I swear this guys gets off on screwing ACC teams. Somehow a large win took Pitt from team 76 to below that. And he still has Wake as last 4 in. I know bracket matrix shows them all, but does anyone have any good tracking sites?
Post Game Lunardi bracketology
- Thread starter BballinsiderfromPitt
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No he did. Like 3 other bubble teams are taking losses though and Oregon lost. Probably once NET updates tomorrow Pitt will move back up.
Yeah he updated it. He’s a stooge
This updates pretty quickly after games end, and has moved Pitt up quite a bit today!
T-Ranketology 2024 - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
barttorvik.com
This looks about right. Wake a 9 at this point.This updates pretty quickly after games end, and has moved Pitt up quite a bit today!
T-Ranketology 2024 - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.barttorvik.com
So Texas A&M lost by like 35 and Nova by 24. Oregon lost to Cal. Colorado is beating Utah and Seton Hall is beating Butler. Gonzaga is trailing early, but very good day for Pitt once dust settles. KSU, Colorado, and Pitt bubble winners today. Curious if NCST rises in net tomorrow, but GT road win at Miami, Oregon State upset road win, and Cuse win also helps.
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Just shows how dumb Joe is, as if we needed another example.
Texas A&M was the first team out. Gonzaga was the last team in. Joe says the last spot in will probably come down to one or the other. Because apparently the fact that A&M was going to get completely run out of the gym never occurred to him. But even if they just lost by a normal score, which was always the far more likely scenario than them winning (they were an 11-1/2 point underdog), he thought they could actually move UP into the field?
It will be interesting to see what he actually says about them tomorrow, because after a big road loss to a good team he completely dismissed Pitt. Well now A&M lost by a slightly larger margin to what is absolutely a better team, so let's see how far they drop. Or if he even drops them at all.
That one is not an “at this point” thing. It looks like it’s a projection (which I find to be far more interesting and useful).
That being said, it’s kind of a downer that he’s projecting Pitt to be out. That means that Pitt needs to not just win, but win more than expected, to get in.
The problem is that the Mountain West is stealing 6 bids. That's 55% of their league. People always say the bubble is weak. Its not. This is one of the strongest bubbles I can remember. And its because you have a 2 bid league getting 4 extra bids and are basically all locks. Not to mention the metrics are so good for the Big 12, SEC, B10, and BE that all those teams have good NETs and sufficient Q1 wins. Pitt absolutely needs to win out.
Wake is absolutely a lock though. Well almost. They can probably lose a few more and still get in. They're like a 9 seed right now. Not even on the bubble. The problem with guys who do this daily or weekly is that they dont look at it fresh. So they cant justify moving a team up more than a seed line per week. If you look at it fresh, Wake's NET is going to be like 24. 2-5 vs Q1 isnt great but 4-4 vs Q2 and no Q3/4 losses. Lets compare them with current 9 seed (per Bracket Matrix) Northwestern
NET 55
4-6
5-1
4-0
6-1
Now, you can argue that NW deserves a better seed than Wake but 3 seed lines better? No way. Their NET is 30 spots lower and they have a Q4 loss. Wake is pretty safe.
I think this helps Pitt because the committee isnt really going to take a deep dive until that weekend. They remind me of NC State about 5 years ago when only 1 BM person had them in but I did. They werent on the radar all season but they beat a really good Syracuse team in the ACCT and maybe won another good late season game so when you looked at their resume fresh, it was better than the other bubble teams.
I generally agree, but I still think we can (possibly) take a loss, but it, IMO, has to be the last game of the year, and then we immediately get one back in Greensboro.
We win the next 3 we will have a lot of buzz as a bubble team. Possibly 5 Q1 wins.
I think a 2-0 week next week we start showing up in (some) brackets. Last 4 in type team. Not all of them, but some.
Actually a really good bubble day for Pitt yesterday. A lot of SEC bubble teams lost, Butler lost, Cincy lost, Iowa lost.
I think if I had to pick a loss right now, I'd pick @ BC. On the one hand, the road win helps but you never really know how much they factor that in. It would only be a Q2 loss. The justification for picking NC State as our only loss is that it could move our W vs them into Q1 and our L to Q2 but they are so close to 75 that you cant count on that. If you could guarantee me that they'd stay Q1 if they beat us, then yea, I'd probably choose that one but without a guarantee, I'd pick @ BC.
Here's another thing I wanted to mention. There's never been a team left out with a NET of 37 or better. And Lunardi and these idiots have Wake out with a net in the mid 20s, they are out of their minds. Also, teams that get left out in the 30s are probably going to be your mid-majors or a P6 team that's like 18-15, just way too many losses. Wake is very safe. If you are a P6 team with record that isnt real close to .500, you are going to get in if your NET is around 45 or better. If you look at last year, 40 Rutgers and 46 UNC didnt get in but Rutgers had 4 Q3 losses and UNC only had 1 Q1 win. If Pitt loses close at Clemson and can blow out their last 3 opponents, we could get to the mid 40s
Pitt is just a very unique bubble resume. The predictive metrics are pretty high on us. Our BPI probably finishes really close to top 40, where that’s like a 90% indicator you make the field. The NET ranking will end up being fine. But the resume metrics don’t like us as of right now and we have a terrible OOC schedule, but, I sort of feel like we pass the eye test too, not sure if that matters and we actually feel like a team which can win 2 games in the tournament lol.
