Networks pushing back on Big XII expansion

[pittdan77]

They added TV;s, but did they add actual viewers? NYC doesn't care about college football for the most part. And certainly Rutgers doesn't move the needle. Same with DC in some respects. Fiercely pro centric towns, many transplants, and neither program has a recognizable brand identity.

NY couldn't care less. But as a subscriber, you don't get to tell the provider you don't want to pay extra for the B1G Network. You just get it and your bill goes up. B1G could care less if you watch. That's why third year broadcast majors call volleyball games.

 

[ThePanthers]

This has to be their strategy – it's the only thing about this whole deal that makes any goddamn sense.

I disagreed with @topdecktiger earlier this week, reasoning there is no way the B12 would make any major membership decisions without first consulting the people who will actually be cutting the checks to pay for the entire enterprise?

That made no sense whatsoever.

It also made no sense for them to make a deal that was reliant on permanent television revenue inequity. You don't have to be Cedric Dempsey to realize that plan just wouldn't work over the long haul. The B12 is run by a bunch of very bright people and there is no way they would set up their league to fail like that.

However, maybe that was never their goal in the first place?

Maybe, just maybe, they knew the reaction they would receive from the television networks, which is why they seemingly schizophrenically went from no expansion at all to a four team expansion in the span of about 24 days? They really wanted to turn up the heat on the television networks.

That's really the only way some of these puzzle pieces start fitting together again.

The Big 12, which is already overpaid for 10 teams, is going back to the television well trying to be even more overpaid. That's pretty ballsy on their part – which explains why they resorted to such drastic (desperate) measures.

If I were ESPN/FOX I'd call their bluff. Let them expand by two or even four more teams. Let them deal with selling tickets and sponsorships to play annual games versus Houston or Memphis or someone like that.

There is no way they will go through with it. They will end up expanding by two teams at max - probably BYU and Houston or Cincinnati.

The Big XII may be run by some very smart people, the issue though is that they all have different goals, and not a common one. Texas wants to rule the roost. OU wants to push up against them to show they are just as strong. And the rest have to bow down and follow.

I know there is always different viewpoints in every conference (or anything for that matter), but typically leadership pulls together and they come to a common goal/solution.

This never seems to be the case in the Big XII, which is why it always looks like a giant cluster.

That said, I agree with you that Texas and OU are not going anywhere. They wouldn't be able to pull this garbage off in any other conference.

But I said since they announced expansion that this is just probably a negiating ploy to get more money from the networks to remove that pro rata clause. I dont' think they expand.

 

[Jpripper88]

Yeah, everyone keeps saying that they are both going to jump in 2025 as if it's a certainty but where are they going to go where they can get anywhere near the deal they have now?

Remember, Texas in particular already has more money than God. They are like Notre Dame in that they make so much money in so many different enterprises that money is no longer their primary motivator, power is.

Texas and Oklahoma each enjoy unmitigated power in their current situation and they are not wanting for anything financially. Also, the simple truth is they can't be nearly as powerful in any of the other Power 5 leagues as they are right now in the B12, where they are surrounded by a bunch of programs in their natural graphic region and with whom they have a ton of shared history.

Why on earth would they be willing to give that up willy-nilly? So they can go from bringing in $163 million a year to $173 million a year?

By way of comparison, Alabama - ALA-PHUCKING-BAMA!!! - cleared $97 million last year.

I think it is in the best interest of everyone involved that the Big 12 stays together for the long-haul and I think they will all work very hard to find a way to make that happen.

Oklahoma doesn't make that kind of money and when the B1G and SEC are closing in on $50M vs. $25M for B12 that will absolutely be a motivator for both schools.

 

[TD_istheman]

I lived literally a driver and a 7 iron from Mountaineer Field in Morgantown.

I would kill myself lol. In Bluefield you get a lot of Hokie fans as well. As that is right on the border. Many there just live through WVU, like yinzers do with the Steelers, actually have lots in common

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

I would kill myself lol. In Bluefield you get a lot of Hokie fans as well. As that is right on the border. Many there just live through WVU, like yinzers do with the Steelers, actually have lots in common

No. Bluefield is the sticks, it is hillbilly country. Morgantown is basically a suburb of Pittsburgh that roots for WVU. Morgantown wasn't bad.

 

[Dr. von Yinzer]

Oklahoma doesn't make that kind of money and when the B1G and SEC are closing in on $50M vs. $25M for B12 that will absolutely be a motivator for both schools.

