Louisville and Duke are all that matters really.

[Sean Miller Fan]

UNC is a guaranteed loss. Wake is probably a guaranteed win. At Syr, I'm just not as confident in.

We need to beat Louisville and Duke. Even if we lost the last 2 road games, those 2 wins along with @ ND, @ FSU, and Syr is probably enough especially since there will be 2 extra bids this year with SMU and Lou not going.

I'm not confident we can do it but its not an insurmountable task to beat Louisville and Duke at home.

 

[iMissTheOldDays]

Duke will have Jefferson back and Ingram / Allen might each get 20 against us , that's a guaranteed loss in my book right now as well

 

[whirlybird optio]

You think we get in at 9-9 in the ACC? I dunno, I think we might need 2 wins in the ACCT.

It will be close. We will probably have a top 40ish RPI with wins over Duke and UL. Losing back to back games against the Techs would be a real problem though.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Duke will have Jefferson back and Ingram / Allen might each get 20 against us , that's a guaranteed loss in my book right now as well

Duke is peaking..
That's a guaranteed loss with Allen and Kennard each going over 20, and plumlee with 15+ boards.

 

[Scruffy the Panther]

Since you stated UNC is a guaranteed loss, I'm more confident than ever we will win that game.

 

[Jeffburgh]

It isn't good.

Hard to see how they get the wins to get into the NCAAs at this point.

 

[Delpanther]

Since you stated UNC is a guaranteed loss, I'm more confident than ever we will win that game.

Good luck, Scrufster. Don't wager your paper route money.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

You think we get in at 9-9 in the ACC? I dunno, I think we might need 2 wins in the ACCT.

It will be close. We will probably have a top 40ish RPI with wins over Duke and UL. Losing back to back games against the Techs would be a real problem though.

Hypothetically, 19-11 with 5 Top 50 wins assuming Davidson falls out (Syr, ND, FSU, Lou, Duke) could do it, even maybe with a 3 game losing streak to end the season. That's a lot of Top 50 wins for a First Four kind of team.

To be really sure, we probably need to go 2-1 vs Syr, Lou, and Duke and 1-1 against VT/GT to get to 20-9.

9-9 doesnt sound great and we may need 1 in DC which wont be easy since it will be against a good team but if we beat Lou and Duke and didn't get in, we'd be the first of something not to: For example, we'd probably be the first .500 power conference team with 5 Top 50 wins to get snubbed. Chances are we'd get in.

 

[Spectacle]

The path to the NCAA tourney is beating either Louisville or Syracuse and Wake Forest and winning the last two road games. Not easy.

 

[ClarkLotTgate]

MUST win
@Vtech
@Gtech
Wake
Duke or Louisville

21-9

then it would reaaaaly help to win 2 in ACC, or at least beat someone decent on the 1st game.
22-10 is not a given to get in
23-10 is a bid

FWIW i don't think this will happen and we will be NIT bound.

 

[whirlybird optio]

MUST win
@Vtech
@Gtech
Wake
Duke or Louisville

21-9

then it would reaaaaly help to win 2 in ACC, or at least beat someone decent on the 1st game.
22-10 is not a given to get in
23-10 is a bid

FWIW i don't think this will happen and we will be NIT bound.

If we win 4 more games in the regular season, we are getting in. At that point we would be above .500 in the ACC, a good RPI, 2 more bids this year than usual (SMU/LVille) and we would pretty clearly be 6th in ACC pecking order, behind UNC-UVA-Miami-Duke-ND, especially considering we would have a lot of wins against the ACC bubble (ND-FSU-Cuse).

I think SMF is right in that 3 more wins...let's say we just win the home games and go 9-9, with a win in the ACCT, could we get in? I'll say this, teams with worse profiles have gotten in lately.

It's a very bad bubble this year. Very few good mid majors, and 2 more spots. If Pitt can beat Wake, win 2 of three on the road, and a home game, I think they are safely in. I don't think they will do it, but they still have a very viable path.

 

[Black Panther]

It's pretty simple...We lose to Wake....Were NIT or worse...

 

[Pittx9]

I think 21-10 is an absolute lock. Even just win one in the ACC tourney and it won't even be the slightest question. The problem is, we may struggle to get to that record.

 

[Black Panther]

But if we lose too many more the confidence level will be really low...Do you remember Paul Evans last year at Pitt? It started out pretty well.But down the stretch we lost a ton of last second heartbreakers and they tanked the rest of the way...Not saying this is going to happen, but this team needs some confidence right now...

 

[Pittx9]

But if we lose too many more the confidence level will be really low...Do you remember Paul Evans last year at Pitt? It started out pretty well.But down the stretch we lost a ton of last second heartbreakers and they tanked the rest of the way...Not saying this is going to happen but this team needs some confidence right now...

