Monmouth
- Thread starter JD1976
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Mid-majors dont have to do as much and they shouldn't have to. Major colleges wont play them home and home and they mostly serve their role as rent-a-win RPI gaming for for the high majors. In return, they are allotted a couple bids when they dont win their tournament. Putting their resumes side by side, you would have to be on crack to think Monmouth or Wichita would go in over Pitt or Syr or Cincy but they get credit for never being given a chance.
Monmouth = 100% guaranteed lock
Wichita = 100% guaranteed lock
And now Valpo is right there and could get an at-large.
If SMC doesnt win the WCC, there goes another bid.
Pitt has to win Wednesday. If we lose, its almost certain we will be in NIT
Monmouth = 100% guaranteed lock
Wichita = 100% guaranteed lock
And now Valpo is right there and could get an at-large.
If SMC doesnt win the WCC, there goes another bid.
Pitt has to win Wednesday. If we lose, its almost certain we will be in NIT
thats bad for Pitt. The Horizon may have just become a 2 bid league.
not good.
No offense, but that is crazy, and just 100% wrong. Jerry Palm, who is as good at this as anyone, doesn't have Wichita in the field, and probably won't have Monmouth. In his words, Valpo isn't even close.
There is a ZERO percent chance Valpo makes it. If they make it, Princeton should make it. Same RPI, better SOS/KenPom. Valpo won't even be a 1 seed in the NIT, cmon. You can't lose in the Horizon SEMIS and make it.
100% guaranteed lock is just wrong. If they are a 100% guaranteed lock, Pitt would have to be a 150% guaranteed lock...I don't think Pitt losing to Cuse will drop them more than losing to Iona, or losing to N Iowa, and Pitt was ahead of those teams in the first place.
I'd be much more worried if I were Pitt about teams like Michigan/Florida/GW making runs than I would about mid majors. Pitt was ahead of those mid majors, and they won't get passed because those mid majors already lost. Pitt could get passed by AAC or A-10 teams that make runs.
I think Pitt and Cuse are probably both in at this point regardless, more likely Uconn/Cincy game a "play out" game, only because I don't think AAC will get 4 teams.
Pitt, having beaten Cuse twice, probably sliiiighly more likely to make field with a loss, but close.
Pitt's chances of making the tournament better NEARLY everywhere than projected on this board. Pitt still the top 9 seed on bracket matrix..very hard to fall 10 spots or so when most of those teams will be losing early as well.
I'm not saying lose and everything is fine, or if we lose I won't get on a soapbox and complain, but I think we are in regardless.
Literally a zero (ok, maybe one) percent chance Valpo gets in. Even the ESPN guys following the game, who should be Horizon proponents, said no chance.
Wichita St, Monmouth...maybe one of those two teams. Maybe. Valpo not close. More likely zero of these three than 2.
I also can't see a WCC team getting in without auto-bid, SDSU also seems very unlikely.
It's actually not as simple to say "Pitt needs a win to make the field", I don't necessarily agree with that. I disagree with the narrative that this is a "play out" game.
Again, Pitt fans have every right to be pessimistic about their chances, but almost everyone thinks more highly of our chances than this board.
I think there are some very, very good mid-majors, year in and year out. A lot of them have really good overall resumes deserving of an at-large bid. HOWEVER, why do mid-majors get so much credit for beating average (or at times below average power conference teams)?
I just heard Vitale and Lunardi go on and on about a Monmouth's wins against UCLA and ND. Good wins, no doubt. But they went on and on like they beat UNC and Sparty. By the way, UCLA (who stinks) was in OT and ND was at a neutral site.
Valp, again, good team. Best non-conference win was Oregon State. Nice win, sure. But it's Oregon State, not Kansas. Nice win, not much more.
Anyway, my point is that I certainly think there are mid-majors deserving on at-large bids. But the hype for average non-conference wins is a little much. By the way, Seth Greenberg and Jay Williams basically took the opposite opinion of Lunardi and Vitale FWIW.
I just heard Vitale and Lunardi go on and on about a Monmouth's wins against UCLA and ND. Good wins, no doubt. But they went on and on like they beat UNC and Sparty. By the way, UCLA (who stinks) was in OT and ND was at a neutral site.
Valp, again, good team. Best non-conference win was Oregon State. Nice win, sure. But it's Oregon State, not Kansas. Nice win, not much more.
Anyway, my point is that I certainly think there are mid-majors deserving on at-large bids. But the hype for average non-conference wins is a little much. By the way, Seth Greenberg and Jay Williams basically took the opposite opinion of Lunardi and Vitale FWIW.
I'm not sure what there is to disagree with.
We win and we are in. (If for no other reason, we'll clearly be in before Syracuse)
Lose, and we'll sweat it out.
No at large team has ever gotten in with as many sub 200 losses as Monmouth. Monmouth's 3rd and 4th best wins of the season were UCLA and Georgetown, neither of which even went .500.