I was talking specifically about Texas - the primary driver of any decision here.

No matter what happens they are going to remain wealthier than all of their competition for the foreseeable future. Would they like to maintain their current advantage over everyone else? Of course they would. However would they be willing to sacrifice their autonomy to do it. No way - I just don't see that as being a realistic aspiration on the B1G's part. I think Texas would go indie first.

Now, if Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, etc., were willing to give the Longhorns the biggest voice in the room - like they currently enjoy - that would be different. I just don't see that happening either.

 

[Dr. von Yinzer]

No. Bluefield is the sticks, it is hillbilly country. Morgantown is basically a suburb of Pittsburgh that roots for WVU. Morgantown wasn't bad.

I lived in Clarksburg - about a half hour down the road from Morgantown and it definitely did NOT feel like a suburb of Pittsburgh. It very much felt like the sticks.

More accurately, it felt like if you took say, Bellevue and placed it in the middle of nowhere, that's Clarksburg. You couldn't pay me to set foot in that town again.

 

[Jpripper88]

I was talking specifically about Texas - the primary driver of any decision here.

No matter what happens they are going to remain wealthier than all of their competition for the foreseeable future. Would they like to maintain their current advantage over everyone else? Of course they would. However would they be willing to sacrifice their autonomy to do it. No way - I just don't see that as being a realistic aspiration on the B1G's part. I think Texas would go indie first.

Now, if Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, etc., were willing to give the Longhorns the biggest voice in the room - like they currently enjoy - that would be different. I just don't see that happening either.

Except I could see the B1G or SEC taking OU and Kansas (especially because it might effectively kill KState) and then the B12 is dead, whether UT likes it or not. For those schools, the extra $20-25M would mean an enormous amount. You are certainly right it means less to UT, but it does carry a lot of weight.

 

[Las Panteras]

The demise of the big 12 is exaggerated. There will be an 8 team playoff soon...the big 12 will have a seat at the table

The idea that the league will be controlled by UT and OU is exactly why they will stay.

If anyone is going to the big 10 it is Kansas.

 

[topdecktiger]

This has to be their strategy – it's the only thing about this whole deal that makes any goddamn sense.

I disagreed with @topdecktiger earlier this week, reasoning there is no way the B12 would make any major membership decisions without first consulting the people who will actually be cutting the checks to pay for the entire enterprise?

That made no sense whatsoever.

It also made no sense for them to make a deal that was reliant on permanent television revenue inequity. You don't have to be Cedric Dempsey to realize that plan just wouldn't work over the long haul. The B12 is run by a bunch of very bright people and there is no way they would set up their league to fail like that.

However, maybe that was never their goal in the first place?

Maybe, just maybe, they knew the reaction they would receive from the television networks, which is why they seemingly schizophrenically went from no expansion at all to a four team expansion in the span of about 24 days? They really wanted to turn up the heat on the television networks.

That's really the only way some of these puzzle pieces start fitting together again.

The Big 12, which is already overpaid for 10 teams, is going back to the television well trying to be even more overpaid. That's pretty ballsy on their part – which explains why they resorted to such drastic (desperate) measures.

If I were ESPN/FOX I'd call their bluff. Let them expand by two or even four more teams. Let them deal with selling tickets and sponsorships to play annual games versus Houston or Memphis or someone like that.

There is no way they will go through with it. They will end up expanding by two teams at max - probably BYU and Houston or Cincinnati.

That's still no different. If the Big 12 just adds two schools, it still triggers the pro rata clause. That means there still isn't any extra money for the original schools, unless they lowball the new schools. Expanding by just two schools doesn't solve any of the problems. The only way for the Big 12 to get extra money (without lowballing new members) is to get a new TV contract. Well the problem there is, ESPN and Fox don't like any of these schools, whether it's 2 or 4. It's unlikely that ESPN and Fox would agree to a new contract and pay even more for teams they don't want in the first place.
The only way to reasonably accomplish the goal of getting the Big 12 more money (and not piss off Fox & ESPN) would be to stay a 10, and try to get a new contract that only pays, say, 1/4 of the pro rata increase. Otherwise, you still have the same problem of the Big 12 not getting extra money, and ESPN and Fox having to shell out $1/2-1 billion.

 

[CrazyPaco]

The demise of the big 12 is exaggerated. There will be an 8 team playoff soon...the big 12 will have a seat at the table

The idea that the league will be controlled by UT and OU is exactly why they will stay.

