OT: Sun Belt conference and the 12 team football playoffs

[NKSplitter]

The Sun Belt conference has been making some noise this season with upsets and close losses to Power 5 schools.

Notable upsets:

Appalachian State: 17-14 win over Texas A&M
Georgia Southern 45-42 win over Nebraska
Marshall 26-21 win over Notre Dame
Old Dominion 20-17 win over Virgina Tech

Close losses:
Appalachian State 61-63 loss to North Carolina
Old Dominion 14-16 loss to Virginia
South Alabama 31-32 loss to UCLA

I would imagine even with the most recently announced conference membership changes, as conference membership stands until the next shake up, the SEC, Big 10, ACC, Big 12, and Pac 12(to be renamed back to Pac 10?) will be 5 of the 6 top ranked conference champions to get a playoff bid.

But I'm wondering if Sun Belt conference leadership is getting things together at just the right time to surprise people and fill the 6th conference champion spot more often than would have been expected when the upcoming new playoff structure was announced.

Prior to the SEC pulling Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12, the AAC was probably considered the 6th best conference. But with Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston backfilling positions in the Big 12, the AAC looks like it will be taking a step back.

In the dying days of the Big East football conference a solid argument could have been made that the Mountain West had surpassed the Big East as the 6th best conference; but since then, they've lost Utah, TCU, and BYU and teams like Boise State and Fresno State are not currently playing to the level they were when the Mountain West was making noise.

The MAC and WAC are what they are. The MAC champion often ends the season in the bottom third of the top 25, but generally not high enough to be the 6th highest ranked champion. I'm not sure when the last time a current WAC member finished the season in the top 25.

Conference USA is a shell of what it was in its prime with the best teams having already defected to the AAC and more recently Marshall, Southern Mississippi and Old Dominion defecting to the Sun Belt.

So, who is #6 in the conference rankings? IMO, it's probably still the AAC or the Mountain West, but the Sun Belt is making a heck of a push into that conversation. I wouldn't be surprised if the AAC tries to poach some of the top Sun Belt teams to back fill the losses to the Big 12; but the Sun Belt commissioner seems shrewder than the AAC commissioner and I wouldn't be surprised if he strikes first (maybe make a play for USF to get a foothold in Florida and ECU to along with Costal Carolina form a Tobacco Road Jr.).

I know conference realignment talk tends to center around what the power conferences are doing; but with 6 auto bids up for grabs, I thought it might be interesting to talk about what lower prestige conferences are doing to try to have the last team in.

 

[Dointhatrag]

Marshall followed up that nice win over Notre Dame with a loss to Bowling Green this week which has been a MAC doormat for a number of years. Lets not get ahead of ourselves on the sun belt.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think 5 slots should be guaranteed for the P5 conference champions. Because this can easily happen:

1. SEC Champ
2. B10 Champ
3. Big 12 Champ
4. Pac 12 Champ
5. Boise State or some MWC team goes 12-0
6. Liberty goes 12-0 in CUSA

The ACC champ is 11-2 or 10-3 and is left out of the CFP.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I think 5 slots should be guaranteed for the P5 conference champions. Because this can easily happen:

1. SEC Champ
2. B10 Champ
3. Big 12 Champ
4. Pac 12 Champ
5. Boise State or some MWC team goes 12-0
6. Liberty goes 12-0 in CUSA

The ACC champ is 11-2 or 10-3 and is left out of the CFP.

Theoretically possible, I guess. But a 10-3 conference champ probably at least cracks the top 12 more often than not.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Theoretically possible, I guess. But a 10-3 conference champ probably at least cracks the top 12 more often than not.

10-3. No way. 11-2, maybe. In my hypothetical scenario, the 6 at-larges would be:

3 SEC
1 B10

Last 2 would be either more B10, ND or ACC Champ (or a 2nd place team from B12/P12)

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

10-3. No way. 11-2, maybe. In my hypothetical scenario, the 6 at-larges would be:

3 SEC
1 B10

Last 2 would be either more B10, ND or ACC Champ (or a 2nd place team from B12/P12)

Like I said, I think it's possible. But a 10-3 conference champion in the ACC will be coming off a pretty good win in the conference title game. There won't be any more 7-5 teams sneaking in with the new format. If it did happen, it's much more likely to go down in a PAC conference that is losing USC.

