Next year's schedule...

[UPitt '89]

...with this year's Sagarin rankings:

#3 Clemson (AWAY)
#13 North Carolina (AWAY)
#16 Oklahoma State (AWAY)
#47 Virginia Tech
#48 Penn State
#50 Miami (AWAY)
#58 Duke
#59 Georgia Tech
#67 Marshall
#75 Virginia (AWAY)
#80 Syracuse
#126 Villanova

Pitt might have the hardest road schedule in all of the NCAA next year. Three Top 20 teams, average rankings of #31.

We should be favored in every home game.... But if we win two road games, we should consider it an excellent season. Hopefully OkSt is not as good next year as this year and hopefully it takes a couple years before Bronco Mendenhall gets things going at UVa.

That's a helluva tough schedule

 

[Swervin27]

welcome to a real P5 schedule. we haven't seen one in awhile.. UNC is losing their QB, a big part of what made them good.. Clemson is Clemson and Ok state is a real good program. Actually thinking the Marshall game at home will be a tough test..

ACC coastal is still the worst division in the P5 though. Va Tech is trending down, Virginia basically sucks, no clue with what you'll get with Ga Tech, I expect them to be much better, Miami will have a new coach and Syracuse will be below average.. My expectations are the same, 7-5 is break even point, 8 wins is a success and 9 or more and I am drinking a bottle of jameson and taking off all my clothes and getting arrested in the south side for making love to a fire hydrant..

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Comparing it to last year's schedule:

Nova vs YSU - same
Marshall vs @ Akron - harder
PSU vs ND - easier
@ OKST vs @ Iowa - harder (their crazy spread is a more difficult matchup for us)
@ Clemson vs Louisville - harder
Syr vs @ Syr - easier
@ UNC vs UNC - about the same
@ Miami vs Miami - harder, they will be better
Duke vs @ Duke - harder with Sirk
GT vs @ GT - they wont be this bad next year
VT vs @ VT - same, it will take Fuente a year or 2
@UVa vs UVa - harder, never play well there

The schedule is much more difficult. 8-4 next year would be a rousing success.

 

[H2Pittisit]

I fear it's going to be a very long year unless Boyd comes back. I think Va Tech and Virginia hired the right coaches, but it will depend on how long it takes to get things rolling. I fully expect Georgia Tech to get healthy and be closer to 2014 Ga Tech...Thomas returns. Duke will have Sirk coming back. I think beating Penn State and Marshall are a must in order to get to bowl eligible.

Probable losses - Clemson, North Carolina, Oklahoma St., Miami
Can win or lose - Va Tech, Penn State, Duke, Ga Tech
Probable wins - Syracuse, Virginia, Marshall, Villanova

 

[Swervin27]

Comparing it to last year's schedule:

Nova vs YSU - same
Marshall vs @ Akron - harder
PSU vs ND - easier
@ OKST vs @ Iowa - harder (their crazy spread is a more difficult matchup for us)
@ Clemson vs Louisville - harder
Syr vs @ Syr - easier
@ UNC vs UNC - about the same
@ Miami vs Miami - harder, they will be better
Duke vs @ Duke - harder with Sirk
GT vs @ GT - they wont be this bad next year
VT vs @ VT - same, it will take Fuente a year or 2
@UVa vs UVa - harder, never play well there

The schedule is much more difficult. 8-4 next year would be a rousing success.

Nice breakdown SMF. Disagree with unc though, they lose Quise (I think), this year was one of those years for them.. Duke is trending down, they are like the ACC's version of Rutgers, had a few good years but that is ending. 8-4 is a good year though, I agree with you on that..

 

[VAPITTALUM]

welcome to a real P5 schedule. we haven't seen one in awhile.. UNC is losing their QB, a big part of what made them good.. Clemson is Clemson and Ok state is a real good program. Actually thinking the Marshall game at home will be a tough test..

ACC coastal is still the worst division in the P5 though. Va Tech is trending down, Virginia basically sucks, no clue with what you'll get with Ga Tech, I expect them to be much better, Miami will have a new coach and Syracuse will be below average.. My expectations are the same, 7-5 is break even point, 8 wins is a success and 9 or more and I am drinking a bottle of jameson and taking off all my clothes and getting arrested in the south side for making love to a fire hydrant..

A couple of flaws in your statement:

1. This year's strength of schedule was ranked 31st in the country. Ahead of teams like Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State (focused on teams close to PITT that are relevant).

2. ACC Coastal is not the worst division in the P5. The SEC East and PAC 12 South are fighting for that distinction.

3 of PITT's 5 losses came against Top 10 teams (although UNC is likely going to fall out of the Top 10), with one loss to a team that will likely find its way into the Top 20.

