10 possible finishing scenarios, and the likely RPIs, and chance of each occurring:
win, then 4-0 : #19 ( 0.3%)
loss, then 4-0 : #24 ( 0.3%)
win, then 3-1 : #25 ( 1.3%)
loss, then 3-1 : #30 ( 1.1%)
win, then 2-1 : #30 ( 3.9%)
win, then 1-1 : #35 (22.0%)
loss, then 2-1 : #40 ( 3.2%)
win, then 0-1 : #47 (27.5%)
loss, then 1-1 : #48 (18.0%)
loss, then 0-1 : #60 (22.5%)
I think Pitt makes the dance in each of the first nine scenarios, and only sweats if the last scenario happens.
These calculations are based on Pitt facing these four teams in order in the ACCT: Syracuse, UNC, Duke, Virginia. Of course, if there are upsets and we face lesser opponents in any of those rounds, the RPIs go up a little, but not significantly... and the chances of winning go up too.
I think the RPIs will be around those numbers, give or take 2 or 3, with those results... based on RPI wizard.
Our high end is 19... our low end is 60.... But the most likely scenarios have us between 35 and 48. Those are the ones that involve 1 or 2 wins... and they represent about 71% chance of happening.
If our RPI goes to 60-ish with two straight losses.... we're in trouble.
win, then 4-0 : #19 ( 0.3%)
loss, then 4-0 : #24 ( 0.3%)
win, then 3-1 : #25 ( 1.3%)
loss, then 3-1 : #30 ( 1.1%)
win, then 2-1 : #30 ( 3.9%)
win, then 1-1 : #35 (22.0%)
loss, then 2-1 : #40 ( 3.2%)
win, then 0-1 : #47 (27.5%)
loss, then 1-1 : #48 (18.0%)
loss, then 0-1 : #60 (22.5%)
I think Pitt makes the dance in each of the first nine scenarios, and only sweats if the last scenario happens.
These calculations are based on Pitt facing these four teams in order in the ACCT: Syracuse, UNC, Duke, Virginia. Of course, if there are upsets and we face lesser opponents in any of those rounds, the RPIs go up a little, but not significantly... and the chances of winning go up too.
I think the RPIs will be around those numbers, give or take 2 or 3, with those results... based on RPI wizard.
Our high end is 19... our low end is 60.... But the most likely scenarios have us between 35 and 48. Those are the ones that involve 1 or 2 wins... and they represent about 71% chance of happening.
If our RPI goes to 60-ish with two straight losses.... we're in trouble.
