No way 12-1 Pitt gets in over 11-1 ND. Pitt's loss to Western Michigan would be the worst loss by far of any CFP team in its history. ND's loss would be to Top 5/10 Cincy. And the rest of their schedules are similar
They'd each have wins over GT, VT, UVa, and UNC. Pitt's other wins would be a little stronger but not enough to offset the WMU loss
UNH vs Toledo (edge ND)
UMass vs Navy (edge ND)
Duke vs Stanford (edge ND)
Syracuse vs USC (edge ND)
Miami vs FSU (TBD)
Ten vs Purdue (edge Pitt)
Clemson vs Wis (edge Pitt)
Wake/NC St (edge Pitt)
Pitt will be the lowest ranked 1 loss team so we need there to be 3 or fewer teams with 0 or 1 loss
Assuming UGa is in, we need 5 of the following 7 things to happen
- Alabama loses to UGa in the SECCG. I think an 11-2 SEC Champ Bama gets in over 12-1 Pitt
Oklahoma finishes 3-2 (this seems unlikely)
The Big Ten doesn't produce a 0 or 1 loss team. Best thing to root for is MSU over Mich, Mich over OSU, Iowa to lose another then B10W win B10 Champ.
Oregon loses another
Cincy loss
ND loss
The most likely CFP is UGa, OU, B10 East, and Cincy