The hands down choice was Dylan Crews and probably still is, but you can’t deny Paul Skenes is making a name for himself. The guy throws 100 mph and his stats are unreal so far. Langford and Dollander are also right there. Will be interesting the rest of the college baseball year. Courae the buccos will probably take someone off the top 4
OT: first pick baseball draft
- Thread starter JokePa
- Start date
I totally forgot the Pirates have the first overall pick. I think now, you don't need to be creative. You take the very best talent possible.
Crews. Dollander. Skenes.
Crews. Dollander. Skenes.
How soon will they be able to trade said first pick to save money?
Darn, thought I’d get some advice here on who to pick in my fantasy baseball league draft.
Yeah, they changed the draft system this year to a lottery and the Pirates won the lottery.
If the Pirates draft a pitcher with the top pick, he will have Tommy John surgery within 2 years and lose 10 mph on his fastball. Then they will trade him for two never was projects and a new lamp for Nutting’s office in Ligonier.
I'd always be inclined to take a pitcher. The Giants won a few WS will a mediocre lineup and great staffs. Hell, David Freese was hitting cleanup in the WS *after* his time with the Pirates. And then the small market teams who have made it there - Rays, Indians, Royals - have done so mostly on the backs of their pitching. Plus, it doesn't seem like we're exactly loaded with pitching to begin with.
I just think the odds of a position player developing to be THAT much higher above replacement level aren't great so you're better loading up your staff.
I just think the odds of a position player developing to be THAT much higher above replacement level aren't great so you're better loading up your staff.
The problem with that is that the "dropout rate" for pitchers is way higher than for position players, in large part because pitchers are far more likely to have career ending/altering injuries. As a category, high school pitchers are, by far, the most likely to bust and never amount to anything. There are a few teams now that won't take any high school pitcher with a high draft pick, and will only take a college pitcher if they think he is far superior to anyone else they could pick, because the risk of injury is so high.
You know… most of yinz could just not open this thread. No need to post the same three lazy jokes we’ve all seen a million times.
Skenes worries me in the sense, the top college pitchers aren’t sure things at all.
Jack Leiter, Max Meyer, Nick Lodolo, Casey Mize (also 1 overall), Brendan McKay, AJ Puk, Dylan Tate, those are the last 7 “1st college pitcher taken” in the draft. Most teams don’t build their rotations at the top of the draft.
For college hitters, and I’ll even take top 2 in some drafts, you’ll see it’s a much safer route. Henry Davis, Torkelson, Rutschman and Witt Jr (same draft), Joey Bart, Alec Bohm.
And I’d argue Crews potential is much higher than any of those from a bat perspective
Jack Leiter, Max Meyer, Nick Lodolo, Casey Mize (also 1 overall), Brendan McKay, AJ Puk, Dylan Tate, those are the last 7 “1st college pitcher taken” in the draft. Most teams don’t build their rotations at the top of the draft.
For college hitters, and I’ll even take top 2 in some drafts, you’ll see it’s a much safer route. Henry Davis, Torkelson, Rutschman and Witt Jr (same draft), Joey Bart, Alec Bohm.
And I’d argue Crews potential is much higher than any of those from a bat perspective
Yeah, probably that. Once you get past the first couple rounds it's pretty much a crap shoot anyway, unless you are picking a guy who has dropped because of signability and are planning on dropping a ton of cash on him.
That's a fair point, but I don't know how much it changes the philosophy. You still need 3 or 4 very good ones, regardless of whether or not that requires higher numbers thrown at the position group to account for injuries/etc. And we might be able to milk a reclamation project every now and then, but we're never affording top pitchers in free agency.
Swaggerty sent down. Njigba, Andujar, Joe battling it out? Puhleeze. Gotta be Crews.
Or they will draft the top rated hitter…and turn him into a pitcher who will have Tommy John surgery within 2 years and lose 10 mph on his fastball.
I’d be extremely happy with Skenes or Crews.
Letter was just started the minors last year and he will be in AAA to start this season, hardly behind schedule there
Here’s how I see it…
Dollander and Skenes have gone back-and-forth as the top pitching prospect. There has been no disputing that Crews is by far the best position prospect in this draft. He likely goes 1/1 in the past couple drafts as well.
I hope they don’t overthink this. Hindsight will tell us whether he is the right pick or not, but everyone (and everything) is telling us that Crews is a generational talent akin to Harper or Trout.
Dollander and Skenes have gone back-and-forth as the top pitching prospect. There has been no disputing that Crews is by far the best position prospect in this draft. He likely goes 1/1 in the past couple drafts as well.
I hope they don’t overthink this. Hindsight will tell us whether he is the right pick or not, but everyone (and everything) is telling us that Crews is a generational talent akin to Harper or Trout.
