rush on occasion, but more often draws coverage assignments
- The inside linebackers - traditional strong and weak-side linebackers; will blitz on occasion, but mostly reacts to run or pass
As such, each of those three positions requires a unique player “type.” Just as there are considerable differences between Todd Thomas and Bryan Murphy, so will there be significant contrasts under the umbrella of “linebacker recruiting” with Todd Graham at the helm.
So the target number is for the entire group of linebackers, but it will have to be broken down further.
Target number: 4
Commitments: Alkwan Williams (Panther)
Top targets: J.P. Holtz (Panther)
That’s not a long list of targets, but it’s conceivable that Pitt might only take three linebackers. Coleman isn’t quite a lock, but he’s been high on Pitt for quite some time, and it shouldn’t be too long before he joins the Panthers’ commitment list. Then again, when a recruit seems like he’s headed for a school but he holds off on committing, you start to wonder. Still, I’m pretty sure Coleman will pick Pitt.
Rippy is interesting. For the longest time, Florida appeared to be his destination. But he said in his live chat this past week that Florida was “what my heart was set on until something occurred ... I wanted to commit but they weren't ready to accept my commitment. Now I'm looking around.”
That’s nothing but good news for Pitt, who fell behind in the pursuit of Rippy after the coaching change. Still, I think the SEC is Rippy’s preferred conference, but Pitt’s doing everything they can to convince the four-star linebacker to stay home.
Holtz is a local product - Shaler Area - who originally came on the scene as a tight end, but his recruiting has shifted to more of a defensive focus. 4-3 teams are recruiting him as a defensive end, while most 3-4 teams like Pitt like him as an outside linebacker. Pitt is in good shape with Holtz as well; he visited Pitt this past week and will make a final visit to Penn State later this month before making his decision. I get the impression it will be one of the two in-state schools.
Porchia is apparently pretty high on Pitt, but I haven’t been able to track him down and talk to him myself. Truthfully, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pitt added Coleman to the class of Conwell and Williams and was content to sign those three. At the same time, they won’t be turning down Rippy, Porchia, or Holtz (or any of the others on the offer sheet).
Cornerback
2013 seniors
K’Waun Williams*
2014 upperclassmen
Cullen Christian - redshirt senior
Lloyd Carrington - senior/redshirt junior
Lafayette Pitts - senior/redshirt junior
* - Williams did not redshirt as a true freshman in 2010; he could take a redshirt in the next two years and have junior eligibility in 2013.
Target number: 3
Commitments: William Parks
Top targets: Anthony Nixon
Pitt probably doesn’t need more than two cornerbacks in this class, but they seem to be in good shape with Banks, Coates, Mills, and Nixon, and if one of those three wanted to commit, I don’t see Pitt turning them down. Plus, I think Graham and the defensive coaches want to load up on corners for a variety of reasons.
Coates was high on Pitt prior to receiving an offer at the prospect camp in June, and while his interest is piqued in potential offers that could come in, I get the impression that Pitt could make a push for him.
Meanwhile, Banks has spoken highly of Pitt, and Mills picked up an offer from the Panthers in the past few weeks. Nixon has generally avoided doing recruiting interviews, but from what I’ve heard, Pitt’s in good shape with him. My best guess is that Pitt gets a commitment from one or two of the four - Coates, Banks, Mills, Nixon - to add to Geter and Parks and settles with that group. Even if Pitt misses on all three, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Panthers move on a corner midseason or postseason.
Safety
2013 seniors
Jason Hendricks
2014 upperclassmen
Ray Vinopal - redshirt senior
Brandon Ifill - redshirt senior
Jason Frimpong - senior/redshirt junior
Roderick Ryles - senior/redshirt junior
Steve Williams - senior/redshirt junior
Target number: 2
Top targets: Bam Bradley
That’s a pretty small target list, but barring an “out-of-nowhere” prospect like Steve Williams last year, Cox and Bradley seem to make up Pitt’s safety targets at this point.
Pitt has been in great shape with Bradley since Nick Grigsby - his older brother - signed with Pitt in February, and it’s probably just a matter of time until he pulls the trigger for the Panthers.
