Oddsmakers think PITT stinks
- Thread starter jivecat
- Start date
I say good. I sense that Narduzzi likes to play, and seems somewhat successful at playing, the disrespect card.
I saw that. Weird that they give Pitt better odds to beat Clemson than Louisville and SMU?
Can you bet now on the Pitt vs SMU and Louisville games? Take Pitt. Stay away from Clemson.
I don't think I would put Louisville in the same class as SMU and certainly not Clemson. I'd say...
Syracuse - 55% chance to win
Virginia - 65% chance to win
Louisville - 45% chance to win
BC - 50% chance to win
Clemson - 25% chance to win
SMU - 40% chance to win
Syracuse - 55% chance to win
Virginia - 65% chance to win
Louisville - 45% chance to win
BC - 50% chance to win
Clemson - 25% chance to win
SMU - 40% chance to win
Pitt has a 141 2/3% chance to win all of those games.
How many was Pitt favored in 7-8 weeks ago?
25% seems low for Lville. Maybe a little low for SMU, but not that far off.
The analytic models don’t think Pitt is bad, but they aren’t as impressed with them as the record would indicate. Analytic models don’t look at records at all. Only quality of play compared to the average team.
F+ has Clemson 11, SMU 20, and Lville 22.
Pitt is 38.
But I also don’t think what you’re projected to win the rest of the year is based game to game like you are making it out.
Like Vegas preseason can have a team favorited to win every single individual game. But that doesn’t mean it projects the team to go 12-0.
Just because Pitt is favored in only two of the games, doesn’t necessarily mean the projection are just for two wins.
The analytic models don’t think Pitt is bad, but they aren’t as impressed with them as the record would indicate. Analytic models don’t look at records at all. Only quality of play compared to the average team.
F+ has Clemson 11, SMU 20, and Lville 22.
Pitt is 38.
But I also don’t think what you’re projected to win the rest of the year is based game to game like you are making it out.
Like Vegas preseason can have a team favorited to win every single individual game. But that doesn’t mean it projects the team to go 12-0.
Just because Pitt is favored in only two of the games, doesn’t necessarily mean the projection are just for two wins.
I believe they are projected to win 8.8 games...so 9. Which is higher then the preseason estimate for wins which was 5-6 wins.
On the road at SMU, I think 40% is a little high.
People are hyping up the Cal defense, and it ranks 32 in F+.
SMU ranks 27.
The difference is Cal’s offense is 61, while SMU’s is 19.
So they aren’t being projected to actually go 2-3, even if only favored in two of the games.
Did any of the stats predict vandy would beat Bama ? What did the stats predict Pitt’s record would be now ?
If your into it I suppose all that stuff is interesting. But sometimes teams just have that it factor going that defies stats and odds. So far Pitt seems to be doing just that Part of it is the talent on this team was way under rated coming into the season based on last years team .
If your into it I suppose all that stuff is interesting. But sometimes teams just have that it factor going that defies stats and odds. So far Pitt seems to be doing just that Part of it is the talent on this team was way under rated coming into the season based on last years team .
I was actually going to put that at 35%, but I still can't get past the early depth woes recent G5-to-P4 teams are having. Cincy (3-9), Houston (4-8), BYU (5-7), and UCF (6-7) all finished with losing records their first years in the B12, and Cincy is currently playing with an FCS-level d line. Are the body blows going to start adding up for SMU, or have they done enough in the portal to account for that?
It wouldn't surprise me at all if they run us out of the building. It also wouldn't surprise me if we knock their o line around a little at get to that QB.
I don’t think they have enough depth to account for injuries.
But they probably have just enough depth to hold up without injuries.
Elijah Roberts is probably the best overall lineman in the game. So the portal has given them just enough.
Weird that they give Pitt better odds to beat Clemson than Louisville and SMU? .... Not really, home vs road and Pitt has a decent recent history with Clemson and the perception around SMU is that they are pretty damn good..They get 3 points for being at home plus another 1.5 points for facing a qb with a goofy name like Klubnik..
We really aren't that talented. I'd say we are 2-3 point favorite to beat Syracuse. We are winning all the 50/50 games and getting some luck along the way (disconcerting signal penalty on 4th vs Cincy, 13 penalties and missed 2 point conversions vs Cal, miracle throw and catch vs WVU). We are 3 plays away from 3-3. That's just how football is. We cant keep winning all these 50/50 games. Or can we? TCU did. Its just almost impossible to win 8 or so coin flips in a row.
