Oka how many wins does Pitt get this year?
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Well, as I posted earlier in another thread--
Sagarin's computer predicts vs Pitt's schedule a regular season record of 10-1 OOC and 10-8 ACC = 20-9 heading into ACC tourney. That result is for Pitt currently rated by the Sagarin computer as the #25 team (#6 in ACC). That probably means at least 1-1 ACC tourney for 21-10. Perhaps a #25 rating gets a #1- 7-seed which means you play the worst #10 seed (#40 team). That gets you a win theoretically but you lose the next one theoretically to a #5 seed.
So its 20-9 + 1-1 + 1-1 = 22-11 after losing in the NCAA round of 32.
Sagarin's computer predicts vs Pitt's schedule a regular season record of 10-1 OOC and 10-8 ACC = 20-9 heading into ACC tourney. That result is for Pitt currently rated by the Sagarin computer as the #25 team (#6 in ACC). That probably means at least 1-1 ACC tourney for 21-10. Perhaps a #25 rating gets a #1- 7-seed which means you play the worst #10 seed (#40 team). That gets you a win theoretically but you lose the next one theoretically to a #5 seed.
So its 20-9 + 1-1 + 1-1 = 22-11 after losing in the NCAA round of 32.
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Before the season, I said 22 regular season wins and a sweet 16 appearance. I can't stray from that now.
My biggest concern for my prediction is Gonzaga dropping from the schedule and us losing to Purdue. What this means to me and my prediction is the potential to be underseeded in the NCAA tourney due to no OOC resume. So a lower seed for us means a difficult 2nd round NCAA game (aka Florida from 2 years back). My sweet 16 prediction will be tough--unless we kill it in the ACC or the ACC tourney.
My biggest concern for my prediction is Gonzaga dropping from the schedule and us losing to Purdue. What this means to me and my prediction is the potential to be underseeded in the NCAA tourney due to no OOC resume. So a lower seed for us means a difficult 2nd round NCAA game (aka Florida from 2 years back). My sweet 16 prediction will be tough--unless we kill it in the ACC or the ACC tourney.
My guess is same as yours with the exception of a loss in the Round of 32. I don't see us getting too favorable a position in the seeding due to the past years' tournament performance. Probably a 7 seed, and then losing to a 2.
My hope lies in that I believe we haven't peaked and without peaking are still already roughly just at or inside the top 25. So, I think we may exceed what our current Sagarin rating predicts and maybe wind up closer to the top 10-15 range by season's end. That would probably mean something like 3-5 more wins for 25-27 total wins. We shall see. It will certainly be interesting.
22 wins and sweet 16 is exactly my call too.
Then we can listen to the "fire Jamie because he didn't get us to the elite 8" fans .
What's the minimal win total we need for the tournament? I say 19 gets us in.
I predict 23 regular season + ACCT wins
I predict 23 regular season + ACCT wins
We are no better of a team than last yr. we can score a little, have streaky outside shooting, but can't defend on the inside whatsoever.
We'll beat the cupcakes and majority of the lower ACC teams but the upper tier who have quality big men will expose our lack of an inside presence for yet another year.
It's always nice to get an absolutely ABSURD post that even I (lol) can respond to.
We are much better off at SG and C with Smith and Maia than we were last year with Wright and Randall/Uchebo, and everyone else in the starting lineup is improved.
If Dixon can figure out how to get Jeter a regular slot in the rotation (of around 20 minutes) and Jones starts putting his shots in the hoop instead of leaving them short.... we could be a VERY good team. And, Wilson, Slim, Nelson-Ododa and Luther have potential to make an impact as well.
The goals are to win the ACC Tourney and, if not a national championship, at least a final four appearance.
I guess it is possible.
Yea. I agree. Wright was a "shooting guard" that couldn't shoot. Kind of a problem.
Only problem with this narrative, which is very common on the board, is that statistically, it is incorrect. Wright plus either Jones or Newkirk last season outscored Smith plus Jones this season. Smith is a much better 3-pt shooter but he is averaging 3 ppg less than Wright.
I've never understood the hate for Wright.His overall shooting percentage is identical to Brad Wanamaker and his last two seasons he averaged 10.5 and 9.3 ppg, the later being depressed by a token 2 minute stint vs. Duquesne in his first game back from the broken foot.
I'm happy we signed Smith. I hope he csn duplicate his Coppin St. numbers as the season goes on. But Wright basically averaged double figures in the ACC his finsl two seasons. That deservesxa littke more respect thsn he gets on here.
That's about what I figure. The 4 seed only happens if we avoid bad losses and pull an upset or two. A 4 seed suggests top 20-25 ranking. Our "downward spiral" may have stalled out. Don't doubt JD.
Too many folks equate "shooting" with 3-point accuracy (or volume). Cam was better than most realized.
Looking a lot
-Wright shot 50% from the free throw line. And 20% from 3 point range. And I think Smith's scoring average is about to increase from here on out. Smith also averages 5 rebounds per game, and 2 assists per game. And Smith is only playing 21 minutes per game.
I think we are better because I think the defense is better. Last year, bad teams still shot 48% against Pitt. While this team looks great offensively, they will go only as far as their d and rebounding take them. I would be pretty thrilled with sweet 16.
It's about a lot more than points per game though. Wright was using 22.3% of the possessions when he was in the game, Smith is at 12.2. So there's pretty much your whole difference in points per game (and then some) right there. And the difference in shooting the ball is enormous. Wright made four threes all season. Smith has made three threes in a game four times already this season. If you look at their offensive ratings, Wright last season was at 94.9. That means a below average D1 player, pretty far below for a P5 player. Smith so far is at 148.0. That makes him fifth best in the country. It's too early to make any definitive declarations about defense, but Wright's defense obviously took a step back last season, assumedly because of the injury. It certainly isn't a stretch to think that Smith will be a better defender this season than Wright was last season. And even if the defense is just kind of close, the huge advantage Smith has in offense (so far) makes him a much better player this season than Wright was last season.
