There's no way of knowing exactly where our Panthers sit in the College Football Playoff rankings, but we entered the week at #31 in the AP and #33 in the Coaches' Poll. Reasonable to assume we're in the same general range in the CFP standings.
Given that we're playing a lousy Syracuse team this week, we're unlikely to leapfrog teams just based on the outcome of our game. We need 6-8 teams in front of us to drop their contests. We've already had highly improbable good luck with Friday games going in our favor. Based on point spreads, there was less than a 1% chance (0.66% to be exact) that NC State, Washington, Iowa, Memphis, and Air Force would all win their games -- thankfully, that all happened. Add the Missouri-Arkansas game in and it's an astounding 0.17% likelihood that the team we need wins each of those games.
So, when we include Thursday's LSU-A&M game, it's reasonable to believe we've already jumped 6 spots -- naturally, this assumes we win on Saturday.
Here's the full run-down of games that are of interest to us. We probably need 2 or 3 of the remaining games to go our way to be confident we'll be ranked this week.
Team we want to win in green.
------ To be played: ------
Rice at Stanford
Betting line suggest there's literally zero chance this happens. Stanford would surely get leapfrogged if it did, though. I'm cheering for the Rice... Uncle Ben's? Whatever the hell their mascot is, I'm behind it.
Florida at Florida State
See USC and Auburn. Unless this one's ugly, I doubt the loser drops 10+ spots, which is what we'd need. Root for a blowout either way, ideally with a key injury or two (I hate myself for even typing it). 73% odds that the 'Noles roll.
------ Games that have already played: ------
LSU at Texas A&M -- Result: LSU, +1 spot
A five-loss LSU would have definitely dropped below Pitt. Unfortunately, LSU won this one. I'm hopeful that A&M drops far enough for us to climb a position -- they've lost 3 of their last 4 and 4 of their last 6. Hard to justify A&M outranking Pitt.
Houston at Memphis -- Result: Memphis, +1 spot
Houston should drop from #20 to out of the rankings. No chance a 4-loss Memphis leaps us. Great result that had only a 36.9% chance of occurring based on the betting line.
NC State at UNC -- Result: NC State, +1 spot
The upset of the day. The Wolfpack had a 20.1% chance of winning this one based on the betting line. They did us a solid by knocking UNC down a peg. Bad loss for the Tarheels, and we definitely jump a position as a result.
Nebraska at Iowa -- Result: Iowa, +1 spot
There's a certain amount of risk in the outcome of this game -- pollsters could be enamored with Iowa's past two weeks and use this win to have them jump Pitt. We're both 4 loss teams with top-5 wins. Our PSU win (common opponent they lost to) is better than their Nebraska win, and we don't have the bad losses they do. Blind resume, we're better. Other element of risk here is that Nebraska doesn't drop 9+ spots. They don't have any great wins. I think they take a tumble. There's a chance we're screwed here and this actually ends up a -1 spot, though. Note, there was a 53.4% chance of Iowa winning this game.
Washington at Washington State -- Result: Washington, +1 spot
A loss by the #23 team in the CFP rankings means we should definitely jump them, even with that loss coming at the hands of a top-5 team. This game had a 66.4.% chance of ending in our favor.
Boise State at Air Force -- Result: Air Force, +1 spot
Boise should plummet from #19. Easy to see us passing them. Again, some risk that a 9-3 Air Force team gets too much credit for this win and vaults us. Counting on the CFP committee to be smarter than to lean heavily on this one game. Air Force had the second biggest upset of the day, with only a 25% chance of victory based on the spread.
Missouri at Arkansas -- Result: Missouri, +.5 spot
An under the radar game, since neither team is ranked. Arkansas was a vote siphon, though -- potentially keeping us off people's ballots. They're at 32 in both the AP and Coaches' poll. Ahead of us in one, behind in the other. Think of this as a half a spot gain with Mizzou pulling out the upset win (26.2% chance of winning).
Toledo at Western Michigan -- Result: Western Michigan, no improvement
They can't all break our way. The betting line suggested only a 29.7% chance Toledo would win. Amazingly, this was the only Friday game that didn't end up in our favor.
UCF at South Florida -- Result: South Florida, no improvement
South Florida is just ahead of us in the AP and Coaches' polls. I'm assuming they're also outpacing us in the hypothetical CFP also receiving votes section. UCF could be our knight in shining armor (I hate myself for making that pun) by knocking off the Bulls. Betting line suggest only a 22.6% chance it happens.
Virginia at Virginia Tech -- Result: VT, no improvement
VT isn't ranked, but they're ahead of us in the ARV and have the head to head win. There's a 3.8% chance UVA pulls this out. Chokies, I'ma need you to lay down on this one.
