OOC scheduling

[Zeldas Open Roof]

was driving around all weekend and had on some national college hoops guys talking about the tournament. The acc and the lack of any credit came up and specifically Pitt a few times.. the consensus seems to be that the OOC schedule was really weak for pitt and what could truly keep them out of the tournament..

The missouri loss was huge but damned if they didnt just blast our OOC schedule. Is it really that bad compare to others? For some reason, everyone loves the mnt west now and the acc is in the proverbial dog house. Lack of recruiting, poor OOC scheduling across the board.

This was all news to me.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

oh crap, i just scrolled down and saw werewolf have the same damn topic. Disregard this, reply to his.

im an idiot..

 

[pittchagg]

was driving around all weekend and had on some national college hoops guys talking about the tournament. The acc and the lack of any credit came up and specifically Pitt a few times.. the consensus seems to be that the OOC schedule was really weak for pitt and what could truly keep them out of the tournament..

The missouri loss was huge but damned if they didnt just blast our OOC schedule. Is it really that bad compare to others? For some reason, everyone loves the mnt west now and the acc is in the proverbial dog house. Lack of recruiting, poor OOC scheduling across the board.

This was all news to me.

It’s a very bad schedule - one of the 30 or so lowest ranked in the country. Some of it wasn’t Pitt’s fault - there wasn’t a soul who would think that West Virginia would fall apart when that game was put on the schedule. And Pitt didn’t have a choice in the Missouri game, but Missouri was #55 in the preseason kenpom rankings, so they were projected to be significantly better than the #146 team or whatever that they ended up being. And what really killed the strength of schedule was losing to #31 Florida (which isn’t a bad loss by any means - Florida is a good team) and getting #167 Oregon State instead of #16 Baylor. So instead of three Q1 games and a Q2, we got one Q1 game and three Q3’s. What was supposed to be the top end of the schedule just bottomed out.

What’s funny, though, is that the ACC is so much stronger this year than last year, that Pitt’s overall SOS (including non-conference and conference games) is stronger this year than it was last year, despite the noncon SOS being significantly worse.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

It’s a very bad schedule - one of the 30 or so lowest ranked in the country. Some of it wasn’t Pitt’s fault - there wasn’t a soul who would think that West Virginia would fall apart when that game was put on the schedule. And Pitt didn’t have a choice in the Missouri game, but Missouri was #55 in the preseason kenpom rankings, so they were projected to be significantly better than the #146 team or whatever that they ended up being. And what really killed the strength of schedule was losing to #31 Florida (which isn’t a bad loss by any means - Florida is a good team) and getting #167 Oregon State instead of #16 Baylor. So instead of three Q1 games and a Q2, we got one Q1 game and three Q3’s. What was supposed to be the top end of the schedule just bottomed out.

What’s funny, though, is that the ACC is so much stronger this year than last year, that Pitt’s overall SOS (including non-conference and conference games) is stronger this year than it was last year, despite the noncon SOS being significantly worse.

Really bad luck. Missouri was in Lunardi's preseason bracketology I believe and were picked 9th in the SEC which is right around bubble territory. WVU was a potential Final Four team before Huggy got fired and then even after, still had NCAAT talent but a few guys were ineligible until the WV AG sued the NCAA and then Jesse Edwards got hurt. Their season got ruined. Throw in Oregon State, which you figure would be bad, we really only played 1 good OOC game and lost it.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Really bad luck. Missouri was in Lunardi's preseason bracketology I believe and were picked 9th in the SEC which is right around bubble territory. WVU was a potential Final Four team before Huggy got fired and then even after, still had NCAAT talent but a few guys were ineligible until the WV AG sued the NCAA and then Jesse Edwards got hurt. Their season got ruined. Throw in Oregon State, which you figure would be bad, we really only played 1 good OOC game and lost it.

