Pitt over/under
- Thread starter TIGER-PAUL
- Start date
ESPN's magazine College Football Preview has Pitt 43rd FPI ranking and 6.8 FPI win total!
If Chad stays healthy, which nobody can predict (but I'm sure some will try), take the over. That is very easy money. Pitt lost a LOT of games last year due to its relative inexperience. This year all of those players are a year older, stronger, wiser, more mature. I expect us to win our share of close games this season. I think Pitt wins 8-9 games this season and maybe more if it gets a bounce or two and if all of the key parts remain healthy and eligible.
I can see why they made those predictions. It is really based on unknown Factors:
Factor 1:
New Coach & Staff Adjustments-Every Team with a New Head Coach & Staff taking over usually has a learning period among their coaching and players adapting, especially a New Head Coach that has been a Coordinator and it is first Head Coaching job. This can mean losing 2 to 3 games one should win, or almost won, just by taking over for the first time.
Factor 2:
Game Plans are dependent upon knowing the other Coaches and Teams you are preparing for and that is hard to figure out in the first year too. It not just preparing the players to execute but making sure they do execute in games, and making the right calls at the right time. Chryst made these mistakes all 3 years and cost Pitt 2 to 3 losses each year.
Factor 3:
The importance of staying Healthy is essential for any quality season for any Team. Pitt in particular this Pitt Team cannot afford to lose certain players without major setbacks. This includes Voytik, Boyd, and lesser extent Conner. Pitt also has to find more dependable Wideouts. On Defense, the old coaching adages applies, for every Freshmen that starts expects to lose 1 game, just from making a big mistake as they learn to play at a faster and tougher level of play?
If any the above factors happen during any period of this season, the wins will be more complicated and the losses will only cause more complications factors.
Youngstown State-Win Coach Pat Revenge! 1-0
@Akron-Win But Not Easy! 2-0
@Iowa-Ferentz More Experience! 2-1 Any Factor Above!
@Virginia Tech-Beamer Tough At Home 2-2 Factors 1 or 3!
Virginia-Toss Up Any Factor Above Is Loss, But 3-2 Home Game!
@Georgia Tech-Johnson Hard To Beat Even If No Factor 3-3!
@ Syracuse-Win But Always A Game 4-3!
North Carolina-Toss Up But Any Factor Loss 4-4 Maybe 5-3!
Notre Dame-LOSS! 4-5 or 5-4!
@ Duke-Pivotal Toss Up Culiffe More Experience 4-6 or 6-4!
Louisville-LOSS Petrino Knows How To Coach 4-7 or 6-5!
Miami-More Talent & Experience Coaching But Could Be Good 4-8 or 6-6!
If Coach Pat & Staff are Great Coaches and Chaney makes the Offense even better. The Defense becomes just average at the start of the season and improves during the latter half of the season. Plus, the Special Teams are way better than the last 3 years under Chryst as well as Head Coach Pat & Staff Game Plans, Play Calling, and Learning Curve is good, Pitt could have a 9 to 10 Game win season! But those are big "IFS" and they cannot afford to have any Factors above happen from game to game.
Youngstown State-Can't Lose & Win Big-1-0
@Akron-Payback Time 2-0 Big Win!
@Iowa-Judgment Day, If Good Coaching No Injuries 3-0!
@Virginia Tech-If Ditto Above but Toss Up 4-0 or 3-1!
Virginia- Comfortable Win If No Factors 5-0 or 4-1!
@Georgia Tech-Still Hard To See a Win 5-1 or 4-2!
@ Syracuse-Easy Win If No Factors 6-1 or 5-2!
North Carolina-No Factors & Pitt Should Win 7-1or 5-3!
Notre Dame-If Good Coaching Toss Up But Loss 7-2 or 5-4!
@ Duke-Toss Up, Pickem, 8-2 or 6-4 or 5-5!
Louisville-Even If Good Coaching 8-3 or 6-5 or 5-6!
Miami-Golden On Edge 9-3 or 7-5 or 6-6 or 5-7!
It is very hard to predict Pitt this year just based on Coach Pat First Head Coach Year. Almost every New Head Coach has problems in figuring out not only their Recruits and Players but learning with the Staff all working together.