I know this, if we win Tuesday, the last 3 games, all of which Pitt will be favored (BC maybe a 1 pt dog? Close), will be very interesting.
If Pitt wins out and gets to 22-9 overall and 13-7 in the ACC with a NET most likely right around 35-40, and a 12-2 record in their last 14 games with potentially 5 Quad 1 wins they will be in the tournament no matter what Lunardi or anybody else says. That will be too good of a resume and current record for them to overlook and leave Pitt out.
Yep. Pitt is projected to go 2-2 which probably isn't going to be good enough. 3-1 gives them a shot, and they should be in with a 4-0 finish.
Yep for sure add in Oregon, Villanova, Ole Miss, Texas AM, Utah and Drake to go along with those 3 other teams you mentioned Cincy, Butler, and Iowa so yea very good day for Pitt combined with their big win over Virginia Tech which should help them today when new brackets are out and if they win at Clemson on Tuesday.
NC State goes up to 77 from 79 so need to root for them to beat Florida State on the road on Tuesday to get their NET back up to 75. If that happens and Pitt wins at Clemson Tuesday night you could be looking at 5 Quad 1 wins come Wednesday and all of them being on the road against 4 or the top 6-7 teams in the ACC which should get back into a lot of the brackets come mid to late next week.
NC State has to beat Florida State and one of either UNC or Duke to have any chance of finishing in the top 75, if we're assuming a loss at Pitt.
Does anyone truly believe the committee sits there and studies what Joe Lunardi thinks?
Pitt should jump ahead in some brackets today based on their updated NET of 46 to next four out. They should be ahead of teams like Cincinnati, Iowa, Oregon and even teams like Texas AM, Ole Miss, Butler and Villanova you can make a strong strong case Pitt should be ahead of all 7 of these teams right now.
I'd like to say of course not, but it's hard to believe the amount of exposure he gets wouldn't have some impact on someone like Scott Barnes...
I think there are brighter minds in the room that will lay out the data and even if Barnes is a dolt he will just rubber stamp the presented data.
Pitt has to beat Clemson for sure but they have something else going for them and that is there might not be any teams from the state of PA make the tournament. Duquesne and PSU would have to go crazy in their conference tournaments. Villanova is already 15-12. Only Pitt has the realistic chance to make the NCAA unless I have overlooked some other school. Maybe a not so subtle discussion point for the committee is television viewership. Just throwing it out there even though its a stupid theory.
They dropped 2 with the win, which I dont think should happen even if I dont think they are that good. That said, we need to root like heck for them to win the Sun Belt Tournament because if they go 28-3 in the regular season, there is a 100% chance they get in if they do not. They won at Michigan State. That with their record and decent NET is enough.
I don't think that'd be something they would consider, but it would be a fun bet to make. Also have Drexel and Lehigh as realistic possibilities (at least I assume so, based on conference standings) to win their tournaments and get the auto bids.
Pretty sure Lunardi studies what he's told their most important metrics are then projects accordingly.
And it's unlikely they do win the conference tournament. I mean it's possible, but maybe like a 30% chance.
A lot is going to change over the last few weeks. Pitt needs to go 3-1, not lose at home, then win one in the ACC tourney.
The resume and net will be good enough, and they'll have played their best over the last 2 months of the season. They aren't leaving a team like that out vs. someone who limped down the stretch.
The resume and net will be good enough, and they'll have played their best over the last 2 months of the season. They aren't leaving a team like that out vs. someone who limped down the stretch.
Yes, yesterday was an interesting game. VT had a better resume than some and really needed that game. Pitt coming off an awful game with tape of how to contain Hinson. And Pitt really responded. And then seeing other bubble teams also getting blown out by 20-30, gives further hope that there is so much oddness to the game. Keep Clemson close and then do what they did yesterday @bc, and against fsu and NCST and net likely close to 40.
Supposedly the last 10 games doesn't matter any more than the 1st 10 these days, but, I agree 100%. Why would you leave a team out with a comparable resume who is playing their best basketball during the stretch run??
GCU will win regular season then if either them or Tartleton wins the league they automatically go. As someone who has watched GCU play a ton this year and their conference, this will be what happens
Lunardi Keeps Pitt as the last team after the next 4 out and says no movement will happen on Sunday in the bubble. This guy is a total moron and nothing he says or post has no credibility what so ever. He has Cincy and Drake ahead of Pitt and teams like Oregon and Utah as well which makes no sense. Jerry Palm of CBS has Pitt back on his bubble list after their win yesterday as the next four out. Winning at Clemson Tuesday night will change a lot of this come Wednesday as Pitt will jump most of if not all of these teams in front of them by winning at Clemson for the first time in 10 years which is what they will do. I have a very good feeling about this Clemson game for Pitt it’s time to beat this team and Pitt is due and it will happen Tuesday night.
Absolutely and they should want it more since this game means a lot more to Pitt then it does Clemson. Clemson is safely in the tournament so while it’s an important game for them it’s not a do or die situation. If Pitt plays like they did when they won at Virginia and like they did the 2nd half of the Virginia Tech game they will beat Clemson on Tuesday.