Bad luck in regards to SOS, definitely. But we beat Oregon State by 25 and probably would have lost to Baylor by 15ish. And we beat this version of WVU by 17 and probably would have lost to them by 10+ if all the Huggins stuff didn't happen. So, at least as far as NET goes, it probably isn't all bad.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

Despite the bizarre seasons WVU and Mizzou had, our SoS is 68th according to Sagarin and 99th according to RPI. That's a little weak but honestly not that bad. Uconn's is worse and they were ranked #1! St. Mary's, Gonzaga, and Dayton are all ranked. Indiana State has a vote in the AP poll. Just gotta win.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Despite the bizarre seasons WVU and Mizzou had, our SoS is 68th according to Sagarin and 99th according to RPI. That's a little weak but honestly not that bad. Uconn's is worse and they were ranked #1! St. Mary's, Gonzaga, and Dayton are all ranked. Indiana State has a vote in the AP poll. Just gotta win.

What's the non-con SOS because that's what you see them talk about and cite. They mentioned that for Clemson last year.

 

[Pitt666]

Pitt 344
NW 330
Ole Miss 328
Nebraska 322

Then a gap between next bubble
New Mexico 271
Wake 261
Colorado 250
Seton Hall 244
Providence 241
Miss State 235
Texas 221

Then another gap
FAU 52
mSU 45
Utah 27
Gonzaga 23 - 20 pt win over Cuse

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt 344
NW 330
Ole Miss 328
Nebraska 322

Then a gap between next bubble
New Mexico 271
Wake 261
Colorado 250
Seton Hall 244
Providence 241
Miss State 235
Texas 221

Then another gap
FAU 52
mSU 45
Utah 27
Gonzaga 23 - 20 pt win over Cuse

Wow, I didnt realize it was that bad. That probably keeps us out if we go 3-1/1-1. Definitely need to win these next 4 and though I would like to think that would be enough, even 4-0/1-1 might not be. Just a really strong bubble.

 

[Pitt666]

Wow, I didnt realize it was that bad. That probably keeps us out if we go 3-1/1-1. Definitely need to win these next 4 and though I would like to think that would be enough, even 4-0/1-1 might not be. Just a really strong bubble.

Yeah the criticism is likely Pitt only has 9 losses, but had they played a real schedule, they would have 2 more losses, etc. fair or not, they need more quality wins. The road wins are likely what is keeping them this close. Win tomorrow though, and then it solidifies the turn around.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Wow, I didnt realize it was that bad. That probably keeps us out if we go 3-1/1-1. Definitely need to win these next 4 and though I would like to think that would be enough, even 4-0/1-1 might not be. Just a really strong bubble.

Overall SOS should be all that matters. If you're in a league with Santa Clara, San Diego, Pepperdine, LMU, Portland, and Pacific, for example, you should have a top ten OOC SOS if you want respect.

It's a deceptive metric when you compare OOC schedules between teams in real conferences and teams that splash around in these small ponds after early December. And I say that while acknowledging the ACC is still flawed.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Yeah the criticism is likely Pitt only has 9 losses, but had they played a real schedule, they would have 2 more losses, etc. fair or not, they need more quality wins. The road wins are likely what is keeping them this close. Win tomorrow though, and then it solidifies the turn around.

1 more loss, I'd say. Would losing to a really good Huggy team by 10 knock us out? The win over them didnt do anything for us anyway.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Overall SOS should be all that matters. If you're in a league with Santa Clara, San Diego, Pepperdine, LMU, Portland, and Pacific, for example, you should have a top ten OOC SOS if you want respect.

It's a deceptive metric when you compare OOC schedules between teams in real conferences and teams that splash around in these small ponds after early December. And I say that while acknowledging the ACC is still flawed.

I agree but you hear it every Selection Sunday when the chair cites a non-conference SOS as to why somone didnt get in. Last year, it was Clemson. But they blew out NC State 3 times and went 14-6 in the ACC. Come on bro, you gotta put them in for that. They were better than whatever carbon copy MWC team that ASU blew out in Dayton.

 

[whirlybird optio]

I agree but you hear it every Selection Sunday when the chair cites a non-conference SOS as to why somone didnt get in. Last year, it was Clemson. But they blew out NC State 3 times and went 14-6 in the ACC. Come on bro, you gotta put them in for that. They were better than whatever carbon copy MWC team that ASU blew out in Dayton.