Additionally, Coach Pat & Staff are going up against Veteran Head Coaches that have almost or over 10 Years Of Experience at Head Coaching in Akron, Iowa, VT, GT, ND, Duke, ULou, and Miami! Only YSU, UVA, UNC, and CUSE will have less than 7 years of experience.
This a tall order for Coach Pat & Staff even with a very talented Offensive Team. This mean Coach Pat & Staff to win 9 to 10 games must beat at least 5 to 6 Veteran Coaching Staffs that already know their Players & Teams better than Coach Pat & Staff that will be learning during this process.
Moreover, if any one Factor happens even in one game, or multiple Factors happen, just making adjustments to those unexpected, new experiences, and going up against older coaches challenges is very tough to win games even with a better Team of Players.
Finally, the schedule unlike Penn State is not an easy one and still needing to rebuild a New Defense and Special teams takes time on judgments, trial and errors on players selections, and players mistake are not corrected overnight, along with coaching calls that may or may not work?
The way I see it, VEGAS and ESPN are playing it safe, and Coach Pat & Staff could be the second coming of Pop Warner, Knute Rockne, and Bear Bryant and Pitt would still struggle to win 9 and 10 games, and can easily win only 5 or 6 games, with all these unknown factors I listed above???
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I'm with doc on this. Something tells me this team could win 10 games if they avoid injury to key contributors. I'm a long suffering pessimist but I have a good feeling about this new coaching staff and returning players.
This is the break out year for Pitt.
Last year Pitt was the youngest team in Div. 1A football and the 3 super sophomores (QB,RB,WR).
Take the over I'm predicting 8-4 this year.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
Last year Pitt was the youngest team in Div. 1A football and the 3 super sophomores (QB,RB,WR).
Take the over I'm predicting 8-4 this year.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
Very worried about transitioning to a new offensive system. Gonna be some hiccups here, always is with new offensive systems. Thats my biggest worry. 2001 ring a bell? Even our OC says it takes 3 years to fully grasp this offense.
Pghfan, very well put, and exactly an unknown on how it will be adapted and if some players are over used and become injured, can change the Pitt Dynamics in a hurry. I error on caution like you, but hope for the best like Doctor & others! Very good post!
The unknown that comes with a new coach in terms of preparing for opponents works in both directions. Our staff will be largely unfamiliar with ACC opponents, but those opponents will have the same issue with us.
Raleighpanther, Good point and I agree but not completely. The Other Coaches already have their Staffs in place and stable in what they have been doing and have been playing against these Pitt Players the last 2 years.
Our Coaches have to adjust to our Players and learn how they will adapt to their New Practices, Game Plans, and Executions of those Game Plans?
On Top of Coach Pat learning about his own Staff and adjusting to being a Head Coach that all reflecets on him as he learns about the Other Coaches and Players he has not coached against the last 2 years??
I agree with you, and if Coach Pat & Staff does indeed bring on new Plays and Game Plans and his Players execute them, then those Other Coaches are in for a Big Surprise and so many of our Posters, Fans, and Alumni will be delighted and I hope you are right!
Coaches Coach Pat & Staff will be facing in 2015 and their last years W-L Record and First Year W-L Records as taking over as a Head Coach:
Bo Pelini: 9-3 2014 NU:
?-? Youngstown State 2015 First Year
9-4 Nebraska 2008 First Year
Terry Bowden: 5-7 2014 Akron
1-11 Akron 2012 First Year
11-0 Auburn 1993 First Year
9-1 Samford 1987 First Year
3-7 Salem 1983 First Year
Kirk Ferentz: 7-6 2014 Iowa
1-11 Iowa 1999 First Year
3-8 Maine 1990 First Year
Frank Beamer: 7-6 2014 VT
2-9 Virginia Tech 1987 First Year
8-3 Murray State 1981 First Year
Mike London: 5-7 2014 UVA
4-8 Virginia 2010 First Year
13-3 Richmond 2008 First Year
Paul Johnson: 11-3 2014 GT
9-4 Georgia Tech 2008 First Year
2-10 Navy 2002 First Year
10-3 Georgia Southern 1997 First Year
Scott Shafer: 3-9 2014 Cuse
7-6 Syracuse 2013 First Year
Larry Fedora: 6-7 2014 UNC
8-4 North Carolina 2012 First Year
7-6 Southern Miss 2008 First Year
Brian Kelly: 8-5 2014 ND
8-5 Notre Dame 2010 First Year
4-7 Central Michigan 2004 First Year
9-3 Grand Valley State 1991 First Year
David Cutcliffe: 9-4 2014 Duke
4-7 Duke 2008 First Year
8-4 Ole Miss 1999 First Year
Bobby Petrino: 9-4 2014 ULou
9-4 ULou 2014 Return
8-4 Western Kentucky 2013
5-7 Arkansas 2008 First Year
9-4 ULou 2003 First Year
Al Golden: 6-7 2014 Miami
6-6 Miami 2011 First Year
1-11 Temple 2006 First Year
Coach Pat Narduzzi
?-? Pitt 2015 First Year Head Coach?