It's too early to say for sure, but if things continue on the way they have gone so far Smith will be a huge upgrade on what we got from Wright last season.
Agree, Smith is a fairly decent upgrade over Cam Wright. He can shoot the three and has a good looking shot in general (plus, they go down).
GO PITT
You are either an extremely negative person or u might want to get a vision test.
Wilson - good, young player
Smith - a clear upgrade at SG
Maia and ANO > Centers last year
Young and Robinson - playing better this year
Luther, Jones, Artis, Jeter - making improvements
C. Johnson - healthy this year
Other than that - pretty much the same.
I'll agree that C Wright wasn't a very good deep threat ,but his jumper around the key was money. He brought more to the table than the 3 pt shot. At this point it does appear that Pitts outside shooting will be better and there's more talent on this years team, but before we anoint them to the elite eight lets them play a few more games against quality opponents their record is 1/2 -1 1/2 against real D1 opponents.
Smith can shoot the three ball and rebound. He certainly appears to be an upgrade over last year's Cam Wright, but last year's Wright was hobbled by his broken foot. He was a shell of himself defensively.
Cam Wright's senior year has to be taken in context. Much of the year, Wright had little choice but have a high usage, because few of the other backcourt players were taking shots. His usage was uncharacteristically high because he tried to put the team on his back.
He WAS our most effective offensive backcourt player last season. Durand was suspended. Newkirk basically didn't show up. JRob had a bad season shooting. Chris Jones was very inconsistent. Wright was asked to do more than he could do. I do agree that is a role he was not suited for, but I applaud him for at least making the attempt. I stand behind the argument I presented denying that we didn't get shooting from the 2G last year. His overall shooting percentage was very respectable, better than Brad's and only a bit worse than Sterlig Smith's rate against Coppin State's weaker schedule.
Wright was not a star. He wasn't recruited to be a star. Had our roster been better, he would have been more suited as a role player, a 6th or 7th man off the bench at wing. Instead too often he became a main option, leadng the team in scoring some games, which I doubt Smith will be asked to do. Nobody expects Smith to take the big shot or even to be an impact player. He's the 4th option. I'm very happy he's here but it IS a different role.
There were plenty of guys with more potential here who produced less, but don't draw the criticism Wright does. Sometimes our fanbase is dumb.
The fact that he was no threat to make a three had a huge impact on the offense overall. Every team sagged off him, which of course resulted in issues running the offense effectively and getting the ball inside.
Cam definitely had a fine midrange game and would have been perfect as a hustle guy off the bench -I suspect the fans would have loved him in that role. It's a shame his career had to go the way it did because he seemed like a good kid, smart kid and good representative of the university.
We just have to hope that Smith can continue to shoot well, which not only will produce points for him, but also allow the rest of the to operate with more space.
Wright shot 462 from the floor last year, with 211 from 3 point land, and 507 from the line.
Smith, is shooting 552 from the floor, 609 from 3 point land, and 1000 (6 for 6) from the line.
So, yeah, Wright scored 2 PPG more than Smith right now, but he was putting up a LOT more misses.. and misses are almost like turnovers.
But, the big thing about Wright, because he posed no threat from the 3 point line, it allowed other teams to crunch up on our inside players like Young and Artis. Having Smith at SG makes things MUCH better for our inside players now.
The thing that bugged me about Wright the most though, was that he THOUGHT he was such a great player.. When asked about going into the starting lineup his junior year his response what they he should have been starting before that. Yeah, be brought it in practice and with that he thought he was great... but couldn't do much when the clock was ticking.
Bottom line.... a shooting guard that cannot put in a 3 ball is a LOSER and we are better off without Cam Wright.
IMO Wanamaker was one of the greatest Pitt players ever... while Wright is more like... who?
It is not a good comparison anyways... as Wright was 'supposedly' a SG while Wanamaker was essentially a PG. Gibbs brought the ball up the court but then got it to Wanamaker who initiated the offense.. and Wanamaker didn't have to put in many 3 balls considering who was playing next to him (Gibbs put in 102 that year... a #1 seed NCAA team).
I miss Brad Wanamaker. A great glue guy.
I felt 22 was a push before the season. I think they are 20-9. 2-1 ACC Tournament. 6 seed. 2-1 in the big dance.
I felt 22 was a push before the season. I think they are 20-9. 2-1 ACC Tournament. 6 seed. 2-1 in the big dance.
Geno!! How are you??? Well, I hope. Will we see you for a game or two this year?? Playing at a nice pace, not RAGO, but surely not PHCO. It's rare for them to go much beyond 10 seconds on the clock. Perhaps that'll change a bit against ACC teams, though we were OK vs. Purdue, just couldn't knock them down.
Hope to see you....my wife actually asked about you the last game.
Merry Christmas!
Cam was our best defensive player his junior year. He was a different player last year. Much less effective on both offense and defense. His broken foot had to be a difference.
He was asked to do too much. He had a defective shooting form that never improved much. I don't understand how someone who worked so hard could not modestly improve his shot.
He was asked to do too much. He had a defective shooting form that never improved much. I don't understand how someone who worked so hard could not modestly improve his shot.
Last year, couldn't defend or drive to the rim, either.
He was a disappointment last year for sure.
Very true. Agree that he was a disappointment and couldn't defend well either.
