Pitt's path to the NCAA Tournament

[DT_PITT]

I think most P5 teams would be happy with winning 2 of 3 road games in a row v. Nwestern, NC State and Vandy. Sure, should've won Vandy, but it's a road SEC game. Vandy was inferior, but they made some big-time shots down the stretch. Pitt would inch, and they'd match it.

Capel should've lightened up on the non-conference foes. Not too many teams play WVU, Michigan, VCU, Vandy, N Western in the non-conference. I'm pretty sure Dixon never played this many P6 teams in the OOC ever.

Glad Pitt is battled tested, but you need to stack wins.

I don't think you are making a good case calling WVU, Michigan, Vandy and Nwestern a tough schedule. And VCU isn't P6 - they are A-10.

According to Pomeroy, Northwestern is #69 and Vandy is #96.

And again, according to Pomeroy, we've played the #186 schedule. I'd hardly call us battle tested.

 

[Ski11585]

No. Remove the 3 blue bloods/almost blue bloods (ie UVa) who will make it every year, its a 12 team 1 bid league. Miami looking like they can get a 2nd bid

If you do this for every conference they’re all mediocre!

 

[Wanstash21]

I don't think you are making a good case calling WVU, Michigan, Vandy and Nwestern a tough schedule. And VCU isn't P6 - they are A-10.

According to Pomeroy, Northwestern is #69 and Vandy is #96.

And again, according to Pomeroy, we've played the #186 schedule. I'd hardly call us battle tested.

WVU, Michigan and VCU in the first 4 games is really tough. I'd call that battle tested.

Vandy and Nwestern aren't top P5 teams, but they're P5 opponents.. on the road. Again, on the road. Pitt will be facing similarly talented teams in the ACC, on the road. I'd call that battle tested.

You don't have to agree.. that's fine. My main point was that Capel could've thrown together a Dixon OOC and we'd have maybe 1 loss at the most. My point is pretty much proven with us being ahead of TCU (as of Monday) in the NET Rankings, even though they only have 1 loss.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

I don't think you are making a good case calling WVU, Michigan, Vandy and Nwestern a tough schedule. And VCU isn't P6 - they are A-10.

According to Pomeroy, Northwestern is #69 and Vandy is #96.

And again, according to Pomeroy, we've played the #186 schedule. I'd hardly call us battle tested.

Fwiw, TCU ooc has Cal, Utah, SMU, Providence and Iowa…

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

WVU, Michigan and VCU in the first 4 games is really tough. I'd call that battle tested.

Vandy and Nwestern aren't top P5 teams, but they're P5 opponents.. on the road. Again, on the road. Pitt will be facing similarly talented teams in the ACC, on the road. I'd call that battle tested.

You don't have to agree.. that's fine. My main point was that Capel could've thrown together a Dixon OOC and we'd have maybe 1 loss at the most. My point is pretty much proven with us being ahead of TCU (as of Monday) in the KenPom, even though they only have 1 loss.

???
TCU is ranked 45th and Pitt is 77th.

He should’ve put together an easier OOC and stacked wins. If they were to have a good conference record, 12-8, 13-7, make them keep you out with 24 wins and feel the wrath of the national media.

 

[Ski11585]

Fwiw, TCU ooc has Cal, Utah, SMU, Providence and Iowa…

I miss having a ranked team. I hope Dixon puts it together and makes a nice tourney run this year.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

I miss having a ranked team. I hope Dixon puts it together and makes a nice tourney run this year.

I could see it going the other way. Coaches nowadays talk about how they love their team when they’re juniors, or new, but when they come back together they tire of playing with each other because these guys are so used to playing w new teammates. We’re seeing it a bit with UNC.

 

[Wanstash21]

???
TCU is ranked 45th and Pitt is 77th.

He should’ve put together an easier OOC and stacked wins. If they were to have a good conference record, 12-8, 13-7, make them keep you out with 24 wins and feel the wrath of the national media.

sorry, NET rankings

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

sorry, NET rankings

The NET is a joke

 

[Wanstash21]

The NET is a joke

well it's the tool they use come March so I think it's noteworthy.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

well it's the tool they use come March so I think it's noteworthy.

Pitt won’t have to worry about it

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Louisville beats an 8-1 WKU last night. They won’t be an auto win at the Yum! Center

 

[PittPharm2002]

The only real path to the ncaaT is winning the ACCT, let’s be honest

 

[Chescat]

WVU, Michigan and VCU in the first 4 games is really tough. I'd call that battle tested.