Agree we need some confidence. Unfortunately, losing that game last night almost means we have to beat UNC. Very tall task, but they have been struggling. That was a really, really ugly win against BC last night.

 

[Black Panther]

Agree we need some confidence. Unfortunately, losing that game last night almost means we have to beat UNC. Very tall task, but they have been struggling. That was a really, really ugly win against BC last night.

Beating UNC would be just what they need...But losing a game we should win at this point could be real bad.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think SMF is right in that 3 more wins...let's say we just win the home games and go 9-9, with a win in the ACCT, could we get in? I'll say this, teams with worse profiles have gotten in lately.

All seasons are not equal. People dont realize that. The bubble is bad this year. Case in point: if they picked the field tonight, Pitt is safely in. That tells you how bad it is.

The way I see it now is that 10-8 is virtually a lock. 9-9 with the right wins (ie 2-1 vs Syr, Lou, Duke) is virtually a lock. Basically, its better to beat Louisville and lose to GT than vice versa. Good wins count way more than bad losses.

Beat Wake.
2-1 vs Syr, Lou, Duke and we're in no matter what we do on the road.

That said, I dont think we will do this. I predict 7-11. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[ClarkLotTgate]

must beat a ranked team. home/away/neutral whatever, gotta beat SOMEONE for a "good win"

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

All seasons are not equal. People dont realize that. The bubble is bad this year.

When was the last time the bubble wasn't bad? Every year people say the bubble is bad, and the reason they say it is because every year the bubble is bad. It's been a long, long time since the bubble wasn't bad.

 

[NTOP]

MUST win
@Vtech
@Gtech
Wake
Duke or Louisville

21-9

then it would reaaaaly help to win 2 in ACC, or at least beat someone decent on the 1st game.
22-10 is not a given to get in
23-10 is a bid

FWIW i don't think this will happen and we will be NIT bound.

That's a guaranteed NCAA bid.

 

[maxxwell]

UNC is a guaranteed loss. .

I don't feel that UNC is a guaranteed loss given how we've played them the last two times and the stylistic matchup. I think the only way Pitt beats Louisville is if they tank due to the post-season ban or shoot it even worse than they did at the Yum Center. This team has more or less shown that the tough in-your-face defensive teams are too tall of an order for them. Those teams deny Pitt what they want to do and Pitt isn't capable of altering things effectively enough to win. Liked the chances against Duke better about 2 weeks ago but they're playing much better now. I think the two away games at the end of the regular season will be crucial.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

I think we can win 2 of 4 on the road and we should beat Wake at home. I think we need 1 win against either Duke or UL at home.

 

[NCanton Panther]

When was the last time the bubble wasn't bad? Every year people say the bubble is bad, and the reason they say it is because every year the bubble is bad. It's been a long, long time since the bubble wasn't bad.

Yep, first thing to do in this thread is throw out any comments about the bubble being bad or weak this year. I would like to see some hard evidence to back that statement up. Same thing was claimed last year. All I have to say to that is we're going to need the same daily bubble watch posts from UPitt89 again this year to keep track of our chances of making the tourney.

I think it is pretty hard to keep track of all conferences and the entire field of teams to assess our chances so I like to break it down to where we need to finish in the ACC and/or how many teams from the ACC may likely make the field. We're currently 9th in the ACC and I unfortunately don't see much chance for us to improve on that standing by the end of the year. Based on everyone's remaining schedules, we'll either remain 9th or be in a tie for 8th/9th with Syracuse. If we can beat Syracuse + 1 of either Lou or Duke, and hold serve on all the other expected wins, then we can leap frog Syracuse and end up 8th in the standings.

That last scenario is definitely no given to happen but should get us in the tourney if we pull it off. Anything less and we'll definitely be needing UPitt89's daily bubble watch postings.........

 

[pittman71]

Pitt can easily win just one of their remaining games looking at that schedule (don't think they would lose to Wake Forest at home)

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt can easily win just one of their remaining games looking at that schedule (don't think they would lose to Wake Forest at home)

Absolutely. They quit last year. Lets see if they do the same this year.

 

[Zaratoughda]

UNC is a guaranteed loss. Wake is probably a guaranteed win. At Syr, I'm just not as confident in.

We need to beat Louisville and Duke. Even if we lost the last 2 road games, those 2 wins along with @ ND, @ FSU, and Syr is probably enough especially since there will be 2 extra bids this year with SMU and Lou not going.

I'm not confident we can do it but its not an insurmountable task to beat Louisville and Duke at home.

Dixon will not beat Pitino... even at home.

He will probably beat Duke and then stand up and say 'We just beat the defending NCAA champions'... even though EVERYBODY has been beating them and they are not the same team (by any stretch of the imagination) that won last year.

With that... if he's lucky... he will get an NIT bid.