Jaland Lowe is THE problem. Least efficient guard in the country?

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Which is why you can’t compare Capel early years to WVU or Louisville now. It’s not even apples and oranges, it might as well be like different sports altogether. Capel couldn’t build a roster like this early on becuase it wasn’t allowed, no NIL, no immediate transfers.

No excuses for what he’s doing now. Absolutely not. He misses the tournament this season fire him for all I care (even though it won’t happen), but Pitt in 2017-2019 is a challenge unlike any of these other programs right now.

Kelsey might very well be a fabulous coach - but he would have zero of those players right now if it was 2017. Let’s see him try to win with only high school kids and last years Louisville roster

There has always been transferring in basketball, though. In Dixon's last year here, he had Rafael Maia, Sterling Smith, Sheldon Jeter, Rozelle Nix, Alonzo Nelson-Odoba, and Jonathan Milligan. That's half the roster, with most of them being immediately-eligible grad transfers.

I agree it's not entirely apples to apples. That's fair. But should it have taken until year five to have a winning record? No way .

 

[whirlybird optio]

There has always been transferring in basketball, though. In Dixon's last year here, he had Rafael Maia, Sterling Smith, Sheldon Jeter, Rozelle Nix, Alonzo Nelson-Odoba, and Jonathan Milligan. That's half the roster, with most of them being immediately-eligible grad transfers.

I agree it's not entirely apples to apples. That's fair. But should it have taken until year five to have a winning record? No way .

Sure, of course.

But mid major grad transfers are very different than having millions to just pick and choose and buy immediately eligible players like Kelsey can do.

I think Capel, or any Pitt coach, should have gotten a giant pass for years 1 and 2 following Stallings. It’s around year 3 that things go completely off the rails, and then Covid, and then no excuse for the year with Gueye and Burton where we were terrible.

After that it’s 24 wins, 22 wins, and then this season. If we had a good year this year, really - everything would have seemed fine and on the upswing.

But this season is on the precipice. Who knows where it goes from here.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

There has always been transferring in basketball, though. In Dixon's last year here, he had Rafael Maia, Sterling Smith, Sheldon Jeter, Rozelle Nix, Alonzo Nelson-Odoba, and Jonathan Milligan. That's half the roster, with most of them being immediately-eligible grad transfers.

I agree it's not entirely apples to apples. That's fair. But should it have taken until year five to have a winning record? No way .

The comparisons aren't even close. When Capel took over, you'd have maybe 50 or so P5 level plug and play transfers. Maybe 50 is too many. It might be 20-25 because these are players who had to have redshirted for some reason, graduated, and are thought to now be P5 level. This past spring, there were 1800 guys in the portal, all with immediate eligibility. If we assume that only 25% of those players are P5 level, that's 450 players available compared to 20-50 when Capel took over.

There are 363 teams. If you estimate 3 guys per team running out of eligibility, the roster turnover per team are as follows:

3 guys graduate
5 guys enter the portal
5 guys return

These are 1 year AAU teams. Totally different. Some kids play for multiple AAU teams and I can't wait for someone to sue and gain eligibility to play for 2 teams at once. Like let's say a kid loves to Duquesne and wants to stay there but we really need a big so he dual-enrolls at Pitt and has some agreement to Pitt to only play certain bigger games.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

The comparisons aren't even close. When Capel took over, you'd have maybe 50 or so P5 level plug and play transfers. Maybe 50 is too many. It might be 20-25 because these are players who had to have redshirted for some reason, graduated, and are thought to now be P5 level. This past spring, there were 1800 guys in the portal, all with immediate eligibility. If we assume that only 25% of those players are P5 level, that's 450 players available compared to 20-50 when Capel took over.

There are 363 teams. If you estimate 3 guys per team running out of eligibility, the roster turnover per team are as follows:

3 guys graduate
5 guys enter the portal
5 guys return

These are 1 year AAU teams. Totally different. Some kids play for multiple AAU teams and I can't wait for someone to sue and gain eligibility to play for 2 teams at once. Like let's say a kid loves to Duquesne and wants to stay there but we really need a big so he dual-enrolls at Pitt and has some agreement to Pitt to only play certain bigger games.

I said it's not completely apples to apples. It also wasn't only 50 - that's a hilariously exaggerated underestimate. The team I just named:

Maia, Nix, Smith, and Nelson-Odoba did not sit out as I recall. So Pitt had four of them, but there were only 50 in the entire country? And that was three years before Capel got to Pitt.