Kentucky at Louisville -- Result, KENTUCKY?! still likely no improvement
Following their collapse at Houston with an improbable (as in, betting line says 0%) loss to a 26.5 point dog? Might just be enough to drop Louisville 14+ spots. Not really sure why I even put this on here.
Navy at SMU -- Result: Navy, no improvement
Navy's currently ranked #25. We leap them if they lose. No risk a 6-loss SMU team takes votes from us. SMU has a 29.7% chance at winning (based on the betting line).
Minnesota at Wisconsin -- Result: Wisconsin, +.5 position
Coach Chryst can do us a favor and mumble past the Gophers, eliminating a vote siphon. Betting line says 85.1% chance this goes our way.
WVU at Iowa State -- Result: WVU, no improvement
No one needs to be told to root against WVU. A loss to 3-8 Iowa State is likely enough to get them to tumble from #18 to oblivion. Go get it, Cyclones. 32.3% chance couches in Morgantown burn.
Notre Dame at USC -- Result: USC, no improvement
This one's a reach (so is the next one), but I'm throwing it in anyway. Is losing to a 7-loss Notre Dame bad enough to cost USC 12 spots in the polls? Highly doubt it, but at least it makes them potentially passable after the bowl games. Serious long shot. 8.6% chance ND wins.
Auburn at Alabama -- Result: Alabama, still likely no improvement
A 4-loss Auburn team will still likely be ranked around #20. Hopefully they get blown out and drop heavily as a result. More realistically, same deal as USC -- this would just make them passable after bowl season. Added bonus, this result helps keep PSU out of the playoff picture. 93.7% chance Alabama wins.
Duke at Miami -- Result: Miami, no improvement
Duke only has a 12.6% chance of winning this game, and it's not hugely important -- we're already ahead of Miami in both the AP and Coaches' Poll... this is just an insurance game to keep someone from siphoning votes from us.
Tennessee at Vanderbilt -- Result: Vanderbilt, +1 position
Only a 27% chance that Vandy defeats in-state foe Tennessee. It would probably be a bad enough loss to drop them 8+ spots. Go Commodores.
Utah at Colorado -- Result: Colorado, +1 position
Utah's ranked #22. A loss almost assuredly drops them out of the top 25. Betting line says a 77.4% chance the Buffaloes stampede. Definite +1 for us if that happens.
Given that we're playing a lousy Syracuse team this week, we're unlikely to leapfrog teams just based on the outcome of our game. We need 6-8 teams in front of us to drop their contests. We've already had highly improbable good luck with Friday games going in our favor. Based on point spreads, there was less than a 1% chance (0.66% to be exact) that NC State, Washington, Iowa, Memphis, and Air Force would all win their games -- thankfully, that all happened. Add the Missouri-Arkansas game in and it's an astounding 0.17% likelihood that the team we need wins each of those games.
So, when we include Thursday's LSU-A&M game, it's reasonable to believe we've already jumped 6 spots -- naturally, this assumes we win on Saturday.
Here's the full run-down of games that are of interest to us. We probably need 2 or 3 of the remaining games to go our way to be confident we'll be ranked this week.
Team we want to win in green.
------ To be played: ------
Rice at Stanford
Betting line suggest there's literally zero chance this happens. Stanford would surely get leapfrogged if it did, though. I'm cheering for the Rice... Uncle Ben's? Whatever the hell their mascot is, I'm behind it.
Florida at Florida State
See USC and Auburn. Unless this one's ugly, I doubt the loser drops 10+ spots, which is what we'd need. Root for a blowout either way, ideally with a key injury or two (I hate myself for even typing it). 73% odds that the 'Noles roll.
------ Games that have already played: ------
LSU at Texas A&M -- Result: LSU, +1 spot
A five-loss LSU would have definitely dropped below Pitt. Unfortunately, LSU won this one. I'm hopeful that A&M drops far enough for us to climb a position -- they've lost 3 of their last 4 and 4 of their last 6. Hard to justify A&M outranking Pitt.
Houston at Memphis -- Result: Memphis, +1 spot
Houston should drop from #20 to out of the rankings. No chance a 4-loss Memphis leaps us. Great result that had only a 36.9% chance of occurring based on the betting line.
NC State at UNC -- Result: NC State, +1 spot
The upset of the day. The Wolfpack had a 20.1% chance of winning this one based on the betting line. They did us a solid by knocking UNC down a peg. Bad loss for the Tarheels, and we definitely jump a position as a result.