 

[PittPharm2002]

I think 5 slots should be guaranteed for the P5 conference champions. Because this can easily happen:

1. SEC Champ
2. B10 Champ
3. Big 12 Champ
4. Pac 12 Champ
5. Boise State or some MWC team goes 12-0
6. Liberty goes 12-0 in CUSA

The ACC champ is 11-2 or 10-3 and is left out of the CFP.

You should post less about your opinions

 

[HailToPitt725]

Since it’ll either be the AAC, MWC, or SBC most years, I wonder if those conferences will persuade their members not to play each other? Maybe instead get a P5 game or two on the schedule and fill the rest out with cupcakes?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Like I said, I think it's possible. But a 10-3 conference champion in the ACC will be coming off a pretty good win in the conference title game. There won't be any more 7-5 teams sneaking in with the new format. If it did happen, it's much more likely to go down in a PAC conference that is losing USC.

I cant see it. But I'm really surprised the P2 and the other 3 agreed to this new format, giving 6 conferences auto bids. I mean lets say Pitt gets stuck in a watered down ACC.....well they can beat Syracuse, GT, and BC every year and go to the CFP.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Since it’ll either be the AAC, MWC, or SBC most years, I wonder if those conferences will persuade their members not to play each other? Maybe instead get a P5 game or two on the schedule and fill the rest out with cupcakes?

The P12 is probably going to make this new CFP about as much as the American and MWC.

Basically, its the SEC, B10, ACC, B12. Then 4 conferences (P12, Sun Belt, American, MWC) plus Liberty (which should breeze through CUSA given their resources) fighting for the last 2. I dont see the MAC producing enough 13-0, 12-1 teams.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

The P12 is probably going to make this new CFP about as much as the American and MWC.

Basically, its the SEC, B10, ACC, B12. Then 4 conferences (P12, Sun Belt, American, MWC) plus Liberty (which should breeze through CUSA given their resources) fighting for the last 2. I dont see the MAC producing enough 13-0, 12-1 teams.

The American is about to become a shell of itself. They can't withstand losing Cincy, UCF, and Houston. And it will only be a matter of time before SMU is either in the PAC or the BIG12. Even Memphis might leave in the next ten years. They'll jsut be the MAC (mostly) South. The PAC will, inevitably, be picking off some of the Mountain West soon, too.

I can't even say that will water the G5 down as a whole anymore, though, because it seems like new teams will just emerge now.

 

[Pitt79]

I think 5 slots should be guaranteed for the P5 conference champions. Because this can easily happen:

1. SEC Champ
2. B10 Champ
3. Big 12 Champ
4. Pac 12 Champ
5. Boise State or some MWC team goes 12-0
6. Liberty goes 12-0 in CUSA

The ACC champ is 11-2 or 10-3 and is left out of the CFP.

It's 12 teams, not 6.

 

[Pitt79]

Theoretically possible, I guess. But a 10-3 conference champ probably at least cracks the top 12 more often than not.

It's not SUBJECTIVE "Top 12" it's P5 champs and one non P5 champ. The best thing is have as few SUBJECTIVE slots as possible, Make it MANDATORY to take every P5 Champ NO MATTER their record, and use rankings only for the 6th conference champ and at large bids.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The American is about to become a shell of itself. They can't withstand losing Cincy, UCF, and Houston. And it will only be a matter of time before SMU is either in the PAC or the BIG12. Even Memphis might leave in the next ten years. They'll jsut be the MAC (mostly) South. The PAC will, inevitably, be picking off some of the Mountain West soon, too.

I can't even say that will water the G5 down as a whole anymore, though, because it seems like new teams will just emerge now.

Doesn't matter really. If FAU, ECU, UAB, or whoever go 13-0, maybe 12-1, they can get one of the 6 auto bids.

 

[Pitt79]

Doesn't matter really. If FAU, ECU, UAB, or whoever go 13-0, maybe 12-1, they can get one of the 6 auto bids.

That's GOOD, I like it, better than rewarding the 4th place SEC team, even if they are really "better".