If anyone is going to the big 10 it is Kansas.

Seeing as OU tried to go to the Pac before, without Texas, my guess they would be out of the B12 faster than you can say Big Ten invite.

 

[pittdan77]

The demise of the big 12 is exaggerated. There will be an 8 team playoff soon...the big 12 will have a seat at the table

The idea that the league will be controlled by UT and OU is exactly why they will stay.

If anyone is going to the big 10 it is Kansas.

I wouldn't tell anyone at WVU that everything is fine. They're sweating. I think reality has set in and they realize they have little or no control at this point.

 

[Pitt4Life34]

I really feel for WVU fans. I do. I lived there, so I have alot of friends and former coworkers there. Alot of customers also. That doesn't make me giggle and chuckle at their predicament, but man I feel for their angst.

Because I am sorry, we have all lived this nightmare. The Big 12 certainly feels and is now looking more and more like the Big East. Disjointed, lacking cohesion and direction. With the sharks circling ready to swoop up the prime meat, leaving the chum to fend for themselves.

I am not sure there is a lifeline for WVU if there are raids...because IMO, all it takes is Texas and or the Oklahoma's, and this league is done. It cannot survive another team like that leaving.

I'm with you recruits. I have family, friends and clients associated with WVU. I don't want to see WVU harmed and would love to have them in ACC playing them every year. If Texas or Oklahoma don't sign a new GOR extension then I see no way that conference survives long term.

 

[Pitt4Life34]

I lived in Clarksburg - about a half hour down the road from Morgantown and it definitely did NOT feel like a suburb of Pittsburgh. It very much felt like the sticks.

More accurately, it felt like if you took say, Bellevue and placed it in the middle of nowhere, that's Clarksburg. You couldn't pay me to set foot in that town again.

How much would it take to have you go back to Clarksburg? Give me a number $$$!!!!

 

[Pitt4Life34]

All fun Dr!!! You're a huge Pitt guy so I'd pay for a rescue team to get you out of Clarksburg.

 

[JHud986]

personally if the hoopies go down the tubes so be it. It is becoming more the survival of the strongest. I want Pitt standing at the end! As for the rest, I don't care about.

 

[revampedpanthers]

That's still no different. If the Big 12 just adds two schools, it still triggers the pro rata clause. That means there still isn't any extra money for the original schools, unless they lowball the new schools. Expanding by just two schools doesn't solve any of the problems. The only way for the Big 12 to get extra money (without lowballing new members) is to get a new TV contract. Well the problem there is, ESPN and Fox don't like any of these schools, whether it's 2 or 4. It's unlikely that ESPN and Fox would agree to a new contract and pay even more for teams they don't want in the first place.
The only way to reasonably accomplish the goal of getting the Big 12 more money (and not piss off Fox & ESPN) would be to stay a 10, and try to get a new contract that only pays, say, 1/4 of the pro rata increase. Otherwise, you still have the same problem of the Big 12 not getting extra money, and ESPN and Fox having to shell out $1/2-1 billion.

b12 is kind of stuck they need another two teams to balance schedule and make it easier for the top teams to finish highly ranked but there aren't two teams that add anywhere close to the value thats needed to stay even. Also OK is the one to watch because they are the one that isn't making what they could be in any other conference, probably including the pac12 because Ok moving would up anyone's tv contract a few million. I don't think anyone is going anywhere for another 5 years after that if the GOR isn't extended you may see some movement. I think TX is happy with the status quo but everyone else wants something. I would probably add byu and cincy if I was in charge and call it a day, they aren't getting any current p5 schools anytime soon and those two are the closest to being p5 currently not in the p5.

 

[revampedpanthers]

personally if the hoopies go down the tubes so be it. It is becoming more the survival of the strongest. I want Pitt standing at the end! As for the rest, I don't care about.

Thats why the news of the ACC network was such great news. It basically guarantee's Pitt has a spot at the big boy table for the next 20 years. Don't know how I feel about the b12 now, before I was hoping they would fall apart because it seemed to be a battle between them and the ACC but now its likely the b12 falling apart would only strengthen the other conferences and put the ACC behind them. that is unless TX would come to the ACC.

