National Championship Contenders

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Just figured this would generate some interesting discussion. Bud Elliot named 18 teams the other day who he said could have a reasonable expectation to win a national championship in the current college football climate. That doesn't mean they're competing for one this year or even that they've been all that close in the last decade or two. Just teams that, given the resources they have/where they recruit, basically COULD win one.

ACC: Clemson, FSU, Miami (he was iffy on Miami)
BIG: Ohio State, USC, Michigan, Penn State
SEC: Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M
PAC: Oregon
Other: Notre Dame
Big 12: None

Disagree with any of these? Would you add anybody?

I think they're fairly spot on, while acknowledging that teams like Penn State, Miami, Oregon, and Notre Dame would be more toward the bottom of those 18.

And yes - you'll have a TCU, Michigan State, Washington, Cincinnati, etc. sneak into the playoff every once in a while. But none of them were a legit threat to actually win it all.

 

[ratking17]

I agree these schools have tremendous advantages...but I disagree that only 18 could win. If you are playing in a power 5 conference with access to the playoff, you have a chance. Again, the teams listed do have huge advantages, but under the right circumstances, I think even pitt could win it.

Would 2021 pitt have made a 12 team playoff? If so, then even pitt could have won a national title with the right breaks.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I agree these schools have tremendous advantages...but I disagree that only 18 could win. If you are playing in a power 5 conference with access to the playoff, you have a chance. Again, the teams listed do have huge advantages, but under the right circumstances, I think even pitt could win it.

Would 2021 pitt have made a 12 team playoff? If so, then even pitt could have won a national title with the right breaks.

I don't know; what's the last team not on this list that was even close? Other than TCU, who absolutely wasn't even on the same planet as Georgia, this past year, you have to go all the way back to 2001 (Nebraska) to find a team not on this list that played for a national championship.

2007 West Virginia might have been the last team not on this list with a legitimate shot at winning it all, but so much has changed since then.

I do think things can, at least theoretically, change in the future, but this was kind of the "right now" list. And I definitely don't see it getting much easier for non-southern, non P2 teams.

 

[WillyDavis33]

USC is not in the b1g. I have my doubts when the teams get off the plane in crappy valley, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, etc that they will say "NFW"!

 

[FireballZ]

I don't know; what's the last team not on this list that was even close? Other than TCU, who absolutely wasn't even on the same planet as Georgia, this past year, you have to go all the way back to 2001 (Nebraska) to find a team not on this list that played for a national championship.

2007 West Virginia might have been the last team not on this list with a legitimate shot at winning it all, but so much has changed since then.

I do think things can, at least theoretically, change in the future, but this was kind of the "right now" list. And I definitely don't see it getting much easier for non-southern, non P2 teams.

2016 Washington Huskies, no?

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

2016 Washington Huskies, no?

They got pasted by Alabama in the semis in 2017 (similar to Michigan State in 2016 and Cincinnati in 2021). I'm only talking about the teams that made the championship games itself.

 

[Pitt2006]

Those are playoff contenders, but for NC it is Bama, Georgia, OSU and then maybe a fluke alternate. The recruiting gap is just too big for the foreseeable future. It is truly the SEC, OSU and the rest.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Those are playoff contenders, but for NC it is Bama, Georgia, OSU and then maybe a fluke alternate. The recruiting gap is just too big.

In very recent years, definitely. But LSU just won it in 2019, Clemson in 2018 and 2016, FSU in 2013, Auburn in 2010, etc. So I don't necessarily think it HAS to be one of those teams; it just has been recently.

I guess the way I interpret this is that things are cyclical, but within reason, and these are the 18 teams where, if one of them won it in 3 years (random example), no one would be too shocked.

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

Just figured this would generate some interesting discussion. Bud Elliot named 18 teams the other day who he said could have a reasonable expectation to win a national championship in the current college football climate. That doesn't mean they're competing for one this year or even that they've been all that close in the last decade or two. Just teams that, given the resources they have/where they recruit, basically COULD win one.

