Thank you sir, I owe you a lot.
OT: RIP John Bogle
- Thread starter Pitt69
- Start date
I always say I'd like to do more and never do. For me, Vanguard target funds are it for now. And they have served me well.
100 years of data proves nobody beats the market.
Fees are for suckers
Beg to differ. If you had a serious illness, within reason, are you going to the lowest cost provider or again within reason, somebody with a much better track record?
The previous 100 years of data isn't particularly meaningful when you have had interest rates at near zero for almost 20 years........
Research also says if you want less income, more risk, lower returns, but and hold static portfolios are for you.
People miss the point that Bogle's whole shtick was to convince people to leave funds in the places where he makes the most money. He was a great marketer.
You have gotten and believe; less than half the story. Hook. Line. Sinker.
People miss the point that Bogle's whole shtick was to convince people to leave funds in the places where he makes the most money. He was a great marketer.
You have gotten and believe; less than half the story. Hook. Line. Sinker.
Factually incorrect. There are great stock pickers out there. Not easy though and have to have a long term focus, not panick when the market plummets and not get too bullish when things are going well. Really need to know your companies and be able to understand industry trends and changing technologies.
The trouble is.....as we have seen in downturns, even the most healthy companies and technology forward companies aren't immune to the plummets when the markets have the big sell offs. The problem is, these are the companies that rebound faster, but in today's immediate gratification and people looking at their investments and 401ks on a daily basis, people panic. Smart people see the buy opportunities these situations present.
Where one's index funds sit is irrelevant. I was commenting on the notion that buy hold wins. It doesn't, the"belief" of that is a result of marketing from people who benefit from other people believing in said marketing.
Static portfolios are not the end all to be all- and there's research that completely disproves your comment.
Static portfolios are not the end all to be all- and there's research that completely disproves your comment.
My statement was 100% accurate.
You know who wins with actively managed accounts?
Brokers
Compounding interest is the name of the game-
So, you tell me how paying an additional 2% fees over 10-30 years- is going to get you ahead of me with my diversified index fund mix -
Is going to win the math battle.
Nobody beats the market over time.
Or as originally stated
Who said static?
Annual rebalancing and adjusting risk mix based on your tolerance is highly important.
And Index funds will have better returns over time.
Or as warren buffet won his bet by nearly 5%
NeverMind fees
http://amp.timeinc.net/fortune/2017/12/30/warren-buffett-million-dollar-bet
Even with rebalancing- you are still talking about a static portfolio.
Research will show you rebalancing generally is a drag on returns. Weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi-annually, annually, etc are all drags on performance. The only rebalancing that historically adds alfa is once every 4 years following a presidential election.
You keep stating marketing ploys as research; they not the same thing. I'll gladly keep educating you on the topic if you want or you could look it up on your own.
Research will show you rebalancing generally is a drag on returns. Weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi-annually, annually, etc are all drags on performance. The only rebalancing that historically adds alfa is once every 4 years following a presidential election.
You keep stating marketing ploys as research; they not the same thing. I'll gladly keep educating you on the topic if you want or you could look it up on your own.
Rebalancing generally concerns risk, not returns. The two of the three biggest drags on return usually are fees and taxes, which are two things many active managers ignore.
Passive strategies have an important place in portfolios as do active ones based upon situation. Most normal investors are best served by passive strategies as many active individual managers on an individual advisor level are not successful or truly knowledgeable.
There are phenomenal asset managers in the world, the one that everyone knows well is Warren Buffett (who is really a totally different beast than anyone else). And some active managers are great but they are very difficult to find.
Usually the local long-term broker or investment manager these days lucked on a 20-25 year run of U.S. equity superiority and had excellent returns over time but really does not know as much about investing as an individual can learn from Malkiel’s book and Bogle’s book on mutual funds.
It’s rough out there when looking for an investment manager. Bogle was a giant whose theories cannot really be refuted by numbers but the whole story is more complicated when talking about good and bad investing (which he readily admitted as he was a fan of Buffett and a few others but once again those guys are hard to find and not your usual long-term broker or investment manager).
Passive strategies have an important place in portfolios as do active ones based upon situation. Most normal investors are best served by passive strategies as many active individual managers on an individual advisor level are not successful or truly knowledgeable.
There are phenomenal asset managers in the world, the one that everyone knows well is Warren Buffett (who is really a totally different beast than anyone else). And some active managers are great but they are very difficult to find.
Usually the local long-term broker or investment manager these days lucked on a 20-25 year run of U.S. equity superiority and had excellent returns over time but really does not know as much about investing as an individual can learn from Malkiel’s book and Bogle’s book on mutual funds.
It’s rough out there when looking for an investment manager. Bogle was a giant whose theories cannot really be refuted by numbers but the whole story is more complicated when talking about good and bad investing (which he readily admitted as he was a fan of Buffett and a few others but once again those guys are hard to find and not your usual long-term broker or investment manager).