Cox isn’t as much of a “near-sure thing,” but I get a good impression from him in relation to how he feels about Pitt. And if the Panthers could land Cox, it would be a huge get. Cox is big-time, and if both he and Rippy committed to Pitt - big if’s, but not out of the question - Pitt will have made a rather big statement in recruiting the WPIAL.
The coaches will be on the lookout for additional safety prospects, but if Pitt only gets one of the two safeties - Cox and Bradley - it might not be forced to scramble. With his size, William Parks could project as a safety, which would make the continued pursuit of Marchez Coates, Brandon Banks, Jalen Mills, and Anthony Nixon logical.
Overall, I think Pitt will try to sign five defensive backs; most likely, that will break down as three cornerbacks and two safeties.
Welcome back to In the Pitt, PantherLair.com’s breakdown of Pitt recruiting. Last week we gave a full rundown on Pitt’s pursuit of offensive recruitshttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?fid=551&tid=159962117&mid=159962117&sid=996&style=2; today the focus is on the defense.
Top of the Pitt
As we did in last week’s In the Pitt, we’ll be going position-by-position through Pitt’s recruiting on defense. We’ll look at each position’s needs, Pitt’s top targets, and where the Panthers stand with those recruits.
There are three resources to keep handy while you process the information below.
The 2012 Offer Sheethttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/offerlist.asp?SID=996&Sport=1&Year=2012&School=62
The 2012 Commitment Listhttp://rivals.yahoo.com/pittsburgh/football/recruiting/commitments/2012
The 2011 Scholarship Boardhttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=996&CID=1219010
Each of those resources is valuable as a reference tool when discussing Pitt’s recruiting, as each factors into the process. The offer sheet tells you which recruits have scholarship offers from Pitt; the commitment list tells you who has accepted an offer from Pitt; and the Scholarship Board - a personal favorite - lays out the entire Pitt roster, broken down by position and class so you can tell exactly where there are holes on the roster and when those holes will become urgent needs.
The Scholarship Board is especially useful when considering an important rule-of-thumb in recruiting:
The three-year-out rule.
The three-year-out rule
Note: This section on the three-year-out rule was also included in last week’s In the Pitt.
The “three-year-out” rule is a loose guideline for recruiting that says you line up your target numbers at each position based on three-year projections. The idea is that the players you recruit this year will be in position to contribute when they have redshirt sophomore or junior eligibility, thus replacing the current players in their third year of eligibility.
In theory, that would mean that recruits in the class of 2012 will be looked at to replace players who came in the recruiting class of 2009.
Of course, the “three-year-out” rule relies largely on best-case scenarios: ideally, every recruit would redshirt and be ready to contribute by his redshirt sophomore season. Also, ideally you won’t have to rely on any player prior to his third year in the program.
We know that none of those conditions are guaranteed; likewise, you can’t predict injuries, academic casualties, or the player who bursts onto the scene as a freshman and leaves after his sophomore year (like Dion Lewis).
So while the “three-year-out” rule is not a perfect scenario, it does offer a basic guideline by which to build a class. Of course, several elements can thwart the intent of the “three-year-out” rule, like immediate need at a position - such as running back last year - or a change in philosophy that creates a need at a position.
All things being equal, though, coaches generally recruit by the “three-year-out” rule (and there is an inherent logic in the concept, so even if a coach doesn’t acknowledge the idea, he’s probably operating on it anyway, where he knows it or not).
So as we look at the class of 2012 and consider the top targets and target numbers at each position - starting today with the offense - we’ll consider four factors:
- Who the players in the class of 2012 will be replacing in three years (current sophomore-eligible players who will be seniors in 2013)
- Who the upperclassmen will be in 2014, when the current recruits are in their third years of eligibility
- The target number at each position for the class of 2012
- The top targets at each position.
As Todd Graham told us two weeks ago, Pitt will probably look to take “18-20” recruits in this class. Naturally, that number is always in motion and is never a set figure - even after Signing Day; look at what has occurred over the past four months - but we’ll use it as a general base.