We Shall See?
Bo Pelini: 9-3 2014 NU:
?-? Youngstown State 2015 First Year
9-4 Nebraska 2008 First Year
Terry Bowden: 5-7 2014 Akron
1-11 Akron 2012 First Year
11-0 Auburn 1993 First Year
9-1 Samford 1987 First Year
3-7 Salem 1983 First Year
Kirk Ferentz: 7-6 2014 Iowa
1-11 Iowa 1999 First Year
3-8 Maine 1990 First Year
Frank Beamer: 7-6 2014 VT
2-9 Virginia Tech 1987 First Year
8-3 Murray State 1981 First Year
Mike London: 5-7 2014 UVA
4-8 Virginia 2010 First Year
13-3 Richmond 2008 First Year
Paul Johnson: 11-3 2014 GT
9-4 Georgia Tech 2008 First Year
2-10 Navy 2002 First Year
10-3 Georgia Southern 1997 First Year
Scott Shafer: 3-9 2014 Cuse
7-6 Syracuse 2013 First Year
Larry Fedora: 6-7 2014 UNC
8-4 North Carolina 2012 First Year
7-6 Southern Miss 2008 First Year
Brian Kelly: 8-5 2014 ND
8-5 Notre Dame 2010 First Year
4-7 Central Michigan 2004 First Year
9-3 Grand Valley State 1991 First Year
David Cutcliffe: 9-4 2014 Duke
4-7 Duke 2008 First Year
8-4 Ole Miss 1999 First Year
Bobby Petrino: 9-4 2014 ULou
9-4 ULou 2014 Return
8-4 Western Kentucky 2013
5-7 Arkansas 2008 First Year
9-4 ULou 2003 First Year
Al Golden: 6-7 2014 Miami
6-6 Miami 2011 First Year
1-11 Temple 2006 First Year
Coach Pat Narduzzi
?-? Pitt 2015 First Year Head Coach?
We Shall See?
Captain... You make some really good points.
Those factors you've mentioned play into the success of the team this year.
Your point about coaching adjustments got me thinking. I am not one to buy into the idea that you need to give a few years for a new coach to to get "his players" in place and then get them to learn "his system." I think different coaches walk into different circumstances. Sometimes the cupboard is empty and sometimes it is loaded or at least has enough key players to be able to work with and have success right away. We can not forget about the "known factor" of having Boyd and Conner on the team- the best WR and RB in the ACC. That has to play into the equation of wins and losses. It is something that helps to balance out some of the mistakes that may occur because of a new system and players who are still learning that new system.
One thing I do buy into as being a factor with this new coaching staff in particular is that we have a situation where the new head coach has no previous head coaching experience and the staff he has is made up of mostly coaches he is working with for the first time. PN was not some head coach at another university who just brought along his staff of coaches he's worked with for years.
Still, there are so many reasons to see that this year's team and coaching staff have enough going for it to come away with 9 or more wins. Less than 7 wins would be a major disappointment.
This season Pitt will have a number of things going for them:
- the best RB in the conference
- the best WR in the conference
- an offensive line that may be better than it's been in a long time
- a dual threat QB who looks to be ready to take the next step forward
- a few tough TEs with great hands.
