12. Pittsburgh (4-0)
Last week's ranking: 18thSP+ and FPI rankings: 31st and 39th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 99th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.3%
What the Panthers did in Week 5: off
Why they're ranked here: It's difficult to recognize Pitt at the moment, and not only because the school finally went back to its glorious "Pitt Script" helmets. In the past seven seasons, Pat Narduzzi's Panthers have ranked better than 50th in defensive SP+ five times and better than 50th in offensive SP+ just once. But here they are, ranking sixth in both points per drive and yards per play one third of the way through the season. One problem: They're also 86th in points allowed per drive. They've scored at least 38 points in three games and allowed at least 24 in three.
Pitt has risen from 91st in SP+ last season to 31st so far this year despite the iffy defense, but five of its next seven opponents are 41st or better. Quarterback Eli Holstein and running back Desmond Reid are going to give the Panthers a chance in virtually any game they play this season, but fielding maybe their worst defense since 2016 is going to make virtually any game losable too.
Next test: Week 6 at North Carolina.
