Ranking the importance of each of the rest of our games

[Sean Miller Fan]

1. @ Wake - Q1 win and it helps to possibly eliminate another bubble team

2. Louisville - a Q4 loss could eliminate us. This is a massive game.

3. @ Clemson

4/5 - NC State/FSU - cant afford another Q3 loss. Probably more important to beat FSU because NC State has a shot at Q2 and its more important to avoid losing a Q3 than winning a Q2.

6. @ BC - a Q2 loss doesnt hurt and a road win helps

7. VT - home Q2 game makes this the least important

 

[Pitt2006]

1. @ Wake - Q1 win and it helps to possibly eliminate another bubble team

2. Louisville - a Q4 loss could eliminate us. This is a massive game.

3. @ Clemson

4/5 - NC State/FSU - cant afford another Q3 loss. Probably more important to beat FSU because NC State has a shot at Q2 and its more important to avoid losing a Q3 than winning a Q2.

6. @ BC - a Q2 loss doesnt hurt and a road win helps

7. VT - home Q2 game makes this the least important

1. Lville - a loss and they are NIt bound, particularly if Mizz drops down to quad 4. Can’t overcome two quad 4 losses.

2. @BC. The Net would love a blowout in this road game over a Q2 foe.

3. FSU - avoid Q3 loss.

4. NCST- avoid Q3 loss, possible Q2 as you mentioned.

5. @clemson - would be a better win than at wake and make up for home loss.

6. @wake - a loss isn’t killer.

7. VT - wouldn’t be a killer loss, but win doesn’t help a ton either.

 

[121rum]

I think Wake and Clemson are tied for importance level, splitting them would be so huge. I agree Louisville is number 1

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

They're all important because there is no set schedule of who they can win or lose to make it. It's all a projection by us. They're all important.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

They're all important because there is no set schedule of who they can win or lose to make it. It's all a projection by us. They're all important.

The correct answer. Play your best and let the chips fall where they may. Nobody knows what's going to happen with so many games left for all parties.

 

[snaphook297]

1. @ Wake - Q1 win and it helps to possibly eliminate another bubble team

2. Louisville - a Q4 loss could eliminate us. This is a massive game.

3. @ Clemson

4/5 - NC State/FSU - cant afford another Q3 loss. Probably more important to beat FSU because NC State has a shot at Q2 and its more important to avoid losing a Q3 than winning a Q2.

6. @ BC - a Q2 loss doesnt hurt and a road win helps

7. VT - home Q2 game makes this the least important

Thanks from all of us for your cogent analysis

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

1. Lville - a loss and they are NIt bound, particularly if Mizz drops down to quad 4. Can’t overcome two quad 4 losses.

2. @BC. The Net would love a blowout in this road game over a Q2 foe.

3. FSU - avoid Q3 loss.

4. NCST- avoid Q3 loss, possible Q2 as you mentioned.

5. @clemson - would be a better win than at wake and make up for home loss.

6. @wake - a loss isn’t killer.

7. VT - wouldn’t be a killer loss, but win doesn’t help a ton either.

Lou - you can certainly make a case that its the most important. I went back and forth on it. A loss in this one and winning out definitely COULD eliminate us especially if Mizzou drops to Q4. I think if I had to choose, I take the Q1 roadie at Wake though because we need Q1s, its another road W, and it pushes down a fellow bubble team. So its a 3 for 1

BC - no. Yes, a road blowout could skyrocket our NET but we probably arent going to blow them out. Post is basically an elite college big and we made Efton Reid and DJ Turner look like HOFers. BC has talent. This isnt your dad's BC team. And losing a Q2 doesnt hurt.

Wake/Clem - you ranked them too low. We are in desperate need for Q1s.

 

[ChiefJusticeMarshall]

I think Wake is #1 because as SMF said, not only another Q1 road win, but you essentially have a chance to knock out Wake. It is why I think the VT game at home is also important, for the same knock out issue.

 

[Pitt2006]

I like meaningful basketball convos in mid feb. but we got to take care of Lville this weekend. I could see a slow start, but they should be favored by double digits. 13 per Torvik…only bad things can happen this weekend.

 

[docpanther26]

Well in the sport of it, it makes it fun to project. Not many out there figured we would get by Virginia and still have these conversations.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

1. @ Wake - Q1 win and it helps to possibly eliminate another bubble team

2. Louisville - a Q4 loss could eliminate us. This is a massive game.

3. @ Clemson

4/5 - NC State/FSU - cant afford another Q3 loss. Probably more important to beat FSU because NC State has a shot at Q2 and its more important to avoid losing a Q3 than winning a Q2.

6. @ BC - a Q2 loss doesnt hurt and a road win helps

7. VT - home Q2 game makes this the least important

They are all important.