 

[QuitCallingMeWanny]

Wait I thought the Big 12 was swimming in cash because of the secret Third tier rights that are bringing in multi millions....at least according to the dude of wvu

 

[pittdan77]

Folks, the fact that the Big 12 isn't out trying to pick off big fish tells you what you want to know about the situation. Nobody in that conference that is worth anything is going to extend the GOR with a TV partner that will want to recoup it's losses if the conference expands for the sake of expansion. Especially when there are other opportunities to explore. You can't tell me schools won't get nervous and start looking around. If one bigger fish flinches, the whole thing will make the Big East implosion look pretty unimpressive.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

I lived in Clarksburg - about a half hour down the road from Morgantown and it definitely did NOT feel like a suburb of Pittsburgh. It very much felt like the sticks.

More accurately, it felt like if you took say, Bellevue and placed it in the middle of nowhere, that's Clarksburg. You couldn't pay me to set foot in that town again.

I worked in that carbon plant in Clarksburg right off of 79. For like 8 years. I swear to god, I was in downtown Clarksburg maybe a half dozen times, so I know what you mean.

But Morgantown, half the students were from Western Pa, they had all the Pittsburgh stations, I was an hour away from Mt. Lebanon. I merely said that when the guy was trying to compare living in Bluefield with Morgantown. Clarksburg would be Paris in comparison to Bluefield I would think.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

It depends what is in the actual contract. During the whole "Big 12 is taking over the ACC" thing a few years ago, I specifically remember a national writer (Dodd maybe) saying the contract said they would get pro rata increases regardless of which teams were added and then went further saying it didnt matter if they added Florida State or Florida Atlantic.

But, nobody knows EXACTLY what's in the contract. I'm sure ESPN and FOX dont want to pay for Cincy and Houston.......but if its in the contract they dont have much of a choice.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Wait I thought the Big 12 was swimming in cash because of the secret Third tier rights that are bringing in multi millions....at least according to the dude of wvu

There was also a certain poster here who bought that stuff hook, line and sinker. But he's an expert on this stuff. Just ask him. He'll tell you.

 

[TD_istheman]

No. Bluefield is the sticks, it is hillbilly country. Morgantown is basically a suburb of Pittsburgh that roots for WVU. Morgantown wasn't bad.

It's not in the sticks , it has more minorities % than anywhere else in the state. It kicks azz in football and most sports. I lived there and I know. Sticks is all those white schools in the middle of nowhere, Bluefield is nothing like that.

Morgantown is the slums, Pittsburgh is nothing like that shittthole

 

[TD_istheman]

I worked in that carbon plant in Clarksburg right off of 79. For like 8 years. I swear to god, I was in downtown Clarksburg maybe a half dozen times, so I know what you mean.

But Morgantown, half the students were from Western Pa, they had all the Pittsburgh stations, I was an hour away from Mt. Lebanon. I merely said that when the guy was trying to compare living in Bluefield with Morgantown. Clarksburg would be Paris in comparison to Bluefield I would think.

Hey uppity, you ever live in Bluefield ? Close to VA tech, which blows away WVU in every aspect and morganhole, don't compare the schools, lose everytime. Yinzers should stop talking about things they know nothing of. You want to talk about slums, throw a rock from down town Pittsburgh, and you hit like 20!

 

[TD_istheman]

I live in Pittsburgh, I see slums in every direction within 5 minutes of town. Glass houses my friend. Clarksburg, you kidding me, more rednecks there then in happy valley, good lord

 

[Jpripper88]

Thats why the news of the ACC network was such great news. It basically guarantee's Pitt has a spot at the big boy table for the next 20 years. Don't know how I feel about the b12 now, before I was hoping they would fall apart because it seemed to be a battle between them and the ACC but now its likely the b12 falling apart would only strengthen the other conferences and put the ACC behind them. that is unless TX would come to the ACC.

If the B12 fails it would at least strengthen 1 of the SEC or B1G, but they are already ahead of the ACC, so there won't be any difference in the hierarchy, just the spread. However, it guarantees ACC longevity and security IMO. Only 3 (and one of them might be the worst P5 football program in the country) schools in the B12 have real value with a 4th ok. So, I think, if the B12 fails, there is better chance the ACC comes up roses because they have a decent shot at UT and thus at ND, which would be enormous. And, as a result of that, only 1 other conference could add two programs of true value, instead of both.

 

[pittdan77]

There is an article (can't find the link) citing unnamed sources at TCU saying that...