 

[Swervin27]

A couple of flaws in your statement:

1. This year's strength of schedule was ranked 31st in the country. Ahead of teams like Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State (focused on teams close to PITT that are relevant).

2. ACC Coastal is not the worst division in the P5. The SEC East and PAC 12 South are fighting for that distinction.

3 of PITT's 5 losses came against Top 10 teams (although UNC is likely going to fall out of the Top 10), with one loss to a team that will likely find its way into the Top 20.

a debate between coastal and SEC east for sure, they had a bad year. Overall though, they have some very respectable programs that are annually much better than anything in coastal (Mainly FLa and GA), tenn is hit or miss. Not sure about your comment on pitt's 5 losses, did I dispute this.. My general point here is that an average P5 schedule here is what we have but we are so used to several mickey mouse scrimmages that when we see an actual game against an opponent with a heartbeat, we automatically say what a hard game it is. It's supposed to be hard, to quote Tom Hanks, the tough is what makes it great. The less FIU and akron garbage on our schedule, the better.

 

[doubleAA's]

yeah, that is brutal. Much more difficult schedule, and even the light weights on the schedule like Marshall, penn state and villanova are all localish teams that will bring intensity,

 

[yourhired]

Marshall may be pushed back a year or two. Just speculating on my part. The road schedule is definitely tougher however with that being said we split the road games . If Richt can get Miami moving in the right direction then the last game of the year will be fun to watch.

 

[VAPITTALUM]

a debate between coastal and SEC east for sure, they had a bad year. Overall though, they have some very respectable programs that are annually much better than anything in coastal (Mainly FLa and GA), tenn is hit or miss. Not sure about your comment on pitt's 5 losses, did I dispute this.. My general point here is that an average P5 schedule here is what we have but we are so used to several mickey mouse scrimmages that when we see an actual game against an opponent with a heartbeat, we automatically say what a hard game it is. It's supposed to be hard, to quote Tom Hanks, the tough is what makes it great. The less FIU and akron garbage on our schedule, the better.

I was directly responding to your "welcome to a real P5 schedule, we haven't seen one in awhile" comment. The fact is, we saw a difficult schedule this year, where PITT had some close losses against very good teams. You didn't mention the losses and opponents associated with those losses, but I thought this information was important to the discussion as an anecdote to the strength of PITT's schedule.

I'm glad that PITT is stepping up it's SOS with solid OOC scheduling unlike our neighbors to the East. Ultimately, the football team will get better from these experiencing (unless they perform like UVA the past couple of years), and attract more attention to the program.

Now if only the basketball team would follow the suit.

 

[kma0043]

After watching our secondary play pass defense this year the Ok St. game could get out of hand unless we possess the ball for 45 mins and never let them on the field.

 

[KennyTheKangaroo]

I don't see why anyone is waving the flag about pitt's strength of schedule this year.

Yes, we played a tough schedule, but we were 0-4 against teams in Saragrin's top 30 and our only win with a saragrin ranking better than ours was Louisville. Let the record show that the ville's saragrin ranking is 36 and ours is 40, so it was not the type of victory you can hang your hat on. If you can't beat the good teams that create a strong strength of schedule, what does that prove?

It is so ingrained in the pitt fan mentality that this program is bound to lose to a few crappy programs each year. By simply winning games against teams that were not as good as pitt, it has allowed pitt fans to dream mightily.

 

[OriginalEther]

ACC coastal is still the worst division in the P5 though.

Big Ten West is bad also.

And, FWIW, the Coastal went 10-5 against the Atlantic this season, with 3 of those losses coming against Clemson.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

Its a pretty exciting schedule by Pitt standards. More so if Pitt would have finished a bit stronger. I'm worried they give us Clemson after Ok St which could make a 1-3 start possible.

 

[UPitt '89]

The SEC East and the Big Ten West are both worse than the ACC

Its a pretty exciting schedule by Pitt standards. More so if Pitt would have finished a bit stronger. I'm worried they give us Clemson after Ok St which could make a 1-3 start possible.

Where do you get 1-3? Pitt isn't losing to PSU next year.

 

[H2Pittisit]

1-3 is definitely very possible with Marshall coming in if Clemson or Miami are the 4th game, but I don't think we see Clemson or Miami after Oklahoma St. That spot is generally reserved for Va Tech or Virginia in recent years and those are both very winnable with new coaches. It will all depend on who stays, who goes, who impresses, who gets injured by September. For all we know, we could have a Grad Transfer qb or WR.