ACC: Clemson, FSU, Miami (he was iffy on Miami)
BIG: Ohio State, USC, Michigan, Penn State
SEC: Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M
PAC: Oregon
Other: Notre Dame
Big 12: None

Disagree with any of these? Would you add anybody?

I think they're fairly spot on, while acknowledging that teams like Penn State, Miami, Oregon, and Notre Dame would be more toward the bottom of those 18.

And yes - you'll have a TCU, Michigan State, Washington, Cincinnati, etc. sneak into the playoff every once in a while. But none of them were a legit threat to actually win it all.

Hard to argue with this list. But A&M has been the sleeping giant forever. I don't think they are ever waking up. And Texas hasn't figured it out for over a decade, their record is worse than ours. Not sure the light bulb ever goes on there anytime soon. Same with Miami.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Hard to argue with this list. But A&M has been the sleeping giant forever. I don't think they are ever waking up. And Texas hasn't figured it out for over a decade, their record is worse than ours. Not sure the light bulb ever goes on there anytime soon. Same with Miami.

Yeah, and same with Penn State. But a team like Georgia, for example, is fairly recent to the party (I mean at the level they're at now anyway). It wasn't all that long ago when it was a team like Florida on top, etc. So things are going to change a little over the years. But what Alabama has been able to for over a dozen years now has been pretty unbelievable.

 

[Burgh15]

Those are playoff contenders, but for NC it is Bama, Georgia, OSU and then maybe a fluke alternate. The recruiting gap is just too big for the foreseeable future. It is truly the SEC, OSU and the rest.

I agree, they're playoff contenders. Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State are definitely there. I'd put LSU in this group as well. If Riley gets USC going, they could possibly join this group.

 

[cashisking884]

I made this point yesterday.

There’s a limited pool of teams capable of winning a national title. And I would argue teams like USC, Oregon, ND, PSU, and Michigan need a generational type QB talent to win a NC.

Of that pool, 3 to 4 a year have a chance in any given year.

If you aren’t in that initial pool, you have absolutely no chance. You can pull an upset, but as the playoffs expand, more teams from the initial pool are going to make up the playoffs. Which means you need too many miracles.

A couple of people argued with me I think last week against this point, and argued that Michigan State was an example of a legit national title contender.

But one thing that MSU insiders reported that brought down Dantonio was the Alabama playoff game. Dantonio couldn’t believe the ease in which Alabama handled MSU without breaking a sweat.

Which caused him to go after some of the bad character kids the major programs passed on, so he could get more high end talent. Since it was a struggle to win those recruiting battles at MSU.

And those character kids caused huge problems and helped lead to some of the unraveling.

People don’t appreciate how far away even 12-1 Big Ten teams are away from being legit national title contenders.

 

[Pitt2006]

I mean statistically the B1G and SEC will be fighting for more playoff slots=higher chance of champs. With NIL, the gaps get harder for those chasing, especially when the top teams can now plug and play holes with elite transfers. Also agree with the QB comments. A generational Burrow, Winston, can make up for a lot on a decent, but not quite there top 15 team. Ill add USC to the mix.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I made this point yesterday.

There’s a limited pool of teams capable of winning a national title. And I would argue teams like USC, Oregon, ND, PSU, and Michigan need a generational type QB talent to win a NC.

Of that pool, 3 to 4 a year have a chance in any given year.

If you aren’t in that initial pool, you have absolutely no chance. You can pool and upset, but as the playoffs expand, more teams from the initial pool are going to make up the playoffs. Which means you need too many miracles.

A couple of people argued with me I think last week against this point, and argued that Michigan State was an example of a legit national title contender.

But one thing that MSU insiders reported that brought down Dantonio was the Alabama playoff game. Dantonio couldn’t believe the ease in which Alabama handled MSU without breaking a sweat.

Which caused him to go after some of the bad character kids the major programs passed on, so he could get more high end talent. Since it was a struggle to win those recruiting battles at MSU.

And those character kids caused huge problems and helped lead to some of the unraveling.

People don’t appreciate how far away even 12-1 Big Ten teams are away from being legit national title contenders.