- a new head coach who was one of the best DCs in the country
- potentially weaker ACC opponents (many teams have lost key star players)
If our ACC opponents do prove to be weaker this coming season (and we should be able to figure that out several weeks into the season) then it would be reasonable to think Pitt should be able to win at least a few more games this year (as we should be better).
If Pitt can't win at least a few more games this seasons, what does that mean for the team next year when they are likely to be without Boyd and Conner and when those opponents who have lost key players for this year will likely have found new emerging star players.
Is Pitt going to be a team this season who yet again finds excuse after excuse for losing games they could have won or are they going to be a team who shows on the field all of the reasons they can beat anyone they play?
Pitt needs to strike now... And win the ACC this year (or at least the Coastal division). PN needs to be the man who makes it happen with the help of his staff and the leadership of Boyd, Conner and Voytik).
H2P
I agree that there could be some hiccups with the new offensive system, but what troubles me most is the fact that our OC is saying it takes 3 years to fully grasp the system. Is the system really that difficult to learn or is he just making that statement to help ensure he has job security for at least three years. Either way, it concerns me a little.
I mean, he's impressed me so far, but I can't shake what some Arkansas fans have said about him and his odd play calling particularly at crucial moments of a game. Sounded a lot like the issues many of us Pitt fans were having with PC the past three years.
We will find out soon enough. I hope he proves that my concerns are nothing to be concerned about.
VEGAS/ESPN OVER/UNDER BY RANKINGS:
Sportsbook operator CG Technology released Over/Unders on win totals for 67 college football teams, and Ohio State stands apart from the rest. The Buckeyes are listed at 11 wins, the Over juiced at -165, meaning you have to risk $165 to win $100. The Under is priced at +135. CG Technology pegged Baylor and TCU at 10 wins, and no other team is in double digits. "Ohio State is tricky because you could actually put 12 as the number," Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports, told CBSSports.com. "I say that as a joke but they're going to be the favorite in every game. They go undefeated in the majority of simulations we ran. "You can either open it at 11.5 or 11, but juice the Over." Offshore sportsbook 5Dimes released win totals a month ago, but 5Dimes is only taking $100 max bets. CG Technology, which runs eight sportsbooks, including those at Venetian, Cosmopolitan and the Palms, is taking $1,000 bets now and will raise the limit to $5,000 as the season approaches. The first bet came in on none other than lowly Illinois. A professional bettor wagered the max on Over 4 wins at +145. "I have no idea why -- we're going to leave it and see if someone else touches it," Simbal said. "This is the most interesting part, seeing how people start betting. We can see which numbers we missed on and try to apply that going forward." Here are Simbal's thoughts on a few teams that were hard to peg:
Notre Dame, 9 wins (-115 either way): "Notre Dame is always tough because of the amount of action they usually get from fans, so you want to tweak that to the higher side. We saw the new QB (Malik Zaire) play in the bowl game, but it's a small sample and how much of a dropoff is there? Plus, Notre Dame's schedule is strange. They've got a lot of very easy games and a lot of really hard games and no real in-between games."
Baylor, 10 wins (Over -105, Under -125); TCU, 10 wins (Over -140, Under -110): "They play each other [Nov. 27 at TCU] so the loser of that game cannot afford any other losses. As always, Baylor plays nobody out of conference. They do play Oklahoma, but at home, which helps. They don't play Oklahoma State. TCU, on the other hand, plays at Oklahoma and at Kansas State."
Wisconsin, 9.5 wins (Over -140, Under -110): "Questionable QB situation, and they're going to be a big underdog in the first game they play (vs. Alabama in Arlington, Texas), so you're behind the 8-ball there. The interesting thing is no Michigan State or Ohio State on the schedule. Toughest game is at Nebraska. I can understand where 10 could be the number, but it seemed to make more sense to use 9.5 because their offense was predicated on one guy last year and he's gone." Here's the full list of CG Technology's win totals.
