My final guess at the bracket

[whirlybird optio]

I'm going to assume wins today by VCU, Michigan St, UConn, and Kentucky.

1's: Kansas, UNC, Michigan St, Oregon

2's: Viriginia, Villanova, WVU, Oklahoma

3's: Kentucky, Utah, Xavier, Miami

4's: Purdue, Maryland, Indiana, Arizona

5's: Duke, Texas AM, Cal, Seton Hall

6's: Iowa St, Texas, ND, Baylor

7's: Colorado, Dayton, Iowa, VCU

8's: Providence, ST Joes, Wisconsin, USC

9's: Texas Tech, Pitt, Uconn, Gonzaga

10's: Cincy, Butler, Wichita, Oregon St

11's: St Bonaventure, South Dakota St, Michigan, Monmouth, South Carolina, Syracuse

12's: Yale, Little Rock, Northern Iowa, Stony Brook

13's: Chattanooga, Fresno, Stephen Austin, Hawaii

14's: UNC Wilmington, MTSU, Buffalo, Iona

15:s Green Bay, Weber St, Asheville, NMSU

16's: Hampton, FGSU, Austin Peay, Southern, FDU, Holy Cross


Comments: Bracket is pretty easy to pick say the first 36-38 teams. After that, the last 4-5 teams are just so close. I feel like Michigan will get in with the quality of their wins in the top 25, I think Monmouth gets the edge over Valpo/St Mary's because of their strong OOC, I have South Carolina in the field only because, probably incorrectly, I just can't see them taking only 2 SEC teams, and then I have Cuse, only because of Boeheim factor, and 3 wins OOC against tourney teams, I think that's enough.

My first 4 out would be: San Diego St, Vanderbilt, Valpo, St Marys

Next 4 out: George Washington, Georgia, Temple, Akron


I just don't see Temple in this field. Losing record vs the top 200. No quality wins OOC. St Mary's gave the committee an easy excuse to leave them out due to their putrid OOC schedule.

San Diego St is a really close call. However, only 9 games played vs top 100, so much of their schedule was against 200+. They do have a good OOC win over Cal, but after that, not much. Very similar profile to Wichita, but Wichita played 2 more games against the top 100, has the Van Fleet factor, that given them the edge.

If I were picking the field, I'd probably have SDSU over South Carolina. But this is what I think the committee will do.

If Memphis wins, drop Syracuse.

Vanderbilt vs South Carolina is an interesting case. I think Vandy passes the eye test better, but South Carolina much better record vs top 200, wins over Hofstra and Tulsa aren't great, but better than anything Vandy did OOC, and they have a head to head win. That's why I gave South Carolina the edge, but Vandy does have wins over Kentucky AND A&M. Very close, I do think one will get in.

HAIL TO PITT

 

[UPitt '89]

Not bad.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Make sure you update your bracket. This is for Pantherlair bragging rights. I updated mine through the the end of the early games. I hope UConn wins because Memphis would be a tough team to seed and that pushes us a little closer to Dayton.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Final update:

Swap VCU and St Joes, so St Joes a 7, VCU an 8.

Swap UConn and USC, Uconn an 8, USC a 9.

After thinking about it, I'm going to drop Monmouth from the bracket, I just think another West Coast teams gets in, I think San Diego St.

I'm also reluctantly putting Temple into the bracket, as I'm starting to think/hope, they only give the SEC 2 teams.

So, I'll say Michigan-SDSU-Temple-Cuse as my Dayton teams.

First 4 out: South Carolina, Monmouth, Vandy, St Marys

Pitt would play Wisconsin in my bracket, with the winner drawing Oregon.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Final update:

Swap VCU and St Joes, so St Joes a 7, VCU an 8.

Swap UConn and USC, Uconn an 8, USC a 9.

After thinking about it, I'm going to drop Monmouth from the bracket, I just think another West Coast teams gets in, I think San Diego St.

I'm also reluctantly putting Temple into the bracket, as I'm starting to think/hope, they only give the SEC 2 teams.

So, I'll say Michigan-SDSU-Temple-Cuse as my Dayton teams.

First 4 out: South Carolina, Monmouth, Vandy, St Marys

Pitt would play Wisconsin in my bracket, with the winner drawing Oregon.

Also, no one is talking about them, but George Washington has OOC wins over Virginia and Seton Hall, I know they were both at home, but that's as good as any bubble team can throw out there. If Monmouth is banking on wins over ND/USC, GW's wins are just better. Maybe they are the shock team no one sees coming??