Yep. Teams like Georgia and Alabama might lay an egg once or twice during the course of the regular season, but catching them off guard in the national championship is a different ballgame.

Like Wisconsin was pretty close to a top 5 team in the nation for a dozen or so years, as was Pitt basketball. But neither team was truly much of a threat to win it all, because eventually pure talent rises to the top. There's a difference in having a good consistent program and just uber amounts of talent.

And I agree that some of those teams need the right QB to do so. But every now and then Auburn gets its Cam Newton and Florida State gets its Jameis Winston (I'm not saying those specific teams are the ones that would require a generational QB... though I think FSU might).

 

[cashisking884]

Yep. Teams like Georgia and Alabama might lay an egg once or twice during the course of the regular season, but catching them off guard in the national championship is a different ballgame.

Like Wisconsin was pretty close to a top 5 team in the nation for a dozen or so years, as was Pitt basketball. But neither team was truly much of a threat to win it all, because eventually pure talent rises to the top. There's a difference in having a good consistent program and just uber amounts of talent.

And I agree that some of those teams need the right QB to do so. But every now and then Auburn gets its Cam Newton and Florida State gets its Jameis Winston (I'm not saying those specific teams are the ones that would require a generational QB... though I think FSU might).

To me the elite teams that still require a generational QB are the ones that don’t have access to the DL and OL recruits that UGA and Bama can get.

Michigan’s OL in ‘21 was very good. It’s DEs were elite.

And UGA handled it all with such ease because the wave of “I can just barely spell my name” monsters they can throw at you on both sides of the ball is too much even for good northern lines. You have to be stacked and deep.

California doesn’t produce that. Oklahoma has struggled to get it. And the northern teams outside of OSU has struggled to get it.

 

[cashisking884]

Yeah, and same with Penn State. But a team like Georgia, for example, is fairly recent to the party (I mean at the level they're at now anyway). It wasn't all that long ago when it was a team like Florida on top, etc. So things are going to change a little over the years. But what Alabama has been able to for over a dozen years now has been pretty unbelievable.

But outside of ‘92, Bama went through a couple of decades of non-national title contending football.

Bud’s only point is these are the teams that aren’t eliminated from the national championship on signing day. They are capable of fielding a two deep that can contend with anybody.

Miami would be the one iffy because they don’t have the money for like a million assistants and the best coordinators in football. So their recruiting classes are probably somewhat mitigated.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

To me the elite teams that still require a generational QB are the ones that don’t have access to the DL and OL recruits that UGA and Bama can get.

Michigan’s OL in ‘21 was very good. It’s DEs were elite.

And UGA handled it all with such ease because the wave of “I can just barely spell my name” monsters they can throw at you on both sides of the ball is too much even for good northern lines. You have to be stacked and deep.

California doesn’t produce that. Oklahoma has struggled to get it. And the northern teams outside of OSU has struggled to get it.

I think receiver has really proven to be a position that separates teams. But, all in all, it's just overall talent and depth. The trenches may be the most important, but it's just everything. Notre Dame has had some elite o-lines and still not been close.

I don't know if these absolute super teams existed as much before the recent Alabama rise to prominence. I mean, definitely here and there (late 90's/early 2000's Miami being one example), but it seems like they're at a whole new level now. That 2018 Clemson defense (to go along with Lawrence, Etienne, etc.), that 2019 LSU team, the last two Georgia Teams, certain recent Alabama teams... it's just gotten wild.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

But outside of ‘92, Bama went through a couple of decades of non-national title contending football.

Bud’s only point is these are the teams that aren’t eliminated from the national championship on signing day. They are capable of fielding a two deep that can contend with anybody.

Miami would be the one iffy because they don’t have the money for like a million assistants and the best coordinators in football. So their recruiting classes are probably somewhat mitigated.

Yeah, I think we're making the same point. I'm only arguing that things are cyclical but within reason. Like in 3-5 years, if Auburn is a lot better than Alabama three years in a row, that definitely wouldn't shock me.

