Let me explain. This is admittedly a stretch in logic for many of you, however, in an effort to find the silver lining in an otherwise grey sky I’d like to propose the following statement. To date, Pitt has recruited exactly as well as PSU has when comparing results to expectations.
If expectations are measured by the average Rivals star rating of all offers extended to recruits (with a non-rated recruit being zero stars) and results are measured by the average Rivals star rating of all commitments, Pitt and PSU have performed identically to-date.
Pitt’s expectations are measured by the composite star rating of their 236 offers, which are as follows (note, 5/0 means 5 offers and no commitments):
5* = 5/0, 4* = 65/1, 3* = 134/4, 2* = 22/2, NR = 10/0
Therefore, the average offer (expectation) is 3.10 stars. Pitt’s results to-date (commitments) are as follows:
4* = 1, 3* = 4, 2* = 2 for an average commitment of 2.86 stars. Pitt’s result to expectation ratio is 2.86 / 3.10 or 92.3%
PSU’s expectations based on their 144 offers are:
5* = 11/0, 4* = 87/9, 3* = 44/8, 2* = 1/1, NR = 1/0 for an expectation of 3.73 stars.
PSU’s results to-date are:
4* = 9, 3* = 8, 2* = 1 for an average commitment of 3.44 stars. PSU’s results to expectation ratio is 3.44 / 3.73 or 92.2%
So, for those who like to split hairs, we are actually outperforming PSU according to expectations.
To those who say “why do you continue bringing PSU into the discussion” I say the relevance should be clear. We are recruiting many of the same players so their performance is very relevant. To those who say this is a ridiculous analysis, well, that is a little tougher to refute. However, this shows numerically that we know we are not yet at PSU’s level for the majority of recruits but as we improve, so will our expectations and our results. But for now, we aren't doing badly. And if you want to look at a comparative scorecard based on where both programs currently are in the food chain, this is not a bad way to compare recruiting performance.
Oh well, some may see this as an effort to shine crap but others may see it as slightly more. In any event, it’s a little fun with numbers during a slow period in Pitt recruiting.
If expectations are measured by the average Rivals star rating of all offers extended to recruits (with a non-rated recruit being zero stars) and results are measured by the average Rivals star rating of all commitments, Pitt and PSU have performed identically to-date.
Pitt’s expectations are measured by the composite star rating of their 236 offers, which are as follows (note, 5/0 means 5 offers and no commitments):
5* = 5/0, 4* = 65/1, 3* = 134/4, 2* = 22/2, NR = 10/0
Therefore, the average offer (expectation) is 3.10 stars. Pitt’s results to-date (commitments) are as follows:
4* = 1, 3* = 4, 2* = 2 for an average commitment of 2.86 stars. Pitt’s result to expectation ratio is 2.86 / 3.10 or 92.3%
PSU’s expectations based on their 144 offers are:
5* = 11/0, 4* = 87/9, 3* = 44/8, 2* = 1/1, NR = 1/0 for an expectation of 3.73 stars.
PSU’s results to-date are:
4* = 9, 3* = 8, 2* = 1 for an average commitment of 3.44 stars. PSU’s results to expectation ratio is 3.44 / 3.73 or 92.2%
So, for those who like to split hairs, we are actually outperforming PSU according to expectations.
To those who say “why do you continue bringing PSU into the discussion” I say the relevance should be clear. We are recruiting many of the same players so their performance is very relevant. To those who say this is a ridiculous analysis, well, that is a little tougher to refute. However, this shows numerically that we know we are not yet at PSU’s level for the majority of recruits but as we improve, so will our expectations and our results. But for now, we aren't doing badly. And if you want to look at a comparative scorecard based on where both programs currently are in the food chain, this is not a bad way to compare recruiting performance.
Oh well, some may see this as an effort to shine crap but others may see it as slightly more. In any event, it’s a little fun with numbers during a slow period in Pitt recruiting.