Nebraska at Iowa -- Result: Iowa, +1 spot
There's a certain amount of risk in the outcome of this game -- pollsters could be enamored with Iowa's past two weeks and use this win to have them jump Pitt. We're both 4 loss teams with top-5 wins. Our PSU win (common opponent they lost to) is better than their Nebraska win, and we don't have the bad losses they do. Blind resume, we're better. Other element of risk here is that Nebraska doesn't drop 9+ spots. They don't have any great wins. I think they take a tumble. There's a chance we're screwed here and this actually ends up a -1 spot, though. Note, there was a 53.4% chance of Iowa winning this game.
Washington at Washington State -- Result: Washington, +1 spot
A loss by the #23 team in the CFP rankings means we should definitely jump them, even with that loss coming at the hands of a top-5 team. This game had a 66.4.% chance of ending in our favor.
Boise State at Air Force -- Result: Air Force, +1 spot
Boise should plummet from #19. Easy to see us passing them. Again, some risk that a 9-3 Air Force team gets too much credit for this win and vaults us. Counting on the CFP committee to be smarter than to lean heavily on this one game. Air Force had the second biggest upset of the day, with only a 25% chance of victory based on the spread.
Missouri at Arkansas -- Result: Missouri, +.5 spot
An under the radar game, since neither team is ranked. Arkansas was a vote siphon, though -- potentially keeping us off people's ballots. They're at 32 in both the AP and Coaches' poll. Ahead of us in one, behind in the other. Think of this as a half a spot gain with Mizzou pulling out the upset win (26.2% chance of winning).
Toledo at Western Michigan -- Result: Western Michigan, no improvement
They can't all break our way. The betting line suggested only a 29.7% chance Toledo would win. Amazingly, this was the only Friday game that didn't end up in our favor.
UCF at South Florida -- Result: South Florida, no improvement
South Florida is just ahead of us in the AP and Coaches' polls. I'm assuming they're also outpacing us in the hypothetical CFP also receiving votes section. UCF could be our knight in shining armor (I hate myself for making that pun) by knocking off the Bulls. Betting line suggest only a 22.6% chance it happens.
Virginia at Virginia Tech -- Result: VT, no improvement
VT isn't ranked, but they're ahead of us in the ARV and have the head to head win. There's a 3.8% chance UVA pulls this out. Chokies, I'ma need you to lay down on this one.
Kentucky at Louisville -- Result, KENTUCKY?! still likely no improvement
Following their collapse at Houston with an improbable (as in, betting line says 0%) loss to a 26.5 point dog? Might just be enough to drop Louisville 14+ spots. Not really sure why I even put this on here.
Navy at SMU -- Result: Navy, no improvement
Navy's currently ranked #25. We leap them if they lose. No risk a 6-loss SMU team takes votes from us. SMU has a 29.7% chance at winning (based on the betting line).
Minnesota at Wisconsin -- Result: Wisconsin, +.5 position
Coach Chryst can do us a favor and mumble past the Gophers, eliminating a vote siphon. Betting line says 85.1% chance this goes our way.
WVU at Iowa State -- Result: WVU, no improvement
No one needs to be told to root against WVU. A loss to 3-8 Iowa State is likely enough to get them to tumble from #18 to oblivion. Go get it, Cyclones. 32.3% chance couches in Morgantown burn.
Notre Dame at USC -- Result: USC, no improvement
This one's a reach (so is the next one), but I'm throwing it in anyway. Is losing to a 7-loss Notre Dame bad enough to cost USC 12 spots in the polls? Highly doubt it, but at least it makes them potentially passable after the bowl games. Serious long shot. 8.6% chance ND wins.
Auburn at Alabama -- Result: Alabama, still likely no improvement
A 4-loss Auburn team will still likely be ranked around #20. Hopefully they get blown out and drop heavily as a result. More realistically, same deal as USC -- this would just make them passable after bowl season. Added bonus, this result helps keep PSU out of the playoff picture. 93.7% chance Alabama wins.
Duke at Miami -- Result: Miami, no improvement
Duke only has a 12.6% chance of winning this game, and it's not hugely important -- we're already ahead of Miami in both the AP and Coaches' Poll... this is just an insurance game to keep someone from siphoning votes from us.
Tennessee at Vanderbilt -- Result: Vanderbilt, +1 position
Only a 27% chance that Vandy defeats in-state foe Tennessee. It would probably be a bad enough loss to drop them 8+ spots. Go Commodores.
Utah at Colorado -- Result: Colorado, +1 position
Utah's ranked #22. A loss almost assuredly drops them out of the top 25. Betting line says a 77.4% chance the Buffaloes stampede. Definite +1 for us if that happens.
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