I'm just saying I think it's all the more reason to give Saban kudos for doing it for as long as he has. It seems like Clemson might have already fallen back down a rung or two, for instance.

 

[forbesfield]

Lots of teams have incredible talent among their starting 22. Very, very few teams have that same level of talent along their 2 deep. What sets Bama and Georgia apart is that they have that talent even in their 3 deep. Injuries happen, and if say PSU or Michigan loses an All-American in game 3, the drop-off for the rest of the way is steep. Not so at the very top. A lot of teams can contend if they can stay perfectly healthy, which they can't. They can't win, but they can "contend". Lose a few players, though, and even that is gone.

 

[TD_6082]

I think he's pretty much spot on.

I'm iffy on MIami, PSU, and Notre Dame.

I don't think any teams that aren't on the list have any legit shot at winning a national title.

 

[Burgh15]

Lots of teams have incredible talent among their starting 22. Very, very few teams have that same level of talent along their 2 deep. What sets Bama and Georgia apart is that they have that talent even in their 3 deep. Injuries happen, and if say PSU or Michigan loses an All-American in game 3, the drop-off for the rest of the way is steep. Not so at the very top. A lot of teams can contend if they can stay perfectly healthy, which they can't. They can't win, but they can "contend". Lose a few players, though, and even that is gone.

Depth and high-end talent. At their best, both teams dominate both sides of the trenches. Elite playmakers at wide receiver and in the secondary. Top pass rushers and at least one athletic inside linebacker. They don't even need first-round NFL talent at QB, just good college QBs because the rest of the team is that good to dominate.

 

[Burgh15]

I think he's pretty much spot on.

I'm iffy on MIami, PSU, and Notre Dame.

I don't think any teams that aren't on the list have any legit shot at winning a national title.

Miami has maybe one 10-win season in the past 20 years (Texas is here as well, they've been irrelevant for so long). Notre Dame has proven to get blown out in every chance they've had. Penn State has good, but never complete rosters.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I think he's pretty much spot on.

I'm iffy on MIami, PSU, and Notre Dame.

I don't think any teams that aren't on the list have any legit shot at winning a national title.

I'm trying to think of the five I would add if I absolutely had to. And it would definitely require a series of unlikely events, but maybe...

Arkansas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Nebraska... I'm already venturing into fantasyland.

 

[forbesfield]

Yeah, I guess the wild card for PSU is that quarterback.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Yeah, I guess the wild card for PSU is that quarterback.

Right. If any teams gets their Michael Vick and all the chips fall into place, who knows what happens?

I also think NIL, the expanded playoff, and the transfer portal might produce a larger chasm between the haves and have-nots, but perhaps more parity among the haves. Like we've seen A&M and Tennessee, two teams who haven't been all that great recently, use NIL to land some recruits that were probably Alabama/Georgia-bound a few years ago.

Basically, there couldn't be any less parity in college football than there has been the last decade or so... so you would think that any changes MIGHT create a little more of it, since there is no place to go but up.

 

[pittdan77]

I think there is a rule that Miami has to be on all of these lists despite the fact they crap the bed all the time.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I think there is a rule that Miami has to be on all of these lists despite the fact they crap the bed all the time.

I think they're the team you kind of include just to let everyone know you're touching on all hypotheticals and omitting absolutely no one who has even a remote chance, haha.

They're kind of the "IF, and I mean IF... ehhhh, never mind; I'm just tipsy" team.

 

[Dointhatrag]

Three big ten contenders? And exactly how many championships have they won in the last several decades? Just because you have a large alumni base and inflated rankings doesn’t make you a contender

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Three big ten contenders? And exactly how many championships have they won in the last several decades? Just because you have a large alumni base and inflated rankings doesn’t make you a contender

Texas A&M hasn't won one in almost 100 years, but it's hard to say they're not at least vying for one if they're going to do things such as using NIL money to buy one of the best recruiting classes of all time.

Ohio State and USC have at least combined for four this century, which is a start. Shoot, Ohio State almost won one last year.