1. Cincy is a no-brainer and has everyone's support.
2. The second school is where the struggle is at. No clear consensus.
3. There is a small contingent of schools that want to jump straight to 14.
4. While an agreement to explore expansion exists, there's no guarantee it's happening because the feeling is that an expanded playoff gives the conference an advantage with only 10 schools.
5. (Get this one) The ACC might move on UConn before the Big 12 does anything.

Also, a lot of the WVU board are convinced Fox is pushing to get more viewers to the east but ESPN is the one that's making the noise about the TV contract because they don't want to pay more for content they are already providing with some of the schools being tossed around. That actually makes some sense.

There's also a theory that someone could jump from another P5 (presumably the ACC) and that UConn is the backfill. Hints that ESPN is brokering something. This seems terribly unlikely but what do I know.

Not saying I agree with any of this, just reporting in. If I find the link, I'll update.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

I live in Pittsburgh, I see slums in every direction within 5 minutes of town. Glass houses my friend. Clarksburg, you kidding me, more rednecks there then in happy valley, good lord

I think you are talking about "slums" a little too literally.

Ask 100 people where they would rather live, Morgantown or Bluefield, 90 out of a 100 would take Morgantown.

 

[ThePanthers]

There is an article (can't find the link) citing unnamed sources at TCU saying that...

1. Cincy is a no-brainer and has everyone's support.
2. The second school is where the struggle is at. No clear consensus.
3. There is a small contingent of schools that want to jump straight to 14.
4. While an agreement to explore expansion exists, there's no guarantee it's happening because the feeling is that an expanded playoff gives the conference an advantage with only 10 schools.
5. (Get this one) The ACC might move on UConn before the Big 12 does anything.

Also, a lot of the WVU board are convinced Fox is pushing to get more viewers to the east but ESPN is the one that's making the noise about the TV contract because they don't want to pay more for content they are already providing with some of the schools being tossed around. That actually makes some sense.

There's also a theory that someone could jump from another P5 (presumably the ACC) and that UConn is the backfill. Hints that ESPN is brokering something. This seems terribly unlikely but what do I know.

Not saying I agree with any of this, just reporting in. If I find the link, I'll update.

It's that frogsowar and they are FOS.

As for FOX wanting to expand:

http://www.campusrush.com/big-12-expansion-tv-contract-espn-fox-1957715979.html

Both Andy Staples and John Ourand of SBJ have said the exact opposite and that FOX is the one who is digging in the most.

The other article that frogsowar guy is referring too was an opinion piece by some Texas blogger.

 

[ThePanthers]

http://www.frogsowar.com/2016/8/1/12266422/tcu-source-big-12-expansion-is-complicated-at-best

Here is that link. And whoever came up with that theory about an ACC jumping and using UConn to be the backfill and ESPN is brokering a deal is a moron. Probably that MVHer guy.

Unless they are working to get Wake Forest out and bring in UConn, after the network announcement, that makes absolutely no sense what-so-ever.

Plus if it was up to the networks, they'd like everything to stay the same. I sure they are tired of reopening contracts, paying more money, etc.

 

[pittdan77]

http://www.frogsowar.com/2016/8/1/12266422/tcu-source-big-12-expansion-is-complicated-at-best

Here is that link. And whoever came up with that theory about an ACC jumping and using UConn to be the backfill and ESPN is brokering a deal is a moron. Probably that MVHer guy.

Unless they are working to get Wake Forest out and bring in UConn, after the network announcement, that makes absolutely no sense what-so-ever.

Plus if it was up to the networks, they'd like everything to stay the same. I sure they are tired of reopening contracts, paying more money, etc.

Thank you for posting the link.

There seems to be a lot of hot air blowing around but that's what makes conference expansion great for message boards.

 

[revampedpanthers]

http://www.frogsowar.com/2016/8/1/12266422/tcu-source-big-12-expansion-is-complicated-at-best

Here is that link. And whoever came up with that theory about an ACC jumping and using UConn to be the backfill and ESPN is brokering a deal is a moron. Probably that MVHer guy.

Unless they are working to get Wake Forest out and bring in UConn, after the network announcement, that makes absolutely no sense what-so-ever.

Plus if it was up to the networks, they'd like everything to stay the same. I sure they are tired of reopening contracts, paying more money, etc.

Yeah they just can't give up the idea that the ACC>b12 and no one wants to go there. Somehow the ACC and pac12 GOR are easy to get out of but the b12's which is up sooner is Iron clad. No p5 is switching conferences for 5 years at least, unless enough of the b12 (6 schools)just decides f*ck it lets get the hell out.