Yea, but to be fair, the number one thing the committee just said they look for, more than SOS, is road record. That’s enough of an ace in the hole to trump the OOC schedule for Pitt I hope. Some of these bubble teams have like 1-2 true road wins all year. Pitt very well might finish at like 6-4 or even 7-3 on the road in league. That’s going to get you in, or I think it’s enough to offset the OOC argument.

The other thing, all of the predictive metrics that the committee has on their team sheets. BPI, NET, POM…we are really strong there. Way better than a lot of bubble teams.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Yea, but to be fair, the number one thing the committee just said they look for, more than SOS, is road record. That’s enough of an ace in the hole to trump the OOC schedule for Pitt I hope. Some of these bubble teams have like 1-2 true road wins all year. Pitt very well might finish at like 6-4 or even 7-3 on the road in league. That’s going to get you in, or I think it’s enough to offset the OOC argument.

The other thing, all of the predictive metrics that the committee has on their team sheets. BPI, NET, POM…we are really strong there. Way better than a lot of bubble teams.

If we split Clem/BC and win the rest, I would wonder if any P6 team with 7+ true road wins has ever gotten left out. My guess would be no. I would doubt any P6 with 6 has ever gotten left out. Maybe not even 5.

 

[whirlybird optio]

If we split Clem/BC and win the rest, I would wonder if any P6 team with 7+ true road wins has ever gotten left out. My guess would be no. I would doubt any P6 with 6 has ever gotten left out. Maybe not even 5.

I think if we go 3-1, we are right there. Again, the computers love us. We seem like the EXACT high major team that gets in over a mid major and no one can figure out why.

 

[whirlybird optio]

If we split Clem/BC and win the rest, I would wonder if any P6 team with 7+ true road wins has ever gotten left out. My guess would be no. I would doubt any P6 with 6 has ever gotten left out. Maybe not even 5.

I would think there has never been a high major team with 6+ road wins, 20 overall wins, and a top 50 NET who has ever been left out.

If we go 3-1 we check all those boxes easily

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I would think there has never been a high major team with 6+ road wins, 20 overall wins, and a top 50 NET who has ever been left out.

If we go 3-1 we check all those boxes easily

If we go 3-1 and get left out, we'll become the "first" of something. However, I would think that Clemson was the first P6 team with a conference record 8 games over .500 who got left out.

Honestly, and I said this before, I wished the P6s would get together and only play each other. The cupcake games dont bring any revenue. Just agree to play all 31 games vs each other and fans will be packing the arenas in Nov/Dec. Maybe you go 17-16 instead of 21-12 but maybe that gets you in because all the P6s are in the same boat.

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

I'm sold on the impressive road record being why Pitt us likely getting in even if they drop another regular season game.

 

[KennyHeisman8]

If we go 3-1 and get left out, we'll become the "first" of something. However, I would think that Clemson was the first P6 team with a conference record 8 games over .500 who got left out.

Honestly, and I said this before, I wished the P6s would get together and only play each other. The cupcake games dont bring any revenue. Just agree to play all 31 games vs each other and fans will be packing the arenas in Nov/Dec. Maybe you go 17-16 instead of 21-12 but maybe that gets you in because all the P6s are in the same boat.

I’m mean I’m at the point that I think going 17- 14 with 15 q1 games is better than 22-9 with only 8. It’s starting to feel like a q1 loss is more valuable than a q3 or 4 win

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I’m mean I’m at the point that I think going 17- 14 with 15 q1 games is better than 22-9 with only 8. It’s starting to feel like a q1 loss is more valuable than a q3 or 4 win

Well, OK St was 18-15, 6-12 in Q1 last year and didnt get in.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I’m mean I’m at the point that I think going 17- 14 with 15 q1 games is better than 22-9 with only 8. It’s starting to feel like a q1 loss is more valuable than a q3 or 4 win

It depends. For example, a close win to a top ten team, especially on the road, would say a lot more good about your team than beating some random, crappy Q4 team by 20 at home.

 

[Pitt666]

Well, OK St was 18-15, 6-12 in Q1 last year and didnt get in.

And just like 23-10 Clemson they got a 1 seed in the NiT.