Vandy and Nwestern aren't top P5 teams, but they're P5 opponents.. on the road. Again, on the road. Pitt will be facing similarly talented teams in the ACC, on the road. I'd call that battle tested.

You don't have to agree.. that's fine. My main point was that Capel could've thrown together a Dixon OOC and we'd have maybe 1 loss at the most. My point is pretty much proven with us being ahead of TCU (as of Monday) in the NET Rankings, even though they only have 1 loss.

Actually you've made a
good point about these
teams making us "battle
tested." Given where this
year's Pitt team is, if we
played the Celtics we
wouldn't be any more
battle tested than what
we are right now. Those
teams plus Northestern
are about what and who
we are. They all would fit
in the lower mid range,
or lower range of the ACC.
Michigan, I'd call them the
best of the group. We ain't
challenging for a league
championship. Thus, we're
"battle tested" for the
mid and lower level of the
ACC. I agree with you.

 

[Chescat]

Louisville beats an 8-1 WKU last night. They won’t be an auto win at the Yum! Center

I watched that game. It
was the second time I
saw Louisville. Yes, they
did win, but they still
stink.. WKU, may have
been 8-1 but they stunk
even more than L.

Anyone think that it's an
automatic W for Pitt
against L, think again.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

My main point was that Capel could've thrown together a Dixon OOC and we'd have maybe 1 loss at the most.

If we listed the 13 Dixon seasons by non-conference strength of schedule on Pomeroy and we added this season for an even 14, this season would rank as the 7th toughest. The average non-conference SOS in Dixon's 13 seasons was 257. This year's non-conference SOS so far is 265.

So, ah, yeah.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

If we listed the 13 Dixon seasons by non-conference strength of schedule on Pomeroy and we added this season for an even 14, this season would rank as the 7th toughest. The average non-conference SOS in Dixon's 13 seasons was 257. This year's non-conference SOS so far is 265.

So, ah, yeah.

But Dixon handled all those teams easily so it doesn’t count!!!

 

[Wanstash21]

If we listed the 13 Dixon seasons by non-conference strength of schedule on Pomeroy and we added this season for an even 14, this season would rank as the 7th toughest. The average non-conference SOS in Dixon's 13 seasons was 257. This year's non-conference SOS so far is 265.

So, ah, yeah.

lol well that's not what I was arguing and that's not how you look at it. I was saying Capel has played quite a few P6 teams .. more than Dixon did. Looking at the OOC as a whole isn't what I was saying.. Dixon wouldn't schedule hardly any P5 teams. Capel did, but backfilled with garbage. That will bring down the average Kenpom, but doesn't mean he didn't play much tougher games than Jamie did.

Since you did the exercise once, go through and do the top 5 teams played non-conference and come back to me with the averages.

WVU - 20
UM - 44
VCU - 123
NW - 69
Vandy - 96

UT Martin - 299
Alabama St - 350
F Dickinson - 335
W & Mary - 297
Sacred Heart - 304
N Florida - 216

 

[Wanstash21]

But Dixon handled all those teams easily so it doesn’t count!!!

I'll do double or nothing at 8 wins.. or you can just keep shootin off on here and act like I don't know what I'm talking about 😂

or I'll gladly bet Pitt makes it back to the NCAAT sooner than PSU does.. we can go double or nothing on that since you think PSU is in a MUCH better state right now lmao

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

I'll do double or nothing at 8 wins.. or you can just keep shootin off on here and act like I don't know what I'm talking about 😂

or I'll gladly bet Pitt makes it back to the NCAAT sooner than PSU does.. we can go double or nothing on that since you think PSU is in a MUCH better state right now lmao

I don’t think PSU has an easier path to the NCAAT than Pitt will assuming a coaching change is made. The Big Ten is a much stronger conference than the ACC and will continue to be. Micah Shrewsberry is an infinitely better coach/program builder in his short time as a head coach. Not sure anyone could disagree with that.

Jeff Capel will never make an NCAA tournament at Pitt. Congrats on setting the bar high for the oldest team in the ACC at 8 league wins though.

I also have no desire to root for Penn State basketball or their coaches. I hope they lose every game like I do in every sport Penn State participates in.