Now then, let’s look at the defensive positions.
Defensive line
2013 seniors
T.J. Clemmings* (DE)
Aaron Donald* (DT/DE)
Tyrone Ezell (DT)
Jack Lippert (DT/DE)
2014 upperclassmen
Khaynin Mosley-Smith (DT) - senior/redshirt junior
* - Clemmings and Donald will both be true sophomores in 2011; one or both could take a redshirt over the next two years and be redshirt juniors in 2013, thus keeping them on the roster for 2014.
The defensive line will be an interesting position to watch as Todd Graham’s recruiting takes shape and evolves over the next few years. After being a focal point for Dave Wannstedt’s 4-3 system, the new 3-4 defense used by Graham and his staff shifts the focus to the middle of the unit. From a pure numbers standpoint, Graham won’t recruit as many defensive linemen because Pitt won’t play quite as many.
Of course, there are always caveats, and one is that we might not see the type of recruits targeted necessarily change altogether. Wannstedt liked quicker, undersized, more athletic defensive ends, oftentimes players who were converted linebackers. Graham wants similar players for the Panther linebacker position, so to a certain extent, both staffs will be recruiting the same types of players, just for different positions.
Target number: 3
Commitments: Myles Hilliard (DE)
Top targets: Tyrique Jarrett (DT)
Admittedly, I left a few recruits off that list of targets. If you look at the offer sheet, you’ll see names like Jarron Jones, but I just don’t see Pitt having very high chances with those four.
I’m guessing this defensive line class will have two defensive ends and one defensive tackle, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it shifted to three ends or two tackles and an end. Actually, I would be a little surprised by that last scenario (two tackles and one end) because they appear to be in better shape with the end prospects than the tackles.
Hilliard is already on board, and both Render and Dyson seem very high on Pitt. That could make the class right there, although Pitt could look for a tackle to add to those three ends if things played out that way. Pitt would appear to be in good shape with Jarrett from Allderdice, but I’ve heard a lot of questions about his academics, and I’m not sure he would qualify.
Tony Gibson appears to have a good relationship with Deleon, but that would take a visit north, which I do not believe he has made yet. And Borne is high on Pitt, but he is higher on Tennessee.
Linebackers
2013 seniors
Kevin Adams (OLB)
Carl Fleming (OLB)
Bryan Murphy* (OLB)
Shane Gordon (ILB)
Dan Mason (ILB)
2014 upperclassmen
Todd Thomas (OLB) - redshirt senior
Eric Williams (OLB) - redshirt senior
Devin Cook (OLB) - senior/redshirt junior
LaQuentin Smith (OLB) - senior/redshirt junior
Nicholas Grigsby (ILB) - senior/redshirt junior
Ejuan Price (ILB) - senior/redshirt junior
* - Murphy did not redshirt as a true freshman in 2010, so he could take a redshirt over the next two years and have junior eligibility in 2013.
Like the defensive line, Pitt’s linebacker recruiting will undergo a shift from the Wannstedt era. Primarily, Pitt now has four linebacker positions, and those four break down into three distinct groups:
- The Panther linebacker - a hybrid linebacker/defensive end; an outside linebacker who functions largely as a stand-up pass-rusher
- The Spur linebacker - a hybrid linebacker/safety; an outside linebacker who will rush on occasion, but more often draws coverage assignments
- The inside linebackers - traditional strong and weak-side linebackers; will blitz on occasion, but mostly reacts to run or pass
As such, each of those three positions requires a unique player “type.” Just as there are considerable differences between Todd Thomas and Bryan Murphy, so will there be significant contrasts under the umbrella of “linebacker recruiting” with Todd Graham at the helm.
So the target number is for the entire group of linebackers, but it will have to be broken down further.
Target number: 4
Commitments: Alkwan Williams (Panther)
Top targets: J.P. Holtz (Panther)
That’s not a long list of targets, but it’s conceivable that Pitt might only take three linebackers. Coleman isn’t quite a lock, but he’s been high on Pitt for quite some time, and it shouldn’t be too long before he joins the Panthers’ commitment list. Then again, when a recruit seems like he’s headed for a school but he holds off on committing, you start to wonder. Still, I’m pretty sure Coleman will pick Pitt.