SMU has a tough game the week before against DUKE, whereas we have a long week to prepare after a Thursday night home game against Cuse.
Duke can’t score. I’m not saying SMU is going to put 50 on them.
But SMU will be able to just crockpot them all game if that’s what they want to do.
But they will blow them out. You’re going to have to be able to answer the scores against SMU. And Duke can’t.
8 weeks ago, how many games were the Panthers favored in when looking at the entire season?
These numbers and projections are interesting for fans to look at, and that's about it. An idiot could tell you Pitt's schedule is harder in the second half of the year, but nobody knows what % anyone has to win 3 weeks down the road.
They've gotten dragged into a few rock/rockish fights this season, which is why I have hope for Pitt. You could definitely argue the Nevada and BYU games were too early for such a transfer-heavy team to be clicking. But 34-27 against Louisville seems like a pretty Pitt-esque score this season. The other games, though - yeah, those are the types we'd want to avoid. Hopefully our fast-paced offense isn't playing into their hands.
This thread is a hoot! NOBODY knows about things like injuries; weather conditions; any other unknowns.
Every week takes on a unique character and set of circumstances. Pitt needs to keep improving. On both sides of the ball. The D has looked a lot better the past couple of weeks, IMO. Would help to get everyone healthy and stay that way.
The more video opponents get on the Pitt O will allow them to better prepare. So Pitt will have to continue to be creative and add new wrinkles. But that is something that I think OCKB will embrace. The OL will be an important aspect regarding that.
It’s a cliché, but this is absolutely a 1 game at a time deal. 6-0 is over with. What matters is what lies ahead.
Every week takes on a unique character and set of circumstances. Pitt needs to keep improving. On both sides of the ball. The D has looked a lot better the past couple of weeks, IMO. Would help to get everyone healthy and stay that way.
The more video opponents get on the Pitt O will allow them to better prepare. So Pitt will have to continue to be creative and add new wrinkles. But that is something that I think OCKB will embrace. The OL will be an important aspect regarding that.
It’s a cliché, but this is absolutely a 1 game at a time deal. 6-0 is over with. What matters is what lies ahead.
The defense dominated BYU. Just bad turnover luck due to playing the wrong QB.
The offense just needs to score. You can’t let SMU’s defense pin its ears back, because that’s what it is good at.
Once they got their QB figured out and started going really fast again, they haven’t really looked back.
A close game against on the road against a Lville team in the power poll Top 25.
He graded out as the best overall defensive player in the AAC last year according to PFF.
Is there another OL/DL on SMU or Pitt you think would do the same?
This thread is all over the place. Are you specifically talking about the best lineman in the SMU/Pitt game? If so, I can see that. But I can just start rattling off names I like better at DE in the college game.
Compare with--ESPN Analytics:
Syracuse - 72.6% chance to win
Virginia - 71.2% chance to win
@ Louisville - 26.3% chance to win
@ BC - 53.5% chance to win
Clemson - 30.0% chance to win
@ SMU - 28.4% chance to win
In total it predicts 2.82 wins = 2 wins almost certain (8-4) and 3 wins likely (9-3).
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Agree.
And i might add, Vandy had a tremendous letdown after beating Bama. So much, that they went on the road and beat Kentucky.
Happy to be a terrible 6-0 team
Sure better than the alternative , like last season .
Sure better than the alternative , like last season .
We have a good O coordinator this year. If Jurkovich had Bell last year, we would have made a bowl.
Eh, I don't know about that. Jurkovec was skipping 5-yard crossing routes. I don't know how you scheme around that.
Cignetti, for as bad as he was, was the OC when we went 9-4 and could have won just about every game we lost.
Yeah, I don't think most OCs would have rolled with Jukovec. But that wasn't the hypothetical.
I’d say that’s pretty accurate.
Pitt must continue beating the teams they should beat (Syracuse & Virginia) So far, so good. They must split with the remaining teams (Louisville, BC, Clemson and SMU).
As for the next two games, Syracuse has a good offense, but not much of a running game. They do it through the air. Pitt needs to put the heat on the QB. SMU is a mirror image of Pitt. They are playing at home, and they are good at creating turnovers. Pitt has not had a meaningful turnover in the last two games. I think (hoping I’m wrong) that may be our first loss of the season.
Vegas had Pitt’s win total set at 5.5 (-120 for the Under) before the season. We’ve exceeded expectations.
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