 

[Wanstash21]

I don’t think PSU has an easier path to the NCAAT than Pitt will assuming a coaching change is made. The Big Ten is a much stronger conference than the ACC and will continue to be. Micah Shrewsberry is an infinitely better coach/program builder in his short time as a head coach. Not sure anyone could disagree with that.

Jeff Capel will never make an NCAA tournament at Pitt. Congrats on setting the bar high for the oldest team in the ACC at 8 league wins though.

I also have no desire to root for Penn State basketball or their coaches. I hope they lose every game like I do in every sport Penn State participates in.

I didn't say you had desire for them to win.. but if you think they're so good, why not make some money off it?

 

[Chescat]

I don’t think PSU has an easier path to the NCAAT than Pitt will assuming a coaching change is made. The Big Ten is a much stronger conference than the ACC and will continue to be. Micah Shrewsberry is an infinitely better coach/program builder in his short time as a head coach. Not sure anyone could disagree with that.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

I didn't say you had desire for them to win.. but if you think they're so good, why not make some money off it?

Because if I have money on pSU winning I’ll root for them? I hate pSU but love my money

 

[Chescat]

You guys can duke it
out over Capel, Dixon,
schedules etc.....BUT,
when it comes to
PSU and their coach,
it's a no brainer. Their
coach Shrewsberry
is very good, and IMO
far superior to Capel.
They're 8-2 having
beaten Mich St and
ranked Illinois. They lost
by two at Va Tech and
by seven at Clemson.

I posted earlier on here
about how good this
guy is and what he
IMO is going to do
at PSU. I too am NO
PSU fan.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

You guys can duke it
out over Capel, Dixon,
schedules etc.....BUT,
when it comes to
PSU and their coach,
it's a no brainer. Their
coach Shrewsberry
is very good, and IMO
far superior to Capel.
They're 8-2 having
beaten Mich St and
ranked Illinois. They lost
by two at Va Tech and
by seven at Clemson.

I posted earlier on here
about how good this
guy is and what he
IMO is going to do
at PSU. I too am NO
PSU fan.

Alright, well he's 21-20 hc so he wins the Capel matchup.
But the rest, based on what? He kept it close with Clemson?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I was saying Capel has played quite a few P6 teams .. more than Dixon did

So what? I mean literally, so what? We played Vanderbilt. They are a P6 team. So obviously they were a tougher game than say, an American team like Houston, right? Or a WCC team like Gonzaga. Or a Mountain West team like Utah State, right? Or a CUSA team like UAB, right? Or, well you get the idea. Or at least you should.

Which conference a team plays in doesn't determine if they are good or not. That gets determined on the court. Which surely you know.

Care less about the name on the front of the jersey and more about the quality of the players wearing the jerseys and you'll be on the right track.

 

[Wanstash21]

So what? I mean literally, so what? We played Vanderbilt. They are a P6 team. So obviously they were a tougher game than say, an American team like Houston, right? Or a WCC team like Gonzaga. Or a Mountain West team like Utah State, right? Or a CUSA team like UAB, right? Or, well you get the idea. Or at least you should.

Which conference a team plays in doesn't determine if they are good or not. That gets determined on the court. Which surely you know.

Care less about the name on the front of the jersey and more about the quality of the players wearing the jerseys and you'll be on the right track.

you're still missing the point...

Dixon loaded up with teams from 150-350.

Look at this example.. for the sake of keeping it even, we'll look at 10 OOC games by Kenpom

Sch. #1 (average 170 ken pom)

150
150
160
160
170
170
180
180
190
190

Sch #2 (average 194 ken pom)

20
20
50
50
250
250
300
300
350
350



**which schedule is easier? certainly not the 170 kenpom, even though it's average is "tougher". Looking at the average makes zero sense.. if you're a P5 team and play a team that's 150 kenpom v. 250 kenpom, is that really a tougher game? sure.. but you should win that game regardless.

do you understand?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

do you understand?

Yeah, I understand.

You posted something that made no sense, and now you are trying to make something up to defend it.

Although maybe I'm wrong. Show me the Jeff Capel NC schedule with two top 20 teams and two more top 50 teams on it and then I'll say that you might be on to something.

By the way, it's clear that math is not your strong suit, but just eyeballing it if a team of Pitt's caliber this season played the two schedules that you laid out their actual win probabilities would add up to really close to the same. Meaning that they would both be expected to win about 6.5 games out of ten on average.