Any home losses will really hurt.

 

[LaRocka2012]

Agreed mostly. Bottom line is they can afford to lose to 1 of Wake and Clemson and 1 of NC State, VT, FSU.

Bare minimum is 5-2 + Two ACC tournament wins = 23-11 and they’re likely in.

 

[ChiefJusticeMarshall]

I think barring complete collapse by teams....they are taking at least 5 ACC teams despite all the narratives.
UNC, Duke, UVa, Clemson. Which leaves Wake, Pitt, VT mostly fighting for the 5th slot. That is why I rank Wake and VT games at the top, because they while they are not play in games, but they could be.

 

[Pitt2009]

It’s crazy how there is a major difference between winning/losing to the 135th ranked team vs the 136th ranked team. Makes very little sense.

 

[Pitt2006]

It’s crazy how there is a major difference between winning/losing to the 135th ranked team vs the 136th ranked team. Makes very little sense.

Maybe, but look at the net rankings and see how few q3 and q4 losses the tourney teams have. They typically don’t or have 1-2 max.

St. Mary’s has 2 quad 3 losses (net 14), Miss state is next team with more than one bad loss (1 q3 and 1q4, net 34), nova has 3 q3 losses but is 8-8 in q1/2 (net 38), Texas a&m has 3 q3 losses but 5 q1 wins, etc. so if Pitt gets more q1 wins they will move up, but in the top 40 of Net, those are the lone teams with multiple bad losses (more than 1 q3 or a q3 and q4). Good teams typically don’t lose the q3/4 games.

 

[Pitt2009]

Maybe, but look at the net rankings and see how few q3 and q4 losses the tourney teams have. They typically don’t or have 1-2 max.

St. Mary’s has 2 quad 3 losses (net 14), Miss state is next team with more than one bad loss (1 q3 and 1q4, net 34), nova has 3 q3 losses but is 8-8 in q1/2 (net 38), Texas a&m has 3 q3 losses but 5 q1 wins, etc. so if Pitt gets more q1 wins they will move up, but in the top 40 of Net, those are the lone teams with multiple bad losses (more than 1 q3 or a q3 and q4). Good teams typically don’t lose the q3/4 games.

I agree with what you’re saying but my point is that losing to the 135th ranked team on the road is not a bad loss while losing to the 136th ranked team is. Losing to Delaware (135) vs losing to UNCG (136) is a big metric point.

 

[Pitt666]

1. Lville - a loss and they are NIt bound, particularly if Mizz drops down to quad 4. Can’t overcome two quad 4 losses.

2. @BC. The Net would love a blowout in this road game over a Q2 foe.

3. FSU - avoid Q3 loss.

4. NCST- avoid Q3 loss, possible Q2 as you mentioned.

5. @clemson - would be a better win than at wake and make up for home loss.

6. @wake - a loss isn’t killer.

7. VT - wouldn’t be a killer loss, but win doesn’t help a ton either.

So in retrospect, I would have put VT higher as they were possibly a threat to make a late season run. Winning at Wake and Clemson were always long shots. Our net may go up tomorrow. I did not account for a killer wake blowout, but I’d be shocked if they dropped more than 1-2 in Net tomorrow. The Net would love a blowout at BC. Seriously. Pitt may lose, but if there was ever a time for a 15-20 point road win, it is Saturday. Win out. Get to 12-8 and the 6th seed. Win two games in ACC tourney.

 

[Pitt666]

1. Lville - a loss and they are NIt bound, particularly if Mizz drops down to quad 4. Can’t overcome two quad 4 losses.

2. @BC. The Net would love a blowout in this road game over a Q2 foe.

3. FSU - avoid Q3 loss.

4. NCST- avoid Q3 loss, possible Q2 as you mentioned.

5. @clemson - would be a better win than at wake and make up for home loss.

6. @wake - a loss isn’t killer.

7. VT - wouldn’t be a killer loss, but win doesn’t help a ton either.

This is why I put BC at 2 after Lville. The 7th road win. I didn’t think they would win by 25, but the Net will go up.

 

[Blair_45]

This is why I put BC at 2 after Lville. The 7th road win. I didn’t think they would win by 25, but the Net will go up.

Yea for sure. Man were Boeheim Boozer and Hancock all talking good about Pitt in the postgame on the ACC Network. They all said Pitt passes the eye test and should be in the NCCA Tournament and the 7 road wins will help. I gotta agree I think if Pitt wins the last two games with FSU and NC State at home and wins one game in the ACC Tournament and plays the 2nd game very tough against a good team even if they don’t win I think they are in. 22-11 should be enough at this point to get Pitt at least to Dayton for a 2nd straight year.