I could be wrong but if I recall in recent years we have gotten lower seeds than Lunardi and other bracketologists have predicted. Main reason would be the bad OOC schedule. Can't believe you are defending the running national joke in the media. Amazing.
Pete Gillen on Pitt non-conference schedule.....
- Thread starter thebadby2
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Okay
Cincinnati, WVU(obviously), Providence, etc...
I mean, those would be competitive games, it would increase the national perception of our bad OOC schedule and would help lessen the really bad losses.
What neither of you guys seem to understand is that when you are a bubble-ish team (let's say 7-11 seeds), all that differentiates anyone are 1) good wins, and 2) bad losses. Unless you are adding a good win or removing a bad loss, anything else has little to no impact on your resume.
As you said, beating WF does not make Pitt any better, it just avoids a black mark on your sheet. Losing to WVU does not move Pitt from a 9 to a 7. Providence is projected (by Lunardi) as a 7 and Cincy as an 11, so I wouldn't consider either of those "great" wins, but they'd be marginally better than Detroit, but a loss is still worse than beating Detroit.
Overall, I would be in favor of playing Cincy routinely. Providence is potentially interesting if we're still recruiting the New England area, but otherwise they don't offer much. Those would be better games for the 2017 or 2018 seasons than 2016.
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Soup cans would be an upgrade. These are tomato cans we're scheduling.
You are wrong. It's a common misperception people have.
Pitt's seeding has actually been right in line with what Pitt deserved in just about every year we made the dance.
I would agree that is true most years, but 2013-14 team deserved better than a 9th seed.
That year their OOC included Fresno St, Tex Tech, Stanford, Penn St and Cincy. Granted they lost to Cincy and none of those teams were great, but it was a lot of mainstream programs
Getting seeded 9 was a disgrace and they should have been a 6 or 7 seed.
At some point, when everyone in the basketball world outside of the Pitt campus has been criticizing your OOC schedule for years, maybe, just maybe, it actually needs an upgrade. This isn't just the mutterings of a few of us fans. It has been a conversation among the basketball intelligentsia for years and it comes up about the same time every year--now-- with various analysts, including some of the most Pitt/Dixon friendly ones out there, like Raftery and Bilas.
You're right, nobody schedules a murderer's row anymore, Izzo comes closest--but I don't think adding that one game with WVU is enough, even if it is a step toward scheduling legitimacy. There will always be the soup cans, but replace a couple of them with some peach or coffee cans at least. It will help us greatly when we're actually good again, even if it hurts us a bit when we're not.
Sorry, the existing model just isn't good enough. It's a fact. We're getting made fun of annually for chrissakes.
Using the infamous "eye test," what seed are you positing Pitt really deserves this year, and is unable to attain solely because of their NCSOS? You think this team deserves a 4- or 5-seed?
If this team gets a 7-9 seed, it will be entirely accurate given their performances. The entire ESPN staff can laugh about us, and it doesn't change anything.
One flukish win does that to fans.It makes me laugh that all the same people that have been saying Dixon's career is over, the team has quit, has no talent, etc., are now saying the schedule was too soft and preventing us from getting a better seed.
Don't think it has gone unnoticed that nobody answered your question yet. Basically, they are conceding you are right, while being convinced you are wrong....It makes me laugh that all the same people that have been saying Dixon's career is over, the team has quit, has no talent, etc., are now saying the schedule was too soft and preventing us from getting a better seed.
I don't disagree. I just think WVU is indeed a natural, but not the only choice. The think here is that we just should look to play ONE true road game.
Yes Yes Yes...Heck Howabout Temple Nova PSU in a Pennsylvania tourney every year
Who are these 30-50% that are playing two? (As long as you don't count conference challenge games, ie: ACC-Big 10)
I would agree more with the statement that 90% play one and agree that Pitt certainly should make a change to fall in that 90%).
Except when we played top 10 Purdue ... 3,000+ didn't show up for that game either.
My point is that all we need to do is play one less soup can, and go on the road for that game instead. Just like Andy Katz said.
I do think adding WVU (or something like it) is enough. But the reality is that we haven't, and we do need to go on the road for one true away game. Just like Katz said ... So until that happens, we are going to hear it, and understandably so.
Like UPitt '89 said -- you are wrong. That happened, perhaps, in 2003-2004, but not since.
Pitt should have on-going home and homes with 2 of the following on a rotating bases:
WVU, Cincy, PSU, Temple, UConn. Natural, non acc rivals. So what if one is a loss, at least it is an opponent that people know about and it would give the team a measuring stick.
