Guys. I keep saying it. Total number of wins don't matter. It's quality of wins vs bad losses. That's why 27-4 SoCon teams don't get at large bids while 18-12 P6 schools do. Saying we need X number of non con wins isn't right.
I do agree you need to adjust your non con schedule to the composition of your team. A FR dominated team you probably should play more cupcakes. But a team like Pitt that we believe should have NCCAT aspirations, a schedule that will maximize the chance for Q1 and Q2 wins. Duquesne is a chance for a Q2 win (if we play them at home or bordeline Q1 if we play them at PPG.
Even though the ACC is going to 20 games it doesn't mean we'll get 2 more opportunities for quality wins. The schedule is made towards TV. And unless the powers to be think we are top 8. Our 2 extra games will most likely be against teams predicted to finish in the bottom half of the league.
So in order to get quality wins in the non con. You either do home and homes. Play schools on the road. That Duquesne wants to play at the Pete for free is a gift.
You are correct on total number of wins not mattering--
but only up to a point. Your specific example is correct. However, it is entirely possible to have a very strong team play a very very tough schedule and wind up around 0.500 and be left out of even the NIT while a relatively weaker team gets into the post season because they finished enough games over 0.500.
For example, your hypothetical 18-12 P6 team might at least get to the NIT while a hypothetically stronger P6 team that played a tougher OOC schedule that put them at 15-15 or 16-14 will stay home. The W-L records will matter when comparing P6 teams that all have 18-19 total wins or less and I expect Pitt to fall in that category even if they manage to go 9-2 or better OOC.
Concerning
expecting Pitt to be an NCAA tournament contender this coming season---Sure, we all hope that will prove to be the case. But, realistically, should we really believe it?
Many (most?) fans on this board believe our starters (at least early season) will be Brown, Toney, Champagnie, Horton and Johnson. Although there have been glowing reports as to how great Horton looked in practice none of us have seen him play in a Pitt uniform. We don't know if he will provide any more to the team overall (offense and defensive contributions combined) than McGowens did.
We also have no idea whether Hugley, as a true freshman (especially early in the season), will provide as much or more than Hamilton did last year. Given this assessment, which I believe a neutral outside observer would make, this year's team would have a hard time winning more games than last season. It can certainly be hoped that won't be the case because it would be a disappointment. But, IMHO, there is no guarantee that Hugley and the other freshmen will be able to make the W-L record any better given that they are just true freshmen.
Finally, regarding playing Duquesne--even at home--means playing a team that is on paper Pitt's equal (based on end of last season's Sagarin ratings and both team's returning players). At home Pitt's only advantage is its home court advantage (about 3-points) and it is probably offset by this game being such a big deal to Duquesne and not so much to Pitt.
Bottom line, I stand by my belief that Pitt has more to lose playing this game this year than it stands to gain. In the longer term I don't mind it coming back regularly or almost regularly.
Caveat: I might think differently, perhaps, if the game were to be scheduled for late January or early February because I do expect the freshmen to be making a difference by then that I don't believe they will be making around the beginning of December when the City Game has typically been played.