ACC competition opens up with NC State, possibly the toughest ACC matchup we have, and the only ACC dual we lost last season. NC State has had an underwhelming year in terms of dual competition, 10-2 overall, but vs a much weaker schedule and losing their two matches against top 10 opponents. However, this is a matchup where we are definite underdogs and will need to swing some matches in our favor.
Preview:
125: #31 Camacho v. NR Trombley
Trombley is a 6th year season who has spent most of his career at 133. He was 125 last season and was the ACC champ and went 2-2 at NCAA's (all matches were close against great competition). He is 2-2 on the year with 3 of those matches coming up at 133. Jakob Camacho has been the starter for NC State all year and was ranked as high as number 1, but is currently out for some reason or Trombley has beat him out. Trombley beat Camacho in two last year, 10-5 and 11-8. That makes me want to give this match an NC State lean, but since Trombley has hardly wrestled all year and only wrestled at 125 one time I am not sold completely that he is up to the same level he was last season. TOSS UP
133: #20 Santaniello vs #6 Orine
Kai Orine is a returning AA who last season beat Mickey Philippi 2x. He is 8-2 on the season, but has lost his last two matches, to Fix and Bouzakis. Vinnie went 1-1 vs Bouzakis and lost to Fix. This is not an entirely unwinnable match for Vinnie, but I feel as if Orine's experience in these high profile matches will give him a definite edge. NCST Favored.
141: #27 Matthews vs #4 Jack
This is the toughest match in the dual meet for me to decipher. Jack has looked really good so far this season, while Cole has not looked nearly like his old self. Jack is 12-2 on the season with both his losses coming to tOSU's Jesse Mendez (who Cole beat). However, his wins list of Jamison, McNeil and Happel is very impressive and makes it clear that he is a high AA threat. What complicates it for me is this, Cole is 4-0 in his collegiate career against Ryan Jack. He has beat him in the dual and at ACC's for 2 consecutive years. Jack did beat Cole in a freestyle match this offseason, so it is not like he has never beaten him. However, the fact that this is such a one sided (but very close) historical matchup makes me think this will be match that comes down to the wire. TOSS UP
149: #29 Solomon vs #3 Arrington
Like CranberryPF said, this is the one to watch. Solomon transferred here from NC State after not being able to win the spot from Arrington. This is definitely a match he had circled on his calendar. Arrington has looked amazing this season, and he was a NCAA Blood Rd guy last year. He has only 1 loss on the year, to Dylan D'Emilio, that he avenged later on. Based only on the rankings and stats from the year he is the clear favorite. If that was all that mattered however, we would only use Wrestlestat and not actually wrestle the matches. Finn will have a lot to prove, as well as the fact that there is going to be a lot of familiarity between the two of them. I also have noticed that wrestlers who transfer away from a school often do good against them in the future, though obviously this is not always the case. Because of the history I can't accept this one as 1 sided. TOSS UP
157: NR Keslar vs #7 Scott
Ed Scott is a returning 5th place finisher who is 15-3 on the season. He has taken some strange losses, but also has some very solid wins. He is an amazing upper body wrestler and if Keslar gets into those big exchanges he saw vs Teemer I am not optimistic for the outcome. This is a spot where we wanna keep it close and try to steal something late as Scott is prone to being upset occasionally. NCST Favored.
FIRST HALF: 0 Pitt Favored, 3 Toss Up, 2 NCST Favored.