 

[Wanstash21]

Yeah, I understand.

You posted something that made no sense, and now you are trying to make something up to defend it.

Although maybe I'm wrong. Show me the Jeff Capel NC schedule with two top 20 teams and two more top 50 teams on it and then I'll say that you might be on to something.

By the way, it's clear that math is not your strong suit, but just eyeballing it if a team of Pitt's caliber this season played the two schedules that you laid out their actual win probabilities would add up to really close to the same. Meaning that they would both be expected to win about 6.5 games out of ten on average.

maybe comprehension isn't your strong suit - I said it's an example to show that average kenpom means nothing.

If this Pitt team played Sch. #1, they'd have 1-2 losses MAYBE. BTW, Dixon played majority of his OOC games at HOME. Capel went to Brookyln to play 3, then went on a 3-game road trip.. Please show me where Dixon scheduled something like that?

 

[Vader_Storm]

Actually you've made a
good point about these
teams making us "battle
tested." Given where this
year's Pitt team is, if we
played the Celtics we
wouldn't be any more
battle tested than what
we are right now. Those
teams plus Northestern
are about what and who
we are. They all would fit
in the lower mid range,
or lower range of the ACC.
Michigan, I'd call them the
best of the group. We ain't
challenging for a league
championship. Thus, we're
"battle tested" for the
mid and lower level of the
ACC. I agree with you.

Right now, they are not close to that. The trio of West Virginia, Michigan, and NC State are 20th, 44th, and 51st in the country in pomeroy's efficiency power rankings. In the NET tournament rankings, West Virginia is currently 8th, NC State 54th, and Michigan 80th. Nationally.


These numbers will move, but these 3 teams would smoke the bottom of the acc and probably a big chunk of the middle. The acc this year is terrible.


Im not going to suggest what Northwestern is, but they sit at 69th, which for them, is decent, for now.


Vanderbilt and VCU are not good, that, I agree with.

 

[Chescat]

Alright, well he's 21-20 hc so he wins the Capel matchup.
But the rest, based on what? He kept it close with Clemson?

Well, let's try this.
He's 8-2 right now.
You didn't mention
Va Tech. They're good,
real good. The W-L
record you mentioned
also reflected last year.
That year he took over
a program in trouble.
.
What else is it "based on?"
You don't have to
accept this but......my
eye test. I've watched
them. They're well
coached and are playing
well. They did last year
too, with very limited
talent. Wins over Mich St
and ranked Illinois mean
a lot in my book. So, let's
see what happens with
them. I think you're
gonna be surprised.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

maybe comprehension isn't your strong suit - I said it's an example to show that average kenpom means nothing.

And I pointed out that that statement is kinda dumb. If this Pitt team played that first schedule all at neutral sites their over/under for wins would be right around 6.5. If this Pitt team played that second schedule all at neutral sites their over/under for wins would be right around 6.5. Just because you don't understand the math doesn't mean that it isn't the math.

And you understand that the three game road trip included a conference game that we had nothing to do with scheduling, right? We played two non-conference road games, and one of them was an obligation of the ACC-Big Ten challenge. So we actually scheduled one non-conference road game. Wow, we've never done that before!

And the idea that playing two neutral site games is some sort of high number is silly. In fact when Dixon was the coach we played at least one of them every year, because he wasn't afraid to play Duquesne. And we had lots of other years where we played in event's just like this year with two neutral site games in them. Three neutral site games in a season! Woah, stop the presses!

I'd remind you that in 2015 we played, back to back, basically a road game in Hawaii, and then a road game and two neutral site games in Hawaii, and then we came back and played Indiana on the road, and then we played Duquesne at Consol. Six in a row! How did that ever happen?

 

[Wanstash21]

And I pointed out that that statement is kinda dumb. If this Pitt team played that first schedule all at neutral sites their over/under for wins would be right around 6.5. If this Pitt team played that second schedule all at neutral sites their over/under for wins would be right around 6.5. Just because you don't understand the math doesn't mean that it isn't the math.

And you understand that the three game road trip included a conference game that we had nothing to do with scheduling, right? We played two non-conference road games, and one of them was an obligation of the ACC-Big Ten challenge. So we actually scheduled one non-conference road game. Wow, we've never done that before!