ACC
Florida State: 9.5 (-130u)
Notre Dame: 9 (-115)*
Clemson: 9 (-135u)
Virginia Tech: 8 (-125u)
North Carolina: 8 (-150u)
Georgia Tech: 7.5 (-140o)
Louisville: 7.5 (-125o)
Duke: 7 (-130o)
NC State: 7 (-150o)
Miami: 6 (-130o)
Pittsburgh: 6 (-125o)
Boston College: 5.5 (-115)
Syracuse: 4.5 (-115)
Virginia: 4 (-130o)
Wake Forest: 3.5 (-135u)
Big Ten
Ohio State: 11.5 (-180u)
Wisconsin: 9.5 (-140o)
Michigan State: 9.5 (-125u)
Penn State: 8 (-125o)
Nebraska: 8 (-140o)
Iowa: 7.5 (-120u)
Minnesota: 6 (-145u)
Minnesota: 6 (-145u)
Northwestern: 6 (-140o)
Indiana: 5.5 (-130u)
Rutgers: 5 (-120o)
Maryland: 4.5 (-120o)
Illinois: 4 (-175o)
Purdue: 4 (-120o)
Big 12
TCU: 10 (-140o)
Baylor 10 (-125u)
Oklahoma: 8.5 (-160o)
Oklahoma State: 7.5 (-140o)
West Virginia: 7.5 (-115)
Kansas State: 7 (-140u)
Texas: 6 (-130o)
Texas Tech: 5.5 (-125o)
Iowa State: 3 (-115)
Kansas: 1.5 (-145o)
Pac-12
Oregon: 9.5 (-130o)
UCLA: 9 (-140u)
USC: 9 (-115)
Stanford: 8.5
Arizona State: 8 (-125u)
Arizona: 7.5 (-140o)
Utah: 7.5 (-130u)
California: 5.5 (-135u)
Washington State: 5 (-125u)
Colorado: 5 (-140u)
Oregon State: 4 (-125u)
Washington: 4.5 (-140o)
SEC
Alabama: 9.5 (-135o)
Georgia: 9 (-125o)
LSU: 8.5 (-130o)
Ole Miss: 8.5 (-115)
Auburn: 8.5 (-130o)
Tennessee: 8 (-160u)
Texas A&M: 8 (-120u)
Arkansas 8 (-140u)
Missouri: 7.5 (-135o)
Mississippi State: 7 (-145u)
Florida: 7 (-130o)
South Carolina: 6.5 (-155o)
Kentucky: 5.5 (-130o)
Vanderbilt: 3.5 (-135u)
LINK:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...es-win-totals-ohio-state-in-a-class-by-itself
Sportsbook operator CG Technology released Over/Unders on win totals for 67 college football teams, and Ohio State stands apart from the rest. The Buckeyes are listed at 11 wins, the Over juiced at -165, meaning you have to risk $165 to win $100. The Under is priced at +135. CG Technology pegged Baylor and TCU at 10 wins, and no other team is in double digits. "Ohio State is tricky because you could actually put 12 as the number," Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports, told CBSSports.com. "I say that as a joke but they're going to be the favorite in every game. They go undefeated in the majority of simulations we ran. "You can either open it at 11.5 or 11, but juice the Over." Offshore sportsbook 5Dimes released win totals a month ago, but 5Dimes is only taking $100 max bets. CG Technology, which runs eight sportsbooks, including those at Venetian, Cosmopolitan and the Palms, is taking $1,000 bets now and will raise the limit to $5,000 as the season approaches. The first bet came in on none other than lowly Illinois. A professional bettor wagered the max on Over 4 wins at +145. "I have no idea why -- we're going to leave it and see if someone else touches it," Simbal said. "This is the most interesting part, seeing how people start betting. We can see which numbers we missed on and try to apply that going forward." Here are Simbal's thoughts on a few teams that were hard to peg:
Notre Dame, 9 wins (-115 either way): "Notre Dame is always tough because of the amount of action they usually get from fans, so you want to tweak that to the higher side. We saw the new QB (Malik Zaire) play in the bowl game, but it's a small sample and how much of a dropoff is there? Plus, Notre Dame's schedule is strange. They've got a lot of very easy games and a lot of really hard games and no real in-between games."
Baylor, 10 wins (Over -105, Under -125); TCU, 10 wins (Over -140, Under -110): "They play each other [Nov. 27 at TCU] so the loser of that game cannot afford any other losses. As always, Baylor plays nobody out of conference. They do play Oklahoma, but at home, which helps. They don't play Oklahoma State. TCU, on the other hand, plays at Oklahoma and at Kansas State."