 

[UPitt '89]

Marshall is the 5th game..... unless week 4 ends up being a bye. Pitt should go 3-1 in the OOC. The success of the season will be based on what they do in conference. 5-3 has to be the floor, with 6-2 or 7-1 being attainable if things fall right.

 

[bwh05]

Next years schedule was another dumb thing that SP did while at Pitt. No reason to play Marshall & OSU in the same year while you have PSU on the schedule

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Duke is trending down, they are like the ACC's version of Rutgers, had a few good years but that is ending. 8-4 is a good year though, I agree with you on that..

I get the RU comparison. Duke went from laughing stock to Top 15ish for a season or 2 now back to mediocrity. However, they have an excellent coach who wants to be there and are recruiting well. I think they are a legitimate 7-5 to 9-3 type of program and they'll never be an easy out.

 

[VAPITTALUM]

I don't see why anyone is waving the flag about pitt's strength of schedule this year.

Yes, we played a tough schedule, but we were 0-4 against teams in Saragrin's top 30 and our only win with a saragrin ranking better than ours was Louisville. Let the record show that the ville's saragrin ranking is 36 and ours is 40, so it was not the type of victory you can hang your hat on. If you can't beat the good teams that create a strong strength of schedule, what does that prove?

It is so ingrained in the pitt fan mentality that this program is bound to lose to a few crappy programs each year. By simply winning games against teams that were not as good as pitt, it has allowed pitt fans to dream mightily.

Why wouldn't the SOS for this year be discussed on this thread? The whole topic is based off of Sagarin's rankings for next year's schedule. This year provided a small sample of how the program stacks up against the tougher competition. While the record is certainly better than it has been in a few years, the record against the better opponents proves that the program has a long ways to go.

Now that the season is over, most PITT fans would agree that this year's team did not lose to "crappy programs" like they have in the recent past. That is something PITT can build off of.

I don't recall anyone in this thread beating their chests saying that PITT is ready to take over the college football landscape. Many posts run contrary to that belief.

 

[pittdan77]

Away schedule is pretty difficult.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

1-3 is definitely very possible with Marshall coming in if Clemson or Miami are the 4th game, but I don't think we see Clemson or Miami after Oklahoma St. That spot is generally reserved for Va Tech or Virginia in recent years and those are both very winnable with new coaches. It will all depend on who stays, who goes, who impresses, who gets injured by September. For all we know, we could have a Grad Transfer qb or WR.

Miami is our annual season-ender. It has to be by default. No way the ACC makes us go to Clemson after Stillwater. It'll probably just be our bye week.

 

[Swervin27]

Well if we are 1-3, then we are a bad team. If we play good teams and lose, then we are not good. If that happens, well it will show everyone that we need work. I don't see why some fans want to avoid or disguise this by scheduling weak OOC teams. I see fans say, let's schedule bad teams and get to 8 or 9 (or more) wins and their point or argument is, "we could easily lose 6 or 7 games." OK, but we could also win them. We could beat Ok State on the road, we could go 3-1 in our OOC and if that happens, it could be a magical year..

Just will never understand the idea of playing weak schedule to manipulate that 9th or 10th win. Everyone sees thru it, the people that matter anyways. National media would see thru it, bowl committees would see thru it, everyone but the die-hard apologists would see thru it.

 

[ncyajleel]

The combined records for next year's schedule for this year are 91 - 51 and only three teams had losing records, Georgia Tech, Virginia and Syracuse. I think that is incredible.

 

[Mtman 69]

After watching our secondary play pass defense this year the Ok St. game could get out of hand unless we possess the ball for 45 mins and never let them on the field.

Ok State will be a handful.....You will get to see a different beast than what you are used to......North Carolina who looked good all year played Big 12 Baylor and Baylor without a QB, their top running back, and their top wide receiver out embarrassed them........

 

[H2Pittisit]

I would have liked our chances versus Penn State better had they kept John Donovan. Narduzzi's defenses had trouble handling the spread offense even when at Michigan St. Penn State's hiring of Moorhead to run the spread creates matchup problems, because it will feature our linebackers in space against Barkley and Sanders. We will have to bring Whitehead up to help and we may be able to get away with it, but it will depend on how good their qb or who their qb is.
Our matchup advantage will be our Oline vs their Dline. I'm sure they will stack the line and make Peterman beat them. Right now, it's a tossup and will depend on Summer workouts, injuries, departures, etc.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Ok State will be a handful.....You will get to see a different beast than what you are used to......North Carolina who looked good all year played Big 12 Baylor and Baylor without a QB, their top running back, and their top wide receiver out embarrassed them........

