National Championship Contenders

[Pitt2009]

They would get their titties speed-bagged by Georgia or Alabama. This is more of a generality thing than a specific one-year thing, but they have no chance either way.

I won’t argue that but so would most teams on Bud Elliot’s list.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

I’d like to see Clemson put up one or two more before I’m convinced they belong in a permanent list. They were lost in the woods for a long time before the last few years.

I’d like to see ND, Texas, Miami and PSU live up to potential/spend with winning even one, before I’d include them as well.

FSU is kind of laughable given its crazy antics the past half decade. Seems less stable than even Miami, and that’s saying a lot.

Of course there will be occasions when any one of these might put together a run, and if they actually finish the job once or twice, then indeed they could enter the upper echelon status.

Until then I think the truly elite, the schools really deserve to have high expectations nearly every year to win it all, would only include Bama, Georgia, Ohio State, possibly LSU and Oklahoma and (my own opinion) USC (once it gets into the B1G and the schedules it draws).

 

[Pitt2009]

Franklin's teams often crumble under adversity, it's almost a trademark of his and the PSU program. I'll give Franklin credit, he recruits well and has assembled a team superior than most of his competition so he doesn't have to face difficult situations often, but I would bet against him when he is up against similar levels of talent. I'll never forget when he chickened out and called a running play on 4th and 5 against OSU. Or 2021 when PSU had a top four team but then lost a game which led to losing 6 of 8 games to finish the season.

I think it’s more due to QB play. An elite QB would put Penn State in the CFP discussion most years. Problem is they haven’t had an elite QB since Michael Robinson.

 

[cashisking884]

But not if those teams reached their ceilings.

That’s the point.

These are the only teams with national title ceilings.

I won’t argue that but so would most teams on Bud Elliot’s list.

 

[h2p_5150]

Yeah he's spot on. I like imagine if you put Lamar Jackson on a teams best recent team would they be able to upset Bama or Georgia? I'd say yes for 2016 Penn State or a few recent Michigan teams, for instance. I can't think of a recent Miami team that is true for though.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Yeah he's spot on. I like imagine if you put Lamar Jackson on a teams best recent team would they be able to upset Bama or Georgia? I'd say yes for 2016 Penn State or a few recent Michigan teams, for instance. I can't think of a recent Miami team that is true for though.

'22 Dolphins

 

[Pitt2009]

But not if those teams reached their ceilings.

That’s the point.

These are the only teams with national title ceilings.

Fair point.

 

[h2p_5150]

'22 Dolphins

Heh- they might have a shot. Now that I think of it 2016 Pitt makes the playoffs with Jackson. That defense would have given up 90 points to Bama in a playoff game though.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

Heh- they might have a shot. Now that I think of it 2016 Pitt makes the playoffs with Jackson. That defense would have given up 90 points to Bama in a playoff game though.

Alabama (and frankly, we) would score so often that the game might still be happening now. As it is I think the Syracuse game only ended a couple hours ago.

 

[FireballZ]

They got pasted by Alabama in the semis in 2017 (similar to Michigan State in 2016 and Cincinnati in 2021). I'm only talking about the teams that made the championship games itself.

I'd say making it to the final four is "getting close" and I wouldn't call a 17-7 game in the 4th Quarter getting pasted.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I'd say making it to the final four is "getting close" and I wouldn't call a 17-7 game in the 4th Quarter getting pasted.

Okay, well the final was 24-7, and Washington had less than 200 yards of offense. Did Michigan not handle Purdue in the Big Ten Championship last year just because it was a one-point game at halftime?

And Alabama didn't even win the national championship that year, so it's safe to assume that Clemson was even better. If we add the 4 points they beat Alabama by, we have them beating Washington by three touchdowns. Is that a close game to you? So we have Washington, in total, needing to overcome deficits of 17 and (estimating, but...) 21 points. Not exactly a lucky bounce away.

 

[revampedpanthers]

Just figured this would generate some interesting discussion. Bud Elliot named 18 teams the other day who he said could have a reasonable expectation to win a national championship in the current college football climate. That doesn't mean they're competing for one this year or even that they've been all that close in the last decade or two. Just teams that, given the resources they have/where they recruit, basically COULD win one.

ACC: Clemson, FSU, Miami (he was iffy on Miami)
BIG: Ohio State, USC, Michigan, Penn State
SEC: Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M
PAC: Oregon
Other: Notre Dame
Big 12: None

Disagree with any of these? Would you add anybody?

I think they're fairly spot on, while acknowledging that teams like Penn State, Miami, Oregon, and Notre Dame would be more toward the bottom of those 18.

And yes - you'll have a TCU, Michigan State, Washington, Cincinnati, etc. sneak into the playoff every once in a while. But none of them were a legit threat to actually win it all.

I think with a perfect scenario those teams could all win a national championship but I would say Miami,Penn State, Oregon and Auburn wouldn't really be on my list of teams likely to have a shot in the next 10 years.

Maybe if it was the old system I would add those teams and a few more but you normally have to be at two of the big dogs now to win it.

 

[thebadby2]

Lots of teams have incredible talent among their starting 22. Very, very few teams have that same level of talent along their 2 deep. What sets Bama and Georgia apart is that they have that talent even in their 3 deep. Injuries happen, and if say PSU or Michigan loses an All-American in game 3, the drop-off for the rest of the way is steep. Not so at the very top. A lot of teams can contend if they can stay perfectly healthy, which they can't. They can't win, but they can "contend". Lose a few players, though, and even that is gone.

The high level depth is certainly a big factor in the dominance of the Bamas and UGAs, but I agree with Cash that the biggest factor is the athletic freaks these schools have stacked deep along both lines that separates them. Physical and athletic dominance in the trenches. It's not gonna be much of a contest when one team's DL gets 3 yards upfield at the snap of the ball on every single play.

 

[Pitt2009]

Ok, Utah is a stretch but Washington definitely has a shot. They have the most explosive offense in the county. Penix is a top 3 QB and Odunze/McMillan are the best WR duo after Harrison/Egbuka.

Defense is obviously a question mark.

I’m wondering if anybody’s opinion of Washington’s National Championship chances have changed?