 

[DruidTM]

Any team can be very good if they have the $$$$. Louisville went out and spent alot of $$$$ for players that are experienced. This is not about building a program anymore since most of the rosters are different every year. Sure we have been a little dirty throughout the years but other programs have been dirtier even before NIL. I've questioned JC's decisions etc from time to time but to fully blame him is ridiculous.
Can we all agree JC is a pretty good recruiter as well coach given the circumstances???? I say good but not outstanding. Like my grandmother always said you get what you pay for. H2P!!!

I can agree

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I said it's not completely apples to apples. It also wasn't only 50 - that's a hilariously exaggerated underestimate. The team I just named:

Maia, Nix, Smith, and Nelson-Odoba did not sit out as I recall. So Pitt had four of them, but there were only 50 in the entire country? And that was three years before Capel got to Pitt.

Yea, I'd say about 50. Dixon actually used grad transfers more than others during that time. Also, you could argue that the guys you listed weren't really P5 level but were only given chances here due to the number or HS recruiting strikeouts. Its like comparing apples to batteries.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Yea, I'd say about 50. Dixon actually used grad transfers more than others during that time. Also, you could argue that the guys you listed weren't really P5 level but were only given chances here due to the number or HS recruiting strikeouts. Its like comparing apples to batteries.

A below .500 record until year 5. No more than 6 conference wins until year 5.

Apples to dead batteries, maybe.

 

[whirlybird optio]

A below .500 record until year 5. No more than 6 conference wins until year 5.

Apples to dead batteries, maybe.

Right and what I’m saying is that if we were having a good season this year, no one would care about years 1-5. It would be 24 wins, 22 wins, 20+ wins an a NCAA tournament. Everyone (I hope) would agree that’s a program and coach clearly on the upswing and consistent progress after a rough start.

But this year has thrown all of that off. I’m extremely disappointed in this season. The past is the past. Maybe Jeff should have/would have been fired after the Gueye season, but he wasn’t. And then we won 2 NCAA games and had a very good team last year that underachieved early and got unlucky late. But it’s this season that is a huge problem, for sure.

 

[ebonylover40]

Louisville spent a boatload of $$$$ for this season ace. You're clueless about the inner workings and lack of $$$ here. We beat wvcc by 30pts which Dunn scored 24 pts then got injured. Losing Dunn was a huge setback for this team and he's not the same player. Your rants are circuitous and redundant.

Dude have you ever heard of any of the Ville's new players before this year? They were not picked in the top 5 of the ACC. They have a coach who got athletic players. Thae guard is the only new player people knew.

Your post about all that money spent has nothing to do with the way the Ville is playing. And its not like they destroyed Pitt. Pitt big problem is more coaching. Capel holds on to his TOs even when the opposing team goes on big runs. His insistence on having both Lowe and Ish dribble driving through double teams is in no way smart coaching. He coaches too much like a NBA coach. In that last game, Pitt had a 1 point lead in the 2nd half with less than 2 and a half mins 3 consecutive trips, with 3 TOs. Not one time when Pitt had the ball after a miss Clemson shot, did he call a TO to set up a play to build the lead. He allowed the team to run the same sets they ran the whole game all 3 times.

He carried all of those TOs into the overtume period. What good to decent coach would not call TO to run a set play they practice for that specific instance? Opposing coaches do it against Pitt every game. But Capel does nothing.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

A below .500 record until year 5. No more than 6 conference wins until year 5.

Apples to dead batteries, maybe.

1st year doesn't count. If anything, he overachieved going 3-15 and competitive in most. 2nd year, we were ahead of schedule. We were in Bracketology in January before falling off. Overall, not a good season but 0 wins to 3 to 6 ACC wins is something. Year 3 was Covid and those kids couldn't handle that, but yea that's on Capel ultimately. Year 4 was bad. So really, 2 bad years for me.

 

[caleco's]

Any team can be very good if they have the $$$$. Louisville went out and spent alot of $$$$ for players that are experienced. This is not about building a program anymore since most of the rosters are different every year. Sure we have been a little dirty throughout the years but other programs have been dirtier even before NIL. I've questioned JC's decisions etc from time to time but to fully blame him is ridiculous.
Can we all agree JC is a pretty good recruiter as well coach given the circumstances???? I say good but not outstanding. Like my grandmother always said you get what you pay for. H2P!!!

Mrs Capel your bias is showing