Lunardi latest leaps Pitt on leap day
- Thread starter Pitt666
- Start date
There’s a ton of moving parts with this, and the whole nation is not waiting to see whether Pitt loses or not.
Ultimately we have a lot of work to do between now and Selection Sunday, but somehow, we still have a chance.
Win out is the first and most important step, and then let’s see where the marbles fall for the ACC tourney. I think that means if you win 2 games in the tourney including a win over one of the top 4 seeds, then that might be enough to crawl your way back to Dayton.
Ultimately we have a lot of work to do between now and Selection Sunday, but somehow, we still have a chance.
Win out is the first and most important step, and then let’s see where the marbles fall for the ACC tourney. I think that means if you win 2 games in the tourney including a win over one of the top 4 seeds, then that might be enough to crawl your way back to Dayton.
Pitt's problem is there's zero opportunity for another Q1 win unless they advance at least a round in the ACCT. And, honestly fir the better, not sure the committee weighs conference tourney wins (unless you win the whole thing) like regular season wins.
Yeah, and NC State losing the other day all but nullifies the chances of that game moving to a quad one win. I think it's possible they get in based on road record merit if they win the next four... but the other side of that is they probably aren't going to win the next four.
Pitt is more likely to win the next four rather than lose one. It’s how their metrics have been all year. NCST is still 78 and Cuse is all creeping up to 81. Pitt’s last two losses were games where they were 7 plus point underdogs. In the last 5 games in which they have been favored, they are 5-0 ATS. Metrics also matter. Lunardi moved us up due to metrics. BPI rose 3 after Clemson loss. If they can handily take care of business in the next four, the metrics get them to Dayton. If they lost one of the next four, they don’t belong, but I don’t get the talk of they probably aren’t going to win the next four.
It's simple math. Even if you have an 80% chance of winning each of the next four, that gives you a statistical probability of 40.96% of winning all four. If the odds of the individual games are 50% (which BC basically is), 60%, 70%, and 60% then the odds of winning four straight are 12.6%. Again, simple math, and it's especially relevant in a sport like basketball, where anybody can beat anybody. If Vegas offered you a bet that Pitt wins its next four games, you would see the payout stacked heavily in favor of it not happening.
Yes, we definitely have to win out first. That's a start. Then we have to win at least 2 ACCT games to be back on the bubble or to feel like we might be in. It's not going to be easy.
First, BC won't be a pushover. So the season starts Saturday.
I hate myself for checking this, but he bumped us down below JMU in his latest update 2 hours ago: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GHhtTfCWAAAZQLt?format=png&name=900x900
Why? Because now a bunch of people are going to talk about it and will be looking to see where their team moves in a couple hours.
Not because anything happened that improved JMU's case.
Not that JMU has a shred of a chance to get in as an at-large anyway.
Why? Because now a bunch of people are going to talk about it and will be looking to see where their team moves in a couple hours.
Not because anything happened that improved JMU's case.
Not that JMU has a shred of a chance to get in as an at-large anyway.