 

[Pitt2009]

Washington and Utah have as good a chance as any team not named Georgia, OSU, Alabama, or Michigan.

 

[cashisking884]

Washington and Utah have as good a chance as any team not named Georgia, OSU, Alabama, or Michigan.

No they don’t.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Washington and Utah have as good a chance as any team not named Georgia, OSU, Alabama, or Michigan.

No way, haha. No way in hell. The 2022 PAC champion, Utah, lost to a mediocre SEC team, Florida. The 2021 ACC champion, Pitt, barely squeaked by a so-so SEC team, Tennessee.

The disparity is real.

 

[TD_6082]

I think there is a rule that Miami has to be on all of these lists despite the fact they crap the bed all the time.

They probably have to go rouge and overspend, but they have a good talent base and they also have the ability to attract players nationally.

 

[TD_6082]

Also, it's very very hard at Tennessee.

They definitely stand to benefit with NIL money.

 

[Upg bobcat]

Just figured this would generate some interesting discussion. Bud Elliot named 18 teams the other day who he said could have a reasonable expectation to win a national championship in the current college football climate. That doesn't mean they're competing for one this year or even that they've been all that close in the last decade or two. Just teams that, given the resources they have/where they recruit, basically COULD win one.

ACC: Clemson, FSU, Miami (he was iffy on Miami)
BIG: Ohio State, USC, Michigan, Penn State
SEC: Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M
PAC: Oregon
Other: Notre Dame
Big 12: None

Disagree with any of these? Would you add anybody?

I think they're fairly spot on, while acknowledging that teams like Penn State, Miami, Oregon, and Notre Dame would be more toward the bottom of those 18.

And yes - you'll have a TCU, Michigan State, Washington, Cincinnati, etc. sneak into the playoff every once in a while. But none of them were a legit threat to actually win it all.

TCU made the championship game. I know they got crushed. But if you are going to say Michigan is a threat to win it all, then TCU was as much of a threat.

 

[Upg bobcat]

Yeah, I guess the wild card for PSU is that quarterback.

That and the fact that Franklin's teams are generally soft.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

TCU made the championship game. I know they got crushed. But if you are going to say Michigan is a threat to win it all, then TCU was as much of a threat.

Well that's the thing. Michigan has a much higher CEILING than TCU. Cincinnati made the playoff and USC hasn't. But they certainly don't have a higher ceiling. If Missouri finishes ahead of Texas for the next ten years, they still don't have a higher ceiling.

 

[Pitt2009]

No way, haha. No way in hell. The 2022 PAC champion, Utah, lost to a mediocre SEC team, Florida. The 2021 ACC champion, Pitt, barely squeaked by a so-so SEC team, Tennessee.

The disparity is real.

Ok, Utah is a stretch but Washington definitely has a shot. They have the most explosive offense in the county. Penix is a top 3 QB and Odunze/McMillan are the best WR duo after Harrison/Egbuka.

Defense is obviously a question mark.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Ok, Utah is a stretch but Washington definitely has a shot. They have the most explosive offense in the county. Penix is a top 3 QB and Odunze/McMillan are the best WR duo after Harrison/Egbuka.

Defense is obviously a question mark.

They would get their titties speed-bagged by Georgia or Alabama. This is more of a generality thing than a specific one-year thing, but they have no chance either way.

 

[Upg bobcat]

Well that's the thing. Michigan has a much higher CEILING than TCU. Cincinnati made the playoff and USC hasn't. But they certainly don't have a higher ceiling. If Missouri finishes ahead of Texas for the next ten years, they still don't have a higher ceiling.

In theory Michigan has a higher ceiling -- but either Michigan has never hit its ceiling, or it's ceiling actually isn't as high as its perceived to be. Because TCU has been there, Michigan has not.

Honestly, if you wanted to change the list to 5 programs (Bama, UGA, Clemson, LSU, OSU), I would not argue against it. Those 5 programs account for 16 of the 18 teams that have made the championship game in the playoff era (and LSU only one out of those 16, but it at least won the championship so it has demonstrated it can win it all).