That being said, I actually think they have a better shot than Wichita, who have exactly 1 top 75 win all season. Pitt, as an example, has 7. 7 wins to 1. It's not close.
Its a soft year for the bubble, and an even softer year for mid majors. Almost any other year Pitt right now would be in a play in game, not a 9 seed, but with the 2 extra bids, and the lack of good mid majors, we got a little lucky even being in this spot.
Well get used to the "let the little guy in" line from both Vitale and Lunardi. Vitale is like a broken record this time of year.
I guess its semantics. I don't think winner is in, loser is out. I mean, if Pitt beats Cuse, and Michigan/Florida/Oregon St/GW all make runs, maybe we still miss with a win.
I think its more likely both Pitt and Cuse make the field than one of them, I'll put it that way.
But you know me, I feel we need to win every game, the next one more than others.
And they will both be upset when the "little guy" goes to the NIT. It...happens...every..year. And this year, the mid majors aren't even that good.
That's what Lunardi is saying, anyway. Vitale just quoted him 30 seconds ago.
Good info and I agree about Wichita too. The only reasons I can think of them getting consideration are because (1) they finished fairly strong; and (2) I think (not sure) they were without a key player or two for a few games early. Again, I don't think they should be in at all but maybe that's the thought...oh and maybe they are getting extra credit for success over the past few years??
Yep Vitale and Bilas will get into it as usual when the little guy gets kicked to the NIT.
They did not have Van Vleet in the early part of the season, but the problem is their worst losses all came after he came back. They basically dominated a bad league, and had one good win out of conference and many losses. That is usually an NIT profile.
I think it is more the "Wichita St" name getting them cred right now.
I think much more highly of Jerry Palm, and not just saying that b/c he thinks more of us than Lunardi does.
I did enjoy however Seth Greenberg yelling at Lunardi and saying you can't compare Pitt and Cuse to these midmajors, that the ACC teams are just ahead of those teams. I like that, esp from the former Pitt AC.
Monmouth is an interesting case, and they certainly played the type of OOC schedule they needed to to have a shot at an at large bid. It's not their fault that UCLA and Georgetown had subpar years. You could also argue that those wins were months ago and lately they've been beaten twice by the only other decent team in their conference, including a recent home blowout.
I've changed my mind about Wichita St. Their record is almost devoid of good wins. At least Northern Iowa beat North Carolina and Iowa St (and Wichita St twice). They were a deserving winner, and maybe even a more dangerous team than WSU in the upcoming tournament.
I think in the end only 1 out of Monmouth or Wichita St gets in, probably Wichita St based on the committee giving them a pass on the games Van Fleet missed.
Disagree with Whirlybird on St Mary's. I think tonight's win is going to be enough to get them in, especially if they lose in the finals to a Gonzaga team they've already beaten twice.
I've changed my mind about Wichita St. Their record is almost devoid of good wins. At least Northern Iowa beat North Carolina and Iowa St (and Wichita St twice). They were a deserving winner, and maybe even a more dangerous team than WSU in the upcoming tournament.
I think in the end only 1 out of Monmouth or Wichita St gets in, probably Wichita St based on the committee giving them a pass on the games Van Fleet missed.
Disagree with Whirlybird on St Mary's. I think tonight's win is going to be enough to get them in, especially if they lose in the finals to a Gonzaga team they've already beaten twice.
Monmouth should eliminated on the basis of how stupid their celebrations are.
Only if they ban the camera and tv coordinators who put them on the screen after EVERY basket.
I don't really buy that argument for Monmouth, I mean, if UCLA and GTown were good they'd have probably beaten Monmouth, and then Monmouth would have no chance. They benefit by getting the name teams in down years. Those are also Monmouth's 3rd and 4th best wins. I would imagine most bubble teams have more quality wins, and certainly fewer bad losses.
St Mary's is an interesting resume. Zero good wins, if we define good as top 50. Two losses to Pepperdine, and then a bunch of wins over decent teams. I think their profile is similar to Wichita, although they play in a better league. I think if I were a St. Mary's fan, I'm rooting for Gonzaga, a loss to BYU tougher to take (even thought BYU not much worse, I think the perception of Zaga would help not crush St Mary if they lost to them).
Do people not get what I am saying? There is no official criteria for the Selection Committee. Historically, mid-majors have gotten in with less than impressive resumes. Its because they dont have the same opportunity.
Yes, Pitt's resume is far better than Wichita and Monmouth but there is no way, they are taking Pitt over those teams. Monmouth and Wichita are locks. Valpo probably not. St. Mary's is probably in regardless. Little Rock, I'm not sure.
Yes, Pitt's resume is far better than Wichita and Monmouth but there is no way, they are taking Pitt over those teams. Monmouth and Wichita are locks. Valpo probably not. St. Mary's is probably in regardless. Little Rock, I'm not sure.
