March 4 - (Possible Last) Bubble Report and Viewing Guide

[UPitt '89]

If Pitt loses tonight, this will be the final Bubble Report of the season. The fate of the Bubble Report rests in your hands, Panthers.

Let's review last night's bubble action.....

Big Winners (Cheerleader Edition)

Iowa
- The Hawkeyes are in. Their win at Indiana pushed their chances up to 97% from 87%, making them a lock. One of the hottest teams in the country the past two weeks.

NC State
- The Wolfpack got a big road victory at Clemson to improve their chances from 69% to 85%.

Ole Miss
- The Rebels got a very important road win at Alabama, increasing their NCAA chances from 62% to 80%.

Dayton
- The Flyers improved their chances from 73% to 84% with the home win over Rhode Island.


Biggest Loser

Indiana
- The Hoosiers' home loss was very crippling. Three weeks ago, they were a virtual lock. With this loss, their chances fell from 66% to 41%.

Other Losers

Rhode Island
- Barring an A10 Tournament title, they are now officially dead. Chances fell from 21% to 15%.

Texas A&M
- Their loss at Florida was a missed opportunity, but it wasn't as fatal as it seemed at first blush. Their chances fell from 69% to 64%.

Georgia
- They had a 9-point lead over undefeated Kentucky with 6 minutes left. They lost by 8. A 17-point swing in 6 minutes. They would've been a lock with a win, maybe even a 6 or 7 seed..... but instead, their chances fell from 74% to 72%.


Tonight's Bubble Action

Miami (RPI 71, Chances 14%) at
Pitt (RPI 49, Chances 31%)
ESPN3/ThisTV, 8pm
- Many are calling this a "play-in" game. It is not. It is a "play-out" game. The loser is out. The winner lives until the weekend. If Pitt loses this game, the Bubble Report goes away until next year.

Tennessee at
LSU (RPI 46, Chances 77%)
SECN, 7pm
- The Tigers cannot afford to lose at home to a very bad Tennessee team. Go Vols!

Purdue (RPI 59, Chances 48%) at
Michigan St (RPI 31, Chances 90%)
BTN, 8pm
- Even though the Spartans are at 90%, a loss in their final two games (both at home) and the first game in the B1G Tourney would put them in precarious position. Still, they're probably in. Purdue, on the other hand, is a team that Pitt can bypass. Go Spartans!

TCU at
Oklahoma St (RPI 43, Chances 70%)
ESPNU, 9pm
- If the Cowboys were to lose at home to TCU, they would end their B12 regular season at 17-12/8-10, and that's not a good place to be. Go Horned Frogs!

Cincinnati (RPI 49, Chances 85%) at
Tulsa (formerly on bubble, but solidly in now)
CBSSN, 9pm
- The Bearcats are probably still in with a loss, but it's not a sure thing just yet. Go Golden Hurricane!

USC at
UCLA (RPI 52, Chances 39%)
ESPN2, 9pm
- If the Bruins lose this game, they are toast. USC is very bad. Go Trojans!

Colorado St (RPI 26, Chances 48%) at
Nevada
No TV, 10pm
- You'd think with an RPI of 26 that the Rams would be solidly in. But their lack of quality wins is hurting them. Chances are, only two of SDSU/BSU/CSU make the dance. The Rams could be the odd one out. Go Wolfpack!

Nebraska at
Illinois (RPI 61, Chances 23%)
BTN, 10pm
- Illinois is on life support. A loss ends their hopes. Go Huskers!

Boise State (RPI 29, Chances 72%) at
San Jose State
No TV, 10:15pm
- San Jose State may be the worst team in Division 1. They are 2-26 and their RPI is 335. Boise State beat them 86-36 at home a month ago. They haven't won or scored more than 62 points since December 9th. If Boise State were to lose this game, the loss would be so horrible that they should eliminate their basketball program. So..... Go Spartans!









This post was edited on 3/4 9:43 AM by UPitt '89

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt's problem is that the teams on the good side of the bubble are pretty safe at this point (70-80%). Those teams just have to avoid epic collapses, which is what I've been saying for a few weeks. This bubble is really strong. You have a bunch of teams with 70-80% chances and the teams on the bad side are at like 20%-30%. Things would be much more encouraging if most of the teams on the good side were in the 50-60% range.

We need a 4 game winning streak. Anything less than that, we will need monumental collapses by several of these teams (like 3 bad losses in a row).

 

[UPitt '89]

Originally posted by Sean Miller Fan:
Pitt's problem is that the teams on the good side of the bubble are pretty safe at this point (70-80%). Those teams just have to avoid epic collapses, which is what I've been saying for a few weeks. This bubble is really strong. You have a bunch of teams with 70-80% chances and the teams on the bad side are at like 20%-30%. Things would be much more encouraging if most of the teams on the good side were in the 50-60% range.

We need a 4 game winning streak. Anything less than that, we will need monumental collapses by several of these teams (like 3 bad losses in a row).

One such team... Indiana.... 82% to 41% in one week.
Stanford has fallen from 50% to 18% in one week.
Oklahoma State has fallen from 98% to 70% in 2 weeks.
Illinois... from 50% to 23% in 2 weeks.
Texas... from 80% to 58% in 2 weeks.


On the other side...

Oregon... from 21% to 89% in 2 weeks.
BYU.... from 42% to 85% in 2 weeks
St. John's... From 30% to 90% in 2 weeks.

Pitt... from 8% to 31% in 3 weeks.

Things move quickly... especially with lots of bubble teams playing each other this final week.

With a win tonight... Pitt moves into the mid 40% range. Win on Saturday at FSU, and we're in the 50-60% range.

 

[nycpanther98]

Another reason to hope for a Pitt win: The Bubble Report!

 

[33pitt99]

Originally posted by nycpanther98:
Another reason to hope for a Pitt win: The Bubble Report!

Agree, definitely want these to continue for at least another week. Also sincerely hope we don't need them next year - would be nice to be a lock by early February or so!

Thanks again for all of your work on this, UPitt!

 

[UPitt '89]

The last four in, in order, are:

Texas A&M
Temple
Texas
Purdue

The first six out, in order, are:

Colorado State
Indiana
UCLA
Pitt
Illinois
Connecticut


It would be very beneficial if Purdue, CSU, Illinois, and UCLA all lose today.

 

[noelr]

what a meltdown by baylor the other night; texas would be out; i think they have KSU at home.

 

[noelr]

anyone know any good luck charms for tonight?

 

[Taft's Baby Hook]

Whiskey.

 

[whirlybird optio]

The question for Pitt is that will being a 20 win ACC team with 10 league wins and a top 45 or so RPI, is that enough? NC St was kind of a shock pick last season, and maybe they go ACC again this season.

Also, these %'s aren't real, they aren't accurate, they are a guess. For all we know, Pitt has a 5% chance, or a 50% chance, impossible to tell. I do think some teams that appear safe at this point are not (Xavier, A&M, LSU, Cincy, Temple), and that if Pitt wins their next 3 they will be in quite a few mock brackets.

 

[pittpsu]

1st, thanks for doing this for us, 2nd LSU went down *

*

 

[noelr]

thanks upitt 89

boy did we embarrass ourselves down the stretch