This first half is going to set the tone for the entire dual, we could be winning at half or we could be getting shut out and I wouldn't be surprised either way. Hopefully the toss ups go our favor and/or we possibly sneak an upset
165: #14 Heller vs #16 Fields
This match is crucial for Pitt, we are favored and Holden needs a win to get back on track. Unfortunately it is far from a sure thing. The Heller we saw vs ASU (Fields majored that kid) likely doesn't get the job done, but the Holden that has wrestled most of the year can absolutely beat him. Fields is 10-2 and based on his ranking appears to be the starter. However, AJ Kovacs is also listed on the probable, and he is 8-6 this year. If he goes I would favor Holden, but I expect to see Fields in a close one. TOSS UP
174: #17 Augustine vs #31 Faison
Faison beat Luca both times they faced off last season, however Luca has looked better so far this season, winning matches against guys that beat Faison. Specifically, Wask and Thompson beat Faison but lost to Luca. Faison has lost 3 of his last 4 and appears to be in a slump, however his 2-0 record vs Luca last year makes me hesitant to declare this a one-sided contest. TOSS UP
184: #12 Heller vs #7 Fishback
Fishback is 12-4 on the year with all his losses coming in close matches. 2 of his losses are to the top 2 in the country and the other 2 losses are to guys ranked in the top 15. He is a stud redshirt freshman who has made a huge jump this year from last. I think Reece has a real shot in this match if he wrestles his best and doesn't get out of control at all, but we all know how risky his style can be. I am very interested to see if he can make something big happen and pull off another win vs a top 8 guy. This will be a huge measuring stick for ACC's. TOSS UP
197: #13 Stout vs # 4 Hidlay
Hidlay is a 3x AA who has placed as high as 2nd at 184. In his first year at 197 he has looked great, going 16-0 so far and dominating top guys such as Cardenas and Beard. Mac has a lot on his plate here, and will need to get likely mutiple takedowns to win this as Hidlay has been held under 10 points or a fall in only 1 match this season. Seeing him here could hopefully help close the gap by ACC's and NCAA's. NCST Favored.
285: NR Magin vs #14 Trephan
Magin is yet to compete this season and it is his first year at HWT. Trephan made the rd16 at NCAA's last year and beat Pitzer. I would hope Magin can slow this match down and try to avoid any bonus, maybe shoc the world. NCST Favored.
2nd Half: 0 Pitt Favored, 3 Toss Up, 2 NCST Favored
Similar story as the first half, where it could go a variety of ways. Assuming we start at 125 we need to have a significant lead going into 197 for it to be comfortable. I am very nervous but also excited to see these matchups, which will likely be repeated at ACC's
Overall: We can win this dual and we can get shut out. Neither would really shock me. The team if they come ready to wrestle like they have at times they can pull off some upsets (by national rankings) and win the rest of the toss ups to take the dual. If they show up the way they did vs OKST, Navy and Little Rock I would expect NCST to score over 30 points on us. Can't wait for this one, could give us a real shot at another ACC Dual title if we win.
Preview:
125: #31 Camacho v. NR Trombley
Trombley is a 6th year season who has spent most of his career at 133. He was 125 last season and was the ACC champ and went 2-2 at NCAA's (all matches were close against great competition). He is 2-2 on the year with 3 of those matches coming up at 133. Jakob Camacho has been the starter for NC State all year and was ranked as high as number 1, but is currently out for some reason or Trombley has beat him out. Trombley beat Camacho in two last year, 10-5 and 11-8. That makes me want to give this match an NC State lean, but since Trombley has hardly wrestled all year and only wrestled at 125 one time I am not sold completely that he is up to the same level he was last season. TOSS UP
133: #20 Santaniello vs #6 Orine
Kai Orine is a returning AA who last season beat Mickey Philippi 2x. He is 8-2 on the season, but has lost his last two matches, to Fix and Bouzakis. Vinnie went 1-1 vs Bouzakis and lost to Fix. This is not an entirely unwinnable match for Vinnie, but I feel as if Orine's experience in these high profile matches will give him a definite edge. NCST Favored.