And the idea that playing two neutral site games is some sort of high number is silly. In fact when Dixon was the coach we played at least one of them every year, because he wasn't afraid to play Duquesne. And we had lots of other years where we played in event's just like this year with two neutral site games in them. Three neutral site games in a season! Woah, stop the presses!

I'd remind you that in 2015 we played, back to back, basically a road game in Hawaii, and then a road game and two neutral site games in Hawaii, and then we came back and played Indiana on the road, and then we played Duquesne at Consol. Six in a row! How did that ever happen?

If Capel replaced UM and VCU with two home games against 150 Kenpom, we'd have two less losses.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

If Capel replaced UM and VCU with two home games against 150 Kenpom, we'd have two less losses.

VCU isn't actually much better than a 150 team, so maybe or maybe not.

Florida State is currently the closest team we have remaining to 150 left on the schedule (they are 138) and at home we are a 78% favorite. Or if you prefer to look at it the other way, BC is currently 168 and we have an 82% chance to beat them. Split the difference, and it's an 80-20 game. Which teams lose, oddly enough, 20% of the time.

 

[Chescat]

Right now, they are not close to that. The trio of West Virginia, Michigan, and NC State are 20th, 44th, and 51st in the country in pomeroy's efficiency power rankings. In the NET tournament rankings, West Virginia is currently 8th, NC State 54th, and Michigan 80th. Nationally.


These numbers will move, but these 3 teams would smoke the bottom of the acc and probably a big chunk of the middle. The acc this year is terrible.


Im not going to suggest what Northwestern is, but they sit at 69th, which for them, is decent, for now.


Vanderbilt and VCU are not good, that, I agree with.

Of course those teams
would "smoke the bottom
of the ACC, and probably
a big chunk of the
middle." I agree with that.
The point of my post
though was about Pitt
being, as a previous poster
said...."battle tested." He
had some disagreement
on that. I agreed with him
about being "battle tested"
in relation to the lower
ACC teams we would be
playing.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

And in any event, Dixon's teams played neutral site games like that all the time, and not just Duquesne. Hell, we played Duke in a neutral site game. And Alabama. And Memphis. And Western Michigan. And Texas Tech (twice). Washington State. Wichta State. Texas (twice). Indiana. Maryland. Oklahoma State. Michigan. Delaware. Stanford. Cincinnati. San Diego State. Kansas State. Davidson.

But yeah, a neutral site game against VCU is a real challenge.

 

[Wanstash21]

And in any event, Dixon's teams played neutral site games like that all the time, and not just Duquesne. Hell, we played Duke in a neutral site game. And Alabama. And Memphis. And Western Michigan. And Texas Tech (twice). Washington State. Wichta State. Texas (twice). Indiana. Maryland. Oklahoma State. Michigan. Delaware. Stanford. Cincinnati. San Diego State. Kansas State. Davidson.

But yeah, a neutral site game against VCU is a real challenge.

Dixon is 8-1 and has an NET worse than ours.. that shows you how he schedules OOC.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Dixon is 8-1 and has an NET worse than ours.. that shows you how he schedules OOC.

Or does it show you that NET is kind of a dumb ranking system, especially this early in the season?

For instance the NET rankings have the Hoppies 8th, and while they are good it is really unlikely that they are that good. It has Florida Atlantic 13th, and they aren't that good. It has Sam Houston State 23rd, which seems really high. It has UNLV 37th, based I guess mostly on the fact that they are still undefeated, but again, that seems really high.

If we were playing TCU tonight on a neutral court they'd be favored. I think I said this before, but isn't what happens on the court actually more important?

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Or does it show you that NET is kind of a dumb ranking system, especially this early in the season?

For instance the NET rankings have the Hoppies 8th, and while they are good it is really unlikely that they are that good. It has Florida Atlantic 13th, and they aren't that good. It has Sam Houston State 23rd, which seems really high. It has UNLV 37th, based I guess mostly on the fact that they are still undefeated, but again, that seems really high.

If we were playing TCU tonight on a neutral court they'd be favored. I think I said this before, but isn't what happens on the court actually more important?

TCU also had Utah, SMU, Providence, Cal and Iowa on their schedule. It’s not like that’s a “typical” light schedule for Jamie. That’s 5 loseable games that they’ll for 4-1 in and help their seed.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

TCU also had Utah, SMU, Providence, Cal and Iowa on their schedule.

And only one of those games was a home game!