Then also: one other non-PSU Big (part of the acc/big challenge)
One smaller school from Michigan or Ohio. Detroit, Oakland, Cleve State, etc.
Duquense
A holiday tourney somewhere, which would probably be 2 games.
One other non big non acc p5. Forget this if there is a good team in the holiday tourney, above.
That's 8 games.
The rest could be small eastern cupcakes in fertile recruiting areas, including a at least one from PA.
That would put more butts in seats and be more watchable.
WVU, Cincy, PSU, Temple, UConn. Natural, non acc rivals. So what if one is a loss, at least it is an opponent that people know about and it would give the team a measuring stick.
Then also: one other non-PSU Big (part of the acc/big challenge)
One smaller school from Michigan or Ohio. Detroit, Oakland, Cleve State, etc.
Duquense
A holiday tourney somewhere, which would probably be 2 games.
One other non big non acc p5. Forget this if there is a good team in the holiday tourney, above.
That's 8 games.
The rest could be small eastern cupcakes in fertile recruiting areas, including a at least one from PA.
That would put more butts in seats and be more watchable.
Their goal is not to play a team that a casual fan knows about because they have a FB team, their goal is to make the tourney. That being said, i don't mind a game or two against a better opponent. But, it could hurt you as much as help you, depending on how many games you end up losing. Especially with the unfavorable weightings for Pitt in the ACC the next few years. Our conference SOS/RPI will almost be unequaled.
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Just FYI, Michigan State's OOC home games this year:
Ferris State
Florida Atlantic
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Louisville
Binghamton
Maryland-Eastern Shore
Florida
The Louisville game was the ACC-BIG challenge game - determined by TV. Pitt got Purdue.
Florida, I credit them for bringing in a solid high profile opponent OOC.
What you see is that MSU actually goes on the road. OOC road games:
Kansas
Boston College
Boise State
Providence
Northeastern
Oakland (Yes AT FREAKING OAKLAND)
But let's be honest. Switch those schedules out, call U of L an OOC opponent. The PEC sells out for Louisville and Florida. Attendance is right back to normal OOC cupcake for the rest.
Just stating some facts about one of the elite programs. Pitt was literally one good OOC game at home away from them in terms of home games.
The difference? MSU actually goes on the road during the non-conference season. They forgo a few games worth of revenue to travel and play some good but not great opponents. But MSU is rich and can do that.
Again though - improving the OOC schedule probably means ONE more good home game, based on the schedules of other schools.
Ferris State
Florida Atlantic
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Louisville
Binghamton
Maryland-Eastern Shore
Florida
The Louisville game was the ACC-BIG challenge game - determined by TV. Pitt got Purdue.
Florida, I credit them for bringing in a solid high profile opponent OOC.
What you see is that MSU actually goes on the road. OOC road games:
Kansas
Boston College
Boise State
Providence
Northeastern
Oakland (Yes AT FREAKING OAKLAND)
But let's be honest. Switch those schedules out, call U of L an OOC opponent. The PEC sells out for Louisville and Florida. Attendance is right back to normal OOC cupcake for the rest.
Just stating some facts about one of the elite programs. Pitt was literally one good OOC game at home away from them in terms of home games.
The difference? MSU actually goes on the road during the non-conference season. They forgo a few games worth of revenue to travel and play some good but not great opponents. But MSU is rich and can do that.
Again though - improving the OOC schedule probably means ONE more good home game, based on the schedules of other schools.
I was just looking at the "deep" bubble. UConn, Butler, Michigan and Florida all had better OOC, but worse RPI and worse bubble position. Schedule alone is not the panacea that some are making it out to be. Like Levance said, if you want to argue there is more entertainment value to playing tougher games, fine (unless you are losing more games) Increased attendance, fine ( unless you are losing more games). Our schedule is not keeping us out of the dance though. If it were, we would potentially be behind those teams, rather than ahead of them.
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I don't disagree with any of that. I take no position on our seeding prospects amd how those are impacted by our schedule. Hell if we had 3-4 losses in the OOC instead of goimg 11-1 against tomato can alley maybe we wouldn't even make the dance. My only point is our OOC sucks. I think when we have a decent team, in the long view-March- it hurts us to lollygag to a bunch of easy t home wins over a bunch of cupcakes. Those are nothing more than scrimmages. I think in part that's why it took until the end of the regular season for JD to figure out that our best lineup includes Jones at the 2 and Luther at the 4-5, that James Robinson is effective operating without the ball, that Maia is a pretty solid post defender and screener, amd that maybe Mike Young was getting too many minutes.