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

It's not SUBJECTIVE "Top 12" it's P5 champs and one non P5 champ. The best thing is have as few SUBJECTIVE slots as possible, Make it MANDATORY to take every P5 Champ NO MATTER their record, and use rankings only for the 6th conference champ and at large bids.

He's saying it's possible that there are two G5 champions that are rated higher than one of the P5 champions. And I think that is possible, albeit improbable. There is nothing that states all P5 champions will be included. It just says six highest conference champions.

 

[NKSplitter]

He's saying it's possible that there are two G5 champions that are rated higher than one of the P5 champions. And I think that is possible, albeit improbable.

The playoff format makes a stronger case for going to a divisionless format. The most obvious scenario where this would happen is when a division has a high amount of parity and a 6-6 or 7-5 division winner pulls an upset in the conference championship game. But in that scenario I don't think anyone should be crying tears over 2 G5 teams getting in instead of an 8-5 record conference champion.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

The playoff format makes a stronger case for going to a divisionless format. The most obvious scenario where this would happen is when a division has a high amount of parity and a 6-6 or 7-5 division winner pulls an upset in the conference championship game. But in that scenario I don't think anyone should be crying tears over 2 G5 teams getting in instead of an 8-5 record conference champion.

Yeah, that's a good point. If Ohio State is 9-3 or something and wins the East, that conference might not be represented at all if they lose to an 8-4 Wisconsin team in the championship. I mean, it's unlikely... but it's possible.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

He's saying it's possible that there are two G5 champions that are rated higher than one of the P5 champions. And I think that is possible, albeit improbable. There is nothing that states all P5 champions will be included. It just says six highest conference champions.

It will happen under the current landscape. Will it happen much? No. Probably once, maybe twice in a 10 year period.

 

[Pitt79]

It will happen under the current landscape. Will it happen much? No. Probably once, maybe twice in a 10 year period.

That's a good thing, will clearly be better than same old/same old we see every year over and over and over now.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Marshall followed up that nice win over Notre Dame with a loss to Bowling Green this week which has been a MAC doormat for a number of years. Lets not get ahead of ourselves on the sun belt.

It should also be pointed out in all the good feelings that Appalachian State is generating from their big Hail Mary win this weekend that that win was over Troy. They needed a Hail Mary to beat Troy at home. I mean I guess that's better than not completing the Hail Mary to beat Troy. But we don't have to pretend that beating Troy at home is any sort of accomplishment, do we?

 

[NKSplitter]

It should also be pointed out in all the good feelings that Appalachian State is generating from their big Hail Mary win this weekend that that win was over Troy. They needed a Hail Mary to beat Troy at home. I mean I guess that's better than not completing the Hail Mary to beat Troy. But we don't have to pretend that beating Troy at home is any sort of accomplishment, do we?

Troy has been down the past couple years but does have some recent history of being a tough out.

Some examples:

2018 24-19 win over Nebraska
2017 24-21 win over LSU
2016 24-30 loss to Clemson (Clemson goes on to win the National Title this year, with of course, their only loss being to Pitt)

The original premise of the thread wasn't meant to be that the Sun Belt is one of the top conferences in the country. The premise was meant to be whether or not the Sun Belt is trending up compared to other G5 conferences that are either trending down due to membership loss or staying relatively the same; and could the Sun Belt be one of the top G5 conferences in the next 5 to 10 years.

If Pitt were forced to schedule a home and home with one of the top 5 teams in either the MAC or the Sun Belt conference right now; and the primary concern was trying to schedule a team that Pitt could register wins against, I would schedule the MAC team no questions asked.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

I think 5 slots should be guaranteed for the P5 conference champions. Because this can easily happen:

1. SEC Champ
2. B10 Champ
3. Big 12 Champ
4. Pac 12 Champ
5. Boise State or some MWC team goes 12-0
6. Liberty goes 12-0 in CUSA

The ACC champ is 11-2 or 10-3 and is left out of the CFP.

Possible but not easily. Also shocked they did it too after all the break away talk. It’s huge Pitt et al still have theoretical access, but so do the pirates. It’s still going the way of mlb money wise but it still beats the alternative of low money no access.