It’s gotta be Crews hands down. He’s head and shoulders the best available player available.
Of course the biggest issue with him is going to be $. He’s going to be asking for a lot of it and may try to charge the Pirates even more on top of that.
And if they pass on him for $, it’s not Nutting being cheap as much as some of you want it to be, it’s about saving the $ to spend elsewhere in the draft. In the end the same amount of $ is spent on the entire draft class if they take Crews or some guy $2M under slot with the top pick, the difference is take the potential franchise guy and a good draft class or take a very good(but not franchise player) and get a few additional very good potential players through the rest of the draft- more bites at the apple that way. Typically I lean more towards the more bites way of doing things, but Crews has me interested enough that I’d grab him if he can be signed for as little as $1.5M over slot
Of course the biggest issue with him is going to be $. He’s going to be asking for a lot of it and may try to charge the Pirates even more on top of that.
And if they pass on him for $, it’s not Nutting being cheap as much as some of you want it to be, it’s about saving the $ to spend elsewhere in the draft. In the end the same amount of $ is spent on the entire draft class if they take Crews or some guy $2M under slot with the top pick, the difference is take the potential franchise guy and a good draft class or take a very good(but not franchise player) and get a few additional very good potential players through the rest of the draft- more bites at the apple that way. Typically I lean more towards the more bites way of doing things, but Crews has me interested enough that I’d grab him if he can be signed for as little as $1.5M over slot
Leiter walked almost 5.5 hitters per 9 innings and had an ERA well over 5 in AA. He may turn out on, but certainly not the debut you want from a guy with that pedigree
Like Gerrit Cole.
Under the last two regimes, they have not been cheap with first round picks. I completely agree with your methodology.
So is the idea that we should never draft a pitcher high again because sometimes they get hurt? Okay, let's just keep stockpiling middle infielders, lol.
Yeah, but that really is not troubling in my opinion for a guy throwing 100 mph in his first year of pro ball.
His swing and miss metric was through the roof. He will be a good pitcher barring injuries.
That’s not what he’s saying. Don’t be so over the top. The Pirates need a big run producer. There isn’t one currently in their system.
Pitchers tend to be more risky, but not to the point of not taking one because they might get hurt…
Crews is as close to a sure thing in this draft as there is. He will be a good player. He is ready for the major leagues now.
Uh, over the top is singling out a single example of a pitcher who got hurt as some sort of valid point. You're sure making a lot of assumptions on his behalf.
I honestly don't have much of an emotional investment in them going one way or the other. Hopefully their decision works out. But it sure seems like they need to bolster their minor league pitching.
Maybe I’m being a little sensitive… My wife makes those rash comments all the time..
ME: Hey dear, instead of going out with your girlfriends this afternoon, can you help me with some of the yard work?
HER: Well I guess I’m not allowed to have a social life!
Makes me ill…
Crews is batting .531 (43-81) 10 2b, 9 hr, 2 sb
Skenes is 5-0, 0.72 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 37 IP, 71Ks
Langford is a good prospect, but UF field is a band box, they have 2 other guys with double digit homers already
Jacob Gonzalez is another guy that will be near the top in my opinion
But I think its Crews, Skenes, Dollander. I think Crews doesnt have the frame for a big power hitter, but he is a great line drive guy that will hit 25-30 a year. Good fielder as well. Great eye, doesnt strikeout, was national freshman of the year, and only gotten better. Unless Skenes continues at this rate, I see Crews as #1
Oh by the way, wanna dark horse Pirate pick (since that is probable?) Jacob Wilson, Jack Wilson's son is a top rated 6'3 SS with pop, he is batting .473 so far.
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Crews can ask for a lot but there is only so much leverage a player has unless they are a two sport athlete. If he wants 2 million above slot and the Pirates are only offering 1 million he has a lot to risk by going back to college, and not much to gain.
How?
If they draft Crews and spend $8M on him or if they draft someone like Maui Ahuna and give him $3M(just a random underslot guy)…….at the end of the day, the total amount spent on the draft class will be equal to the entire draft pool available. Drafting Ahuna means spending over slot one or more likely 2-3 times later in the draft that wouldn’t be possible with drafting Crews.
Considering Nutting isn’t saving any money by spending $5M less on the first round pick in this scenario due to that $5M being spent elsewhere on this draft class, please please tell me how passing on Crews is Nutting being cheap?
Because it’s not just about the signing bonus. It’s also about what Nutting is going to have to pay him in salaries before he becomes a free agent. And, Nutting will be looking to save every penny he can every single year.
This is true of course, and did this to get Bubba Chandler and White the one year, but, that being said, it really isnt smart to do this with the #1 pick, since you get the chance to get 'your guy'. Our pool will be higher than any team I think. Big believer of spending to get the best instead of overspending to get the next best