On top of that those games just suck. They are never televised, there's nobody at them. and our guys just go though the motions.
That said I can't wait for next year's Central Arkansas game.
Jamie used to schedule road games. I wonder if at some point an edict not to came down from Steve. Or maybe Jamie changed his philosophy. But we did used to travel a bit.
To be fair, "at Oakland" wasn't really "at Oakland". It was at the Palace in Auburn Hills, and there were more Michigan State fans there than Oakland fans even though it was an Oakland "home game". In reality that game was a way for Michigan State to get credit in the RPI for playing either a neutral site or road game for a game that was anything but.
So you would have rather lost to WVU and Nova in November and be outside the bubble today?
They played a schedule that allowed THIS TEAM to make the tournament. If we had Dejuan Blair suiting up, by all means, schedule some better competition.
We traveled when we played 16 conference games. When we got two extra P5 opponents, we took out two high OOC matchups.
Pitt's poor record vs top 25 is a bit misleading in how it is being interpreted. Looking at it via Sagarin ratings and breaking it down it looks like this--
1-6 vs top 25: Win vs #9; losses to #4, #5, #6 (2x), #11, #14 [4 top 10, 2 top 15]
5-6 vs top 50; Wins vs #9, #35, #40 (2x), #45; losses the 6 top 15 above.
Two other losses are to #67 NC State (Home) and #52 Clemson--on the road.
This is really not that awful.
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1-6 vs top 25: Win vs #9; losses to #4, #5, #6 (2x), #11, #14 [4 top 10, 2 top 15]
5-6 vs top 50; Wins vs #9, #35, #40 (2x), #45; losses the 6 top 15 above.
Two other losses are to #67 NC State (Home) and #52 Clemson--on the road.
This is really not that awful.
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Kansas was a neutral site game in Chicago (State Farm Classic)
Boston College, Boise State and Providence were neutral site games as part of the Wooden Classic in California.
Northeastern was a "true" road game.
And playing at Oakland is nearly akin to us playing at the Polumbo Center.
YEAR- Final RPI, Proj. Seed, Actual Seed, Variance
2002- 13, 4, 3, (1)
2003- 9, 3, 2, (1)
2004- 6, 2, 3, 1
2005- 38, 10, 9, (1)
2006- 11, 3, 5, 2
2007- 5, 2, 3, 1
2008- 15, 4, 4, -
2009- 2, 1, 1, -
2010- 15, 4, 3, (1)
2011- 10, 3, 1, (2)
2013- 43, 11, 8, (3)
2014- 39, 10, 9, (1)
2002- 13, 4, 3, (1)
2003- 9, 3, 2, (1)
2004- 6, 2, 3, 1
2005- 38, 10, 9, (1)
2006- 11, 3, 5, 2
2007- 5, 2, 3, 1
2008- 15, 4, 4, -
2009- 2, 1, 1, -
2010- 15, 4, 3, (1)
2011- 10, 3, 1, (2)
2013- 43, 11, 8, (3)
2014- 39, 10, 9, (1)
I guess I should have been far more clear - and that's on me - I was listing OOC games not in East Lansing. I understood the tournament games were not "true" road games. But I will say that Izzo seems to have a philosophy that getting out on the road and playing some teams with a pulse helps him.
My main point really was that while I don't think feasting on a ton of cupcakes at home is always constructive I'm not sure that Pitt could do more to overcome the lack of butts in seats by scheduling better. They could add probably one really good OOC opponent, they might get one gifted to them by the ACC/BIG challenge.
The major difference between say 2005 and 2016 is likely the overall winning percentage.
It wasn't at Oaklamd. It was at the Detroit Pistons' home floor, the Palace, with 16,000 fans in attendance-about 90% of whom were wearing green. And Oakland is a pretty good soup can-Cream of Mushroom at a minimum.
Playing-and beating-Kansas away was huge for MSU. If they lose that game, it hardly hurts them. Win it, and they're setting themselves up for a big year amd postseason. Which is exactly what they've done.
We scheduled the same way when we were good. And I'd argue that it hurt those teams in NCAA tournament play, where we performed well below our seeding.
So you are suggesting that playing one or two few good teams in Nov hurt us in March?