I watched the Monmouth vs Iona game last night Good game by the way! Bilas said he thinks Monmouth is 100% in so not sure what that means for PITT. He also thought Wichita would most likely get in.
I'm not for the "little guys" I'm for the teams who " earned" the trip to the Ncaa tourney.
Earning stuff still means something in sports and this country!
There's enough "unearned" give aways leave sports alone!
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Monmouth got to play 5-6 games against the big boys. That's it. Do you think they would have liked to play 9 home games against ACC teams like Pitt? Pitt got 21 chances. Monmouth got 25% of that. Because of that, they dont have to do as much. I am SURE Monmouth is a lock.
But the camera shots of their bench sells ad time. All about the Benjamins. Plus, if Vitale likes it, it MUST be wrong.
Valpo has a 1% chance
Little rock a .01%
I just think it's funny that you have teams as locks that Palm doesn't even have in the field. But, you probably know better.
Again, the most dangerous teams to take pitt's bid are michigan, Florida, Georgia, Ohio st. Not these mid majors who were already seeded below Pitt, and have already lost.
I don't get the obsession with top 50 wins. Maybe we should use top 75 wins, where Pitt has 7, and teams like Wichita have one, or Monmouth 2.
The conventional wisdom, nearly everywhere except this board, is that both ACC teams, more likely Pitt, would sneak in with a loss. I'm not saying it's gonna happen, I'm just saying Pitts chances are markedly better than most in here will admit, in large part because most on here only watch pitt, and we choked last 2 games.
You literally NEVER know what a particular Selection Committee is thinking. Some years, there seems to be a big school bias and some years they fall all over themselves putting in mid-majors.
I haven't seen what a game with Cuse would do to our RPI, win or lose, but my gut tells me a 52 RPI team with 6 losses in its last 9 games is not going dancing, win or lose.
Monmouth is OUT.
Valpo is PROBABLY out.
Wichita State is PROBABLY in.
St. Mary's is DEFINITELY in, win or lose tonight.
Gonzaga is in with a win (obviously, auto-bid)... and 50/50 with a loss.
Pitt is in with a win.... and Dayton AT-BEST with a loss.
Valpo is PROBABLY out.
Wichita State is PROBABLY in.
St. Mary's is DEFINITELY in, win or lose tonight.
Gonzaga is in with a win (obviously, auto-bid)... and 50/50 with a loss.
Pitt is in with a win.... and Dayton AT-BEST with a loss.
What ESPN thinks of Pitt:
Pittsburgh [20-10 (9-9), RPI: 52, SOS: 43] On Feb. 28, Pittsburgh got its best win of the season, both in RPI terms and in terms of on-court execution, in a 76-62 victory over Duke. Finally, the Panthers seemed to be firming up their bid. Not so much. Three days later, they fell at Virginia Tech, 65-61; three days after that, they lost at Georgia Tech. It's hard to be too harsh about road losses to decent (if NIT-bound) teams in conference play. Unfortunately, it is just hard to look at Pitt's resume and feel remotely certain the committee will be impressed. It's all very meh. Wednesday's ACC tournament opener versus Syracuse could very well tip the balance of this delicate resume in either direction before Sunday.
Pittsburgh [20-10 (9-9), RPI: 52, SOS: 43] On Feb. 28, Pittsburgh got its best win of the season, both in RPI terms and in terms of on-court execution, in a 76-62 victory over Duke. Finally, the Panthers seemed to be firming up their bid. Not so much. Three days later, they fell at Virginia Tech, 65-61; three days after that, they lost at Georgia Tech. It's hard to be too harsh about road losses to decent (if NIT-bound) teams in conference play. Unfortunately, it is just hard to look at Pitt's resume and feel remotely certain the committee will be impressed. It's all very meh. Wednesday's ACC tournament opener versus Syracuse could very well tip the balance of this delicate resume in either direction before Sunday.
"Meh" would be a good NFL Films title for the 2015-16 Pitt highlight film. Not bad, not great, just "meh"
That is perhaps the best quote/write-up as a summary of Pitt's season as I've read to date. Agree that losing to both of the Techs was unfortunate, but neither was that big a surprise, given that both VT and GT had been playing pretty well coming into both games, and VT had a sort of revenge factor going, given the way we beat them at the Pete at the end of January. I think VT could end up with a bid to the NCAAT if they should happen to make it to the ACCT finals. But yeah, the resume and body of work for our Panther 5 is pretty meh. But then again, there are a plethora of meh teams in the NCAA this year. I'm sure that Vegas is kind of sweating it out given all of the uncertainty, although maybe it's better for them to have the money spread out on dozens of teams, as opposed to a handful or fewer . . . even though they $hit the bed against VT in their last regular season game, I am thinking that the U will make a long run in the NCAA's this year. Wouldn't surprise me if they made the FF . . .
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