141: #27 Matthews vs #4 Jack
This is the toughest match in the dual meet for me to decipher. Jack has looked really good so far this season, while Cole has not looked nearly like his old self. Jack is 12-2 on the season with both his losses coming to tOSU's Jesse Mendez (who Cole beat). However, his wins list of Jamison, McNeil and Happel is very impressive and makes it clear that he is a high AA threat. What complicates it for me is this, Cole is 4-0 in his collegiate career against Ryan Jack. He has beat him in the dual and at ACC's for 2 consecutive years. Jack did beat Cole in a freestyle match this offseason, so it is not like he has never beaten him. However, the fact that this is such a one sided (but very close) historical matchup makes me think this will be match that comes down to the wire. TOSS UP
149: #29 Solomon vs #3 Arrington
Like CranberryPF said, this is the one to watch. Solomon transferred here from NC State after not being able to win the spot from Arrington. This is definitely a match he had circled on his calendar. Arrington has looked amazing this season, and he was a NCAA Blood Rd guy last year. He has only 1 loss on the year, to Dylan D'Emilio, that he avenged later on. Based only on the rankings and stats from the year he is the clear favorite. If that was all that mattered however, we would only use Wrestlestat and not actually wrestle the matches. Finn will have a lot to prove, as well as the fact that there is going to be a lot of familiarity between the two of them. I also have noticed that wrestlers who transfer away from a school often do good against them in the future, though obviously this is not always the case. Because of the history I can't accept this one as 1 sided. TOSS UP
157: NR Keslar vs #7 Scott
Ed Scott is a returning 5th place finisher who is 15-3 on the season. He has taken some strange losses, but also has some very solid wins. He is an amazing upper body wrestler and if Keslar gets into those big exchanges he saw vs Teemer I am not optimistic for the outcome. This is a spot where we wanna keep it close and try to steal something late as Scott is prone to being upset occasionally. NCST Favored.
FIRST HALF: 0 Pitt Favored, 3 Toss Up, 2 NCST Favored.
This first half is going to set the tone for the entire dual, we could be winning at half or we could be getting shut out and I wouldn't be surprised either way. Hopefully the toss ups go our favor and/or we possibly sneak an upset
165: #14 Heller vs #16 Fields
This match is crucial for Pitt, we are favored and Holden needs a win to get back on track. Unfortunately it is far from a sure thing. The Heller we saw vs ASU (Fields majored that kid) likely doesn't get the job done, but the Holden that has wrestled most of the year can absolutely beat him. Fields is 10-2 and based on his ranking appears to be the starter. However, AJ Kovacs is also listed on the probable, and he is 8-6 this year. If he goes I would favor Holden, but I expect to see Fields in a close one. TOSS UP
174: #17 Augustine vs #31 Faison
Faison beat Luca both times they faced off last season, however Luca has looked better so far this season, winning matches against guys that beat Faison. Specifically, Wask and Thompson beat Faison but lost to Luca. Faison has lost 3 of his last 4 and appears to be in a slump, however his 2-0 record vs Luca last year makes me hesitant to declare this a one-sided contest. TOSS UP
184: #12 Heller vs #7 Fishback
Fishback is 12-4 on the year with all his losses coming in close matches. 2 of his losses are to the top 2 in the country and the other 2 losses are to guys ranked in the top 15. He is a stud redshirt freshman who has made a huge jump this year from last. I think Reece has a real shot in this match if he wrestles his best and doesn't get out of control at all, but we all know how risky his style can be. I am very interested to see if he can make something big happen and pull off another win vs a top 8 guy. This will be a huge measuring stick for ACC's. TOSS UP
197: #13 Stout vs # 4 Hidlay
Hidlay is a 3x AA who has placed as high as 2nd at 184. In his first year at 197 he has looked great, going 16-0 so far and dominating top guys such as Cardenas and Beard. Mac has a lot on his plate here, and will need to get likely mutiple takedowns to win this as Hidlay has been held under 10 points or a fall in only 1 match this season. Seeing him here could hopefully help close the gap by ACC's and NCAA's. NCST Favored.
285: NR Magin vs #14 Trephan
Magin is yet to compete this season and it is his first year at HWT. Trephan made the rd16 at NCAA's last year and beat Pitzer. I would hope Magin can slow this match down and try to avoid any bonus, maybe shoc the world. NCST Favored.
2nd Half: 0 Pitt Favored, 3 Toss Up, 2 NCST Favored
Similar story as the first half, where it could go a variety of ways. Assuming we start at 125 we need to have a significant lead going into 197 for it to be comfortable. I am very nervous but also excited to see these matchups, which will likely be repeated at ACC's
Overall: We can win this dual and we can get shut out. Neither would really shock me. The team if they come ready to wrestle like they have at times they can pull off some upsets (by national rankings) and win the rest of the toss ups to take the dual. If they show up the way they did vs OKST, Navy and Little Rock I would expect NCST to score over 30 points on us. Can't wait for this one, could give us a real shot at another ACC Dual title if we win.
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