Wisconsin, 9.5 wins (Over -140, Under -110): "Questionable QB situation, and they're going to be a big underdog in the first game they play (vs. Alabama in Arlington, Texas), so you're behind the 8-ball there. The interesting thing is no Michigan State or Ohio State on the schedule. Toughest game is at Nebraska. I can understand where 10 could be the number, but it seemed to make more sense to use 9.5 because their offense was predicated on one guy last year and he's gone." Here's the full list of CG Technology's win totals.
ACC
Florida State: 9.5 (-130u)
Notre Dame: 9 (-115)*
Clemson: 9 (-135u)
Virginia Tech: 8 (-125u)
North Carolina: 8 (-150u)
Georgia Tech: 7.5 (-140o)
Louisville: 7.5 (-125o)
Duke: 7 (-130o)
NC State: 7 (-150o)
Miami: 6 (-130o)
Pittsburgh: 6 (-125o)
Boston College: 5.5 (-115)
Syracuse: 4.5 (-115)
Virginia: 4 (-130o)
Wake Forest: 3.5 (-135u)
Big Ten
Ohio State: 11.5 (-180u)
Wisconsin: 9.5 (-140o)
Michigan State: 9.5 (-125u)
Penn State: 8 (-125o)
Nebraska: 8 (-140o)
Iowa: 7.5 (-120u)
Minnesota: 6 (-145u)
Minnesota: 6 (-145u)
Northwestern: 6 (-140o)
Indiana: 5.5 (-130u)
Rutgers: 5 (-120o)
Maryland: 4.5 (-120o)
Illinois: 4 (-175o)
Purdue: 4 (-120o)
Big 12
TCU: 10 (-140o)
Baylor 10 (-125u)
Oklahoma: 8.5 (-160o)
Oklahoma State: 7.5 (-140o)
West Virginia: 7.5 (-115)
Kansas State: 7 (-140u)
Texas: 6 (-130o)
Texas Tech: 5.5 (-125o)
Iowa State: 3 (-115)
Kansas: 1.5 (-145o)
Pac-12
Oregon: 9.5 (-130o)
UCLA: 9 (-140u)
USC: 9 (-115)
Stanford: 8.5
Arizona State: 8 (-125u)
Arizona: 7.5 (-140o)
Utah: 7.5 (-130u)
California: 5.5 (-135u)
Washington State: 5 (-125u)
Colorado: 5 (-140u)
Oregon State: 4 (-125u)
Washington: 4.5 (-140o)
SEC
Alabama: 9.5 (-135o)
Georgia: 9 (-125o)
LSU: 8.5 (-130o)
Ole Miss: 8.5 (-115)
Auburn: 8.5 (-130o)
Tennessee: 8 (-160u)
Texas A&M: 8 (-120u)
Arkansas 8 (-140u)
Missouri: 7.5 (-135o)
Mississippi State: 7 (-145u)
Florida: 7 (-130o)
South Carolina: 6.5 (-155o)
Kentucky: 5.5 (-130o)
Vanderbilt: 3.5 (-135u)
LINK:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...es-win-totals-ohio-state-in-a-class-by-itself
I agree that there could be some hiccups with the new offensive system, but what troubles me most is the fact that our OC is saying it takes 3 years to fully grasp the system. Is the system really that difficult to learn or is he just making that statement to help ensure he has job security for at least three years. Either way, it concerns me a little.
Yep, and it does not mean Pitt has SEC Talent from where the OC came from as well? Yet, it seems each Pitt New OC under Harris, Wanny, Graham and Chryst did just that, they never adjusted to the talent they had in their first years, they just tore out the old system and adopted their own and it took time changing those systems and cost wins. One reason why I had hopes of Rudolph remaining as OC plus Recruiting, but he left for Wisky or Coach Pat did not want him? It very much depends on Coach Pat judgment and selection of Chaney as OC, and we shall see?
I mean, he's impressed me so far, but I can't shake what some Arkansas fans have said about him and his odd play calling particularly at crucial moments of a game. Sounded a lot like the issues many of us Pitt fans were having with PC the past three years.
We will find out soon enough. I hope he proves that my concerns are nothing to be concerned about
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