Rippy is interesting. For the longest time, Florida appeared to be his destination. But he said in his live chat this past week that Florida was “what my heart was set on until something occurred ... I wanted to commit but they weren't ready to accept my commitment. Now I'm looking around.”
That’s nothing but good news for Pitt, who fell behind in the pursuit of Rippy after the coaching change. Still, I think the SEC is Rippy’s preferred conference, but Pitt’s doing everything they can to convince the four-star linebacker to stay home.
Holtz is a local product - Shaler Area - who originally came on the scene as a tight end, but his recruiting has shifted to more of a defensive focus. 4-3 teams are recruiting him as a defensive end, while most 3-4 teams like Pitt like him as an outside linebacker. Pitt is in good shape with Holtz as well; he visited Pitt this past week and will make a final visit to Penn State later this month before making his decision. I get the impression it will be one of the two in-state schools.
Porchia is apparently pretty high on Pitt, but I haven’t been able to track him down and talk to him myself. Truthfully, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pitt added Coleman to the class of Conwell and Williams and was content to sign those three. At the same time, they won’t be turning down Rippy, Porchia, or Holtz (or any of the others on the offer sheet).
Cornerback
2013 seniors
K’Waun Williams*
2014 upperclassmen
Cullen Christian - redshirt senior
Lloyd Carrington - senior/redshirt junior
Lafayette Pitts - senior/redshirt junior
* - Williams did not redshirt as a true freshman in 2010; he could take a redshirt in the next two years and have junior eligibility in 2013.
Target number: 3
Commitments: William Parks
Top targets: Anthony Nixon
Pitt probably doesn’t need more than two cornerbacks in this class, but they seem to be in good shape with Banks, Coates, Mills, and Nixon, and if one of those three wanted to commit, I don’t see Pitt turning them down. Plus, I think Graham and the defensive coaches want to load up on corners for a variety of reasons.
Coates was high on Pitt prior to receiving an offer at the prospect camp in June, and while his interest is piqued in potential offers that could come in, I get the impression that Pitt could make a push for him.
Meanwhile, Banks has spoken highly of Pitt, and Mills picked up an offer from the Panthers in the past few weeks. Nixon has generally avoided doing recruiting interviews, but from what I’ve heard, Pitt’s in good shape with him. My best guess is that Pitt gets a commitment from one or two of the four - Coates, Banks, Mills, Nixon - to add to Geter and Parks and settles with that group. Even if Pitt misses on all three, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Panthers move on a corner midseason or postseason.
Safety
2013 seniors
Jason Hendricks
2014 upperclassmen
Ray Vinopal - redshirt senior
Brandon Ifill - redshirt senior
Jason Frimpong - senior/redshirt junior
Roderick Ryles - senior/redshirt junior
Steve Williams - senior/redshirt junior
Target number: 2
Top targets: Bam Bradley
That’s a pretty small target list, but barring an “out-of-nowhere” prospect like Steve Williams last year, Cox and Bradley seem to make up Pitt’s safety targets at this point.
Pitt has been in great shape with Bradley since Nick Grigsby - his older brother - signed with Pitt in February, and it’s probably just a matter of time until he pulls the trigger for the Panthers.
Cox isn’t as much of a “near-sure thing,” but I get a good impression from him in relation to how he feels about Pitt. And if the Panthers could land Cox, it would be a huge get. Cox is big-time, and if both he and Rippy committed to Pitt - big if’s, but not out of the question - Pitt will have made a rather big statement in recruiting the WPIAL.
The coaches will be on the lookout for additional safety prospects, but if Pitt only gets one of the two safeties - Cox and Bradley - it might not be forced to scramble. With his size, William Parks could project as a safety, which would make the continued pursuit of Marchez Coates, Brandon Banks, Jalen Mills, and Anthony Nixon logical.
Overall, I think Pitt will try to sign five defensive backs; most likely, that will break down as three cornerbacks and two safeties.