It's not my opinion.
Read Jim Otar's unveiling the retirement myth and Michael Garrison's paper on Simple Moving Averages. If you do, you will see that static portfolios don't beat dynamic portfolios.
Read Jim Otar's unveiling the retirement myth and Michael Garrison's paper on Simple Moving Averages. If you do, you will see that static portfolios don't beat dynamic portfolios.
My MA Adviser Investments professional's summary:
John C. Bogle: 1929–2019
Vanguard founder Jack Bogle died from cancer on Wednesday at the age of 89. Bogle’s vision in launching Vanguard in 1975 and his advocacy for individual investors over the years since have had a tremendous, positive impact on the mutual fund industry. The move to make funds more shareholder-friendly by cutting costs benefited all investors as Vanguard’s competitors responded with their own fee cuts over time, eventually leading some to offer index funds with operating expenses of zero.
While Bogle may be known as the “Father of Indexing” for debuting the first consumer index fund, it was the application of Bogle’s low-cost mantra to actively managed funds that first caught our attention. We have long believed in “buying the manager, not the fund,” but bundling promising stock- and bond-pickers and industry-low expenses is a compelling proposition that has served us (and our clients) well over the years.
We did not always agree with Bogle’s investment recommendations or market calls, but Adviser Investments and investors worldwide owe him a debt of gratitude for his efforts to make investing more affordable for the individual and for tirelessly promoting the idea that the shareholder—or client—should come first.
John C. Bogle: 1929–2019
Vanguard founder Jack Bogle died from cancer on Wednesday at the age of 89. Bogle’s vision in launching Vanguard in 1975 and his advocacy for individual investors over the years since have had a tremendous, positive impact on the mutual fund industry. The move to make funds more shareholder-friendly by cutting costs benefited all investors as Vanguard’s competitors responded with their own fee cuts over time, eventually leading some to offer index funds with operating expenses of zero.
While Bogle may be known as the “Father of Indexing” for debuting the first consumer index fund, it was the application of Bogle’s low-cost mantra to actively managed funds that first caught our attention. We have long believed in “buying the manager, not the fund,” but bundling promising stock- and bond-pickers and industry-low expenses is a compelling proposition that has served us (and our clients) well over the years.
We did not always agree with Bogle’s investment recommendations or market calls, but Adviser Investments and investors worldwide owe him a debt of gratitude for his efforts to make investing more affordable for the individual and for tirelessly promoting the idea that the shareholder—or client—should come first.
I don’t have to-
I’ve read dozens of statistical analysis as part of my investment courses in business school.
Keep playing someone fees for worse outcomes
No skin off my nose
It’s incredible to think that on a Pitt bb board there’s posters who know more about investing than Warren Buffet whose advice to his wife and family upon his death is to put all the money in an S&P fund .
Professional money managers who consistently beat the S&P are very rare birds and very wealthy . (Like WB or Dave Tepper )
Unless you are compensated millions annually the only way to accumulate enough money to retire comfortably or better is to start saving as much as you can and as soon as you can do it . Time and compounding are you friends in wealth accumulation .
JV saved individual investors billions in fees over the yrs . Those old enough to remember it use to cost many hundreds if not a thousand dollars to buy or sell stocks and managed funds fees were excessive .
No , I just know the facts .Well, I guess that makes you an expert.
Ps .. Buffet easily won his 1 million dollar bet with a hedge fund guy that they couldn’t outperform an unmanaged index over a 10 yr period .
Ps2...Thinking anyone knows the direction of day to day market fluctuations is a fools game . That doesn’t mean you can’t be right once or twice .
If you bothered to read what I suggested- factually speaking, you will see a very simple way that has beaten static portfolios (specifically the S&P 500) for rolling 30 and 40 year period over the last 80 years. Or don't and stick with the anecdotal Buffett story.
No , I just know the facts .
Ps .. Buffet easily won his 1 million dollar bet with a hedge fund guy that they couldn’t outperform an unmanaged index over a 10 yr period .
Ps2...Thinking anyone knows the direction of day to day market fluctuations is a fools game . That doesn’t mean you can’t be right once or twice .
Call me crazy , but I’ll stick with Buffet !
It’s not a story it was a real bet that the hedge fund guy paid off ...to charity.
Ps ..hope it works out for you .
From the Cheap Seats; this turned out to be a pretty lively thread. Much more than I originally intended. Goes to show you there is more than one way to skin a cat. My respect for John Bogle goes back to 1976 when I moved to the Philly area and Vanguard was a fledgling local firm. I transferred my brokerage account to them from a major US brokerage house's London office. In 1978 I started IRA Mutual Fund accounts. Over the past 40 years I have adjusted my investment goals a few times, and although there are always times when you wish you had done something different, my results with Bogle strategies has always met my basic investment expectations. One last thing, even in retirement, don't stop tweaking your portfolio.