Similarly, an LSU team that hadn't scored more than 20 points in a game since an October game with Western Kentucky dropped 56 points last night on a Big 12 defense.

The Big 12 certainly is a different beast.

 

[H2Pittisit]

Ok State will be a handful.....You will get to see a different beast than what you are used to......North Carolina who looked good all year played Big 12 Baylor and Baylor without a QB, their top running back, and their top wide receiver out embarrassed them........

I think you beat a team like that by lining up and being more physical, possessing the ball, not settling for FG's, getting a lead

 

[Swervin27]

I think you beat a team like that by lining up and being more physical, possessing the ball, not settling for FG's, getting a lead

so basically what the Ravens did to the steelers last sunday?

 

[OriginalEther]

Next years schedule was another dumb thing that SP did while at Pitt. No reason to play Marshall & OSU in the same year while you have PSU on the schedule

Huh?
Who would you suggest replacing those two squads with?

 

[bwh05]

Playing Marshall is dumb. Someone like Akron is much smarter

 

[rpost3]

Now that there is a man's schedule. Good thing Conner should be read to go and these supposed-All World defensive ends transfers are eligible. Expect Narduzzi find a way to work EJ Price in at OLB while the new DE's are on the field.
Don't be surprised if The U turns out to be the best team on that schedule. They looked awfully talented to me and now they have Richt to go with it.

 

[CaptainSidneyReilly]

"UPitt '89, post: 687881, member: 942"]...with this year's Sagarin rankings:

#3 Clemson (AWAY) Losing just 4 Senior Starters, QB is back!!! Loss!

#13 North Carolina (AWAY) Fedora has them playing better every year! Toss Up Loss!


#16 Oklahoma State (AWAY) Losing just 3 Senior Starters,, very tough away game? Loss!

#47 Virginia Tech New Coach with Good Talent, Toss Up!

#48 Penn State Most Team is back, but New OC & QB, but great DC, Toss Up!

#50 Miami (AWAY), New Coach with better talent, Loss!

#58 Duke, Toss Up Win!

#59 Georgia Tech, Mostly all back & QB, Toss Up!

#67 Marshall, Good Coach Tough Game, Win!

#75 Virginia (AWAY) New Coach & QB Back, Toss Up!

#80 Syracuse, New Coach, Never Easy Win, Toss UP!

#126 Villanova, WIN!

Pitt might have the hardest road schedule in all of the NCAA next year. Three Top 20 teams, average rankings of #31.
Clemson, OKSU, Miami, UNC Great Coaches & Talent?

Also, UVA, VT, and Cuse New Coaches and many Unknowns?

Penn State and Cuse Rivals never easy!

Duke, GT, and Marshall not easy wins?

We should be favored in every home game.... But if we win two road games, we should consider it an excellent season.
Agree if it happens?

Hopefully OkSt is not as good next year as this year and hopefully it takes a couple years before Bronco Mendenhall gets things going at UVa.
Check the Depth Chart of OKSU, better hope many Juniors leave, because many players back? UVA has Offense coming back with QB too!

That's a helluva tough schedule
If Pitt goes 8-4 I will be happy!

 

[H2Pittisit]

Best Case is a season like we just had.

Worst Case we never get rolling and have a Georgia Tech type of season.

 

[OriginalEther]

Playing Marshall is dumb. Someone like Akron is much smarter

I thought this board was clamoring not to play MAC teams.

 

[CaptainSidneyReilly]

"dionlewis28, post: 690548, member: 5284"]Best Case is a season like we just had. Worst Case we never get rolling and have a Georgia Tech type of season.
Hard to predict until Pitt gets its OC????

Could happen, Injuries always an unknown problem,,,,,but Pitt has many Experienced players back too!

I can see 6-6 as worst Case and nothing pass 8-4!

 

[CaptainSidneyReilly]

I thought this board was clamoring not to play MAC teams.

Some remnants of Pederson Poison, scheduled them in his last year before his firing?

 

[bwh05]

I thought this board was clamoring not to play MAC teams.

Not me, we need teams we can beat. Marshall is way too dangerous and the type of team you don't schedule when you have PSU, and OSU & Clemson on the road.

 

[OriginalEther]

Not me, we need teams we can beat. Marshall is way too dangerous and the type of team you don't schedule when you have PSU, and OSU & Clemson on the road.

Trust me, Pitt should be able to beat Marshall, especially at home.
Personally, if you want to fault SP for the schedule, fault him for agreeing to play at Oklahoma State the week after the psu game. The game screams letdown.

 

[bwh05]

Well I could see either Marshall or OSU, not both in the same season with where we are as a program & the rest of our schedule